Thursday, May 26, 2011

bmw championship

weather sound a bit wet so may favour those who tough it out a bit... decent length course but that won't bother them too much although should slightly favour those who blast it - at least it should be a decent test rather than seeing 62s all week

briefly >

alvaro QUIROS > love the 48 available on my man - top golfer, entertaining, my regular bet.. simple as that.. hits it long, great recovery player, top putter.. if on song then look out

can't be having westy at single figures although I expect him to be a front-runner - not backing donald either but especially at his price and thus martin KAYMER is the pick seeing as he's at 20 Betfair ; good value for such a class act and more than capable of switching back to top form and walking this...

pablo LARRAZABAL > 290 Betfair is huge; ok he's not the most obvious pick but have a lot of time for this lad - good talent and again if he's on song then he could make a mockery of those odds - couple of recent good finishes too (10th 3rd) so that bodes well

simon DYSON > 160 Betfair is attractive for the 4-time tour winner, recent good form (three top10s in last 7 events) and has played well here previously..looks decent shout for a place to me

trading > david HOWELL at 430 (previous winner and still a top putter, hope he can rediscover his form), ricardo GONZALEZ @ 830 and alvaro VELASCO at 740.. all big prices

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

hp byron nelson championship

very open event and top 10 in the market all have a chance of course but none jump out really - DJ is an obvious shout if I had to pick one.. Gay was disappointing last wk and should go well here but would prefer 40s not 28.. Sabba likewise is bang in form but 25 isn't over generous

my ratings show Gay / Sabba / DJ in the top 10 but for betting purposes / value I think >

john SENDEN is a good shout but not sure if he can win as have doubts over his putting... should do well as in consistent form and top 10 last wk.. worth an e/w shout at 40/1 or so for sure (might back him at 48 betfair and see how he goes)

can see some longer prices doing well so will go with that theory this wk

blake ADAMS > 150 on betfair > 2nd here last yr on his debut at this course, played well last wk with a T16th and could be due to hit some form after a string of mid range finishes this season.. nothing impressive stats wise but could be good value

heath SLOCUM > 200 betfair > I backed Sstreelman at 200 last wk and he ended 10th so going for another at that price this wk and hoping for better lol; slocum missed the cut last wk by a shot but was 12th here last yr - also is very accurate and hits a lot of GIR but cant sink much.. if he putts well he may do well here

brett WETTERICH > 160 betfair isn't bad for a previous winner; returning to the fold and has done well on a brief sojourn to the nationwide tour (won once in 4 events) - hope he can find his old form

rod PAMPLING > 120 betfair long overdue return to bit of form for the aussie with two top15s in last 3 events played; good putter and could be a surprise package here

Trading > Bowditch at 160 (hint of form last wk T16th and due to get married here later this yr funnily - long hitting aussie has had lot of problems but has ability and could go well)... Sim @ 600 (out of form but has ability and had a good round last wk / needs to find some greens!)... Beckman at 260 (no form at all with string of MC but did that last yr then came 5th here)

Thursday, May 19, 2011

crowne plaza colonial

JASON DAY > win only bet as so much in his favour - home course, excellent form (three top 10s in last 3 events, 5 this yr etc ) 4th in all round ranking blah blah... obvious and he will either win or come nowhere!! will be annoying if he wins and I dont back him so will go for the win bet 19 Betfair

BRIAN GAY > looks v good value at 40/1 (42 Betfair) - last week he took an 8 on the 18th in the first round; add two other DBs and he still ended at -8 (12).. if he had avoided those he could have been in contention (applies to all I know but you know what I mean!) was tied 6th putting and tied 2 birdies last wk.. also has super stats with no 1 ranked driv accuracy, sand, scrambling, inside 5' putting etc etc > looks to be a jolly decent bet due to course, form, etc and probably will let us all down now!!

KEVIN STREELMAN > posted a 67 final round last wk and can be a bit streaky.. putts well and if he can stay straight on this course he may well provide good value at 200 (Betfair) - may look to trade out of him tho

> good player, good stats, in form (3rd, 6th last 2) and should go well here as accurate off the tee.. needs to sink a few putts as usual but 60 (Betfair) is high enough to attract me

STEWART CINK > feeling rather than judgment here as hasn't done much this yr and stats are poor... but shown good signs recently with couple of decent finishes and cutting out the poor holes.. could be steady and sneak in late - 42 Betfair

Garcia could be a good trade as getting some form back although not sure he can do enough to win.. might post a 65 or so though and see his price drop.. Tringale at 280 and Atwal at 540 other small trades 

Monday, May 16, 2011

us tour update (bets)

on the US tour, 9 events have been tipped on this blog... total of 38 bets and have found 3 winners in those 9 events and managed 5 other places too so 8 returns out of 38 (21% strike rate) > as I trade on betfair then I have reduced the win returns by laying off but have also made a lot of money elsewhere by trading picks that didn't win so I'm in very good profit so far this year again

If taking the fixed odds then the results aren't bad! (this is the best way to show some sort of return as tricky to analyse the trading side)

Currently standing as follows >

Profit of +342%
ROI of +242.8%
LSP of +92.25pts

So if you had followed 38 tips at level stakes you would be looking at a very healthy return (the bigger the stake the better it looks!)

golf bets update...


1/ Phoenix > Couch, Bohn, Haas all traded really well for profit on week
2/ Pebble Beach > Points won (price was 100), Gillis 3rd (price 140) and Cejka, Levin trades helped too for good profit on week
3/ Honda > Yang 2nd (backed at 48 and traded), Couch traded ok - profit on week 
4/ WGC Cadillac > Watney won (20) - profit on week
5/ Puerto Rico > Haas 3rd (60) -  traded so made profit on week
6/ Transitions > Rose 5th (40/1) - another trade at low price as advised so a profit on week
7/ Arnold Palmer > x blank this week so loss on week
8/ Zurich Classic > Choi 3rd (30) - small return but overall made a loss on week
9/ Players Championship > Choi 1st (60) - profit on week

9 events > 3 wins, 5 places

* if taking fixed prices, then straight tips were as follows (betting 2pts per tip with 1pt on win and 1pt on the place for E/W or 2pts for WIN Only) >

Phoenix > 4 tips = -8pts

Pebble Beach > 5 tips = -10pts
1st @ 80/1 returned 81 + 21pts = 102pts
3rd @ 100/1 returned 26pts
overall return > 118pts

Honda > 5 tips = -10pts
2nd @ 40/1 returned 11pts
overall return > 1pt

WGC Cadillac > 4 tips = -8pts (1 win only bet, 1 withdrawal)
1st @ 20/1 returned 21 + 6pts = 27pts
overall return > 19pts

Puerto Rico > 2 tips = -4pts
3rd @ 35/1 returned 9.75pts
overall return > 5.75pts

Transitions > 5 tips = -10pts
5th tied @ 40/1 returned 5.5pts
overall return > -4.5pts

Arnie Palmer > 4 tips = -8pts

Zurich > 5 tips = -10pts
3rd @ 30/1 returned 8.5pts
overall return > -1.5pts

Players > 4 tips = -8pts
1st @ 55/1 returned 70.75pts
overall return > 62.75pts

Total staked > 76pts
Returned > 260.5pts
Overall return > +184.5pts profit
Overall ROI > +242.8%
LSP > +92.25pts (2pts per bet, 1 for win and 1 for place)

Thursday, May 12, 2011

players championship

Micko looks a good shout as usual but is Tiger value at 15? hindsight is a wonderful thing and oh to know if he has got his game back on song after recent injury - was playing well at the masters without sinking the putts really... even when he's off form he still contends so might be time to get back on the tiger train... think i'll take a watching brief for now though as the presence of these two has pushed the odds out for others and they appeal a bit more

KAYMER > 46 on Betfair has to be taken as this course should suit a load better than augusta - straight long and once he gets in contention there wont be many who can take him on - matter of time until he clicks again and I'm jumping on these odds

KJ CHOI > 60 is another price that jumps out to me a bit here... back him quite often and he is cool and calm and could well play steadily and end up in contention on Sunday - Jason Day was up there with him in the masters and he has crossed my mind but at 55 I prefer the former so will go with him

> 130 is big enough for me for this astonishing talent - already twice a winer on the euro tour and more than capable of mixing it with the big boys on this tour - this course should suit his game as not long but accurate and tidy and can putt.. add a strong mental attitude and he could well be up there so a good back for me

SCOTT > was an avoid for a long time but has obviously got his mojo back in recent times and has won again - prior winner here too and does seem to do well at certain times, worth a dabble at 36

JACOBSEN / VERPLANK > may have a small flutter on each of these as both appeal to me value outsiders here... both had good efforts here last yr and have shown some good form this yr.. games should suit too so 170 freddie and 190 scott are nibbled at (may well trade these out) > verplank stats are very impressive and with two top 10s in 6 events (in last 3 actually) he looks a decent shout at a big price

other trading > Dufner (good form) at 170 and Fisher at 190 (new dad factor possibly) both appeal for trading as may well start off nicely, Hanson at 350 

iberdrola open

LARRAZABAL > back him often and in good form coming into this so should go well, consistent too recently with only 1 round over 71 in last 20 or so, decent chance if in form and could win well > 23 Betfair

LARA > type of player to win these sort of weaker events > has won before twice on tour and capable of hitting form from nowhere >23 Betfair

LOWRY > coming into form and altho long time since featured or competed on sunday arvo, could go well if weather worsens, game is good and form is promising > 46 Betfair

GARRIDO > spanish will want to show up well this wk and tight neat game may help here hopefully... could sneak into the frame altho form isnt great > 70 Betfair

WATTEL > sneaky under the radar new player and showed good form last week with 2nd 5th on tour in 10 events after qualifying well, promising youngster and looks like he can putt really well, very tempting if he is continues his upward form > 60 Betfair 

might have a small trade on m quiros at 460 and ormsby at 310 but very small stakes... also, wouldnt surprise me if ollie managed to get himself up there early doors