Wednesday, September 21, 2011

tour championship / fedex cup

the race for the FEDEX CUP cup culminates this week at East Lakes with The Tour Championship – the field of 30 players are in the hunt for the mega payout of $10m; big money even for these guys… the top 5 currently in the points race all have the incentive of a win here being enough to guarantee them the CUP and all that cash whilst all the others in the field have a crack at winning it but need the field placings to fall kindly to do so

as it stands currently, Simpson is in a great position as he could finish in the top 5 and probably still win the CUP; he can also finish lower and still win if results go well for him
the others in the top 5 can all win it with a victory here but could also win the CUP if they finish 2nd or possibly 3rd in DJ’s case
there’s a good chance for those ranked 6-10 currently as if they won this event and the top 5 all finished out of the frame then they would probably be triumphant - it would take a remarkable set of results for others  to win because it would require the top 5 all to finish poorly and it’s doubtful that any one of the 5 will not make the frame (jim furyk did win the fedex cup from 11th last yr with his final event win but this year it looks more likely to be a current top 5 points player who will take the spoils)

anyway, here are the points currently for the top 5 >
Player Fedex points
Webb Simpson 5261
Dustin Johnson 3841
Justin Rose 3748
Luke Donald 3625
Matt Kuchar 3349
simpson is obviously in pole position as he can finish 5th and probably still win – with his recent form that looks likely and doesn’t look bad at 4.6 on betfair for the title; donald is 4.7 and these 2 look likely > this course suits donald and with his consistent good form all year he could well finish in the top 3 and take the glory. rose is 15 and looks better value then kuchar at 11 for me as rose hits some golden streaks and with his win last wk he looks primed to make a late run at this title; kuchar collects top 10s but not sure of his ‘winning’ ability yet – would be a great time to step up a level for sure for him but trading-wise I would go with rose
so no great outsiders for the FEDEX title for me and not much value in the favs but donald could cap an extremely consistent year and consolidate his world no 1 ranking with a top 2 finish here and the over $11m dollar total paycheque too – don’t often back him myself as he is doesn’t win as many as he should (or for a world no1) and hasn’t won many on this tour but can’t deny he is thereabouts all the time
right – tour championship itself and after a poor effort last wk I might go hunting bigger numbers this week… not much value in the favs and although i think donald will be top 2 or top 3 I’m not impressed with the 7.8 on offer to back him… if I back him in the fedex market then I will skip this one as the fedex price is a few points lower but has ‘probably’ less people likely to take it (the tour championship has 30 possible winners whereas fedex has 5 probably winners!)
rose isn’t bad value at 23 hoping he continues his streak (remember that hot spell last yr when he was clearly the best for a fortnight on the us tour)
yang at 55 is value.. consistently under-rated and has a string of decent perfs this yr too
of the shorter prices then watney/scott both look to have potential with good track form etc
woodland at 34 could be useful as his so long and light rough will help > see also jason day for that point… both of these could be due a really good week although day at just 21 isn’t huge value
you could make a case for all of these players obviously but bearing in mind the paycheque/status of the event/fedex cup.. adding in very recent form and the course then I will probably plump for rose, day, woodland and yang as above and look at donald in the fedex winner market


  1. day has gone nice and low now so a good trade if wanted... and donald has dropped nicely in the fedex market so given me room to back others and look good for a profit

  2. shame jason day cant quite finish events off as he is consistently up there - good lay indeed

    donald was so close to the fedex cup...3rd outright would have clinched it but he had to give way by a few pts to the terrific display from bill haas who came from nowhere and got the unlikely string of results required! simpson really fell away and ended up near the back of the field

    great to see haas win as he is such a good guy - and that was some shot on the 17th!!