Wednesday, December 14, 2011

australian masters

can't get too much enthusiasm for this event which starts tomorrow... still enjoying the win on Quiros last week which I didn't blog about as only just got my bets on before it started; shame as would have been a nice 40/1 winner for the blog! (mentioned it on OLBG if proof is needed!)

AQ is my fav golfer and notched his 6th win on tour which have all made my pockets bulge as I back him so often

anyway, this event sees Donald fresh from his money lists triumphs and his US PGA golfer of the year award - whether he will have enough oomph or desire to win here is debatable but his odds are a joke so that's a huge avoid

Ogilvy & Allenby may well come to blows in the car park if they continue their little tiff from a few weeks ago - hard to tell from distance but no surprise to see Allenby moaning and my money's on good guy Geoff to win that particular battle (they claim to be best of pals again)

Chalmers is a reasonable win bet at 14/1 or so as he looks to win a superb hatrick of big events down here this spring/summer > very hard to do (although Allenby did 6 yrs ago) but he has the confidence and his game should really be suited by this short course

fast greens and plenty of bunkers around so the neat, tidy and short-game wizard players should come to the fore here > ignoring the top 3 in the market leaves Chalmers and not many others really..Senden may go well but is one who finds it so hard to win; Poults could do with a good finish to his year and is hinting at some form recently

good chance of some storms and if the wind blows then Ogilvy should benefit as he is such a good iron player in the breeze; being his 'home'course too should help so perhaps he's worth a small bet too

Pilkadaris and Blizard at 130 and 140 may attract some small trading dough from me as may Fowler who has done so well on the Seniors tour (260 is a good trading price) - Summers at 330 is another who has a bit of ability and may feature early

summary > small win bets on Ogilvy & Chalmers and some trading dough on the others

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

australian pga golf

off to queensland this week for the PGA down under... brief tips are >

OGILVY > top effort last wk, won this and 2nd previously and no reason why he cant crack on and win again as back in form and class act > 10 win bet
O'HERN > place shout and although odds arent great at 17 is playing well and was tied 4th 2 wks back

K-T KIM > 36 betfair > played great last week in the PC and has bottle and ability... expect him to do well and cracking price

trading > Blizard 240, Fraser 75 and Pilkadaris 210 > all have some form and look to have a chance of starting well and those prices attract...

Tuesday, November 08, 2011


horse-racing 8 nov

120 tecktal > 2nd 7/2
150 rossbrin > 1st 11/4
220 marvo e/w > x 
250 australia day > 1st 1/4
320 spectait > x
350 icanseeclearlynow e/w > 3rd 20/1

100 simply ned > 1st 4/9
130 glasson lad > x
200 bhaltair > 3rd 6/1 
230 border reiver > 3rd 6/1
300 high hoylander > 3rd 6/1
330 authentic act > x
400 claude carter > 1st 9/4

110 florafern > x
140 run to fly > 1st 15/8
210 mister dillon > 1st 100/30
240 river rhapsody > 2nd 100/30
310 folie a deax > x
340 chicklemix > 2nd 8/1
410 rich maid > x

20 selections
18 win bets > 6 winners (33%)
2 e/w bets > 1 place (20/1)
daily profit > -3%
daily ROI > -3%
average odds > 10.69 (over 9/1)

Saturday, November 05, 2011

churchill downs horse racing

cracking Breeder's Cup meeting tonight in the US featuring plenty of european raiders and home-based talent as well as So You Think originally from Australia.. Goldikova and Sarafina also involved in a superb card so check the forum and competition on OLBG >

competition here >

good luck!

footie multibets week 10

A > singles
ipswich 9/11, middlesbro 4/6, afc wimbledon 18/19, st mirren +0 AH @ 21/20, arbroath 5/6, morecambe 17/16
5pts each

B > draw trixie
hull  v west ham 40/17
tranmere v colchester 9/4
bradford v cheltenham 12/5
2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6
boro 4/6
notts co 4/6
liverpool 1/3
crawley 4/6
forest green 4/5
montrose 8/11
any 5, all 6 from 6 at 1pt

D > correct scores
newcastle v everton > 1-1 @ 6/1
arsenal v wba > 2-2 @ 22/1
aston villa v norwich > 1-2 @ 16/1
blackburn v chelsea > 2-3 @ 25/1
liverpool v swansea > 1-0 @ 13/2
man utd v sunderland > 1-1 @ 12/1
qpr v man city > 1-4 @ 18/1
bolton v stoke > 2-2 @ 14/1
fulham v spurs > 2-1 @ 11/1
wolves v wigan > 2-1 @ 8/1
1pt win each

E > goals 
luton v fleetwood under @ 11/10
hull west ham overs @ 11/10
crewe torquay unders @ 21/20
5pts each

Thursday, November 03, 2011

OLBG > free site that pays over £3k per month!

OLBG is an amazing betting site > combines forums with a Free Tipster Competition and plenty of challenges where you can win cash.. and the whole site is FREE!

the forums are full of detailed analysis and comment - some terrific insight and detailed appraisals of bets and no idiots on there telling what they backed after the event; it's also free of waffle and point-scoring - a refreshing change these days to actually have some reasoned analysis which all helps in the battle to beat the bookies!

the tipster competition is again free - you have a mythical £1k each month and this is topped up by £100 daily so you have plenty of funds to bet with.. it's all virtual so you win/lose purely on 'paper' but there are loads of tipping leagues and if you win or finish well in these you can real cash - they pay a total each month of over £3k which is staggering for a free site

and there's no catch! obviously they want new members and want those members to open new accounts with bookmakers or exchanges but that's the same everywhere and it's totally optional.. so there is nothing to lose by joining up!

there are plenty of monthly competitions where you can also win a free bet - and occasionally there are bigger competitions that pay out much more (like Cheltenham when there is £1k up for grabs in total!)

some of the longer-term members have won over £2k!

there are also plenty of challenges where you test your knowledge and try to beat the other tipsters; most of these have cash prizes too and for example, picking the correct scores in a couple of champions league games could net you £15 - it's that simple!

* have a look and if you aren't a member then join up!

this link takes you to the site >

OLBG website

here's the facebook site > 

OLBG on facebook

here's the twitter page >

OLBG on twitter

good luck!

Sunday, October 30, 2011

melbourne cup thoughts

MELBOURNE CUP - Flemington
a few thoughts from me for the big race on tuesday...
1 Americain (barrier 15) > justifiable fav, great warm-up win, will see trip out, won last yr - 58k big weight though although should be able to handle it, bit of rain will help but a class act
2 Jukebox Jury 6 great form (france/irish st l)  and should be best value, possible winner but inexperience may hurt, likely to front-run and could get pipped in the straight 
3 Dunaden 13 should stay on well and can make frame - won geelong cup impressively last wk, won over trip, beat americain twice and better off here weight wise - could be the one if ridden well and times the finish right
4 Drunken Sailor 8 has won over this trip (1 of 3 who have) and should stay well but not much form coming into this
5 Glass Harmonium 23 cracking win saturday when made all and held on well - will probably lead here but doubt can hold this lot off
6 Manighar 21 consistent and should go well but perhaps 4th at best, not great draw
7 Unusual Suspect 7 - ran well in caulfield cup but hit traffic and 6th could have been much better
8 Fox Hunt 19 good form line thru others and good value outsider; way better off weight-wise than ebor and should reverse some placings with others here so price looks good
9 Lucas Cranach 11 vg form lines indeed but hard to call whether will hit top form which will be needed/ great draw / 50% career win rate
10 Mourayan 14 good run saturday when 2nd in mackinnon and previously beat niwot carrying 58k... well backed here in OZ
11 Precedence 2 in no form at all and hard to like
12 Red Cadeaux 16 under the radar and could well be a sneaky as has got good form lines, the rain will help bigtime; better off at weights with JJ from irish st leger when ran well (followed fame & glory and then had to work hard to get on terms)
13 Hawk Island 18 would want rain
14 Illo 1 Bart C's best chance probably and he has got gates 1&2 which helps - good 3rd to americain recently and few K's better off
15 Lost In The Moment 3 no warmup races, inconsistent altho good form from goodwood cup and ebor
16 Modun 5 big horse needs rain
17 At First Sight 10 good 2nds in bendigo cup and naturalism and has chance but not impressive enough for me
18 Moyenne Corniche 17 been backed with a big bet today here, skipped warm-up race at weekend, won ebor which has proved a really good race but could be best of the rest as cant see making the top 4
19 Saptapadi 22 no form and not much chance
20 Shamrocker 24 poor form poor draw ignore
21 The Verminator 4 not given much hope here
22 Tullamore 12 skipped w/end and has run some good races, good draw, decent value outsider
23 Niwot 9 the 7yr old won lexus on saturday (lexus is usually good form line to MC) catapulting up the market but big ask to win this too although good stayer - should get good position from start as has some slowies around, low weight, chances as has won over trip and 3 course wins too, best home hope - well backed today here
24 Older Than Time 20 out of form/outclassed
> after crossing out a few who I really don't think will win it still leaves a dozen or so who could... really open race this year and plenty that can take this if they are on top form and get a bit of luck... the draw and choice of jockey will be reasonably important this year I think and my slight preference is for those who can definitely handle the trip
* already on dunaden at both 40 and 21 so happy with current sub 10 price; also on jukebox jury at 33 so pleased to see that at 12 or so
* niwot has thrust itself into contention and off a very light weight should compete but have inkling for fox hunt at a good price still
* americain should no doubt be contesting and top 3 looks reasonably obvious and really interesting to see if dunaden can get past  in the straight and whether JJ and glass harmonium will push them along fast enough to draw some of the sting out of the late finishers

currently think

difficult to judge but could be value >

should be popular but not quite ticking enough boxes for me >

decent longer shots >

> thus, Americain isn't much value at his price, DUNADEN is the one I'm on and liking a lot, Niwot is popular and should get in amongst them and perhaps Tullamore could make up the first 4... can see it being really close and not much covering the first half dozen for sure.. a good jockey will be crucial in this tight contest

Saturday, October 29, 2011

footie multibets week 9

A > singles >

QPR +1 AH at 27/20, WBA +0.5 AH @ 17/20, Palace @ 7/4, Forest 7/5, Shrewsbury 10/11, St Johnstone 16/11, Cowdenbeath 13/10

5pt singles

B > draw trixie >

Yeovil Huddersfd 3/1
Bury Stevenage 12/5
Wigan Fulham 23/10

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6 >

Shrewsbury 10/11
Cheltenham 4/6
West Ham evens
Sheff Utd 4/7
Forfar 4/5
Man City -1 @ 1/2

any5, all 6 from 6 at 1pt

D > correct scores >

chelsea v arsenal > 1-1 @ 15/2
everton v man utd > 1-1 @ 13/2
man city v wolves > 4-0 @ 11/1
norwich v blackburn > 2-2 @ 15/1
sunderland v villa > 1-2 @ 12/1
swansea v bolton > 2-1 @ 8/1
wigan v fulham > 1-3 @ 22/1
wba v liverpool > 2-2 @ 16/1 
spurs v qpr > 1-1 @ 9/1
stoke v newcastle > 2-1 @ 17/2

1pt each

E > goals >

derby v pompey overs @ 21/20
colchester notts co unders @ evens
dunfermline dundee utd overs @ 9/10

5pts each

derby day (spring carnival)

derby day in the sunny state of victoria.. flemington racecourse and a massive card today

galah wins the first by a nose - saved a lot of stress for punters that one as some big bets had been posted and galah was part of many doubles and trebels

looking forward to seeing ATLANTIC JEWEL in race 3 today > got on at 1.4 and has been hit hard and now 1.32 on betfair... class act and she should handle the slightly longer trip and weight with no problem and make it 5 from 5

9 group races and almost $5m in prize money so a huge card.. plenty of good races to come

race 2 coming up > MIDNIGHT MARTINI at 8.0 looks the value

race 4 should see SEPOY win easily

race 5 has SOUTHERN SPEED amongst the principals

race 6 is the Victoria Derby and sees the fav Manawanui easing slightly as doubts about the trip remain; Induna is popular and has come in to 5.0 - I like the chances of Niagara as well and Zabeelionaire is worth a look at 26

race 7 sees More Joyous as fav but I like MOSHEEN at 4.8

races 8 & 9 look fairly open and none catch the eye too much

Monday, October 24, 2011

multibets update

8 weeks in now and these fun/serious bets are taking shape... need to adjust my theories slightly to take advantage of better prices and gut feel etc...

summary of results so far >

A > singles > 10/21, loss of 6.33pts > struggling a bit but looking for prices around evens so prepared to have a not-so-good strike rate... just need to look at these a bit more and try to get in profit which I usually am with singles each season

B > draw trixies > 1/8 (6/24 draws) and 125.06pts profit > mainly a fun bet but can pay really well if they all come in - have had 1 successful one so well in profit so far this yr

C > perm 5 from 6 > 0/8 for all 6 and 2/8 for '5 from 6', loss of 19.64pts > almost cracked this but not quite... couple of decent 5 froms have paid ok but need a bit of luck as I'm going for better odds here; the payout is worthwhile if you pick as many as possible nearer evens obviously - might start going for any I like at odds against as although it seems harder it actually isn't if you pick well!

D > correct scores > 7/68 which isn't great but have been going for some 12 and 14/1 shots rather than boring 1-0 or 1-1 all the time - loss of only 4.71pts so far so have almost managed to break even in this area which is hard to do with the paltry odds offered

E > goals > 13/24, strike rate 54%, profit 19.97pts > picking 3 each wk and looking for bets around evens rather than 1.6 obvious shouts... have done well with getting above 50% which means a profit so far - have staked 15pts each wk so 120pts staked in total and return of almost 140 so ROI of 16.6% which is what it's all about for me

Saturday, October 22, 2011

footie multibets week 8

A > singles (8/19, strike rate 42%, profit -4.5pts)

bolton 13/10, ipswich 11/10, hull 4/5, cowdenbeath 5/6

5pts each

B > draw trixie (1/7 trixies, 6/21 draws, profit +133.06pts)

fulham everton 12/5
blackpool forest  5/2
huddersfd preston 3/1

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6 (0/7, 1 5from6, profit -23.71pts)

hull 4/5
chelsea 2/5
swindon 11/13
fleetwood 5/12
mansfield 8/15
spartans 8/15

any 5, all 6 from 6 at 1pt = 7pts

D > correct scores (6/58, profit -3.21pts)

wolves v swansea > 1-2 @ 14/1
villa v wba > 2-2 @ 15/1
bolton v sunderland > 2-0 @ 23/2
liverpool v norwich > 3-1 @ 12/1
arsenal v stoke > 2-1 @ 15/2
newcastle v wigan > 2-0 @ 7/1
fulham v everton > 2-1 @ 19/2
qpr v chelsea > 1-3 @ 23/2
utd v city > 1-0 @ 9/1
blackburn v spurs > 1-2 @ 15/2

1pt win each

E >  goals (11/21, strike rate 52%, profit 13.09pts)

liverpool norwich unders 13/10
hull watford overs 43/40
oldham wycombe overs evens

5pts each

Saturday, October 15, 2011

footie multibets week 7

A > singles (7/16, profit -4.85pts)

bury @ 13/5, crawley 4/5, wba 11/10

5pts each

B > draw trixie (1/9, 5/18 draws, profit +140.06pts)

cardiff v ipswich 13/5
yeovil v carlisle 12/5
accrington v swindon 5/2

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6 (0/6, 1 5from6, profit -16.71pts)

west ham 11/13
huddersfd 10/11
cowdenbeath 8/11
annan ath 4/5
mk dons 8/11
chelsea 2/5

any 5 all 6 from 6 = 7 bets at 1pt

D > correct scores (4/56, profit -20.0pts)

liverpool v utd > 2-1 at 11/1
man city v villa > 3-0 at 10/1
norwich v swansea > 1-2 at 11/1
qpr v blackburn > 2-2 at 16/1
stoke v fulham > 1-2 at 13/1
wigan v bolton > 1-1 at 6/1
chelsea v everton > 3-1 at 12/1
wba v wolves > 2-0 at 19/2
arsenal v sunderland > 1-0 at 7/1 
newcastle v spurs > 2-1 at 11/1

1pt each

E > goals (10/18, profit +18.92pts)

rochdale colchester overs @ 5/6
watford palace overs @ evens
boro millwall overs @ 21/20

5pts each

short-term bets.. update 2

this weekend games sees these odds (middle and long)

liverpool 21/10, draw 12/5
villa 19/2, draw 43/10
swans 5/2, draw 27/11
blackburn 62/17, draw
fulham 11/4, draw 40/17
bolton 11/5, draw 40/17
everton 10, draw 4

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

mcgladrey classic (us pga tour)

the fall series continues this week with the McGLADREY CLASSIC in georgia - a par 70 course at 7000 or so yards which isn't the toughest but you have to stick it in the right place so it should suit the shorter neater players and this is where most of the focus is this week

plenty of tour pros live here so will be a local event for a few of them - usually makes them perform a shot or two better with local knowledge and some good fan backing

quite a few playing for their cards obviously and I like some of the recent efforts of a few players where they have sneaked into the top 10 or shot a really low one


adam HADWIN > young canadian has featured in the top 10 recently a couple of times and looks a useful player - likewise, compatriot McQUILLAN has been in the top 10 a couple of times in recent events too so worth a look

McKENZIE & BERTSCH both showed some form last week and both need to move up the rankings a bit to get their cards sorted so can expect them to be worth a back to lay perhaps

bud CAULEY looks to be a very good prospect too and he's another worth checking although odds already look a bit too low (shows the regard people have for him however)

regarding potential winners, CASEY warmed up well last wk which was on the back of a win in Asia so he may be a decent bet here, 38 is enough for me (betfair); there's a few who fit the bill and have ties locally in some way so SNEDEKER and ZACH J look likely to feature so will back both of those...

Sneds can be a pain as usually plays poorly when I back him so let's break that run.. 28 betfair; as for Zach, it would be amiss not to go for the local resident who usually manages to find a win at some point when playing consistently well.. hasn't got one yet this yr on main tour so this could be good timing -12th here last yr and not bad value at 27 betfair

C HOWELL and ALLENBY will presumably play fairly well also and might be worth a few dollars but perhaps KIRK at 65 is better value than Howell.. also looking at Hunter HAAS at 140 and HADWIN at 180 as decent shouts

might dabble on some of these if they look in good nick.. will probably start with Casey, Johnson, Sneds, Haas and Hadwin and keep an eye on Allenby, Kirk and co

trading > will go with Mackenzie at 260, Bertsch at 250, Stankowski has shown a bit recently and 450 isn't bad - looking to lay these guys if they go well initially

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

bodugi > win cash!

bodugi is a very simple idea... it's a community betting game whereby you can join a few others to bet on the outcome of either single or multiple football games, or horse racing meetings... and win cash!

bodugi obviously take a cut but the entry fees from the players (typically 8-12 in a game) are pooled and the winner takes all!

thus if you have 10 players paying £5 each into the pot.. there is £40 for the winner

to win you just need to score the most points... and you have odds on your selections as normal so the more riskier the bet, the more points you get if successful

very easy and good fun as you can play a horse card for a fiver and could win a decent pot!

have a look at and join in some of the games on the go... here is one we are playing tonight > 

international football on bodugi tuesday 11th Oct

Saturday, October 01, 2011

one ref?

why do they still persist with just the one referee in one of the biggest most high-profile sports in the world?!

I'm sure they can afford a 2nd or 3rd one in the top leagues bearing in mind the £££millions involved

most other sports now have a bunch of refs/umpires keeping an eye on everything and surely that would help in those critical moments that make/break games...

just an idea.

short-term stats.. update

EPL > this week looks like these to see how they go on paper betting

wigan 5/1 draw 3/1
blackburn 15/2 draw 4/1
norwich 21/1 win! draw 8/1
wba 13/5 draw 12/5
newc 39/19 draw 23/10
bolton 13/2 draw 10/3
qpr 3/1 draw5/2
stoke 15/8 draw 23/10
gooners 13/5 draw 5/2

these are all the longer odds for these matches.. will watch and see after last wk when nearly all the bankers came in.. one of those wks when good odds for the outsiders but unlikely so worth avoiding - this wk is much messier which is good..

footie multibets week 6

A > singles (6/14, profit -3.19pts)

Soton 4/6, Stranraer 4/5

5pts each

B > draw trixie (1/5 trixies, 4/15 draws, profit +148.06pts)

Everton Liverpool 9/4
Reading Boro 12/5
Sheff Utd Charlton 5/2

2pt trixie

c > perm 5 from 6 (0/5, 1 5from6, profit -9.71pts)

MK Dons evens
City -1 AH 5/8
Crawley 4/11
West Ham 22/19
Stranraer 4/5
Queens Park 3/4

1pt 5from6 all 6 = 7pts

D > correct scores (2/46, profit -28.25pts)

Everton v Liverpool > 1-1 at 6/1
Aston Villa v Wigan > 2-0 at 29/4
Blackburn v Man City > 2-3 at 28/1
Man Utd v Norwich > 2-0 at 7/1
Sunderland v WBA > 1-2 at 12/1
Wolves v Newcastle > 1-1 at 6/1
Bolton v Chelsea > 0-1 at 7/1
Fulham v QPR > 3-1 at 17/1
Swansea v Stoke > 2-1 at 10/1
Tottenham v Arsenal > 2-2 at 14/1

1pt each

E > goals (9/15, profit +23.92pts)

Villa Wigan overs evens
Ipswich Brighton unders 11/10
Sheff Utd Charlton unders evens

5pts each

Monday, September 26, 2011

bill haas great shot (tour championship)

here's that shot!

haas making a par on 17... $11m on the line!! <

(thanks to pga tour)

Saturday, September 24, 2011

footie multibets week 5

this week's selections below with the current season-to-date performance updated in brackets > trixies are way up thanks to the successful 3/3 draws in the first wk; perm 5 from 6 had a line win last week so that's doing ok and will be very profitable if I nail all 6

correct scores down as expected, singles almost break-even and goals bets doing well surprisingly

this week's picks are as follows:

A > singles

mk dons at 10/9, blackburn +0.5 AH at evens, sheff utd evens

5pts win

B > draw trixie

wigan v spurs 14/5
doncaster v palace 40/17
sheff wed exeter 3/1

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6

mk dons 10/9
charlton 8/13
huddersfield 1/2
preston 8/11
scunthorpe 4/6
shef utd evens

1pt any 5 and all 6 makes 7pts staked

D > correct scores

arsenal v bolton > 2-0 at 7/1
chelsea v swansea > 1-0 at 7/1
liverpool v wolves > 1-1 at 17/2
newcastle v blackburn > 1-1 at 13/2
wba v fulham > 2-1 at 9/1
wigan v tottenham > 1-1 at 13/2
stoke v man u  > 1-3 at 13/1
qpr v villa  > 1-2 at 23/2
norwich v sunderland > 2-2 at 14/1

1pt each

E > goals

boro ipswich under 5/4
qpr villa over 11/10

5pts win

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

tour championship / fedex cup

the race for the FEDEX CUP cup culminates this week at East Lakes with The Tour Championship – the field of 30 players are in the hunt for the mega payout of $10m; big money even for these guys… the top 5 currently in the points race all have the incentive of a win here being enough to guarantee them the CUP and all that cash whilst all the others in the field have a crack at winning it but need the field placings to fall kindly to do so

as it stands currently, Simpson is in a great position as he could finish in the top 5 and probably still win the CUP; he can also finish lower and still win if results go well for him
the others in the top 5 can all win it with a victory here but could also win the CUP if they finish 2nd or possibly 3rd in DJ’s case
there’s a good chance for those ranked 6-10 currently as if they won this event and the top 5 all finished out of the frame then they would probably be triumphant - it would take a remarkable set of results for others  to win because it would require the top 5 all to finish poorly and it’s doubtful that any one of the 5 will not make the frame (jim furyk did win the fedex cup from 11th last yr with his final event win but this year it looks more likely to be a current top 5 points player who will take the spoils)

anyway, here are the points currently for the top 5 >
Player Fedex points
Webb Simpson 5261
Dustin Johnson 3841
Justin Rose 3748
Luke Donald 3625
Matt Kuchar 3349
simpson is obviously in pole position as he can finish 5th and probably still win – with his recent form that looks likely and doesn’t look bad at 4.6 on betfair for the title; donald is 4.7 and these 2 look likely > this course suits donald and with his consistent good form all year he could well finish in the top 3 and take the glory. rose is 15 and looks better value then kuchar at 11 for me as rose hits some golden streaks and with his win last wk he looks primed to make a late run at this title; kuchar collects top 10s but not sure of his ‘winning’ ability yet – would be a great time to step up a level for sure for him but trading-wise I would go with rose
so no great outsiders for the FEDEX title for me and not much value in the favs but donald could cap an extremely consistent year and consolidate his world no 1 ranking with a top 2 finish here and the over $11m dollar total paycheque too – don’t often back him myself as he is doesn’t win as many as he should (or for a world no1) and hasn’t won many on this tour but can’t deny he is thereabouts all the time
right – tour championship itself and after a poor effort last wk I might go hunting bigger numbers this week… not much value in the favs and although i think donald will be top 2 or top 3 I’m not impressed with the 7.8 on offer to back him… if I back him in the fedex market then I will skip this one as the fedex price is a few points lower but has ‘probably’ less people likely to take it (the tour championship has 30 possible winners whereas fedex has 5 probably winners!)
rose isn’t bad value at 23 hoping he continues his streak (remember that hot spell last yr when he was clearly the best for a fortnight on the us tour)
yang at 55 is value.. consistently under-rated and has a string of decent perfs this yr too
of the shorter prices then watney/scott both look to have potential with good track form etc
woodland at 34 could be useful as his so long and light rough will help > see also jason day for that point… both of these could be due a really good week although day at just 21 isn’t huge value
you could make a case for all of these players obviously but bearing in mind the paycheque/status of the event/fedex cup.. adding in very recent form and the course then I will probably plump for rose, day, woodland and yang as above and look at donald in the fedex winner market