Thursday, February 10, 2011

dubai desert classic & AT&T pebble beach

dubai >

kaymer is my current world no 1 (my rankings)  but at 9/2 looks a bit short to be backed... will avoid that - tiger should go very well here and might be value in some eyes at 6/1 but I'll watch and wait on him - his price wont go up too much unless he really plays badly but may contract even with a par score so he needs to be treated as a separate entity as always (the market is different with tiger!)

doubt rory will win although probably a solid top 5 bet - needs to win more to be backed at these prices

anyway - value hunting means looking elsewhere - ross FISHER is a class act tee to green and may well play well this wk... hope so as I will have a dabble on him as he has such a good game tee 2 green, just needs to sink a few birdies obviously as that's where he sometimes lets himself down - 35/1 is available (32 Betfair)

will trade Cabrera-Bello again as had a result on him last wk at very big odds (390 woohoo); 130 now isn't bad for someone who has found some form and is capable of shooting very low

Gallacher likewise in good nick so will dabble on him at 120; would prefer higher and doubt he will win but good early trade hopefully

and Noren is showing some signs of stepping up to the next level so 120 on him is attractive - another player who is capable of winning and has the game but needs consistency and also to improve in line with his potential

will trade these mainly and have a small interest in Fasth at 220, O'Hara at 720, Finch again at 280 and Havret at a big looking 410

not many straight bets this week but lot of smaller trades - will see how it goes... for those not interested in the first 3 in the market, laying them all may pay well as their odds are so short (bound to be 1 or 2 of them who will rapidly lengthen given an average start) 

pebble beach >

the pro-am means you need to be fairly relaxed and calm usually, plus those with good course form tend to fare well particularly at PB (2 of the rounds) - scoring well at Shore helps too altho Spyglass could be the key as much harder and a good score there will really help 

DJ could own this tourney with another good week as 7th/win/win is some record - very short in the market tho obviously

nick WATNEY > shooting some low numbers and could be time for a win - not much pricewise at 16/1 but in good 'nick' and although doesnt have a great record here he has the ability

tom GILLIS > 8th here last yr and has looked decent recently - putting really well which will obviously help as usually struggles with shorter ones - was no1 in birdies last yr on tour so bit of a mixed bag but if he clicks and sinks a few then could be a good priced bet > 142 on Betfair (100/1 fixed)

david DUVAL > MC, 25th, 17th shows an improvement and was 2nd here last yr so perhaps time for just his 3rd top 3 in last 5yrs! no need ot mention his woes but would be good to see him click bakc into some top form - putting really well and could be worth a dabble at 80/1 (80 bf)

brandt SNEDEKER > not a player I often back but is close at the moment with a 9th and 8th last fortnight - all-round ranked 3rd - hope he doesnt have one of his dodgy rounds > 33/1

DA POINTS > a player with good stats and a good start to the year and pretty much under the radar - has won on the nationwide tour and is perhaps due a good effort on the main tour - last yr wasnt too clever with half the events being MC but he did post a few top 10s... has played well in 3 events this season (5th at Farmers, 12 of 13 rounds under 71) and could be a decent bet at these odds > 80/1 or 100 on Betfair

trading > alex CEJKA @ 227 (decent record on this course and can go low early), john MALLINGER @ 151 (event form) and 2 of my favs, LEVIN at 150 and joe OGILVIE at 400 

* will see how this pans out and keep updating if any trades or other bets appear...

Saturday, February 05, 2011

qatar masters & phoenix open feb 2011

will eventually remember to keep this blog ticking over!

posted my thoughts on OLBG > briefly to update though...

phoenix open > picked villegas, kim, haas, moore, and traded bohn 480, couch 115, matteson 195 and chalmers 270 

qatar > didnt pick any but traded finch at 320, cabrera-bello at 310 and kingston / davies both at 290