Thursday, January 12, 2012

sony open

Off to Hawaii this week and the SONY OPEN; quite a different test compared with last week as this course is short and tight and at just over 7,000 yards should bring out the best in the neat, accurate players

Defending champion is Mark Wilson and there are a few here who have very good records in this event > Stricker has a 3rd and two 4ths in last 4 yrs here, C Howell III has a great record and Chad Campbell also does well here

Choi is a previous winner and is in excellent form - also finished last week with a 65 so he will be a popular choice no doubt

Stricker is fav and 8.6 to back isn't bad actually - I'm not tempted but can't knock the chances of last week's winner who has won 8 times in his last 50 starts (12 tour titles in total)

Webb Simpson seems to have started the year well where he left off last and should go well here too but price is a bit too short for me

Jerry Kelly, John Senden and Mark Wilson will probably all have their followers this week

Experience counts for a lot here as the rookies don't tend to fare too well although I will be watching Bud Cauley with interest as he was so impressive in getting his card in no time at all last year

My picks for the Sony are:

KJ CHOI > popular this week as price is just 15 on betfair but looks good enough for me; played well last week and that closing -8 round will give him good confidence for this event - should enjoy the tighter course and small greens and having won this event in '08 there is no reason not to back him really - played well at the tail-end of last yr too and having discovered the winning feeling last yr again after a hiatus, he looks a really solid back this week > 15 on betfair and probably worth a straight win bet on fixed odds

SABBATINI > horses for courses as Rory has twice been runner-up here in recent years and does seem to play well in Hawaii; managed to make the top 10 last week despite a 2 shot penalty for being tardy to the tee in round 2.. currently 38 on betfair and backing him as he does seem to play well on certain courses and is always capable of going really low which may be possible here if the wind drops

TOMS > didn't feature last week unsurprisingly but should come to the fore here as the course plays to his strengths and he has won this before too of course; hope last week was a good warm-up > 44 betfair is tempting enough

Keegan BRADLEY > surprised to see his price so high and after finishing well last week he may go against the grain of older players doing well here > 32 betfair is very tempting

these 4 for me and I would expect to see Stricker, Kelly, Senden, Simpson, Howell and Wilson probably in the Top 10 or not far off - hard to see too many at big prices this week so will stick with my picks 

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

spurs v everton

been happily watching my team win plenty and stroll along in the upper echelons but am aware that like every season before, they will no doubt chuck in a dodgy spell and come a cropper more than once when things are going so well

everton at home could be that game - king missing is the biggest problem as it has been sorely under-noted how much influence he has on this team; with him they hardly ever lose, without him they often lose.. simple fact but no king is a big big worrry

add to that some other recent injuries such as parker (probably unfit) and gallas and sandro and suddenly it's looking a bit of a lightweight spurs team that will no doubt start as hot favs

everton have been under the radar this season but have been ok away from home - they have picked up 4 wins and only lost by 2 at chelsea and city and 1 at arsenal... thus, you would think they could nick a 1-1 draw here as spurs have scored in every game for donkey's now (runs have to end!) and the visitors are capable of exploiting any holes in the spurs defence

spurs have won 7of their last 8 home games with the other being a 1-1 draw with chelsea - their home form has been excellent for a long time now and I doubt everton will win as thfc seem to have eradicated those daft home defeats that they suffered in the last few yrs (wigan wolves etc)

but can't help thinking this will be tricky and a lay of spurs at 1.62 looks a decent move; alternatively, everton +1 on the asian handicap is 1.89 which gives you a good return if they avoid defeat (and money back if they just lose by a goal)

9 of the last 11 meetings have resulted in the home team not winning this fixture / everton have won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 5 visits here in the EPL / this fixture has a history of both doing well at the opposing ground

risky game for spurs and 1-1 correct score bet being sensible

Saturday, January 07, 2012

my 12 month ROI tipping performance

Here is the summary of my blogging tips on OLBG for last year (2011)

ROI over the year is what I'm looking for as I often pick a few long-shots and avoid all the short priced horses and favs in the golf markets  - long-term consistent profits are the aim and I did ok last year on OLBG as you can see from the blogger tables

Other Sports > this is a table for blogged tips on cricket, golf, rugby and a few other sports (not horses, tennis, football) that are collated on OLBG via the tipster competition

ROI for 2011 was over 47% which is not bad at all eh!

This table is for blogged horse-racing tips and I achieved over 27% return on ROI for the last 12 months (2011) - very few if any odds-on shots with quite a few longshots in there too so strike rate was around 25% but pleased with a profit and chuffed with being 2nd on OLBG as there are some cracking tipsters on there 

Summary > horse racing blogged tips showed a 27% ROI and other sports (mainly golf) showed a 47% ROI return > these are true and verified returns and show that if you use a sensible staking plan you can achieve a very good return on your investment!

Thursday, January 05, 2012

hyundai tournament of champions

the start of the 2012 US TOUR is the traditional curtain-raiser in Hawaii with the winners from last year event... starting FRI 6th JAN 2012

the course here at KAPALUA is long but has extremely wide fairways so you can get away with blasting it wildly off the tee; add to this some strong breezes which are common and you can make a mockery of the longer holes...

this should help the big hitters for sure although the greens are very large too so there will be a lot of lag putts required and good putting will as always help here

expect a winning score around the -20 mark as -6 or -7 will be about right for the leader of each round.. chuck in the odd par score and your winner will probably need to be notching about 36 birdies or so (+/- eagles)

a few picks for this opening week >

jonathan BYRD > he is the defending champ and also boasts a good record here with four top 15 finishes (albeit small fields) and nearly always shoots below par - may again take advantage of slow tour starters being the first event, also has good 3 putt 'avoidance' stats as well so isn't bad at all at nearly 30 price-wise > 29 Betfair

gary WOODLAND > could be a very big year for this strong young powerful athlete - popular this week too with his game looking suited and some good recent performances (imppressive in the end of year tourneys) - hits it  a huge distance and can score really well here too if he putts as well as he can; great chance to really move onwards and upwards in 2012 > 20 Betfair 

scott PIERCY > another blaster like woodland who hits it a long way and also goes for the birdies so therefore a good week beckons although he may be a bit outclassed in this field, odds tempt however so will dabble > 75 Betfair

bryce MOLDER > was ranked 3rd last season in the 'strokes gained putting' stat on PGA TOUR (and also 3 putt avoidance) and really finished the year well so perhaps this is a nice stepping stone for him on the upward path he seems capable of > 34 Betfair

some others worth noting > Brendan Steele > I have high hopes for Steele, the likeable Bill Haas should go well here and I also think Jonatthan Vegas will be worth watching here - basically most of the new young guns should enjoy it and although there may be 1 or 2 obvious mature players (Bubba perhaps) one of the above hopefully will fire enough birdies to take this... I'm avoiding the top of the market and looking for one of these 4 above and might trade the other guys if odds look decent and they are still within touch after a round or so

let's hope for a decent start and I'll use smaller stakes here as always wary of the first event although will count them as 1 LSP as usual for stats purposes

* looking to maintain last year's huge profits tip-wise! *

links >

Sunday, January 01, 2012


will be posting much more regularly on here and will really get into the golf especially.. also some more horse tips and some selected footie markets too probably...