Sunday, October 30, 2011

melbourne cup thoughts

MELBOURNE CUP - Flemington
a few thoughts from me for the big race on tuesday...
1 Americain (barrier 15) > justifiable fav, great warm-up win, will see trip out, won last yr - 58k big weight though although should be able to handle it, bit of rain will help but a class act
2 Jukebox Jury 6 great form (france/irish st l)  and should be best value, possible winner but inexperience may hurt, likely to front-run and could get pipped in the straight 
3 Dunaden 13 should stay on well and can make frame - won geelong cup impressively last wk, won over trip, beat americain twice and better off here weight wise - could be the one if ridden well and times the finish right
4 Drunken Sailor 8 has won over this trip (1 of 3 who have) and should stay well but not much form coming into this
5 Glass Harmonium 23 cracking win saturday when made all and held on well - will probably lead here but doubt can hold this lot off
6 Manighar 21 consistent and should go well but perhaps 4th at best, not great draw
7 Unusual Suspect 7 - ran well in caulfield cup but hit traffic and 6th could have been much better
8 Fox Hunt 19 good form line thru others and good value outsider; way better off weight-wise than ebor and should reverse some placings with others here so price looks good
9 Lucas Cranach 11 vg form lines indeed but hard to call whether will hit top form which will be needed/ great draw / 50% career win rate
10 Mourayan 14 good run saturday when 2nd in mackinnon and previously beat niwot carrying 58k... well backed here in OZ
11 Precedence 2 in no form at all and hard to like
12 Red Cadeaux 16 under the radar and could well be a sneaky as has got good form lines, the rain will help bigtime; better off at weights with JJ from irish st leger when ran well (followed fame & glory and then had to work hard to get on terms)
13 Hawk Island 18 would want rain
14 Illo 1 Bart C's best chance probably and he has got gates 1&2 which helps - good 3rd to americain recently and few K's better off
15 Lost In The Moment 3 no warmup races, inconsistent altho good form from goodwood cup and ebor
16 Modun 5 big horse needs rain
17 At First Sight 10 good 2nds in bendigo cup and naturalism and has chance but not impressive enough for me
18 Moyenne Corniche 17 been backed with a big bet today here, skipped warm-up race at weekend, won ebor which has proved a really good race but could be best of the rest as cant see making the top 4
19 Saptapadi 22 no form and not much chance
20 Shamrocker 24 poor form poor draw ignore
21 The Verminator 4 not given much hope here
22 Tullamore 12 skipped w/end and has run some good races, good draw, decent value outsider
23 Niwot 9 the 7yr old won lexus on saturday (lexus is usually good form line to MC) catapulting up the market but big ask to win this too although good stayer - should get good position from start as has some slowies around, low weight, chances as has won over trip and 3 course wins too, best home hope - well backed today here
24 Older Than Time 20 out of form/outclassed
> after crossing out a few who I really don't think will win it still leaves a dozen or so who could... really open race this year and plenty that can take this if they are on top form and get a bit of luck... the draw and choice of jockey will be reasonably important this year I think and my slight preference is for those who can definitely handle the trip
* already on dunaden at both 40 and 21 so happy with current sub 10 price; also on jukebox jury at 33 so pleased to see that at 12 or so
* niwot has thrust itself into contention and off a very light weight should compete but have inkling for fox hunt at a good price still
* americain should no doubt be contesting and top 3 looks reasonably obvious and really interesting to see if dunaden can get past  in the straight and whether JJ and glass harmonium will push them along fast enough to draw some of the sting out of the late finishers

currently think

difficult to judge but could be value >

should be popular but not quite ticking enough boxes for me >

decent longer shots >

> thus, Americain isn't much value at his price, DUNADEN is the one I'm on and liking a lot, Niwot is popular and should get in amongst them and perhaps Tullamore could make up the first 4... can see it being really close and not much covering the first half dozen for sure.. a good jockey will be crucial in this tight contest

Saturday, October 29, 2011

footie multibets week 9

A > singles >

QPR +1 AH at 27/20, WBA +0.5 AH @ 17/20, Palace @ 7/4, Forest 7/5, Shrewsbury 10/11, St Johnstone 16/11, Cowdenbeath 13/10

5pt singles

B > draw trixie >

Yeovil Huddersfd 3/1
Bury Stevenage 12/5
Wigan Fulham 23/10

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6 >

Shrewsbury 10/11
Cheltenham 4/6
West Ham evens
Sheff Utd 4/7
Forfar 4/5
Man City -1 @ 1/2

any5, all 6 from 6 at 1pt

D > correct scores >

chelsea v arsenal > 1-1 @ 15/2
everton v man utd > 1-1 @ 13/2
man city v wolves > 4-0 @ 11/1
norwich v blackburn > 2-2 @ 15/1
sunderland v villa > 1-2 @ 12/1
swansea v bolton > 2-1 @ 8/1
wigan v fulham > 1-3 @ 22/1
wba v liverpool > 2-2 @ 16/1 
spurs v qpr > 1-1 @ 9/1
stoke v newcastle > 2-1 @ 17/2

1pt each

E > goals >

derby v pompey overs @ 21/20
colchester notts co unders @ evens
dunfermline dundee utd overs @ 9/10

5pts each

derby day (spring carnival)

derby day in the sunny state of victoria.. flemington racecourse and a massive card today

galah wins the first by a nose - saved a lot of stress for punters that one as some big bets had been posted and galah was part of many doubles and trebels

looking forward to seeing ATLANTIC JEWEL in race 3 today > got on at 1.4 and has been hit hard and now 1.32 on betfair... class act and she should handle the slightly longer trip and weight with no problem and make it 5 from 5

9 group races and almost $5m in prize money so a huge card.. plenty of good races to come

race 2 coming up > MIDNIGHT MARTINI at 8.0 looks the value

race 4 should see SEPOY win easily

race 5 has SOUTHERN SPEED amongst the principals

race 6 is the Victoria Derby and sees the fav Manawanui easing slightly as doubts about the trip remain; Induna is popular and has come in to 5.0 - I like the chances of Niagara as well and Zabeelionaire is worth a look at 26

race 7 sees More Joyous as fav but I like MOSHEEN at 4.8

races 8 & 9 look fairly open and none catch the eye too much

Monday, October 24, 2011

multibets update

8 weeks in now and these fun/serious bets are taking shape... need to adjust my theories slightly to take advantage of better prices and gut feel etc...

summary of results so far >

A > singles > 10/21, loss of 6.33pts > struggling a bit but looking for prices around evens so prepared to have a not-so-good strike rate... just need to look at these a bit more and try to get in profit which I usually am with singles each season

B > draw trixies > 1/8 (6/24 draws) and 125.06pts profit > mainly a fun bet but can pay really well if they all come in - have had 1 successful one so well in profit so far this yr

C > perm 5 from 6 > 0/8 for all 6 and 2/8 for '5 from 6', loss of 19.64pts > almost cracked this but not quite... couple of decent 5 froms have paid ok but need a bit of luck as I'm going for better odds here; the payout is worthwhile if you pick as many as possible nearer evens obviously - might start going for any I like at odds against as although it seems harder it actually isn't if you pick well!

D > correct scores > 7/68 which isn't great but have been going for some 12 and 14/1 shots rather than boring 1-0 or 1-1 all the time - loss of only 4.71pts so far so have almost managed to break even in this area which is hard to do with the paltry odds offered

E > goals > 13/24, strike rate 54%, profit 19.97pts > picking 3 each wk and looking for bets around evens rather than 1.6 obvious shouts... have done well with getting above 50% which means a profit so far - have staked 15pts each wk so 120pts staked in total and return of almost 140 so ROI of 16.6% which is what it's all about for me

Saturday, October 22, 2011

footie multibets week 8

A > singles (8/19, strike rate 42%, profit -4.5pts)

bolton 13/10, ipswich 11/10, hull 4/5, cowdenbeath 5/6

5pts each

B > draw trixie (1/7 trixies, 6/21 draws, profit +133.06pts)

fulham everton 12/5
blackpool forest  5/2
huddersfd preston 3/1

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6 (0/7, 1 5from6, profit -23.71pts)

hull 4/5
chelsea 2/5
swindon 11/13
fleetwood 5/12
mansfield 8/15
spartans 8/15

any 5, all 6 from 6 at 1pt = 7pts

D > correct scores (6/58, profit -3.21pts)

wolves v swansea > 1-2 @ 14/1
villa v wba > 2-2 @ 15/1
bolton v sunderland > 2-0 @ 23/2
liverpool v norwich > 3-1 @ 12/1
arsenal v stoke > 2-1 @ 15/2
newcastle v wigan > 2-0 @ 7/1
fulham v everton > 2-1 @ 19/2
qpr v chelsea > 1-3 @ 23/2
utd v city > 1-0 @ 9/1
blackburn v spurs > 1-2 @ 15/2

1pt win each

E >  goals (11/21, strike rate 52%, profit 13.09pts)

liverpool norwich unders 13/10
hull watford overs 43/40
oldham wycombe overs evens

5pts each

Saturday, October 15, 2011

footie multibets week 7

A > singles (7/16, profit -4.85pts)

bury @ 13/5, crawley 4/5, wba 11/10

5pts each

B > draw trixie (1/9, 5/18 draws, profit +140.06pts)

cardiff v ipswich 13/5
yeovil v carlisle 12/5
accrington v swindon 5/2

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6 (0/6, 1 5from6, profit -16.71pts)

west ham 11/13
huddersfd 10/11
cowdenbeath 8/11
annan ath 4/5
mk dons 8/11
chelsea 2/5

any 5 all 6 from 6 = 7 bets at 1pt

D > correct scores (4/56, profit -20.0pts)

liverpool v utd > 2-1 at 11/1
man city v villa > 3-0 at 10/1
norwich v swansea > 1-2 at 11/1
qpr v blackburn > 2-2 at 16/1
stoke v fulham > 1-2 at 13/1
wigan v bolton > 1-1 at 6/1
chelsea v everton > 3-1 at 12/1
wba v wolves > 2-0 at 19/2
arsenal v sunderland > 1-0 at 7/1 
newcastle v spurs > 2-1 at 11/1

1pt each

E > goals (10/18, profit +18.92pts)

rochdale colchester overs @ 5/6
watford palace overs @ evens
boro millwall overs @ 21/20

5pts each

short-term bets.. update 2

this weekend games sees these odds (middle and long)

liverpool 21/10, draw 12/5
villa 19/2, draw 43/10
swans 5/2, draw 27/11
blackburn 62/17, draw
fulham 11/4, draw 40/17
bolton 11/5, draw 40/17
everton 10, draw 4

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

mcgladrey classic (us pga tour)

the fall series continues this week with the McGLADREY CLASSIC in georgia - a par 70 course at 7000 or so yards which isn't the toughest but you have to stick it in the right place so it should suit the shorter neater players and this is where most of the focus is this week

plenty of tour pros live here so will be a local event for a few of them - usually makes them perform a shot or two better with local knowledge and some good fan backing

quite a few playing for their cards obviously and I like some of the recent efforts of a few players where they have sneaked into the top 10 or shot a really low one


adam HADWIN > young canadian has featured in the top 10 recently a couple of times and looks a useful player - likewise, compatriot McQUILLAN has been in the top 10 a couple of times in recent events too so worth a look

McKENZIE & BERTSCH both showed some form last week and both need to move up the rankings a bit to get their cards sorted so can expect them to be worth a back to lay perhaps

bud CAULEY looks to be a very good prospect too and he's another worth checking although odds already look a bit too low (shows the regard people have for him however)

regarding potential winners, CASEY warmed up well last wk which was on the back of a win in Asia so he may be a decent bet here, 38 is enough for me (betfair); there's a few who fit the bill and have ties locally in some way so SNEDEKER and ZACH J look likely to feature so will back both of those...

Sneds can be a pain as usually plays poorly when I back him so let's break that run.. 28 betfair; as for Zach, it would be amiss not to go for the local resident who usually manages to find a win at some point when playing consistently well.. hasn't got one yet this yr on main tour so this could be good timing -12th here last yr and not bad value at 27 betfair

C HOWELL and ALLENBY will presumably play fairly well also and might be worth a few dollars but perhaps KIRK at 65 is better value than Howell.. also looking at Hunter HAAS at 140 and HADWIN at 180 as decent shouts

might dabble on some of these if they look in good nick.. will probably start with Casey, Johnson, Sneds, Haas and Hadwin and keep an eye on Allenby, Kirk and co

trading > will go with Mackenzie at 260, Bertsch at 250, Stankowski has shown a bit recently and 450 isn't bad - looking to lay these guys if they go well initially

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

bodugi > win cash!

bodugi is a very simple idea... it's a community betting game whereby you can join a few others to bet on the outcome of either single or multiple football games, or horse racing meetings... and win cash!

bodugi obviously take a cut but the entry fees from the players (typically 8-12 in a game) are pooled and the winner takes all!

thus if you have 10 players paying £5 each into the pot.. there is £40 for the winner

to win you just need to score the most points... and you have odds on your selections as normal so the more riskier the bet, the more points you get if successful

very easy and good fun as you can play a horse card for a fiver and could win a decent pot!

have a look at and join in some of the games on the go... here is one we are playing tonight > 

international football on bodugi tuesday 11th Oct

Saturday, October 01, 2011

one ref?

why do they still persist with just the one referee in one of the biggest most high-profile sports in the world?!

I'm sure they can afford a 2nd or 3rd one in the top leagues bearing in mind the £££millions involved

most other sports now have a bunch of refs/umpires keeping an eye on everything and surely that would help in those critical moments that make/break games...

just an idea.

short-term stats.. update

EPL > this week looks like these to see how they go on paper betting

wigan 5/1 draw 3/1
blackburn 15/2 draw 4/1
norwich 21/1 win! draw 8/1
wba 13/5 draw 12/5
newc 39/19 draw 23/10
bolton 13/2 draw 10/3
qpr 3/1 draw5/2
stoke 15/8 draw 23/10
gooners 13/5 draw 5/2

these are all the longer odds for these matches.. will watch and see after last wk when nearly all the bankers came in.. one of those wks when good odds for the outsiders but unlikely so worth avoiding - this wk is much messier which is good..

footie multibets week 6

A > singles (6/14, profit -3.19pts)

Soton 4/6, Stranraer 4/5

5pts each

B > draw trixie (1/5 trixies, 4/15 draws, profit +148.06pts)

Everton Liverpool 9/4
Reading Boro 12/5
Sheff Utd Charlton 5/2

2pt trixie

c > perm 5 from 6 (0/5, 1 5from6, profit -9.71pts)

MK Dons evens
City -1 AH 5/8
Crawley 4/11
West Ham 22/19
Stranraer 4/5
Queens Park 3/4

1pt 5from6 all 6 = 7pts

D > correct scores (2/46, profit -28.25pts)

Everton v Liverpool > 1-1 at 6/1
Aston Villa v Wigan > 2-0 at 29/4
Blackburn v Man City > 2-3 at 28/1
Man Utd v Norwich > 2-0 at 7/1
Sunderland v WBA > 1-2 at 12/1
Wolves v Newcastle > 1-1 at 6/1
Bolton v Chelsea > 0-1 at 7/1
Fulham v QPR > 3-1 at 17/1
Swansea v Stoke > 2-1 at 10/1
Tottenham v Arsenal > 2-2 at 14/1

1pt each

E > goals (9/15, profit +23.92pts)

Villa Wigan overs evens
Ipswich Brighton unders 11/10
Sheff Utd Charlton unders evens

5pts each