Sunday, October 30, 2011

melbourne cup thoughts

MELBOURNE CUP - Flemington
a few thoughts from me for the big race on tuesday...
1 Americain (barrier 15) > justifiable fav, great warm-up win, will see trip out, won last yr - 58k big weight though although should be able to handle it, bit of rain will help but a class act
2 Jukebox Jury 6 great form (france/irish st l)  and should be best value, possible winner but inexperience may hurt, likely to front-run and could get pipped in the straight 
3 Dunaden 13 should stay on well and can make frame - won geelong cup impressively last wk, won over trip, beat americain twice and better off here weight wise - could be the one if ridden well and times the finish right
4 Drunken Sailor 8 has won over this trip (1 of 3 who have) and should stay well but not much form coming into this
5 Glass Harmonium 23 cracking win saturday when made all and held on well - will probably lead here but doubt can hold this lot off
6 Manighar 21 consistent and should go well but perhaps 4th at best, not great draw
7 Unusual Suspect 7 - ran well in caulfield cup but hit traffic and 6th could have been much better
8 Fox Hunt 19 good form line thru others and good value outsider; way better off weight-wise than ebor and should reverse some placings with others here so price looks good
9 Lucas Cranach 11 vg form lines indeed but hard to call whether will hit top form which will be needed/ great draw / 50% career win rate
10 Mourayan 14 good run saturday when 2nd in mackinnon and previously beat niwot carrying 58k... well backed here in OZ
11 Precedence 2 in no form at all and hard to like
12 Red Cadeaux 16 under the radar and could well be a sneaky as has got good form lines, the rain will help bigtime; better off at weights with JJ from irish st leger when ran well (followed fame & glory and then had to work hard to get on terms)
13 Hawk Island 18 would want rain
14 Illo 1 Bart C's best chance probably and he has got gates 1&2 which helps - good 3rd to americain recently and few K's better off
15 Lost In The Moment 3 no warmup races, inconsistent altho good form from goodwood cup and ebor
16 Modun 5 big horse needs rain
17 At First Sight 10 good 2nds in bendigo cup and naturalism and has chance but not impressive enough for me
18 Moyenne Corniche 17 been backed with a big bet today here, skipped warm-up race at weekend, won ebor which has proved a really good race but could be best of the rest as cant see making the top 4
19 Saptapadi 22 no form and not much chance
20 Shamrocker 24 poor form poor draw ignore
21 The Verminator 4 not given much hope here
22 Tullamore 12 skipped w/end and has run some good races, good draw, decent value outsider
23 Niwot 9 the 7yr old won lexus on saturday (lexus is usually good form line to MC) catapulting up the market but big ask to win this too although good stayer - should get good position from start as has some slowies around, low weight, chances as has won over trip and 3 course wins too, best home hope - well backed today here
24 Older Than Time 20 out of form/outclassed
> after crossing out a few who I really don't think will win it still leaves a dozen or so who could... really open race this year and plenty that can take this if they are on top form and get a bit of luck... the draw and choice of jockey will be reasonably important this year I think and my slight preference is for those who can definitely handle the trip
* already on dunaden at both 40 and 21 so happy with current sub 10 price; also on jukebox jury at 33 so pleased to see that at 12 or so
* niwot has thrust itself into contention and off a very light weight should compete but have inkling for fox hunt at a good price still
* americain should no doubt be contesting and top 3 looks reasonably obvious and really interesting to see if dunaden can get past  in the straight and whether JJ and glass harmonium will push them along fast enough to draw some of the sting out of the late finishers

currently think

difficult to judge but could be value >

should be popular but not quite ticking enough boxes for me >

decent longer shots >

> thus, Americain isn't much value at his price, DUNADEN is the one I'm on and liking a lot, Niwot is popular and should get in amongst them and perhaps Tullamore could make up the first 4... can see it being really close and not much covering the first half dozen for sure.. a good jockey will be crucial in this tight contest


  1. DUNADEN snuck home in a photo.. a very tight photo indeed but happy days as backed him at big prices as mentioned...

    americain finished like a train and almost snatched 3rd

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