Monday, September 26, 2011

bill haas great shot (tour championship)

here's that shot!

haas making a par on 17... $11m on the line!! <

(thanks to pga tour)

Saturday, September 24, 2011

footie multibets week 5

this week's selections below with the current season-to-date performance updated in brackets > trixies are way up thanks to the successful 3/3 draws in the first wk; perm 5 from 6 had a line win last week so that's doing ok and will be very profitable if I nail all 6

correct scores down as expected, singles almost break-even and goals bets doing well surprisingly

this week's picks are as follows:

A > singles

mk dons at 10/9, blackburn +0.5 AH at evens, sheff utd evens

5pts win

B > draw trixie

wigan v spurs 14/5
doncaster v palace 40/17
sheff wed exeter 3/1

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6

mk dons 10/9
charlton 8/13
huddersfield 1/2
preston 8/11
scunthorpe 4/6
shef utd evens

1pt any 5 and all 6 makes 7pts staked

D > correct scores

arsenal v bolton > 2-0 at 7/1
chelsea v swansea > 1-0 at 7/1
liverpool v wolves > 1-1 at 17/2
newcastle v blackburn > 1-1 at 13/2
wba v fulham > 2-1 at 9/1
wigan v tottenham > 1-1 at 13/2
stoke v man u  > 1-3 at 13/1
qpr v villa  > 1-2 at 23/2
norwich v sunderland > 2-2 at 14/1

1pt each

E > goals

boro ipswich under 5/4
qpr villa over 11/10

5pts win

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

tour championship / fedex cup

the race for the FEDEX CUP cup culminates this week at East Lakes with The Tour Championship – the field of 30 players are in the hunt for the mega payout of $10m; big money even for these guys… the top 5 currently in the points race all have the incentive of a win here being enough to guarantee them the CUP and all that cash whilst all the others in the field have a crack at winning it but need the field placings to fall kindly to do so

as it stands currently, Simpson is in a great position as he could finish in the top 5 and probably still win the CUP; he can also finish lower and still win if results go well for him
the others in the top 5 can all win it with a victory here but could also win the CUP if they finish 2nd or possibly 3rd in DJ’s case
there’s a good chance for those ranked 6-10 currently as if they won this event and the top 5 all finished out of the frame then they would probably be triumphant - it would take a remarkable set of results for others  to win because it would require the top 5 all to finish poorly and it’s doubtful that any one of the 5 will not make the frame (jim furyk did win the fedex cup from 11th last yr with his final event win but this year it looks more likely to be a current top 5 points player who will take the spoils)

anyway, here are the points currently for the top 5 >
Player Fedex points
Webb Simpson 5261
Dustin Johnson 3841
Justin Rose 3748
Luke Donald 3625
Matt Kuchar 3349
simpson is obviously in pole position as he can finish 5th and probably still win – with his recent form that looks likely and doesn’t look bad at 4.6 on betfair for the title; donald is 4.7 and these 2 look likely > this course suits donald and with his consistent good form all year he could well finish in the top 3 and take the glory. rose is 15 and looks better value then kuchar at 11 for me as rose hits some golden streaks and with his win last wk he looks primed to make a late run at this title; kuchar collects top 10s but not sure of his ‘winning’ ability yet – would be a great time to step up a level for sure for him but trading-wise I would go with rose
so no great outsiders for the FEDEX title for me and not much value in the favs but donald could cap an extremely consistent year and consolidate his world no 1 ranking with a top 2 finish here and the over $11m dollar total paycheque too – don’t often back him myself as he is doesn’t win as many as he should (or for a world no1) and hasn’t won many on this tour but can’t deny he is thereabouts all the time
right – tour championship itself and after a poor effort last wk I might go hunting bigger numbers this week… not much value in the favs and although i think donald will be top 2 or top 3 I’m not impressed with the 7.8 on offer to back him… if I back him in the fedex market then I will skip this one as the fedex price is a few points lower but has ‘probably’ less people likely to take it (the tour championship has 30 possible winners whereas fedex has 5 probably winners!)
rose isn’t bad value at 23 hoping he continues his streak (remember that hot spell last yr when he was clearly the best for a fortnight on the us tour)
yang at 55 is value.. consistently under-rated and has a string of decent perfs this yr too
of the shorter prices then watney/scott both look to have potential with good track form etc
woodland at 34 could be useful as his so long and light rough will help > see also jason day for that point… both of these could be due a really good week although day at just 21 isn’t huge value
you could make a case for all of these players obviously but bearing in mind the paycheque/status of the event/fedex cup.. adding in very recent form and the course then I will probably plump for rose, day, woodland and yang as above and look at donald in the fedex winner market

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

short-term stats giving an edge?

> being somewhat bemused by the regularly daft results in the EPL I thought I would have a quick look at the data this season and see if there were any quirks that cropped up.. that may give a small edge in our battle against the rubbish odds offered every week
> the short-term stats can be misleading but can also point to some current trends - and as stats in the long-run usually 'average out' or conform to the expected long-term ranges, there can be short-term spells that you can take advantage of
right... data for the EPL so far > 49 matches played (5 wks)
> I have removed the big 3 of utd, city and chelsea as they skew the data hugely and I want to spot value in the run-of-the-mill games that are so hard to predict - you can look at those teams separately and back accordingly sometimes; case in point being laying them away from home as Online Trader is doing so successfully (check his blog)
*EPL season so far minus the big 3 >
> that leaves 35 matches > these have provided the following (using bet365 odds data)
homes > 12
draws > 12
aways > 11
avg odds for away team when winning > 3.63
avg odds for draw when match is a draw > 3.34
avg odds for home team when winning > 2.32
* ok.. no value in backing home teams then but there is a profit if you had backed all the away teams irrespectively 
using 1pt per bet level stakes > 35 matches means -35pts staked but returns of 39.88pts (13.9%)
* if you had backed all the draws irrespectively > -35 staked but return of 40.05 (14.4%)
* you could have backed both draw & away each game and seen -70 stakes but return of 79.93pts (profit of 9.93pts or 14%) > 14% return just by avoiding home teams!
* laying the home team would have meant 12 losses at liability of 20.38pts but 23 wins at 1pt per win > thus 2.62pts profit
right, we have some nice returns here just by going with the short-term trends...looking at the away /draws for starters
* backing the highest odds in each game would have shown 25 losses but 10 wins and those 10 games would have given a 40.45pt return so less 35 staked = 5.45pt profit (15.6%), another edge!
* backing the middle odds result would have given 13 wins at a return of 42.28pts (mostly draws as they are usually the middle option odds-wise > profit of 7.28pts  (20.8%)

*stats for the HT/FT result in these games were >
H - H 9 D - H 2 A - H 1 A - A 5 D - A 6 H - A 0 H - D 4 D - D 8 A - D 0  
> this shows the turnaround happened just once (blackburn coming back to beat arsenal)
> of the 12 home wins, 9 of these were already H at HT which seems high.. backing H/H might be an idea there
> of the 35 games, only 13 changed from the HT result to the FT result

summary > very small sample for analysis and could be a completely different set of stats in the next 5 wks but interesting that the higher odds prices are coming in a bit and showing a profit... worth looking at the middle and high odds teams en masse and seeing if this trend continues - bookies often slow to react to the surprising results and last w/end was a good example of unexpected scores again with norwich winning at bolton, qpr turning over wolves, blackburn winning, etc... and the returns will be much better using betfair SP rather than bet365 odds 

weekend fixtures >
bolton @ 15/2 / draw 18/5
wolves @ 9/1 / draw 4/1
blackburn @ 18/5 / draw 13/5
fulham @ 23/10 / draw 23/10
wigan @ 29/10 / draw 5/2
villa @ 23/10 / draw 40/17
sunderland @ 2/1 / draw 23/10
> will paper back all of these and see what happens this weekend!

Saturday, September 17, 2011

footie multibets week 4

this week's selections below with the current season-to-date performance updated in brackets > trixies are way up thanks to the successful 3/3 draws in the first wk; also had a double up last wk for some more profit

correct scores down as expected, perms down although getting close, singles slightly down and goals bets are up

A > singles (4/8, profit -2.82pts)

Hartlepool @ 10/11
Southend @ 8/13
Bolton @ 10/11

5pt singles

B > draw trixies (1/3 trixies / 4/9 draws, profit +164.06pts)

Palace v Boro @ 5/2
Tranmere v Wycombe @ 5/2
AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham @ 11/4

2pt trixie

C > perm 5 from 6 (0/3, profit -21pts)

Reading @ 5/8
Southend @ 8/13
Sheff Utd @ 5/6
Stranraer @ 8/11
Cowdenbeath @ 6/5
Valladolid @ 4/6

any 5 all 6 @ 1pt = 7pt

D > correct scores (2/28, profit -11.25pts)

Villa v Newcastle > 2-0 @ 17/2
Bolton v Norwich > 3-1 @ 15/1
Everton v Wigan > 1-1 @ 15/2
Swansea v WBA > 2-3 @ 40/1
Wolves v QPR > 1-0 @ 6/1
Spurs v Liverpool > 2-2 @ 16/1
Fulham v City > 1-4 @ 25/1
Sunderland v Stoke > 2-1 @ 19/2
Utd v Chelsea > 1-1 @ 7/1

1pt each

E > goals (5/9, strike rate 56%, profit +6.5pts)

Villa v Newcastle under 2.5 @ 5/6
Peterboro v Burnley under 2.5 @ 7/5
Wolves v QPR over 2.5 @ evens

5pts each

Thursday, September 15, 2011

bmw championship (fedex playoff)

charl schwartzel > masters champion is often still under the radar but has the ability and has had a cracking record in recent times in big events.. more than capable of playing well on tough courses like this and could be timing his form just nicely again... might well want to add some playoff glory to his improving cv

led at halfway in boston and was looking good but may be able to string it together for 4 days here.. tough course will sort some of them out and not a birdiefest like recently too thankfully

can see jason day doing well but isnt getting over the finish line...his time will no doubt come soon -  the main protagonists should all be up there... stricker has gone off the boil so avoiding him for a change and watney is in form despite an awful hole messing him up last time out

villegas I have backed a lot recently but odds have dropped now so not so much value there..sneds too could be in the mix... 
have gone for a few that may do it this week but any of the field and especially the top 20 in the market could easily win this open event > 36 betfair

jim furyk > available at 30 on betfair and sneaking into some form, almost reminiscent of last yr where he kinda came from nowhere to take the pot of gold...

hasnt done much all year but is looking more solid these days and more like his old self - finished 9th at the wyndham and then 6th last time out so starting to find the top 10 again after a string of mediocre perfs

stats dont say much understandably but hi sgame is built around being unspectacular... plotting his way round and it obviously works well for him to say the least... this should help here of course and if he can sink a few putts then he may make a good move here and be capable of defending his title

has a stellar career record and a terrific record inthese playoffs too.. also has a string of top 10 finishes here so everything is lined up for him to revert to type and grind his way round to a top 5 finish or a surprising win perhaps - 30 betfair

dustin johnson > won this last year and was also a winner a few weeks ago when the playoffs started so not much more needs to be added about his ability other than for a guy who hits it so stupidly far, he also hits a heck of a lot of fairways

distance also means he can hit short irons in and attack pins and thus he is a superb golfer who is maturing nicely and being an incredible athlete too means he really is poised to become a major star - more so than he already is.. can see him adding some majors as he has been very close and suffered a bit but that all helps build the knowledge and mental strength

so this wk... tough course and you need to be accurate but he has the attributes and if on form could be good value at about 19 on bet for me

phil mickelson > not often you get mickelson at the odds he has been offered at quite a few times this season - backed him in the open championship on that basis as he was about 40 plus which is great value..he proved then that he could still tick along in contention..

no whe has switched to the 'in' putter he may well miss a few but that has always been his way - more than capable and although he may miss some fairways here and struggle I wouldnt be surprised if he scored well overall and was in contention

could be a decent value bet accordingly at 25/1 or so... he can still come from nowhere to an extent and take the fedex cup - finished 10th last wk and shot a tasty 63 in the penultimate round; problem here could well be the course but its tough for all of them and micko is more experienced than almost all here of course - chance for the slightly older guy to hold back the stream of new young guns taking over perhaps 27 betfair

bo van pelt > consistent all season and has made 17 of 24 cuts and then gone on to finish in the top 25 in 12 of those 17 weekenders - so if he gets off to a start he should stay the course wellhad 4 top10s too this season but only 1 in the frame so unlikely to win but could sneak in late and make the top 5 perhaps... in good nick and hence lets hope he continues this week... finished well last event - has some decent stats and does well in overall ranking and ball striking (both 9th) - also has had some decent finishes this season in big events with 8th at the masters and 14th in the us open.. was 7th at the deutsche 2 weeks ago.. hope he finds the putts to keep that form going a she needs to gain more shots on the flat surfaces 75 betfair

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

scotland v georgia

quickie re the rugby world cup game later today

with so many so-called weaker teams doing well so far it is worth checking the handicaps on these games... georgia tonight take on scotland who will want to win well but could find them a tough nnut to crack

the handicap has already shifted as the bookies tighten up a bit but looking at the prices on betfair there seems to be some value in backing the georgians to get close to the scots and also score 12pts or more

georgia aren't too far removed from romania in ability (beat them by 5 and lost by 12 in the qualfying) and romania lsot by 10 to scotland the other day so although you can't take these scores as definitive guides, it shows they have a chance of keeping within 10-15pts perhaps

bets >

georgia points > above 11.5 is 1.77 which isn't a bad return on your money if you think they will pop over a few pens or score a converted try and maybe 2 pens

georgia > +21.5pts if you think they can get within 22pts then this market is about 1.6 which again isn't bad for what looks to be a reasonably good shout

Sunday, September 11, 2011

fulham v blackburn / norwich v wba


last season I backed clint DEMPSEY to score as he has a penchant for netting against blackburn rovers.. he duly obliged and his recent record is now 'scored in 4 of his last 5 games' against blackburn

not bad... sometimes these little peculiarities have a habit of continuing for a while - much more than they should statistically but always worth watching out for

unibet have him as 5/2 to score anytime which may be worth a flutter; 13/2 with william hill for first scorer if you want to be more specific

game-wise it's a basement battle although that is a bit unrealistic as fulham should do ok; blackburn were very unlucky home to everton when losing and will no doubt improve but do look a bit short of talent - perhaps a battling draw is the best option here as fulham are 4/6 generally - there have been all results in the recent history  so not much to go on

recent fulham form indicates a 1-0 home win as they have been very tight at the cottage and usually do well against lesser lights


I personally think WBA have been unlucky this season and this could be a bit of a surprise with them nicking it in a fairly high-scoring game > 9/5 is available for the baggies to pinch the 3pts on the road

norwich tend to score all the time but also look weak defensively hence over 2.5 @ 10/11 appeals - also WBA have had overs in their last 6 away EPL games and have scored in their last 7 away (after a barren run prior to that)

Saturday, September 10, 2011

footie multibets week 3

A> singles (2/4, strike rate 50%, profit +0.6pts)

charlton 8/13, colchester 4/5, chelsea 7/10, wolves -0.25 AH @ 5/4

> 5pt stake on each

B> draw trixie (1/2, profit +139.88pts)

west ham v pompey 3/1
scunthorpe v sheff utd 5/2
everton v villa 27/11

> 2pt trixie=8pt stake

C> perm 5 from 6 (0/2, -14pts)

wolves 15/8
southampton 5/6
huddersfield 8/11
swindon evens
crawley evens
chelsea 7/10

> 1pt perm any5,all6 from 6 = 7pt stake

D> correct scores (1/18, profit -11.25pts)

Arsenal v Swansea > 3-1 @ 23/2
Everton v Aston Villa > 1-2 @ 13/1
Man City v Wigan > 1-0 @ 8/1
Stoke v Liverpool > 1-2 @ 35/4
Sunderland v Chelsea > 0-2 @ 7/1
Wolves v Spurs > 2-1 @ 11-1 (nap bet!)
Bolton v Man Utd > 1-2 @ 8/1
Norwich v WBA > 0-1 @ 9/1
Fulham v Blackburn > 3-1 @ 16/1
QPR v Newcastle > 1-1 @ 11/2

> 1pt each = 10pt stake

E> 2.5 goals (3/6, strike rate 50%, profit -1pt)

everton villa overs  11/10
stoke liverpool over 11/10
peterboro hull under 7/5

> 5pts on each = 15pt stake

Saturday, September 03, 2011

site updates...

have added livescores to the TAB MENU so if you want to quickly check the latest soccer scores then just click on that TAB

also got a few ads here and there but limited to BETFAIR and BET365 as just wanted the main exchange and one of the best bookies

plenty of useful LINKS on the right-side menu so bookmark this site and use it to access all these betting services/sites easily