Thursday, March 24, 2011

andalucian open & arnold palmer invitational

Andalucian Open >

LARRAZABAL > not in much form but capable... has improved GIR stats and hitting it further this yr but needs to get his putting back in the groove - if he does then he could make his odds look generous.. risky bet but may go well back on home soil.. 80 on Betfair

> hasn't yet hit the heights of last yr but started well last wk before falling away - another player not in form who may suddenly find his game so worth a dabble whilst odds are decent for me.. 66/1 available

LARA > hit and miss and flew out the blocks last wk.. could shoot 64 or 84 so risky but another that attracts me here; 3rd last wk after string of poor efforts... has won twice on tour so occasionally comes good.. 75 betfair

> perhaps due a win and played well here last year... not bad stats btu form isnt great although looked a bit more promising last wk.. 33/1 isnt that generous but could have a good week here so will dabble on him

trading > Storm at 151, Zanotti at 230 and Dodd at 320


Arnold Palmer Invitational >

bay hill is a long course but not really a problem for anyone these days and this course really suits neat accurate players and as always, good putters... so good ball-striking plus decent GIR will help - should also create plenty of birdie opps (par 72 now) although you can get stung hereif you're game isn't bang on

that leaves tiger, micko and a few others with question marks although tiger is interesting at these odds - more obvious would be the likes of allenby, chad c, zach j, o'hair, etc but their games don't look great currently... still worth a dabble though based on the course for sure so good luck anyone on them

traded couch a couple of wks back nicely but he has surprised me by upping his performance and looks a decent shout this wk but not sure he will win, his odds seem to have dropped a lot too which puts me off; laird likewise is in good form and impressing but not sure if he can win this... both close to being in my selections though

picks will be >

justin ROSE > not a fav of mine but having backed him last wk was pleased to see him shoot two 65s (laid off prior to final round which was a sensible move!) > think he will do similar here as course should suit and he may well be up there near the top after 3 so will go with that and Lay off againif he does... can win as he showed last yrbut not one I would have much faith in still - will be nanoyed having backed him last wk if he does well here and I don't (sometimes plays well 2-3 wks on trot) > 35 just enough to get the dough from me

dustin JOHNSON > thought I missed a trick not backing him recently when he took the lead after 3 rounds (WGC) but he fell away allowing my pick to win which was good lol - three top 10s in 6 events this yr; bounced back after a MC with 2nd last time out at that wgc event - has great stats, hits it miles and has good GIR nonetheless, putting well.. an all-round good player and although still wobbles sometimes on sunday - 4time tour winner so has experience too nowadays of winning... last couple of times here has had a single poor round which hasnt helped but could well be one of the better bets this wk for me > he is 2nd fav but at 20/1 looks juicy enough

ed MOLINARI > played here last yr for first time and came 2nd - has a great game and could well flourish on this tough course - has good GIR stats and is model of consistency with playing 4 days of events almost every wk he starts... defied the stats last yr by playing so well on debut and could benefit from that obviously, could be the yr he steps up after winning twice last yr on euro tour.. does need to find his form again as bit off colour currently but that helps the price > 65 on Betfair looks generous

ernie ELS > stats and results last yr were so good and much more impressive than you would think.. backed him a few wks back and he didnt click ut dont want to miss out on him suddenly getting his game together, 40/1 (43 Betfair) is enough to warrant a back for me as he hits a lot of GIR and can putt and scramble superbly when on song - defending champ so why not a repeat for the big easy

trading > Chad Campbell at 110 (ideal for course and good record here), Tommy Gainey at 240 (form) and Arjun Atwal @ 610 (good putter)

Thursday, March 17, 2011

transitions championship

this week i have resorted to picking some in form and some with good history at this course - like the idea of picking watney again but after backing him for a few wks and him paying off last wk I might skip altho no surprise if he is top 5

very close to picking Choi for his record here, and Harrington but will go with these this wk...

Retief GOOSEN > not one I'd pick normally and not sure about him when in contention these days but has won here and could be one to lurk then strike at the weekend if he posts a good score early on and gets the clubhouse lead... 30/1 appeals enough to warrant some investment

Bubba WATSON > backed him last wk due to his current excellent form, stats etc and the fact he seems to have become mentally stonger now so should really stick with him for another week - long off the tee but surprisingly no 1 ranked for GIR which is amazing really.. if he putts well which he can then he could win here... doubt being the illness of last wk, 29 Betfair

Justin ROSE > another who I rarely back but cant ignore agood record here and his safe neat and tidy tee to green game should bode wlel for him here... he needs to sink a few and be keen to win rather than accept another paycheque which is my worry but he did click on this tour last yr and may well be more mature these days > 40/1 best

Stuart APPLEBY > 60/1 is high enough for me and looks a decent price for apples who is getting back to his old self - banished a long run of poor form with a win last yr and has got good recent form here too... could go well and that price is encouraging for me

Ryan MOORE > had him in mind for this as sneaking along without much notice, in good form and should go well here as has played this course well previously... 50s again looks like decent value

trading > had a result with Hunter Haas last wk and worth a nibble at 160 here if his form stays good, Tommy Gainey at 125 as in good form, Kent Jones again at a big 730

Monday, March 14, 2011

golf bets update...


Phoenix > Couch, Bohn, Haas all traded really well for profit on week
Pebble Beach > Points won (price was 100), Gillis 3rd (price 140) and Cejka, Levin trades helped too for good profit on week
Honda > Yang 2nd (backed at 48 and traded), Couch traded ok - profit on week 
WGC Cadillac > Watney won (20) - profit on week

* if taking fixed prices, then straight tips were as follows (betting 2pts per tip with 1pt on win and 1pt on the place for E/W or 2pts for WIN Only) >

Phoenix > 4 tips = -8pts

Pebble Beach > 5 tips = -10pts
1st @ 80/1 returned 81 + 21pts = 102pts
3rd @ 100/1 returned 26pts
overall return > 118pts

Honda > 5 tips = -10pts
2nd @ 40/1 returned 11pts
overall return > 1pt

WGC Cadillac > 4 tips = -8pts (1 win only bet, 1 withdrawal)
1st @ 20/1 returned 21 + 6pts = 27pts
overall return > 19pts

Puerto Rico > 2 tips = -4pts
3rd @ 35/1 returned 9.75pts
overall return > 5.75pts

staked > 40pts
returned > 175.75pts
overall return > +135.75pts profit
overall ROI > +339.4%
LSP > +67.88pts (2pts per bet, 1 for win and 1 for place)

Friday, March 11, 2011

100 day challenge

continuing my quest to turn 500pts into 10,000pts over 100 days... by using a simple strategy of 3% return per day on the pot.. nothing too extravagant but after a while that 3% turns into a decent amount and thus the pot gets bigger and bigger :-)

posting this challenge on my thread on OLBG so will keep tabs on it as I go along...

click here for details >

Thursday, March 10, 2011

puerto rico open

with all the main protagonists away onbusiness in florida, chance for some of the lesser lights to post a career win here...

briefly, two picks for me this wk >

Bryce MOLDER > about 25/1 isn't bad for a decent putter, fairly accurate which will help here, 7th last yr and overall a good player who can shine in these conditions - 6th at pebble beach a while back and has managed a few top 10s on this tour without really threatening to win but this could be a perfect chance for him

Hunter HAAS > good effort last yr on the nationwide tour with 2 wins and ending 3rd in the money list.. has been in decent form recently and 60 on betfair looks very attractive to me for trading or keeping with if he gets off to a promising start - not a bad putter and stats aren't great but reflect the tougher time on the main tour he is having.. showing up well recently though and like a player coming into form so definitely a good back here

WGC cadillac championship

cracking event and one of those where certain players just seem to jump out at you.. which probably means I'll be completely wrong this week but hey...

looking at the event form, there are a string of top players who have all posted good finishes here... leads to thinking that this will be dominated by the big name experienced players and I have to go with that as i think there are a few that are in such good form it would be daft to go mad looking for a big outsider (altho this is tempered by the fact its only open for the top golfers lol)

anyway, the blue monster isnt such a fearsome beast really and at 7200 yards isnt a problem for the majority distance-wise... 9 watery holes will be interesting but there should be plenty of birdies on offer and some great golf - big hitters will no doubt look at being 7 or 8 under on the par5s and -16 or better should win unless it blows a bit

my current rankings for this event >

kaymer 14.33 (world no 1 for me)
mcdowell 15.00 (cracking bet)
woods 17.33 (avoid)
quiros 20.17 (v good value)
westwood 21.17 (unsure)
poulter 21.17 (good bet)
mickelson 21.50 (avoid)
els 21.83 (unknown)
donald 23.17 (good bet)
casey 24.33 (avoid)
mcilroy 27.00 (avoid)
goosen 27.67 (possible)
stricker 28.00 (unsure)
furyk 28.33 (unsure)
watney 28.67 (good bet)

> these are my top 15 and some are good value and some aren't (my rankings are my overall rating and then include specific event form, etc) > micko & tiger look worth skipping to me; stricker & furyk aren't top of m,y list but do look good value at around 50 for anyone wanting to back them; donald is in great form, poulter could go well; ernie was poor last wk but last yr did that and then won here, jason day may step up a level here, etc

bets >

Alvaro QUIROS > my fav golfer and always back him but he looks a great shout this week if he is in charge of his game - surprisingly good on GIR which is required here (74%) and can putt like a demon at times - length means he will set up plenty of chances, in terrific form having won recently on Euro Tour, only just beaten by inform yang at matchplay...

played here last 2 yrs and shot -10 both times for 6th & 13th, can't really see any reason not to back him > 30/1 or 33 Betfair (expect him to shoot 64 or 65 at some point and hopefully no 75s!)

Graeme McDOWELL > stats are superb, accurate, hitting plenty of greens, putting ok, good scrambling - if he sinks a few then he will maintain his terrific overall form of the past yr and should be a solid shout although odds reflect this.. world top 5 and justifiably as he has risen to that next level and all stems I think from that great effort in the ryder cup 2 yrs ago or so > 14/1 isn't great for sure but worth a win only stab methinks

Nick WATNEY > still waiting for him to click and win regularly - could be about time > 2nd here 2 yrs ago, shoots a lot of birdies and doesn't drop too many as a top scrambler... if he is confident then he must be in with a good chance here and 20/1 will do

Charl SCHWARTZEL > in very good form and often over-looked which is handy but not so much any more.. just 28/1 but still a good shout as consistent, good record here (2nd last yr), string of good finishes...

Bubba WATSON > 50 (Betfair) attracts me here as bubba seems a different player now (sometimes happens when a family member passes away as the player finds a new perspective etc) - top ranked for GIR surprisingly... in form, no reason why he can't blast this course and shoot a very low number

> could pick any number of golfers here but will go with these.. trading-wise nothing really appeals other than chowrasia who can putt v well at 950 

Monday, March 07, 2011

golf bets update...

only mentioned a few tourneys on here but quick update follows (haven't got an exact P&L for fixed bets as I trade but I guess I can do a mythical fixed return to give an idea for those who don't trade) - fixed is hit and miss and you either make a lot or nowt whereas with trading I reduce my profit on wins but also can avoid losses if the trades go well by getting green screens and that's what I tend to focus on


Qatar > no straight tips, Finch was a 20-timer trade (price of 320 down to 16 lay) / Bello traded well - profit on week
Dubai > no straight tips but did back Quiros (mentioned during the event) handily as he won but no credit as I didn't post it up! - small loss on mentioned trades


Phoenix > Couch, Bohn, Haas all traded really well for profit on week
Pebble Beach > Points won (price was 100), Gillis 3rd (price 140) and Cejka, Levin trades helped too for good profit on week
Honda > Yang 2nd (backed at 48 and traded), Couch traded ok - profit on week 

* if taking fixed prices, then straight tips were as follows (betting 2pts per tip with 1pt on win and 1pt on the place for E/W or 2pts for WIN Only) >

Phoenix > 4 tips = -8pts

Pebble Beach > 5 tips = -10pts
1st @ 80/1 returned 81 + 21pts = 102pts
3rd @ 100/1 returned 26pts
overall return > 118pts

Honda > 5 tips = -10pts
2nd @ 40/1 returned 11pts
overall return > 1pt

running total > +111pts

Thursday, March 03, 2011

honda classic

US tour swing switches coast and off to florida for the next few weeks - tricky event the honda and at 7200 yards and par 70 it should favour the best ball strikers and those who putt well on this grass etc

anyway, gonna skip the top of the market as any of the top 5 could win but don't buzz me

have to look at recent course form tho' and I've been close to picking bob for a while now... freddie too and wi perhaps

current form leads me to possibly stick with levin and points altho both have paid me handsomely recently...

and a few trades look interesting...

rob ALLENBY > v good record here and terrific striker of the ball - needs to sink some putts to win as always as that is the slightly weaker area of his game.. overdue a win on this tour bigtime and could well be primed to go well here after a reasonable effort fortnight ago > 33 appeals much more for him than those higher

freddie JACOBSON > course form and good show last wk until the weekend means he is wortha punt here > 66 is enough to warrant a dabble

louis OOSTHUIZEN > will stick with him as think he is over-priced still - good player who is close to moving up into that top echelon I feel, already bagged a major of course... 84 (Unibet) looks generous so will go with that

YE YANG > previous winner here, in good current form, major winner.. all the ticks you want really...worthy bet at 47

ernie ELS > finishing my 5 this week with forgotten man of sorts... could be time for the big easy to click and experience and all round game means 33/1 is attractive for me

walker is a good shout but bit low for me odds-wise, dufner likewise may go well... good luck to all those on them and others of ocurse!

trading > Brett Wetterich at 200 (nice to see him return after so long out and is showing good signs of form), Alex Cejka at 170 (fav of mine for trading as often starts well), Chris Couch 160 (terrific putter, two top 10s in 3 events this yr and altho no form in this, have a feeling!)

and might dabble on two big prices in Kent Jones at 816 and Derek Lamely at 740