Saturday, August 27, 2011

footie multibets week 2

bit late this week but ticking it over...

A > singles
B > draw trixies
C > perm 5 from 6
D > correct scores (EPL)
E > goals (2.5)

A > best bets value-wise for me this week > wba at juicy 13/10, brechin 6/4, huddersfd 8/13 so will go with 5pts win on these...

B > these 3 today...
spurs v city @ 12/5
leicester v soton @ 12/5
sheff wed v scunny @ 11/4

C > perm these 6... 
mk dons @ 10/11
derby @ 19/13
boro @ 8/13
rotherham @ 13/10
huddersfd @ 8/13
hearts @ 5/6

D > score predictions are...
blackburn v  everton > 1-1 @ 23/4
chelsea v norwich > 3-0 @ 7/1
swansea v sunderland > 1-2 @ 11/1
liverpool v bolton > 2-0 @ 6/1
newcastle v fulham > 2-2 @ 16/1
spurs v man city > 1-1 @ 6/1
man utd v arsenal > 1-1 @ 15/2
wba v stoke > 3-1 @ 18/1
(missed the first 2 games so just 8 this wk)

E > goals bets are...
spurs v city under 2.5 @ 11/10
ipswich v leeds over 2.5 @ 4/5
bury v charlton over 2.5 @ evens

Thursday, August 25, 2011

the barclays

Playoff time and 124 line up for this week's action at The Barclays tournament

Ok - this week I have gone for some fairly obvious picks but will keep an eye on those lurking down near the 100 mark as they will want to push on up the field to maintain an interest in the next few wks... no course form so relying mainly on in-form players and those whose game should suit this course - has been wet so may well be holding and the rough could be fairly harsh but looking at those who are accurate and putt well especially 

steve STRICKER > have backed him a lot in the last couple of yrs and been rewarded well - wont desert him now as he is such a consistent performer these days and has been the star of the playoffs in the last few years - multiple career wins and a 3 in these playoffs too - this wk should be low scoring and putting is especially key so all points towards another impressive effort from SS.. 18 betfair is attractive enough as I would peg him a few points lower than that

jason DAY > top class youngster who is constantly impressing especially in bigger events - could be a good week indeed as he is a very good putter and that will be paramount here > 28 b/f is good for me > 14 cuts made from 17 and 8 times in the top 10 including majors so some top form.. will ignore last MC and hope he can justify himself here

luke DONALD > not one I pick often if at all but cant deny his form and consistency.. this course should really suit his game so will give him a go here - was 2nd twice last yr in the playoffs so maybe can move up a notch and win one of these events to cement a superb year for him > win only due to low odds 13 b/f

charles HOWELL > currently very much in-form so will back CHIII here - another who should really relish this course - has had 4 top5s in last 7 tourneys and if he can keep that form up could be useful at 44 b/f (odds bit lower than expected and to be honest would be surprised if he won but can see a frame finish at least)

camilo VILLEGAS > very inconsistent and plenty of MCs but did find a 3rd a while back and played well for a top 10 last wk.. course again should help so could be a return to form for CV who should like the playoffs after his wins a few yrs ago > 120 b/f 


trading > ernie ELS 188th in the list > showed he could grind well last wk so may have another good effort here.. 130 appeals if he can get stuck into this - would be looking to lay at 20s if possible

tommy GAINEY played so well last wk so 200 is enticing - no reason why he cant keep his terrific attitude and enjoy himself again

vaughan TAYLOR 107th > started well but faded last couple of tourneys so may be a good early trade at 320

michael Thompson at 570 could be worth a dabble too 

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

check some sites out...

OLBG as I mention regularly as it's a terrific site where you can a) get free advice, research, tips etc, b) win money in the tipping competition and c) enter free challenges to win money too

and it's totally FREE.. pretty rare these days I know... you just need an email address to join and off you go

click here for the link and sign up >>

* there's a few top tipsters from OLBG now tweeting so have a look around on there too

* check some of the blogs on my 'blog-list' as they are all fresh and up-to-date and have some cracking tips and articles


Monday, August 22, 2011

man utd v spurs

Nice way to start the season! Off we go to Old Trafford to face the champions in a mouth-watering Monday night match-up

No Modric tonight as his mind is elsewhere apparently...

Spurs have an awful record v Man Utd and haven't won here since way back in 1989; they have had some very good performances here in recent times however without much luck - they were denied a few years ago when they scored a perfectly good goal, well they didn't as it wasn't given (by the only 2 people in a 60k crowd who didn't see it go 2 feet past the white line), and also  went 2 up at half-time in 2009 before promptly conceding 5 in the second half (touch of deja vu there as I vividly remember the same thing back at WHL a few years earlier when they were 3 up at HT and lost 5-3!)

If spurs take the game to Utd they may well nick a result.. but if they sit back and expect to lose then they probably will; I can't see much more than a win by the single goal for Utd with my head saying 1-0 or 2-1 (and my heart hoping for a stunning away win!!)

Too early in the season to have a realistic bet so will wait and see what happens... long as we don't see this again though...

golf bets > US tour full stats

14 events > 4 wins (28.6% per event or 6.25% per tips) and 5 other placed (35.7% per event or 7.8% per tip)

64 bets @ 2pts per bet (1pt win 1pt e/w) = 128pts staked

average odds taken > 62.29

total returned > 287.5pts

profit > 159.5pts

profit / ROI > 124.6%

> by taking value rather than shorter-priced 'more likely' picks there tends to be less placed tips but you get a better overall return... 4 wins isn't stunning but considering the odds (20/1, 20/1, 55/1, 80/1 fixed odds) the return is excellent - there have been plenty of 100/1 tips and higher

> better odds can be gleaned from using betfair and I trade so I tend to make less profit on the wins but avoid losses as I 'green out' where possible usually

> by following these tips though, you could have turned 128pts staked into 287.5pts which is 125% profit!! not bad eh...

consider if you had stuck £10 per pt > this would have meant staking £1,280 but you would have a bank now of £2,875!!

and if your wallet is fairly bulging and you staked £100 per pt you would have turned £12,800 into £28,750 within 6 mths!!

* I always mention this though > only bet what you can afford to lose

I always stick to this and only use bigger stakes when I have earned them through profit

Sunday, August 21, 2011

golf bets > US tour update

US TOUR 2011 season

1/ Phoenix > Couch, Bohn, Haas all traded really well for profit on week
2/ Pebble Beach > Points won (price was 100), Gillis 3rd (price 140) and
Cejka, Levin trades helped too for good profit on week
3/ Honda > Yang 2nd (backed at 48 and traded), Couch traded ok -
profit on week 
4/ WGC Cadillac > Watney won (20) - profit on week
5/ Puerto Rico > Haas 3rd (60) -  traded so made profit on week
6/ Transitions > Rose 5th (40/1) - another trade at low price as advised
so a profit on week
7/ Arnold Palmer > x blank this week so loss on week
8/ Zurich Classic > Choi 3rd (30) - small return but overall made a loss
on week
9/ Players Championship > Choi 1st (60) - profit on week
10/ Crowne Plaza > couple of early movers but no joy so loss on week
11/ Byron Nelson > x blank this week so loss on week
12/ US Open > no-one got near rory so loss on week
13/ US PGA > early micheel trade 1000 down to 110, stricker laid friday
sub 4.0 all led to green screen so small profit on those (backed bradley 
at 190 but not advised!)
14/ Wyndham Championship > Simpson 1st (20/1) 

14 events > 4 wins, 5 places 

* if taking fixed prices, then straight tips were as follows (betting 2pts
per tip with 1pt on win and 1pt on the place for E/W or 2pts for
WIN Only) >

Phoenix > 4 tips = -8pts

Pebble Beach > 5 tips = -10pts
1st @ 80/1 returned 81 + 21pts = 102pts
3rd @ 100/1 returned 26pts
overall return > 118pts

Honda > 5 tips = -10pts
2nd @ 40/1 returned 11pts
overall return > 1pt

WGC Cadillac > 4 tips = -8pts (1 win only bet, 1 withdrawal)
1st @ 20/1 returned 21 + 6pts = 27pts
overall return > 19pts

Puerto Rico > 2 tips = -4pts
3rd @ 35/1 returned 9.75pts
overall return > 5.75pts

Transitions > 5 tips = -10pts
5th tied @ 40/1 returned 5.5pts
overall return > -4.5pts

Arnie Palmer > 4 tips = -8pts

Zurich > 5 tips = -10pts
3rd @ 30/1 returned 8.5pts
overall return > -1.5pts

Players > 4 tips = -8pts
1st @ 55/1 returned 70.75pts
overall return > 62.75pts

Crowne Plaza > 5 tips = -10pts

Byron Nelson > 5 tips = -10pts

US Open > 6 tips = -12pts

US PGA > 5 tips = -10pts

Wyndham > 5 tips = 10pts
1st @ 20/1 returned 21pts +6pts = 27pts
overall return > 17pts

Total staked > 128pts
Returned > 287.5pts
Overall return > +159.5pts profit
Overall ROI > +124.6%
LSP > +71.25pts (2pts per bet, 1 for win and 1 for place)

Saturday, August 20, 2011

footie multibets week 1

A> singles

best single bet for me considering value etc etc is charlton at 4/5

10pt win

B > draw trixie

norwich v stoke 23/10
brighton v b/pool 5/2
forest v leic 12/5
s/wed v notts co 5/2

2pt trixie = 4 pts

C > perm 5 from 6

sunderland 6/4
derby 8/7
reading 4/7
charlton 4/5
mk dons 8/11
rotherham 8/11

any 5 and all 6 from 6 = 7 bets @ 1pt each

D > correct scores (EPL)

 sunderland v newcastle > 2-2 @ 16/1 
 arsenal v liverpool > 1-2 @ 11/1
 villa v blackburn > 1-0 @ 6/1
 everton v qpr  > 2-0 @ 7/1
 norwich v stoke > 1-1 @ 23/4
 swansea v wigan > 2-2 @ 16/1
 wolves v fulham > 1-2 @ 11/1
 chelsea v wba > 1-0 @ 15/2
 bolton v man c > 1-3 @14/1
 man u v tottenham > 2-1 @ 31/4

1pt win each of these...

nothing too exuberant this week! all fairly straight-forward and not expecting much but we shall see... thought about covering doubles too but that's another 45 bets and only likely to return 3-4 x stake as profit if you hit a double.. hard work in other words

E > goals

boro b/ham unders 8/11
forest leic unders 8/11
everton qpr unders evens

5pts each

> bit of fun and nothing too demanding and not expecting any massive profits as watching to see ho w it ticks over for a few wks... correct scores perms and trixies are all hard work as not much value but possibility of a payout one day

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

wyndham championship

webb SIMPSON > backed last wk but MC but still in a good vein of form - odds aren't great at 20/1 but justifiable as top 10 here last yr and notching plenty of birdies this yr - top of the all-round ranking hence me backing him last wk in the major.. should be time for him to step up a la bradley and co who have all moved on this yr

brandt SNEDEKER > obvious pick and odds just about justify backing him although have the odd doubt as he can go awol a bit- if he is on song though he should go well, 28/1 is available with one bookie still which is better than I thought (Toms may well be a better shout but is half the odds so siding with Sned) 25 Betfair

chris COUCH > excellent putter and on that basis will give him a crack here; needs to improve on the short holes but his stats are really good this yr.. recent form is good and he's very consistent > 90 on Betfair is very appealing as if he is on song he will no doubt pick up a lot of birdies and that putting ability may well be the difference here

johnson WAGNER > caught my eye a bit although doesnt stand out really - has won this yr though (Mayakoba) where he shot -17 in a weaker event.. that was sandwiched by MCs so not too bothered about any run of form - fairly accurate so outside chance of being up there or could be a blowout.. worth a dabble at 150 for me

nick O'HERN > needs to really have a good week on the greens or else chip in a lot! has found a bit of form recently and might be a decent longshot although not much to really justify, more of a hunch really.. either himor jason bohn for my 5th pick and bohn looks more logical given his record here but o'hern just may surprise (might trade) 160 Betfair

trading > the following rookies will be worth watching as they try to qualify for the fedex playoffs - and it's a season of rookies and first-time winners eh! and they have a bit of recent form too so will be trading these hopefully

michael thompson 220
matt mcquillan 240
kevin chappell 160

Saturday, August 13, 2011

footie multibets

ok.. thought I would run a new blog and see how we get on... will be based upon a number of different bet types and is mainly for fun - not expecting much return on some of these (expecting losses for a long time on the perms/trixies but always a chance they might click eventually!)

A > singles
B > draw trixies
C > perm 5 from 6
D > correct scores (EPL)
E > goals (2.5)

* I will start with a big old pot so I have room for all of these! and will work on the following staking / banking systems:

A > singles > level stakes and any profits will be banked

5pt win each bet and with a good pot I should be able to tick over for a while - odds hopefully will be decent so not too many heavily odds-on

B > draw trixies... these will be for 2pts per bet so 8pts each one (4 bets) - just need the odd treble once in a while to make these worthwhile hopefully!

C > I used to do 8 from 10 years ago and occasionally got 8 which gave me my money back, sometimes 9 which was a decent profit and very rarely all 10 which paid handsomely! will do a smaller version of any 5 and all 6 from 6 so 7 bets in total (small stakes of 1pt)

D > correct scores as it says on the tin, picking the odd one of these will help but the odds are usually so stingy that it's very difficult to get these into profit (I will be shocked if I do!) 1pt bets

E > goals... the best under/overs for me each week - using value so looking for over evens if possible 3pt bets

Thursday, August 11, 2011

us pga championship


schwartzel looks good value here to me - not that I'm particularly expecting him to win but think he could well make the frame and at 60/1 that is tempting indeed

obviously he won the masters this yr but still remains abit under the radar - when you consider he finished 9th in the us open and then 16th in the british open he has a jolly impressive record in the majors this yr and one that would garner more attention if he was one of the biggest names in the game

he has made the cut in all 12 of the events he has played on the us tour this yr... 16 in total consecutively.. his stats are good and he should flourish on a par 70 as the only area he is a bit weak on is the par 5 perf...

so if he as the form, has the confidence gained from winning at augusta - as the ability.. then there isnt much to stop him and he sounds confident and relaxed too which is a major plus on a course like this

I would have thought 33/1 was a more realistic price so Im happy to get on board at 65 betfair


having backed stricker plenty of times and won a few he is one of my fav picks... but he hasnt quite clicked in majors and is way overdue now!

so I'll give him another go this wk although he may be better suited to courses where he can score well as he just luvs banging in birdies all day - thats the only doubt for me as here he will have to wait until they come along as its going to bemuch harder than usual...

stats wise he is top of the tree in so many areas and win wise he should have the confidence now to take a major having won tour wins into double figures these days

not too sure he will win but he is stil value at this price even for an each way shout and considering he has been notching top 20s nonstop for months he looks a reasonably sure bet


another one like stricker who I have backed a lot over the last yr or two... another one who is due to win a major in the near future too perhaps

watney has got a great record in recent times and has been so consistent.. has won twice too this yr which is always a good sign pre-this major

consistently finishing high up the leaderboard, almost won this previously too of course.. game should suit fairly well and if he is confident he may well take that next step up and establish himself at the top of the game

I expect a strong showing from the US players as you can expect donald mcilroy and westy to do likewise from europe - could be a cracking tourney and staying cool and controlled will be vital as this course may well bite

watney looks fairly good value at this price so worth a little dabble on him > 38 betfair


in great form and has played well in the last two majors with top 20 finishes... in fact he has 10 of his last 11 events with top 21 or better.. has a couple of 2nd places in there and is overdue a win

now whether he can do it here is another matter but he did play well in the us and british opens

allround rank of 1 is impressive... plenty of birdies scoring well and generally has a good allround game obviously to justify that stat

and as this is the year of the rookie and first time winners etc then why not simpson doing well here? in great consistent form and fired a 66 in the first round of open championship too so not afraid of going out there and scoring well..

odds are about right but look good to me so worth an each way punt > 80 on betfair


dont need to say to omuch about the credentials of mickelson as he is obviously one of the top names in the game etc but I am picking him on the basis that you dont often see him at these sort of odds - he was out of sorts uspposedly before the british open but still managed to find a 2nd place finish - and if clarkey hadnt been on top of his game then another major would have made its way to mr mickelson's trophy cabinet

anyway - he has a decent record in this major unlike the open championship - and also has the game to suit here although he will need ot be accurate off the tee which sometimes causes problems for him... should be able to scramble well though and will appreciate the greens too

there are plenty of players who look like they could go well here this wk and the young guns are taking over this yr as we predicted in the OLBG golf forum a couple of yrs ago!... but micko is a wise old sausage and if he remains calm then he can prosper here... win only bet at these odds and bit of a all or nothing vote for him as he will either win well or be nowhere in my opinion! > 28 betfair

trades > fancy dabbles on de jonge at 240, micheel at 1000, elkington at 460, piercy 430