tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-355482852024-02-02T13:56:45.483+00:00gibber world...trying to make a few dollars...Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger108125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-61996927998596111322015-08-17T04:28:00.000+01:002015-08-17T04:35:18.281+01:00FTL (Friendly Tipster League) Results 2014-15<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I entered the <b>FTL </b>last season and thoroughly enjoyed this well-run competition - credit and thanks to Cassini (Green All Over) for great work in keeping it going all year</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Obviously I was chuffed with the outcome as it isn't too easy to beat a bunch of pro tipsters let alone make a decent profit over the season!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I just missed out on the League and Cup double having lost the Final in a replay!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I maanged a profit of 60pts lSP and an ROI of almost 10% (these were all using the FTL pricing which was via Pinnacle)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Full result here ></span></div>
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<b><a href="http://green-all-over.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/ftl-end-almost.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Friendly Tipster League 2014-15</span></a></b><script type="text/javascript">
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-62227297687624862122013-05-26T09:47:00.005+01:002013-08-16T02:19:36.219+01:00My updated performance on<b> OLBG</b> (in their virtual tipster competition)<br />
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a few screenshots highlighting my performance; I don't take it too seriously and have some bad months of course but overall have done fairly well in some of their tipster tables - I'm currently in the horse tipster and football tipster PRO leagues</div>
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Premiership tipping at Dec 2012></div>
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Premiership tipping for 2012 ><br />
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Horse tipping Oct 2012 ><br />
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Masters Golf Competition 2013 ><br />
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Horse bloggers tipping > 6 months to June 2012</div>
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Football Pro Tipsters > 12 months to Jan 2013<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-90446404351980765852013-04-28T10:44:00.000+01:002013-04-28T10:45:33.718+01:00SBB Columns<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Remember to check out <b style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: blue;">SBB Columns</span></b> where I am one of the team of expert sports betting bloggers who are looking to help wherever we can in our quest to make some money betting on various sports!</span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">and on Twitter here ></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>@SBBColumns</b></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-65273505967651616632013-04-28T10:40:00.000+01:002013-04-28T10:40:08.634+01:00Horse Racing Tips using a Staking Plan<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have a horse racing tipping blog running on <b><span style="color: blue;">SBB</span></b> - it uses a staking plan that basically rewards my style of tipping </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I usually go for horses with odds in the range of evens up to whatever.. often in the 5/1 kind of area</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I usually get about a 24% strike rate (averages out at this over a long period of time) and with this staking plan, it helps me as bigger stakes are used for the bigger prices</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So there's no heavy stakes on odds-on horses, much the opposite with smaller stakes used on the 2/1 shots and then when I hit a 6/1 winner, it pays really well!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Anyway - the details are on my blog on <span style="color: blue;"><b>SBB</b></span>, link is here ></span></div>
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<b><a href="http://sbbcolumns.co.uk/pl-blogs/horse-racing-tips-blog-using-the-gecko-staking-plan/" target="_blank"><span style="color: red; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My Staking Plan Horse Racing Blog!!</span></a></b><script type="text/javascript">
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Haven't updated this blog for a while as I have been on <b>SBB</b> but here is a quick update on my tipping on the OLBG betting site</div>
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<b>Masters Golf</b> < I managed to win that competition courtesy of Scott, my main bet, winning the green Jacket and also Leishman making the frame; I tipped him each way at 400/1</div>
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I also tipped McDowell the week after the Masters and he duly won on the US Tour so that helped me go top of the overall <b>Golf Tipsters </b>competition too!</div>
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And I managed to find a few horse winners too amongst others which helped my overall LSP for <b>APRIL</b> on the OLBG Tipster Competition > I hit +120pts or so which is currently (28 Apr) ranked 1st!</div>
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Not bad out of 4 or 5,000 even if I say so myself :-)</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-80358343078003697942012-10-05T09:56:00.002+01:002013-02-25T00:45:26.467+00:00SBB > new tipster blog<div>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">very pleased to be involved with a terrific new blog site,<span style="color: red;"><b> SBB</b></span> which is <span style="color: red;"><b>Sports Betting Bloggers</b></span> - some terrific knowledge on there from a group of respected and long-term profitable bloggers</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">click here to visit the site ></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://sbbcolumns.co.uk/" target="_blank">Sports Betting Bloggers</a></span><script type="text/javascript">
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-92048732395146431762012-08-05T08:24:00.000+01:002012-08-06T02:26:42.283+01:00uspga championship<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">off to <b>Kiawah Island</b> and the Ocean Course</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">for the final major of the season, the <b><span style="color: red;">USPGA CHAMPIONSHIP</span> </b>which takes place this week..</span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">should be a fabulous test of golf and let's hope that the wind is strong enough to test these guys but not too severe to make it a lottery</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">this course is long at over 7,600 yards and can play to almost 8,000 if they shift the tees to the furthest point back - the ocean breezes make a massive difference to the required shot here however and there can quite easily be a 4-5 club difference when playing the same shot on different days</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">fairways shouldn't be too hard to hit here and the greatest asset will probably be iron play into the greens - obviously accuracy will help but playing the right shot at the right time will be paramount; course management is vital and with likely changing breezes from hole to hole then you really need to remain calm and have your wits about you - there have been some course changes over recent years which have mainly been fairly subtle and relate to green fringes and run-offs mainly - the greens are paspalum these days which basically means no grain; most of the players won't be used to this but shouldn't make much difference as they will be cut 'major-speed' low</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">thus, hitting it a long way and having good GIR stats will help; finding the right spot on the greens will help otherwise there will be plenty of shots rolling off the edges - scrambling will of course be vital as there will be plenty of good shots ending up off the greens being a coastal course - putting as ever needs to be strong as being a major these greens will be quick</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">expecting the winning score to be around -5 or so.. may be lower if its calm but doubt it will go past -10; if it blows a bit then expect level par to be closer</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">therefore I'll be looking for players who have a fair bit of experience, preferably having played here before but definitely those with a decent record on these type of courses; great short games and reasonably accurate off the tee although will edge towards the longer hitters probably - great course management is a must</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">keegan bradley is the defending champ (winning on his major debut!) and has come into some form recently so he will presumably be popular in the market, having a bit harder time of it in his 2nd full tour year but has got great stats an dis no 1 ranked in the all-round category showing that he is playing well without hitting any particular heights - could be worth watching and 66/1 is probably about right</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(edit: he won the WGC Bridgestone yesterday so is indeed 'in form'! and his odds have now dropped to 50/1 best fixed and about 43 betfair)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">tiger will be the fav as per the old days but there are a fair few others who have the game and experience to do well here</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(edit: a solid final round at Bridgestone yesterday for woods and note that his tee to green was really good (3rd in GIR), it was his putter that let him down a bit- still managed another top 10 however)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">jason dufner lost in that play-off last year and was 5th the year before and with his consistent performances in recent times will be another popular pick no doubt - twice a winner this year and showing that he can now handle the pressure and compete on a sunday</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">rory mcilroy likewise has done well in this event and with a decent effort this week will be attracting support - has been hit and miss in recent months so hard to judge whether he will put it all together and impress or fall away; risk with him is he does seem to lose interest if it isn't happening</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">webb simpson broke through with his US Open win and returns to action this week; being a 'local' he will have the benefit of the fans support - the dad factor may help him as often provides the maturity that some players need (or the lack of sleep that can be worse!)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">another local is dustin johnson who has had injury problems for a fair while now - looks to be back on song now though and living locally, he will be well supported and with his length and record he looks a sure-fire back bet to me</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">donald westwood and scott all have good reasons to be backed as they seek that elusive major win; mickelson is out of form but has come from nowhere before and mcdowell and rose have had good solid seasons too</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>picks ></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>dustin<span style="color: red;"> JOHNSON</span></b> > top player and has twice been close to winning a major previously; has returned from injury this season and won the St Jude Fedex event - missed the cut at the US Open but finished 9th at The Open last month - currently going well this week too so is in good nick it seems</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">has made the cut in 11 of 13 majors which is a good sign; he also has a decent record when in contention - high percentage of wins relative to 2nds and 3rds compared with other players</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">has won on tour 6 times and once each year for 5 yrs since turning pro in 2007 (matching tiger in that respect)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">missed cut in this event last yr but was 5th and 10th prior to that; also has 2 career wins at pebble beach in the AT&T event</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">thus, he lives locally in myrtle beach, is a consistent winner, knows what to do at the business end of an event, hits it miles, is confident, has been close before to winning a major, etc etc.. all points to what should be a really good week for DJ and perhaps his first major</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">available at <b>33/1</b> and that is very tempting as I would rate him about a 20/1 shot or better (30 betfair)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>graeme <span style="color: red;">MCDOWELL</span></b> > having a stellar season with regard to the majors, finishing 12th at augusta, 2nd in the US Open and 5th in The Open recently - add a 2nd place at the arnold palmer event and he has obviously had a really solid year and seems to have benefited from picking and choosing events; is gearing himself around the majors and could complete a terrific effort in them with a win here</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ranked 2nd for accuracy off the tee he should be able to set himself up nicely to hit his irons in to these greens - again, he is highly ranked for approaches and the only thing probably stopping him winning here would be a few missed shortish putts - if he can get the flat stick working then he should be one of the ones to relish the conditions and won't be hampered by the breezes like some others perhaps</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">might be a big ask to again feature in a major but I remember him really stepping up a few yrs ago in the ryder cup and you could see him start to believe that he was actually a top player and </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">deserved to be competing in the big events; that confidence has made the difference and he can be in the mix on sunday afternoon.. 40/1 fixed / betfair looks decent indeed</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>matt <span style="color: red;">KUCHAR</span></b> > having been on tour for 11 yrs or so he really has stepped up in recent years to become a top player - superbly consistent and was in danger of becoming a nearly man almost having peppered his record with top 10s but without winning as many events as he should have until he went and won the players championship this year</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">that was a big victory and followed a 3rd at augusta - he has since finished 9th at The Open too so is really starting to post good performances in the big events as well as consistently making cuts (22 on the trot); has posted seven top 10s this season and has superb stats too being top ranked for scoring average and par 4 performance and highly ranked in scrambling too which well help this week</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">chance to notch a major and cement his position as probably the most consistent player around these days, <b>40/1</b> (42 betfair) looks too high again and since he lives up the coast at sea island he is definitely worth backing this week too</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>luke <span style="color: red;">DONALD</span></b> > usually shy away a bit from the market leaders but being a major you would expect the cream to rise to the crop - of the mcilroy, donald, westwood triumvirate I often pick luke as he is the number 1 player for me in the world - consistent and with such a terrific all-round game</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">he really needs a major on his CV and quickly or else there will always be that question mark on his record - has come a bit closer in recent times but doesn't do himself justice in the big 4 events really; did manage a 5th in the Open and elsewhere was 6th in the Players and won the Transitions too so another successful campaign for sure but he needs to win a big one - he was 8th last yr at Atlanta Athletic</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">stats are great - ok, his distance off the tee is relatively poor but he concentrates on being accurate and with his amazingly good short game (probably the best there is for consistency) he will always be knocking on the door - this may not be the best course for him but he is worth backing at <b>17</b> betfair as he is probably the best bet of the top 5</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>final pick is between mahan, bradley, colsaerts and possibly kaymer although the latter's form hasn't been good enough to warrant my money; any of these have a good shout- might have to go with both mahan and colsaerts being a major and 6 places are covered each-way</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>hunter <span style="color: red;">MAHAN</span></b> > needs to chip in a couple of times or have a really good week with the putter as that's probably what will stop him doing well here - classy player and great ball-striker - terrific stats with high rankings in accuracy striking etc... has performed well in majors and won both the WGC accenture matchplay and the shell houston open this year so having a great season in that respect> looks reasonable at <b>45/1</b> best (47 betfair)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>nicolas <span style="color: red;">COLSAERTS</span></b> > the long-hitting belgian is having another really good yr after improving so much last yr - won the volvo matchplay and has sprinkled top 10s on his record - has done ok when crossing the pond with a 27th in the US Open (76 final round took the shine off a bit)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">great 7th in the Open and has really stepped up his game, maybe high enough to challenge here - stats are good and probably just needs to drop under 30putts a round to compete as distance, GIR and scrambling are all really good > available at<b> 80/1</b> with youwin (60 betfair)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>mention for bradley who is obviously peaking nicely with this week's win; would be really hard to win consecutively and to pick up 2 majors in your first 5 attempts would be staggering so probably worth avoiding now and more so as the 66/1 has gone</i></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>summary ></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I always tend to trade tiger separately as I have mentioned many times before - his game is good but still questions over his consistency// he could play averagely and still be top 10 though such is his ability - if his putter works well and he keeps his solid tee to green game from last week then he will be a contender for sure and the 8/1 looks generous... I will avoid for now but expect a top 10 definitely</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">DJ looks the one for me so going in on him - to add to the above picks I would have tiger, maybe someone like kyle stanley or aaron baddeley to surprise a bit and make the top 10, and one of my traders to hang around long enough - perhaps pettersson / cabrera-bello / noren.. cab-bello was a good trade for me last week as backed him at 380 and got out at 15 on friday (never confident he would keep going!) - did leave some on him hoping but not to be.. noren is long and can be spectacular, will trade him as he is over 400 now</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">can also see an old boy somewhere (verplank and toms did well last yr) and john daly may appear up there briefly as he is playing well - da points could be worth watching too as although not in form, this course should suit him</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>trading ></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>HAAS</b> > such a likeable bloke, great player too with good all-round game, not been in great form but can find a performance from nowhere - already won this yr after last year's heroics> <b>100</b> betfair</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>PETTERSSON</b> > 5 time tour winner who has the knack of winning from nowhere every now and then, north carolina resident and great putter - might be time to make an appearance in the top 5 or 10 in a major? > <b>125</b> betfair</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>VJ SINGH</b> > the old-timer is in decent nick and may be worth a trade, currently <b>180</b> - cant sink the putts these days but he may have a reasonable start and be worth a quick back to lay if he can drop below 100</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">keeping an eye on the following > <b>Cabrera-Bello 200, Noren 390, Olesen 230, Stallings 300 </b>as all could have good starts and drop a bit although would expect to lay them if they drop sub 100 as doubt they will go too low</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span><br />
<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">edit: <b>stanley</b> at 150 added, pettersson now 160, haas down to 85, VJ out to 190, <b>noren </b>at 410 added and <b>daly</b> at 405 added</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>top 5 or top 10 bets to follow later on..</i></span></div>
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<br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-2843673357448139222012-07-31T14:14:00.003+01:002012-07-31T14:14:33.444+01:00world records data article<div>
<b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">click this link for the history of world records as issued by the guardian newspaper 31 july 2012 >></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/jul/31/olympics-2012-data-world-records-history-interactive" target="_blank">history of world records</a></span></b><script type="text/javascript">
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</script>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-77127426568021758892012-07-16T14:07:00.000+01:002012-07-17T08:31:17.698+01:00open championship<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF0s3gxMPWIMppXErjlu0xWkNukghzjbYUgzyeBxFvwCvfSHCq1kmuMTtqXl2vInoPFxfnT2duCKpYeO1Zu7GXwqICQrDSPM69Y3nwJwaW7mqekueLpcEQCmQLTd_buQtFpgb2mA/s1600/Royal-Lytham1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF0s3gxMPWIMppXErjlu0xWkNukghzjbYUgzyeBxFvwCvfSHCq1kmuMTtqXl2vInoPFxfnT2duCKpYeO1Zu7GXwqICQrDSPM69Y3nwJwaW7mqekueLpcEQCmQLTd_buQtFpgb2mA/s320/Royal-Lytham1.jpg" width="320" /></a><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">off to lytham for the 141st OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP this week and the third major of the year..</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">my tips for the majors are not normally over impressive unfortunately so I'm not going to over-analyse this one and go with initial thoughts with a dash of common sense regarding the likely conditions...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">most bookies paying 6 or 7 places but I'll use betfair as always</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">going to ignore the market leaders as not over-keen on them; obviously they are class acts but there is the odd doubt and the prices don't really appeal in an event which has so many potential winners - granted the winner will probably tick the boxes so will be experienced, calm, accurate, good under pressure, etc etc and that tends to point to all the 'main men'but in recent times plenty of unfancied and young golfers have shown they can step up and with the scoring these days (courtesy of modern equipment) then there's more chance of a long-shot coming through</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have a feeling that the weather will either make a mockery of it or it will remain calm enough for it to be fairly easy in which case the pins will probably be stuck in tricky spots meaning a lot of luck will be required</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">this could well be a weird week with some big names missing the cut perhaps; might be worth some brave bets and looking at rory, tiger perhaps there? common sense would mean donald westy should make the top 5 really but who knows? could be a strange one and don't be surprised to see some unlikely names up there this week</span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>tips are ></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>martin<span style="color: red;"> LAIRD</span></b> > has improved his game no end since late 09 or so and has established himself on the US Tour; has won twice and has had some decent finishes in big events with 2nd places in the Players this year and the Barclays previously; bit corny picking a Scot but should be at home and is in good form with a respectable effort last week in the Scottish Open - is ranked way down on accuracy on the US Tour but is top 10 for GIR surprisingly so knows how to find the putting surface regularly.. can putt well and if he is on song then he should feature and looks over-priced at<b> 130</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>francesco <span style="color: red;">MOLINARI </span></b>> terrific from tee to green and really should have won recently but has played so well; whether he can maintain this and really make a mark in a major is debatable and his price has been shot to pieces but... and it's a big but as he struggles to string 4 rounds together, he is in top form and has the game to do well - add in some luck and he may be a solid each way shout,<b> 50</b> on b/f</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>graeme <span style="color: red;">MCDOWELL</span></b><span style="color: red;"> </span>> under the radar when he played really well at the US Open finishing 2nd, has a 2nd previously this year on the US Tour and with the likely weather this week should be one of the more likely winners in the market - ranked 2nd in the US for accuracy off the tee which is superb and should really help, par 4 scoring is really good too and just needs to sink some small putts and he may well be looking to add another major to his haul.. has the experience,form, ability, etc and worth backing at <b>36</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>rafael <span style="color: red;">CABRERA-BELLO</span></b> > backed him a few times as he seems to have stepped up from being a potentially good player to a top class performer on the euro tour this yr - in good form and was showing well last week too until a poor hole stopped him on sunday; price is probably right but if he can carry the confidence of a tour win and recent good efforts then he may well sneak up that leaderboard and looks a really good top 10 shout at least for me.. <b>220</b> currently</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>mark</b> <b><span style="color: red;">WILSON</span></b> > <b>650 </b>is a daft price really for a player who is really under-rated; another neat tidy player who could really do well here if his game is on song and he gets a bit of luck - granted the price reflects his recent form with plenty of MCs but he is extremely accurate and can putt well - has won 5 times on the US Tour so warrants respect and could be one of those players that make you wonder where he came from when he leads at the weekend (hopefully!); has a terrible record in majors and big events actually so maybe this really is a wild stab in the dark but he is still worth a look for me</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>jim<span style="color: red;"> FURYK</span></b> > golden oldie time and mr furyk could well be worth a dabble at about 55 this week; has made 13 cuts of 15 this yr, 9 times making the top 25, 4 top 10s and of course a 4th in the US Open - super accurate, a great scrambler and putting really well; has the demeanour to prosper if it gets tough this week - looks a really solid shout and may just cap a superb career in style if he believes</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>top 10 market > </b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">john <b>SENDEN </b>> really has no chance of winning as just can't get the wins he deserves but has a great tidy game which should really suit here; can see him being up there and then fading but good top 10 possibility > 12.5 betfair</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ben <b>CURTIS</b> > new improved version in recent times has rekindled interest in curtis who of course is a previous open winner; has the game for this course and being accurate, tidy and a good par4 scorer he should be up there > 9 betfair</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">justin <b>ROSE</b> > I remember being at lytham in 96 when he made his astonishing debut as a 17yr old - course should suit and he looks solid enough to get up amongst them > 3.55 is a tad short so may avoid this</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ross <b>FISHER</b> > didn't play much until last few mths but has come along nicely and with an excellent tee to green game he really should be looking to make a mark this week - fancy him to sneak up into the top 10 > 8 on betfair</span></div>
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<span style="color: #274e13; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>trading > </b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #274e13; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">can't resist doing some early trading and picking these in the hope they get off to flyers ></span></div>
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<span style="color: #274e13; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">marc <b>LEISHMAN </b>> should do well on this links course and tough player > <b>550</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #274e13; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">richie <b>RAMSAY</b> > mainly a hunch, <b>500</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: #274e13; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">pablo<b> LARRAZABAL</b> > on him already at 470 but <b>320</b> now after playing well last wk, real hit or miss player</span></div>
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<span style="color: #274e13; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ryo<b> ISHIKAWA</b> > talented although not really in form, if on song then could drop quickly, <b>500</b> </span></div>
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<span style="color: #274e13; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">snedeker and fraser are others worth looking at...</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-50171201081941032602012-07-15T07:47:00.001+01:002012-07-15T07:47:34.302+01:00open championship golf challenge<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">off to Lytham this week for the <b><span style="color: red;">OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP</span></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">click here for the free golf challenge on<b> OLBG</b> where you can win<b> CASH!</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><a href="http://www.olbg.com/forum/topic14_41601.html" target="_blank">OPEN GOLF CHALLENGE</a></b></span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-61153134377025247392012-06-13T05:17:00.002+01:002012-06-13T05:17:25.103+01:00us open golf challenge (olbg)<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">pop over to<b> <span style="color: red;">OLBG</span></b><span style="color: red;"> </span>and enter the<b><span style="color: red;"> US OPEN GOLF CHALLENGE</span></b></span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">cash up for grabs let alone the glory of winning!!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">link is here >></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.olbg.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=41178&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>US OPEN GOLF CHALLENGE</b></span></a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-32494277871217843482012-05-16T08:28:00.000+01:002012-05-16T08:28:43.398+01:00byron nelson championship<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">and back toTexas this week we go... the <b>BYRON NELSON</b> Championship held at Las Collinas golf course in Irving</span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">now this is a tricky course so should really benefit those who have great course management skills and know how to think their way around the course; calm, mature players should prosper although there have been some winners who have won on debut (Bradley last yr a prime example)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">a par 70 so not too many 5s to gobble birdies up on - this should mean that the shorter, more accurate players do well indeed and those who have good records here back that up</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">this course has had changes made in 08 and in the last 2 years the greens have had their 'air sub system' re-done as per Augusta and thus the greens are now truer and more consistent apparently - this is also borne out by the fact that the putting stats in last couple of years have been more relevant whereas previously they weren't and it was a case of hitting greens in reg. > so, this points me towards the more relaxed,laid-back golfers and those who can hit their greens and also are good putters (Pettersson springs to mind straight away)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">it is often windy too here and this makes scoring tricky so always worth considering those who play well in the breeze as well as locals or those who often raise their game or get better results in the lone star state</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>picks ></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">adam <b>SCOTT </b>> fairly solid pick his week in this relatively weak field; went for him last week and he started brightly but fell away unfortunately - has won this before (3rd also in just 3 starts) so has plenty of ticks in the right boxes this week (ranked 1 in par 4 birdies).. seems to be warming up for an assault on the world top 10 and a win here would be a terrific step up (long overdue too) - only worry is him missing a few tiddlers but hopefully the man from adelaide will be the one this week > win bet at <b>14</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">carl<b> PETTERSSON</b> > caught my eye years ago as one of those players who plods along not doing much but then finds a win every now and again - has the knack of putting it together for all 4 rounds every now and again - has won once this yr so maybe that was it for 2012 but he is in excellent form and is a renowned putter - ranked 1 for par 4 birdies (as is scott above) and that is useful here on a par 70; putting well as ever and a good each way shout if he can hang on to his form for one more week > <b>30</b> betfair</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ryan<b> PALMER</b> > local lad and that clinches it for me - back him a lot as he is another who plods along then picks a win from nowhere every now and again - has been in good form and results could be even better recently but for weak final rounds; 4th at the Zurich a couple of weeks back and more than capable of putting well and notching a 4th career win here - I'm sure he would love to and should be well supported.. and lost in a play-off here last year which confirms all the above! > <b>48</b> is good on betfair</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">jhonattan <b>VEGAS</b> > texas resident hitting form nicely it seems - played well last week at the Players and is hitting plenty of greens in the right numbers, and is sinking putts beautifully too - the right combo for this course although his stats aren't good this yr, needs to keep it a bit straighter and keep the putter hot or else he could blow out here - terrific rookie year with that win and finding it tougher this yr but signs are good after top 10 last week - risky bet but odds are good at <b>80</b> betfair</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">brian <b>DAVIS</b> > another in good form and seems to play well here managing a 2nd and 8th in recent yrs; has posted 4th, 4th, 13th 39th 9th and 25th in last 6 tour starts which is solid and consistent - stats arent fab but is in prime form and should go well - shot each round under 69 in 09 when 2nd here so good memories, <b>46</b> betfair just enough to tempt</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the not quite picked group this week consists of Oosty (always a threat), Rollins, Huh, Gay, Wagner, Pampling... might look to get involved with those in running (could be the ideal sort of tournament for Wagner)</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>trading</b> > </span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">odds look attractive on Harrison Frazar 110, Arjun Atwal 180, Patrick Reed 350, Will Claxton 340 so will look at those for quick starts as always</span></div>
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<span style="color: purple; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Top 10 market > </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Vegas 7.8, Atwal 13.0, Pampling 12.0 and Palmer 5.0 all attract me</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-21457243577792812952012-05-09T16:34:00.001+01:002012-05-10T09:14:13.938+01:00players championship<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">off we go to sunny Florida this week and the PGA tour's own club</span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> at Ponte Vedra is our venue</span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> - the famous<b> Sawgrass</b> course is the host as usual for the<b> <span style="color: red;">Players Championship</span></b>, a terrific event and one of the best on tour</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzKYrLl87clr-fWW-w1foX4LHdN5nNsI94uMZiuxIP9DEfhh4dihvz6B-IHlI_XPCBiDAMmbDTmBI9670Jp-SbkpHY6AkdSKUTqT3KGCvaNRNLJUm1Zq24LKNmA0-qyJVW8rf7BQ/s1600/sawgrass.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></a><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">hugely anticipated and with the world's top players all competing together for once - should be a great week of golf</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">this is a great course with the infamous 17th too which will no doubt provide some thrills and spills as always; scoring is actually quite good on this hole but obviously a misjudged club could mean a wet ball - overall, Sawgrass tends to favour accuracy off the tee, those who manage good GIR stats and you will need to scramble really well here or else you will get punished too - you can get away with some wayward shots but usually the triumphant golfers are those who have a straight hitting week and set up as many birdies as they can and don't pressure themselves in having to get it up and down too often</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">the way the players are scoring these days on tough courses however, it wouldn't surprise me to see 66s flying about and a winning score of at least -15 or so</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">my<b> current world rankings </b>with this week's event built in are as follows ></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">1 donald<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>12.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">2 westwood<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>15.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">3 mcilroy<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>15.17</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4 mickelson<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>15.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">5 woods<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>17.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">6 stricker</span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">24.33</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">7 oosthuizen<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>24.33</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">8 mahan<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>24.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">9 kaymer<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>25.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">10 scott<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>25.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">11 simpson<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>26.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">12 poulter<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>26.83</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">13 els<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>27.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">14 rose<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>29.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">15 haas<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>29.83</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">16 dufner<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>30.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">17 kuchar<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>30.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">18 hanson<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>30.67</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">19 bradley<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>31.17</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">20 watney<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>33.33</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">21 garcia<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>33.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">22 wilson<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>34.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">23 choi<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>34.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">24 fran molinari<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>35.17</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">the clear value if you think they will do well is on haas and wilson as they are big odds compared with their relative ranking although my value rating shows them to be nothing more than reasonable as their form has dipped a bit; my rankings show donald as the top-rated player here as his scrambling is the clincher - westy just above rory as his tee to green game is so good currently (both are fabulous in this respect) > this is where my rankings include a bias towards the current event amongst other factors</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">micko and woods don't attract me too much this week although woods just missed the cut last week and westy was 1 shot better at halfway and then ended top 5 after a good weekend's scoring - woods has missed just 8 career cuts although you wouldn't think it to see some of the analysis (digging!) and is still likely to find his game and make a lot of people look silly... too risky for me however as I thought it was just his putting to work on pre-masters but he seems to have lost his way with his swing again</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">the ones who interest me are good ball-strikers, good scramblers, hit plenty of greens and are in form... els, poulter, scott, molinari all tick some boxes and there are a few others at longer prices who do likewise such as moore, curtis, molder, etc</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">garcia has a good record here but I never back him and after his own admission at the masters he's even more of an 'avoid' for me especially at the price he is; mahan probably won't scramble well enough here although is two-time winner this yr and drives so well; bradley has gone off the boil and a few others have either had their good spell or aren't in good enough form to win in a field like this</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">good cases for a lot of players however and the prices are superb with all these big names at the top pushing the odds out on decent players way down the list</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">luke <b><span style="color: red;">DONALD</span></b> > of the top 3 I really can't decide as I'm not sure about rory here, westy will be the pick from tee to green but can't sink them when it matters so I think donald will be my pick - this course can suit shorter hitters so no problem there, his superb short game may be the difference here and the odd shot saved over others could be the difference - I think he will also relish a chance to really make a statement as he faltered at the masters > his odds are higher than usual of course which helps and he managed T4 here last yr too... really expecting westy to go off all guns blazing and get the lead but then stutter and donald to sneak up and nick it, <b>15.5</b> betfair</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">adam<span style="color: red;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">SCOTT</span> </b>> could be another flatter to deceive week but he has a great record here and has won previously - is in really good consistent form and may relish being under the radar a bit currently.. 12 consecutive cuts on this tour, top 10 at augusta, stats are showing well for scoring, mid to long putting, GIR (8th) and so on > a lot more experienced these days obviously and seems to be ticking over nicely - I think he has the highest percentage of rounds under par here who have played a few times or more.. <b>40</b> betfair is attractive for a previous winner (2 top 10s also)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">ian<b> <span style="color: red;">POULTER</span></b> > odds out to <b>90</b> betfair now and that's good for poults who is confident, in good form again with recent good efforts (3rd at arnie palmer inv and 7th masters) and another who has played well here before (2nd in 09) - also loves the big tourneys and often impresses when up against it, not sure if he is likely to win but expect him to give a very good account and a confident shout for the top 10 for me</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">ernie<b> <span style="color: red;">ELS</span></b> > another experienced player in great form, close to winning this year and playing well - might need a bit of luck but could be rolling back the years here if he can get the putter to work - usually plays well here and his accuracy should help him compete, <b>55</b> is tempting for the big easy who does like a pete dye course</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">ryan <b><span style="color: red;">MOORE</span></b>> hitting form nicely and big price at <b>120</b>; often plays well for a few weeks so hoping to keep his current run going (ignoring a blowout 85 at houston in the 3rd round) - has been 4th 5th 8th in last 4 events.. usually makes the cut here so about time he made the frame</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">francesco<span style="color: red;"> <b>MOLINARI</b></span> > superb tee to green game, relaxed and in form with a great win last week (may have been favourite but still have to win) shooting 65 to win in style on a tough course - played here 2 yrs ago and managed a top 10 so why not... <b>75</b> is too high for a euro player who prospers over the pond it seems</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">going with 6 picks rather than dropping one, Crane and Kuchar are others who you could expect to do well.. add Mcilroy/Westy in and there's a top 10 for me although there may be a few from nowhere who do well this week - Oosty could easily have been in my picks and I may watch him and look to add during the tourney - Curtis also was close to being picked as backed him couple of times recently with success</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">there are plenty who came close to being picked > oosty and curtis as mentioned, styricker of course as well, watney showing a return to form, mcdowell who plays well here, kuchar who collects top 10s for fun but can't go that bit further oftne enough.. and so on... going with the ones I feel are best primed however...</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>trading </b>> some cracking prices for some not bad players > will be going with a few in the hope they drop rapidly after good starts..</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>COUCH </b>@1000 like this price a lot for decent accurate driver who can putt... likes florida too so if he clicks he could be a decent trader, only won the one time on tour (06) and hasn't done much this year but worth a small dabble for me</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>MAYFAIR</b> @ 950 quick swansong perhaps, decent scrambling will help</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>KIRK</b> @ 850 too high price for decent player</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>MOLDER</b> @ 310 stats tick a lot of boxes so another decent shout, game should really suit being accurate and good short scrambler</span></div>
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<b>top 5 & 10 markets </b>></div>
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looking for some decent bets here as have started doing these markets recently with great success...</div>
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top 10<b> Moore</b> at 9.2 for sure, <b>Poulter</b> 7.4 and <b>Curtis</b> 7.6, <b>Els</b> at 5.9 all look decent to me and could trade a lot lower (I like getting out of these when the market drops rapidly on them as they often go quite low)</div>
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</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-29529321736153235092012-05-02T14:46:00.000+01:002012-05-02T14:50:35.510+01:00wells fargo championship<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">off to North Carolina this week for the excellent <b><span style="color: red;">WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP</span> </b>which was more recently known as the Wachovia Championship; this is where young Rory shot 64/62 at the weekend to win and truly announce himself on the world stage a couple of years ago</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">we have a really good field this week and with <b>Quail Hollow</b> being a tough course, this promises to be an excellent few days of golf</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">great to see the boy wonder, micko, tiger, westwood all competing and shame donald isn't there too but still a mouth-watering event - previous winners indicate that the cream usually rises to the top in this championship</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">this course demands everything, good accuracy off the tee as you will struggle if you aren't top 30 or so here, GIR as always or else you have to be a top scrambler, and the greens really find you out so good putters will more than most weeks prosper here</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">so a good all-round effort basically and hence the consistent top players do well - course has got a bit easier perhaps in recent yrs although this week may have longer rough apparently - mcilroy and westwood should find the greens well but their flat stick will determine their results hence rory being a few pts lower</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">tiger is a conundrum as ever - if he has his swing back then can he read the putts? augusta was a strange one from him as he looked to be back</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">micko is hard to call but is starting to look value when checking his record here and his results this season</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">young players can do well here too however although they do have to be either already good (rory) or of top potential</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have updated my rankings so will have a look at them although I have a few in mind to pick and one or two locals who may well put in extra effort being on home turf</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>my rankings ></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #990000;">1 mcilroy<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>10.33</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">2 woods<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>12.00</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">3 mickelson<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>14.67</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">4 westwood<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>18.83</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">5 mahan<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>22.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">6 simpson<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>24.83</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">7 haas<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>26.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">8 bradley<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>29.50</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">9 z johnson<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>31.67</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">10 furyk<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>34.17</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">11 van pelt<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>35.50</span></div>
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* this is the top 11 of my top 25 world ranked currently... thus my rankings which include course / event form as well as current form and mental strength etc indicate that these would be the finishing positions > what I then do is look for the prices and what I think and pick my golfers from there...</div>
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* <b>mickelson </b>hasn't won here but has a great consistent record,<b> tiger</b> can obviously win if he has regained his swing which looked great pre-masters, <b>rory</b> should be fav and is, and so on</div>
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> looking at betfair, <b>haas</b> looks over-priced at 55 but he has lost a bit of form; <b>simpson</b> likewise is a bit generous at 36 as being a wake forest grad and a member here you would expect him to do better than his form dictates</div>
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><b> furyk</b> is just 25 on betfair but that is explained by his terrific record here - he is definitely worth looking at as the rankings show him to be good value performance wise but his price already reflects that</div>
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> outside of these top 11 here, my rankings show good weeks for<b> huh, byrd, villegas </b>so all of these are worth watching; byrd may have the 'new dad' feelgood factor which often can inspire/relax players; huh looks to have great potential and villegas is hinting at a return to form and this course should suit him</div>
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* local players of interest should be simpson & haas mentioned already and<b> de jonge</b> too</div>
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* outsiders could be <b>karlsson </b>(250) who has no form but can click, a great scrambler too and capable of suddenly shooting 66s.. ken <b>duke</b> (150) has been peppering the leaderboard recently too as has <b>mathis</b> (430) and will <b>claxton</b> is quite a talented player so worth watching (470)</div>
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<b><span style="color: blue;">picks ></span></b></div>
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think I will swerve rory and unsure of tiger so micko gets the vote at the top...</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">MICKELSON</span> </b>> terrific record here but no W on his record - could be about to change as he may well sneak through and win here if he can keep the wild holes away and sink a few - record and form are so good so he gets the nod for me at<b> 13 </b>betfair</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">FURYK </span>> 25</b> isn't high but can't ignore his record and the fact he will probably plod around without any fuss - seems to be bang on with his game again and sinking putts that matter... a boring but solid pick and he should continue his terrific record here</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">SIMPSON</span> </b>> perhaps a chance for the local lad to shine in a decent field and regain a bit of the glow he gained last year when playing so well so regularly; top 15 last wk and has been top 10 a few times already this year, <b>36</b> b/f</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">CURTIS</span></b> > having won 2 weeks ago and made the top 15 last wk I will ride the crest with ben and as he has a 2nd place finish here previously (proving amongst others that shorter hitters can do well here) he could well nip into the frame again as he is currently playing well with great stats for accuracy GIR etc - <b>95</b> betfair</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">BYRD</span></b> > often back this guy and he knows how to win - may be off the boil with a few wks off but that new dad factor really can help! <b>90</b> is attractive for last year's runner-up - couple of top 10s this yr and played well at augusta</div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b>trading</b> > definitely going to see how we go with <b>De JONGE</b> (sign of form last week and decent here previously too, hoping for a fast start at 130</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b>DUKE</b> as in good touch and again good here previously, 150</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;"><b>VILLEGAS </b>180 as he may be picking up again and his tee to green game is solid</span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000;">not sure about karlsson so<b> HUH</b> at 100 completes the traders, talented young player and in form</span></div>
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top10 bets > HAAS at about 5 is decent as I think he will be up there, can also get HUH CURTIS and BYRD at about 8.2 to 9 which all attract</div>
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top 5 markets > furyk 5.9 and simpson 8.4 are appealing although smaller stakes for me</div>
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</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-76630632152512796662012-04-25T14:25:00.001+01:002012-04-25T14:25:16.820+01:002 goal gap backing recap<div>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">here's the thread I did last month about backing big prices on the footie - especially/usually when there is a 2 goal gap > ie when a team goes 2-0 up you back the losing team (or lay the winning team) on the basis that if they score the next goal, then there will be a good profit to be made as the market contracts</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">have a look...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">this week has seen some cracking examples with man utd going up by 2 goals twice!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">and then barca being 1-01 last night to win (draw matched at huge price too) and chelsea scoring the next goal.. and the one after that too!</span></div>
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<b><a href="http://gibberworld.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/trading-footie-at-2-0.html" target="_blank">backing big prices (2 goal gap)</a></b></span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">all this needs is a decent over-reaction from the market and then if the NEXT GOAL is scored by the losing team and bringing them back into the game, then there is money to be made!!</span></div>
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<br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-59812410913519969992012-04-25T13:12:00.000+01:002012-04-25T13:16:52.208+01:00zurich classic<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
off to louisiana this week for the tricky <b style="color: red;">ZURICH CLASSIC</b>, a tough test for a change for these lads as this course is long and has fairly tricky greens too; the rough isn't too bad though so still good chances for some low scoring but hopefully a truer test of decent ball-strikers and good putters</div>
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<br /></div>
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the prices don't really attract however and thus not much interest although there are a few who catch my eye at half-decent odds.. looking more to trade this week as good chance of some performances from triple-figure players perhaps</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
tentaive picks (ie small stakes probably!) ></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
peter <b>HANSON</b> > <b>55</b> is big enough for the perenially under-rated swede; in good form for a while and obviously put up a good effort at the masters - hopefully the jaunt to china won't affect him too much and he can do well here as his game is in good shape (on at 55 yesterday but 50 now)</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
hunter <b>HAAS</b> > could be a good longshot if he manages to avoid the killer 77s he often finds.. back into a bit of form and played ok here last year, not a bad putter from long distance which should help here too - decent at 180 b/f (on at 180 although 150 or so now)</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
ernie <b>ELS </b>> 60 again looks decent for the big easy who may be relaxed again after his pursuit of a masters place - has been playing well and could be due a further good spell as has the long game for sure</div>
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last 2 pics are tentative as not too sure about them.. <b>PIERCY</b> at 100 is possible as he has the ability I feel and backed him last wk when he got close with a 65 but not close enough (dropped from 80 to 40 mid tourney), <b>CHALMERS</b> at 75 may not be long but has done well here and has a great neat game / also in better form and more confident after a good aussie summer</div>
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had thoughts about Crane (70) and Palmer (100) but will leave them for now</div>
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> not going with as big stakes as usual as this tournament has a real unknown feel about it and I will look daft when the top 5 is full of those at the top of the market probably! but happy with these mentioned above and definitely looking for good trades this week</div>
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<div style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<b>trading</b> > these all attract me for various reasons so will be looking for them to start well and provide some profit or a free bet at least</div>
<span class="postbody"><br style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
lamely 800
hunch bet purely! (now 870)</span><br style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
adams 450 always catches my eye and this price is big (down to 350 now)</span><br style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
mathis 310
off the back of a good effort last week (out to 380 now)</span><br style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
taylor 300
hunch bet and did well couple of wks back for me (230 now)</span><br style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="color: #990000; font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
couch 450
should go well if he gets his (usually) good putting back on song</span> <span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(340 now)</span></span><br />
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<i><span class="postbody">* prices altered on b/f as I drafted this article yesterday</span></i></div>
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<span class="postbody">quick post about this week's BALLANTINE'S Championship in Korea - this is a superb course and should be a tough test - there looks to be some standout prices here although such a
hard tour to call
usually</span></div>
<div style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span class="postbody">
<br />
not interested in scott at his price and couple near the top of the
market are no value... expect a decent show from the korean players but
the odds take that into account maybe too much already
<br />
<br />
anyway,
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">McGRANE</span> ><span style="font-weight: bold;"> 80</span>
is generous indeed for mcgrane who should enjoy this course and also
any inclement weather as that massive victory in the storms a few yrs
ago in this part of the world lingers on; finding some good form and
expect him to go well - would back him at near half this price so happy
indeed with 80 (13th here last yr)
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">DERKSEN</span> > <span style="font-weight: bold;">85</span>
on b/f and that's good enough for this guy who seems to really enjoy
playing in asia and often appears from nowhere to do well - top 20 last
wk and good chance at highish odds here, 13th here last yr also
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">FISHER</span> > <span style="font-weight: bold;">90</span>
on b/f looks interesting; not sure what his plans are as he didnt play
much at all until the masters which was strange but still played ok
there - his great tee to green game should mean he finds enough birdie
opps here as it's a tough course for anyone wayward; risky bet as bit of
unknown factor with so little golf be he was a consistently good player
a couple of yrs back and may be worth a dabble - MC last wk with 71/72
but good warm-up for this one perhaps
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">DUBUISSON </span>> young french lad
hits it long and is in good form with an excellent consistent effort
last wk (all four rounds in the 60s), has potential to be a decent
player indeed and if he can continue that good run then he is worth an
interest this wk at <span style="font-weight: bold;">55</span>
<br />
<br />
final pick was between Kruger, Lowry, Noren, Coetzee and Olesen all of
whom I have backed in recent times - might watch them all and see if I
can get better price early in the event
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">
<br />
trading-wise > expecting a good home show so have dabbled on j-k mo,
s-h park, s-s hong, d-h kim all at around 3-400 and looking for quick
drop and out</span></span></div>
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<div>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">brief picks from me for this week's less than stellar event in texas... weak field and very open so plenty who could nick a maiden win here or surprise at decent odds - hard to call so smallish stakes this week... course is long and has undulating greens so no real bias at all other than for length and someone in form who can get it close enough to have a few birdie attempts - anyone short or wayward will consistently be relying on their short game to save par which is hard to do over 4 days</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">picks are ></span></div>
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<b><span style="color: red; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">PALMER</span></b> > 40 isn't great for someone not in good form but have always liked Ryan Palmer as he can find a win from nowhere every now and again (3 tour wins 04 08 and 10, similar to kuchar who has 3 tour wins!) - texan lad so will presumably show up well as he has in the past in his home state; played ok at houston recently and being a good mid range putter he could find some form here and get in amongst them, happy to be on a proven winner at 40 </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">PIERCY</span></b> > should do well on this course, won at reno-tahoe last yr which is similar so that bodes well, played well at houston and was 5th in the transitions, good long putter which will help here - decent shout at 80 </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">WALKER</span></b> > local lad as lives here so no idea how often he may have plaed this track but should do better than usual with all the home town support - has had 3 top 10s already this yr but I'm wary that he did the same last yr before fading so hope he can maintain the form a bit longer this time > 55 Betfair is enough to tempt </span></div>
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<b><span style="color: red; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">STADLER</span></b> > in excellent recent form with 3 top 10s in last 4 events played, needs to improve like this or become a journeyman - overdue being in contention on a sunday and hope that recent run will continue here - good putter too, 50 on Betfair </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">had few thoughts about Huh, Wagner and even Delaet (course suits but out of form) - <b><span style="color: red;">WAGNER</span></b> may get some interest from me as he is a proven winner and born in texas (another with 3 career wins) </span></div>
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<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">had some requests for info on how to trade the golf so will run through an example and hopefully this will be of some help...
<br />
<br />
just using 1 player for now..<br />
<br />
*******************************************************
<br />
<br />
ok...<span style="font-weight: bold;">player A</span>
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">* price is 200 and you back for 20pts</span>
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank"></a><a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank">Betfair</a> screen will show<span style="color: green;"> 3980.00</span> under his name (use the what if? option) and <span style="color: red;">-20.00 </span>under all other golfers
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">this means you have a potential profit of
3980pts if he wins (green) and a loss of 20pts (red) if he loses (ie any
other player wins)</span>
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">
<br />
*******************************************************
<br />
<br />
* he plays well and price drops to 50</span>
<br />
<br />
now you can <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> him for various amounts depending on how you want to go...
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">
<br />
1/ </span><a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> him for 20pts so clearing your stake - you now have a free bet as you have balanced your staking
<br />
<br />
if he wins, you would now win 3000pts > this is 3980 from the back bet above less your <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> bet of 980pts (20pts @ 49.0 = 980pt liability)
<br />
<br />
your screen will show <span style="color: green;">3000.00</span> under player A ingreen and <span style="color: green;">0.00</span> in green under all other players
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">so you have no loss risk and still have a big potential win on player A</span>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">2/</span> you could <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> him for 40pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 40pts so you are effectively 20pts in profit on your staking
<br />
<br />
if he wins, you would now win 2020pts > this is the original 3980pts back bet less your <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> bet of 1960pts (40pts @ 49.0 = 1960pt liability)
<br />
<br />
your screen would show <span style="color: green;">2020.00</span> in green under player A and<span style="color: green;"> 20.00</span> in green on all other players
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">so you have a green screen meaning profit on any result; a big win on player A still and small return on any other player
<br />
</span>
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">3/</span> you could <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> him for 70pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 70 making a profit on staking of 50pts
<br />
<br />
if he wins, you would now win 550pts > this is the original 3980pts back less your <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> bet of 3430pts (70pts @ 49.0 = 3430 liability)
<br />
<br />
your screen would show <span style="color: green;">550.00</span> under player A and <span style="color: green;">50.00</span> under all other players
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">
<br />
so you have a green screen with profit on all outcomes; a decent win on player A and nice return on all other players</span>
<br />
<br />
*******************************************************
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">* this is if price drops to 50 which is 4
times less - if the price then dropped to say 20 you have a 'tenfold'
drop.. these are obviously great as your options are the same but you
can use bigger amounts</span>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">eg </span>price of 20 to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> now... assuming you didn't <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off at 50, you can <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> for 200pts now and have a 180pt profit on any outcome at all
<br />
<br />
> your original 200pt back was 3980pts profit and your <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> now of 200pts @ 19.0 = 3800pt liability, so 3980 less 3800 = 180pt profit on your player A
<br />
<br />
> and your original 20pt back less your new 200pt <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> = 180pt profit on any other player
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">> ideal situation as you have a good profit (9 times your original stake!) whatever the result</span>
<br />
<br />
******************************************************
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">* if the price drops more and down to say 5 then you are laughing as you can <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> for 800pts and have a green screen of 780pts on any result</span>
<br />
<br />
> this is your 3980pt original back profit, less your new 3200pt <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> bet liability (800 @ 4.0 = 3200pts)
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">
<br />
you now have a very good profit on any result (39 times your original stake)</span>
<br />
<br />
******************************************************
<br />
</span></span></div>
<div>
<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">this is an example of how you can avoid losing your stake, or make a
profit on all outcomes - the levels depend on the prices and how much
you <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> for
<br />
<br />
simple rules are >
<br />
<br />
* practice it until you know what you are doing
<br />
<br />
* use stakes you can afford to lose (ie your bank for the event) so
there is no pressure or need to recoup meaning daft decisions
<br />
<br />
* decide if you want to make small profits all-round or have free bets and potential big profit on one player
<br />
<br />
* be flexible and assess all the relevant factors - don't get drawn into
a fixed price to hit<br />
<br />
>> and hopefully you will pick the right players and trade them to
make good profits... this builds the bank up and then you can either
use bigger stakes or select more players</span></span><script type="text/javascript">
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<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-77938698141577291602012-04-02T15:27:00.000+01:002012-04-02T15:27:25.420+01:00golf trading tips (part 2)<span class="postbody"><span style="color: red; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>When to back or lay?</b></span></span><div>
<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With regard to setting a <span style="font-weight: bold;">price target </span>for trading >
<br />
<br />
* It depends on many factors so I don't really have a price in mind or a
target, I look at various factors and decide accordingly... and then
maybe <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> it all off for a free bet or green screen or whatever
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">
<br />
Factors are ></span>
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">what stage of the tourney is it?
<br />
what stake did I use?
<br />
how is he playing so far?
<br />
how is the course playing/weather forecast?
<br />
what is the score in relation to others?
<br />
does he have a chance of winning?
<br />
is he a good finisher or a weekend blowout type?
<br />
is his score good or bad compared with his play quality?</span>
<br />
<br />
and so on...
<br />
<br />
Reasoning behind these points is as follows >
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">what stage of the tourney is it?</span>
<br />
<br />
This makes a big difference on <a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank"></a><a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank">Betfair</a>
obviously - if it's round 1 and the player is a big outsider then the
price will drop but not to low figures unless he has gone 4 clear etc -
eg yesterday I got barnes at 500 and 510 (average 505) and he shot a 66
which was 2 behind the leader; very well placed and his price has
dropped to 75 to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a>..
now that is instant small profit if I want it... being this early in
the tourney tho' there is a likelihood that he will start over par in
rd2 and price will fly up again
<br />
<br />
Thus, bearing in mind other factors, I would be thinking of laying this
off a lot if not all as it's early in the event - if it was rd 3 then
the price would be considerably lower and I would run more of it if not
all
<br />
<br />
(some people think if you punt at big odds and they do well then why not
run the whole lot and try and win big but that's fixed odds punting
rather than trading and I think smaller regular profit is more sensible)
<br />
<br />
Example would be Palmer when he won - I backed him at 390 and he shot 65
opening day to lead, price dropped but only to 30 I think.. then he
hung around the top of the board so he dropped to 8 or so by weekend,
then he still played well and was up there so dropped to about 3.75 by
final round as by then he had a very clear chance of winning - 18 holes
to mess up rather than say 54 so price reflected that - he was no
different scorewise to the field really from day 1 to 3 but the time
left and potential win had changed drastically
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">what stake did I use?</span>
<br />
<br />
If you use a very small stake then it's probably not worth trading too
much - if you use a considerable stake then you have more options - I
constantly strive to build the bank up so I can use a %age of it with no
worries if I lose - this then means bigger stakes so you have more
worthwhile options
<br />
<br />
eg £2 at 200 and price drops to 20 you aren't going to be hugely in
profit laying off, but if it was £20 at 200 and the price drops to 20
then you could <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off for £200 and have a £180 profit on any result or alternatively <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> for £100 and have a big potential profit on that player (£2080) and a nice £80 on everyone else
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">how is he playing so far?</span>
<br />
<br />
Has he chipped in 3 times and sunk some 50-foot putts or is he playing
really well and looking capable of going low again, that kind of thing
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">course/weather forecast?</span>
<br />
<br />
Look at who else is due to play and when ie late starters in the day,
has the wind died down, is it forecast for wind the next day, what are
tee times, is the course drying out, are the greens getting roughened up
etc all things that may affect certain players due to their type of
shot or ability in certain conditions etc
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">
<br />
score in relation to others?</span>
<br />
<br />
If the fav is 4 shots clear then the <a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank"></a><a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank">Betfair</a>
price on your outsider just wont come down, it will climb... the
winning likelihood is reduced massively... if there are a lot of players
within a few shots then equally it's hard to get the price lower - if
the field is strung out and some others at the top are lowly ranked then
the price may well drop significantly as the market will view the
winning chance as much higher
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">chance of winning?</span>
<br />
<br />
Some players can win tournaments, Palmer I mentioned I backed because he
has a record of winning occasionally from nowhere..others haven't -
this doesn't mean they won't win but the chance is what I assess - I
would rather back a player at 400 who has a win on his CV as this may
mean a quicker drop in price if he plays well as the market realises the
chance of a win is maybe higher than a maiden at 400
<br />
<br />
This also depends on whether I <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> on a sunday morning - if a player is in contention but I don't rate him winning then I will <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> and accept it if he wins... some though have the winning touch and I will probably run those
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">
<br />
good finisher or weekend blowout?</span>
<br />
<br />
As above really - some players see the winning line and choke, some go
for it... some are excellent tournament starters but can't hold on for 4
rounds.. all to do with mental strength really and affects my <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> decision
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">good or bad score?</span>
<br />
<br />
As above to how is he playing - is the score relatively good, or early
in the day, or did he play averagely but perhaps get lucky with an eagle
or two - was it a 'quality round' means did he hit a lot of GIR and
have tap-ins or did he have some luck
<br />
<br />
I assess the field scores and hole scores quickly and see if it was a
career best or just a good day at work - this means is there more in the
tank and should I keep the bet open
<br />
<br />
*****************************************************
<br />
<br />
>> This may sound a lot but it is a fairly methodical way of
assessing quickly the value of the price... I do like a price to drop by
ten times ie 100 down to 10 or 400 down to 40 - this gives me ample
room for profit all round and still keeping a big potential on the
original bet
<br />
<br />
If I get lucky (Palmer at 390 winning) then I cash in all the way..
laying off regularly when the price is low and guaranteeing decent
profit all round
<br />
<br />
If I have a decent start with someone who I'm not so confident with then
I trade and accept I may be blowing a bigger win - this can work with
short prices too ie a player may be 10 so I may back him to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> at 5... simple and not too tricky if he is the sort to often trade lower than starting price <br />
<br />
Someone like Quiros I will probably trade back and forth as he is more likely to go to 80 then back to 15!
<br />
<br />
So, in summary, there is no fixed price or target - I assess and react
accordingly due to a number of factors.. looking for a few or even one
of my trades each event to be a good 'un and to cover everything else -
and then big wins come along to make life better </span></span><script type="text/javascript">
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</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-20904897478514505152012-04-02T15:22:00.001+01:002012-07-17T15:46:48.803+01:00golf trading tips<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: red;">Golf Trading</span></span>
<br />
<br /><i>* thought I would post an article I wrote on OLBG a while back now about golf trading</i></span></span><br />
<div>
<span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i>
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">Pre-Tournament ></span></span>
<br />
<br />
Prices usually form around Monday...
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank"></a><a href="http://www.olbg.com/bookies.php?bk=6&pg=17" target="_blank">Betfair</a>
prices aren't great on Monday (often have a lot of 200 prices that will
start the tourney at 500 etc) but by Tuesday they have usually firmed
up to the correct price
<br />
<br />
You may get some movement based on well-known tipsters or forums - their picks can affect the prices sometimes
<br />
<br />
Picking pre-event is up to your knowledge mainly
<br />
<br />
I use a <span style="font-weight: bold;">ratings system</span> which is fairly simple >
<br />
<br />
I take the player's ranking and then add my own ratings for current
form, event form, stats, mental ability, X factor (my personal rating of
that player) and then see how my rankings compare... I use a weighted
points system to reflect the different criteria strength
<br />
<br />
the better the difference in my ranking to the official ranking is a good indicator for me of a '<span style="font-weight: bold;">value'</span> bet.. not always someone who will win but one that has a better chance than the market will probably price him at
<br />
<br />
Then I look to see if the price is good for me... in a weak field it
probably won't be as there will be a lot of players at lowish prices - in a strong field (tiger, micko, etc) you will get much higher prices on
the majority of the field and that's where the <span style="font-weight: bold;">value v price</span> comes in and I select my picks
<br />
<br />
You can pick players to win or to trade > I do both but tend to run
anyone I back at say 70.. there is a big payout if they win... I may <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off but it's all about judgment and being flexible
<br />
<br />
Players at say 250 I will usually trade as a big win possibility is tempting but quite rare and I prefer to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off and get a green screen... in a good week I may pick 5 for trading and perhaps <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off 4 early on and have a really good profit all-round..
<br />
<br />
I can then go back in on Saturday and back a few more who may win in the
knowledge I'm playing with profit; then I can make even more... if it
goes wrong early then you are only limited to your original stakes (I
don't tend to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> pre-tourney)
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">Tips ></span></span>
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">
<br />
Pick your own selections (devising your own ratings is a good idea, or
at least having a list of in-form players, ones with good event or
course form, etc)
<br />
<br />
Then maybe check others tips / comments etc to see if you have missed anything or agree with someone else's bet
<br />
<br />
Then pick your final selections after checking prices etc and check staking plan</span>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">Trading ></span></span>
<br />
<br />
If your selection drops then you can always trade pre-event
<br />
<br />
If it drifts you can either <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off for small loss (why?!) or back some more if you have the funds.. if it was good before its better now eh?!
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">In Running (IR) ></span></span>
<br />
<br />
If the price drops > either <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off for free bet or <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off for a profit
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">Eg
<br />
<br />
* Player A is at 300 for 20pts = 5980.00 profit
<br />
<br />
> Price drops to 100 IR
<br />
<br />
* <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> for 20pts = 1980 liability
<br />
<br />
> you have a free bet on player A with potential profit of 3800pts (4000 less 5% comm)</span>
<br />
<br />
Or
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">
<br />
* <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> for 60pts = 5940 liability
<br />
<br />
> you have a profit of 38pts on any outcome (5980-5940, less 5% commission)</span>
<br />
<br />
So, if you manage a few good trades like this you have a very nice
profit all-round > of course you could run the price drop and see what's what.. if the price drops to say 30 from 300 then you have the lovely
situation where you can <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off some for profit and keep some for the big win
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">Eg
<br />
<br />
* 20pt back at 300 = 5980 profit
<br />
<br />
> Price drops to 30
<br />
<br />
* <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> 100pts at 30 = 2900 liability
<br />
<br />
This means you have a profit of 80pts on any other player (pre commission) and still have a 3080 profit bet on player A</span>
<br />
</span><span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: red;">Playoffs</span></span>
<br />
<br />
Playoffs can be good for quick trading > the prices move rapidly however
so there is a massive advantage to anyone with quick pictures; there
are delays with most broadcasters so you will often see the market move
before you see it with your own eyes - this means trouble, the only way
around this really is to 'predict' the result of a shot, or to watch for 'over-reactions'<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">Predicting</span></span>
<br />
<br />
Obviously this is guesswork; however, by watching the play you can make reasoned judgements
<br />
<br />
is player A has holing everything - is he due to miss a putt perhaps?
<br />
<br />
What's he like on 5 footers under pressure?
<br />
<br />
Is it an uphill straight putt or a tricky downhiller with a break?
<br />
<br />
If bunkered, whats the lie like ? what's his scrambling ability? Etc
<br />
<br />
And so on, good judgement here can get the right result maybe 70% of the
time in which case you are making a profit on level staking
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">Over-Reactions</span></span>
<br />
<br />
The difference between the shots of two players can make a price drop instantly and by a lot..
<br />
<br />
ie player A is 25 feet away and player B hits it to 4 feet > the
price on B will drop massively, then people will see a different camera
angle perhaps or realise it's not such a cert and the price will
increase a bit<br />
<br />
so, if player B is 1.9 and hits it to 4 feet, the price may go to 1.2 then settle at 1.3 a few moments later<br />
<br />
the trick is to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> at 1.2 and then buy back in; he may well miss the putt anyway so the 1.2 could be a winning <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> but it's all down to managing your stake and your judgement<br />
<br />
Equally, player A may be 1.9 and go to 3.3 when player B hits his
approach close, then player A price may contract slightly as there are
punters who will think he could make the 25 footer and they like the 3.3
price..
<br />
<br />
again, buy at 3.3 and <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off at 3.2 perhaps; small margins but trading winners before the putts have been taken
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">example ></span></span>
<br />
<br />
* player A price 1.9 > hits approach close
<br />
<br />
> <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> 1.2 for 250pts (liability 50pts)
<br />
<br />
* price settles back at 1.3 > buy 1.3 for 230.76pts (profit of 69.23)
<br />
<br />
if this works then you have <span style="font-weight: bold;">a quick profit of 19.23 whatever</span>
<br />
<br />
if the price only drifts to 1.25 then you back for 240 and have <span style="font-weight: bold;">a guaranteed 10pts profit whatever</span>
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/betting_terminology.php">NB</a> >
you have to have your stakes worked out ready to go in these cases..
the downside is you don't get your back bet on and you<span style="font-weight: bold;"> lose</span> your 50pt liability..
<br />
<br />
this example shows how you can make either 18.27 (19.23 less 5% comm so
18.27 actual return) on a price drift of 1.2 to 1.3 or 9.50 (10 less 5%
comm) on a price drift of 1.2 to just 1.25
<br />
<br />
a profit of 36.5% or 19%
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/betting_terminology.php">NB</a> > if the price drops to 1.1 you can still back it for 250pts (your original stake) and <span style="font-weight: bold;">halve</span> your potential loss (50pt liability)
<br />
<br />
This basically means playing the price movement as opposed to following
the market which is fairly predictable dependent on the shot </span></span></span><br />
<div>
<span class="postbody"><span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<div>
<span class="postbody"><span class="postbody"><span class="postbody"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">Pre-Tourney Assessments</span></span>
<br />
<br />
it's always worth checking any players form in previous events on a particular course... or in the event in previous years
<br />
<br />
make sure it's the <span style="font-weight: bold;">same course</span> as events are hosted on different courses sometimes..
<br />
<br />
some players really like certain courses - could be because it suits
their game - some are short accurate hitters who like courses under
7,000 yards and play good target golf (ie short<span style="font-weight: bold;"> inland </span>american courses) where you hit from A to B and rely on a hot putter
<br />
<br />
others like <span style="font-weight: bold;">links</span> courses where you often have to play the wind and shape shots - and quite often have to be a very good lag putter
<br />
<br />
some courses favour players who tend to draw the ball (augusta used to
but has changed a fair bit in recent yrs) and others are set up more for
faders of the ball
<br />
<br />
then you look at those who putt well on certain <span style="font-weight: bold;">greens </span>-
there are plenty of variations in the speed let alone the type of grass
- some players grow up on links courses so play well on those slick
greens as opposed to watered inland courses
<br />
<br />
so the course itself will favour certain entrants more than others -
hence some pros having terrific records in some tour events but not
really showing up in others
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">living</span> near the course is usually helpful too
<br />
<br />
so weigh up these factors too when trading... sometimes these factors
will mean the price has been over-compensated for - and the actual
golfer isnt in very good form - then he may become a <span style="font-weight: bold;">good <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> bet</span> as his price has dropped too low
<br />
<br />
i tend to include the event/course in my own rankings but weight the
current form and X factor in too so there is a bias towards recent form
more than course form - and then add in the usual stats form too... good
indicators although not guaranteed
<br />
<br />
sometimes you get all factors pointing towards a very good bet risk - that's where you have to judge the price in your own eyes
<br />
<br />
eg you may really rate a player's form both current and in an event -
you then look at competition and decide he should be a 10/1 shot - if
his price is 17.0 he should be good value and worth backing - if he is
8/1 he may well win but is he value?
<br />
<br />
the trading trick is to <span style="font-weight: bold;">assess</span> and bet accordingly
<br />
<br />
you might back at 17.0 and have a <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> in place if it gets under 11.0 - or you may run it and go for full profit on a win
<br />
<br />
you may ignore the price if it's 8.0 and watch to see if it hits your asessment of 12.0 - or you may <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> it 8.0 thinking it's too low and then plan to back it at above 11.0 (your assessment)
<br />
<br />
but
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: darkred;">Round 1 & 2 Trading</span></span>
<br />
<br />
always <span style="font-weight: bold;">watch the leaderboard</span> - if
good players go out early and make birdies you often get a drift on
players who haven't started - the market tends to think they are less
likely to make equivalent birdies and thus they drift - this is a good
time to back
<br />
<br />
if they then start with birdies the price drops rapidly as the market
assume they will go on and score really well.. so the first few holes
are fairly important in a player's round
<br />
<br />
then > watch for<span style="font-weight: bold;"> streaky</span>
players..some players often shoot -5 in 6 holes... they hit a streak of
hot putting... these players quite often rip a course up for a
while..going -7 or 8 by 13 holes - then they fall back with a bogey or
two as it's hard to maintain that form.. if you time it right you can
back during the streak.. then <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off when they stop getting birdies
<br />
<br />
also keep an eye on <span style="font-weight: bold;">weather </span>forecasts
as there is a big difference on thurs/friday between starting at 7am or
3pm... if poor weather is forecast the prices on late starters can
drift
<br />
<br />
tricky to get right but very pleasing when you do - just a matter of
staying ahead of the game really and using all the info available
<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><br />
tips >
<br />
<br />
* check course and event form
<br />
* check recent form
<br />
* assess price
<br />
* watch weather
<br />
* check tee times
<br />
* check leaderboard pre starting
</span>
<br />
> if you want to trade a lot then dont get too greedy - decide where you want to get out if you plan to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> after backing at higher price.... as jimmy mentioned above he settles for a small but regular profit
<br />
<br />
> if you get lucky and your player's price drops massively, then you have that lovely position of being able to <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> off some and still have a big profit on the original bet
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">
<br />
<span style="color: darkred;">Price differences</span></span>
<br />
<br />
you can get some big differences in trading prices... sometimes you might see a back at 20.0 and <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> at 30.0
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">(this happens a lot at higher prices..you may have a 200 back and a 500 <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a>)
<br />
</span>
<br />
nothing to stop you trying to get a match at 28.0 or so... then if you
were the only back bet at that price, you may see the 30.0 <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> price drop to 22.0 as the market tightens up that player's price
<br />
<br />
eg 20.0 back, 30.0 <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> > you offer 28.0 and it gets taken... then the <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> drops from 30.0 to 22.0
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">(if the player plays a good shot it may well be a back bet of 16.0 and the <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> drops to 18.0)
<br />
</span>
<br />
you can then <a href="http://www.olbg.com/school/bet_types.php">Lay</a> at 22.0 for a quick small return or a free bet </span></span></span></span></div>
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</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35548285.post-48225931888897002792012-04-02T03:33:00.000+01:002012-04-02T11:23:36.684+01:00us masters<div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7HUy02vwx9ppr-sD9gdp3ZhCdbYs0XkPAD6Tt-3f2dDelGUZA3PJLH9Rl7zbl9yLaa-bA4UK6bgp5FjpCEJuhnUwnSRLJ7dntraYUcmsFCb8Q3BBz12HcXrf5LqVGIzTANI7JiQ/s1600/augusta.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7HUy02vwx9ppr-sD9gdp3ZhCdbYs0XkPAD6Tt-3f2dDelGUZA3PJLH9Rl7zbl9yLaa-bA4UK6bgp5FjpCEJuhnUwnSRLJ7dntraYUcmsFCb8Q3BBz12HcXrf5LqVGIzTANI7JiQ/s1600/augusta.jpg" /></a><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;"><b>US MASTERS 2012</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">5th-8th APRIL - the 76th running of this spectacular and popular major</span></div>
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<b>Course ></b> Augusta National, par 72 and 7,435 yards..<span class="postbody"> It is
an undulating course so you can get a lot of run on some holes and you
don’t need to be a long hitter to do well. You do however need to have a
great short game as good approaches can often end up off the green and
the greens are tricky to say the least – fast with plenty of subtle
borrows and swales</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In the past few years the scores have been higher generally with not so many golfers breaking par by the Sunday
night (Tiger's fault for shooting 270 in 1997!) although last year it played relatively easily with -14 being the winning score<br />
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A few yrs ago, Augusta was capable of being tamed but now there are less
'easy' holes where birdies are fairly common, and many more holes where
you are thankful to get a part; I've watched the Masters for over
30yrs and the winner is not so much whoever has the game for the course
(ie those who draw the ball not fade used to succeed more, plus the big
hitters used to dominate it as it was so open) but more whoever is
playing at the top of their form</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">You have to drive well and putt well
obviously but also stay positive and ignore the inevitable bogey -
play the sensible shot when it matters and not go for broke on the par5s
unless you are hitting it really well; the 15th always offers eagle
opportunity but plenty have found the water short and suffered a 6 or
more.. likewise the 13th is tempting but sometimes you get as many
birdies by those laying up as those who go for the green in two<br />
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<b>Scoring</b> > you have to expect 8-10 bogeys over the wk probably for
the winner - could be higher but that's the usual mark ie take your
medicine and accept a couple of bogeys a round. Birdies are available of course;
the most has been 25 by Mickelson which is some going. A lot of players
will be looking to shoot around par ie 3 birdies and 3 bogeys perhaps and take a good round if it's there, you don't normally get too many 65s here; anyone who sprays it around will no doubt have to have an immense
short game to escape with decent scores</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Also depends a bit on the weather of course but more so on the green speed and the pin placements - the greens will be their usual speed probably and the pin placements are the main defence that the course has - all the usual spots with sunday being the hardest as always (bar the 16th where there is a decent chance of an ace)<br />
<br /><b><span style="color: blue;">Odds > all on betfair</span></b><br />
<br /><span style="color: blue;">Woods 5.8 > can you back against him?</span></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">McIlroy 7.0 > meltdown will be forgotten with a win, skinny price though</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Mickelson 14 > hard to back against with his record and form</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Donald 17 > great chance with terrific short game</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Westwood 21 > overdue</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Rose 34 > maybe just past his hot spell, good 1st round leader bet!</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Mahan 36 popular after winning this wk but hard to go back to back let alone win this</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Scott 38 > flatters to deceive</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Day 42 > great debut last yr but not much form to warrant this price</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Schwartzel 46 > on the drift which is good news as great chance of a repeat</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Bradley > 40 > inform but debutants never win here!</span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Watson 55 > length but suspect under pressure</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;">field > 60 and above... some great value in there especially for trading</span><br />
<br />* the beauty of having an inform duo at the top of the market is that it pushes the prices out for everyone else - there are some terrific players at 70 or 80 or 100 who could easily win this... Mickelson with his record and form this yr should really be a 7/1 shot but he's 13/1 here due to the Tiger & 'boy wonder' prices</span><br />
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<b><span style="color: #990000;">Last Year (2011) ></span></b></span></div>
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1 Schwartzel -14</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">2 Day -12</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">3 Scott -12</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4 Woods -10</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4 Ogilvy -10</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">4 Donald -10</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">7 Cabrera -9</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">8 Van Pelt -8</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">8 Choi -8</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: #990000;">10 Palmer -6
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<b><span style="color: #990000;">Since 2000 (last 11 Yrs) > Top 10 finishes</span></b><br />
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<span style="color: darkred;">9 - Mickelson<br />
8 - Tiger<br />
6 - VJ<br />
5 - Els<br />
4 - Goosen</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* stunning record of big Phil and Tiger has to be respected here as they are amazingly consistent for a tour event let alone a major</span><br />
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">The Field ></span> being a major you
would expect to see an unusual name up near the top of the leaderboard
on day 1 (Justin Rose has however managed to be top after 1st round 3
times) but they usually fade and by Sunday the bigger names appear –
definitely a case of ‘you can’t win it on Thursday & Friday but you
can lose it’ – last year saw Couples & Tom Watson at the top after
day 1 though so the evergreen pros still do well here – this isn’t a
course/event for debutants to flourish in </span><br />
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<span class="postbody" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Look for</span> > Current form and
good previous history here definitely helps, debutants often struggle as
do those who just can’t seem to get it going here; for some reason,
there are a few with average at best records (Kaymer for example) but it is of course a major
tourney with the world’s best players so you would expect the cream to
rise to the top
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Those who can putt well from distance and also 5-6 feet as you will get a lot of those par-saver distances here
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GIR is more important here than accuracy or distance off the tee – you
can’t keep missing greens and expect to keep getting up and down so
those who do well will be probably top 5 in this stat
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Experience counts – it will be unusual for a non tour winner to succeed
here; you will probably have a champion who has won many times on tour
and/or majors </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Woods </b>> 7 years have elapsed since he donned the green jacket; could be time for him to notch another major as it seems to be almost inevitable in some ways - the win a fortnight ago certainly pushed a lot of doubters back towards backing him and his price consequently firmed up a lot - whether 5/1 is worth taking is another matter as this isn't an ordinary tour event. Tiger is no ordinary player though so with his confidence on the greens back, his superb tee to green game and his experience, hard to go against him eh? unless someone else has an absolute blinder or gets very lucky I expect him to shoot 68-69 average and -14 or so may be hard to beat > not sure whether I will back him at 5/1 unless I go in with big stakes but I may just trade him as a separate entity to all my other bets (I often trade Tiger back and forth as it is quite easy to read the market moves with him)</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Donald</b> > a player I used to rarely back as he didn't have the killer instinct, steady and solid bu tnot doing enough when it mattered - he has really stepped up a level or two obviously and is the deserved world no 1 although doesn't get the credit he should as he is not a media darling - terrific short game and such a reliable putter these days and that is to his benefit here; can see him working his way through the field and probably being the steadiest on Sunday and notching birdies late on whilst others fall away under the pressure.. could well be a duel between him and Tiger which is the world no 1 against the 'soon to be' world no 1 again perhaps > will be taking Luke at about <b>17</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">so that's 2 of the top 3 in the betting - won't go for<b> Mickelson</b> although he looks to be a solid bet with a win this year, great form this week and his amazing record here too - if anyone is going to walk this tournament it could be him but there is also always that doubt with Phil that he may suddenly lose his way or miss some daft short putts</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">I'm leaving <b>Rory </b>and <b>Westy </b>as both are more than capable but I have the odd doubt - Rory will win more majors for sure but it might take him a while to get settled enough again to do so - Westy is a nearly man like Monty these days - should have won one by now and has been so close but cant quite seem to get it done in the majors</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Rose</b> has had his hot spell recently where he hit form and played courses he likes - he loves this one too and has a knack of leading after round 1 (3 times!) but may have gone off the boil slightly now. <b>Day</b> played extremely well last year in the majors and was so close here too but hasn't really done much in recent months and is probably having a quiet year before re-surfacing on the scene in a big way as he has the ability for sure. <b>Scott</b> is a good player and will benefit from having Steve Williams on his bag but doesn't look quite strong enough currently against a field of this quality and current form</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Schwartzel</b> was an early pick of mine for this a month or so back - his form has drifted in the last few weeks with 2 missed cuts on this tour after a string of top 5s etc > whether this is him tweaking before his defence of this trophy we don't know but he should still put up a spirited effort - those 2 missed cuts are unusual though and maybe a sign of him going off the boil - his odds have drifted accordingly from 38 to about 46 now</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bradley</b> is making his debut here and that's not a reason to back any golfer here - he has the ability and the form but it is a big ask to come here and win at the first go although it isn't impossible - will have plenty of supporters though and 40/1 isn't too bad but just looks skinny compared with some others</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bubba </b>is a decent price if going by stats is the way - his length and GIR record should mean plenty of birdie opps but always a doubt over his temperament and ability to withstand the extreme pressure on a Sunday</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>So on to the others ></b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Van Pelt </b>> in great form, stats are good, had some good finishes already this season so should be full of confidence and was top 10 here last year > perhaps unlikely to win but could go really well at a good price and looks a reasonably good shout for the top 10 too > 130 betfair</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Ed Molinari</b> > great player and has the game for this course - has returned from injury and played well recently so is warming up nicely for this - should go on to do better than his more heralded brother - price is 450 which I'm all over as a good start should see that fall nicely so a good trading opportunity if nothing else.. great value for a classy player, 11th last year after an opening 74</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Simpson</b> > odds of 80 make this a more tempting bet than the 40 on bradley - simpson has been a bit under the radar and as a debutant you wouldn't expect much but he has the ability and can putt well especially from mid to long range - might be a quiet one that sneaks through and suddenly appears on Sunday in the top 5</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Bill Haas</b> > super popular young man who has really proven to have what it takes - has already won tournaments and the fedex cup (in style!) and wouldn't surprise me if he found his form here and put in a great showing - 120 is tempting as he has had a rest before this event; played ok last yr here but struggled on the 13th, will have learned a bit and should improve on that 42nd place</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Stanley</b> > unlikely to do well as young and confident and on debut here which is normally a recipe for disaster! but this guy has stacks of ability - hits it long and hits greens and makes birdies - should score well on the par5s and may just enjoy this - not sure he will last so maybe a back to lay bet but worth taking on at 150 on potential! will probably miss too many short putts but a bit of luck may help</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Oosthuizen</b> > 90 is attractive for Oosty who should really benefit from last week's effort - just missed out on the win but playing well and that should give him the necessary boost - if he clicks he will make that price look daft</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Choi</b> > always worth a passing interest in the super steady unflappable KJ - played well here in recent years of course and will know what to do and no doubt plod around happily although it won't show... steady and popular and 75 is about right - not in great form so not a definite back</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* there are plenty of others too such as Stricker, Poulter, DJ and so on... </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Old Boys</b> > you often get a few previous winners having good rounds here and reminding us former glories - expect good showings from Couples, Immelman and Cabrera with the latter being a decent bet for this tourney at 100 as he likes it here and has the record and recent form too</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: blue;">SELECTIONS</span> ></b> narrowing these down to who could win or who is a possible winner makes this easier - there are plenty of good bets on paper but will some of them WIN? there are certain players you expect to come through on Sunday afternoon and others who will fall away</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">Tiger WOODS</span> </b>> <b>5.8</b> is high enough as the script seems written to me - he has the form and confidence and obviously the ability and experience - must have had doubts in his own mind but consolidating his lead and strolling to victory recently will have surely given that last bit of the jigsaw as he looks to establish himself back at the top and notch more majors; any edge that may have gone of fhis game looks to have been replaced by a super solid swing and a desire to prove a few critics wrong since his 'problems'</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">Luke DONALD</span></b> > maybe the most likely to push Tiger or win in his own right - seems slightly miffed still by the lack of respect for his ranking and would probably love to win this to prove his point > <b>17.5 </b>gets my money</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">Louis OOSTHUIZEN</span></b> > the good showing at Houston is likely to give him the impetus to do well and when he plays well he can be really good - odds have tightened but <b>90 </b>is still attractive for a major winner in form</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;"><b>Charl SCHWARTZEL</b></span> > despite a couple of missed cuts I'm not deserting the defending champ as he can turn it on and often players have done well here year on year - has the ability and obviously confidence being the title holder; was extremely consistent worldwide until those last 2 events but perhaps his eye was off the ball and he was saving his efforts for this week here - drifted to <b>46 </b>which is good, should be a good top 10 bet unless his game has really gone off the boil</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">Bo VAN PELT </span></b>> you often get someone who don't expect lurking in the top 5 at the weekend and Bo looks the one for me - excellent form with 4 top 10s in last 4 strokeplay events, had a brief rest too; was 8th here last yr (previous visit was 2005) - stats this yr are superb and no1 ranked in total putting and strokes gained... looks a decent shout at good odds and will be backing him for top 10 too > <b>130</b> betfair</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">* these will be my 5 picks this week - will also look to trade a few and have some top 10 bets as well as they have been really profitable in the last few weeks since I started looking at them</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">will keep an eye on <b>Haas</b>, <b>Simpson </b>and <b>Stanley</b> as all good players who could flourish and in the 80-150 price range - all possible top 10 bets for me too</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Trading > </b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Ed Molinari </b>huge at 450 and if he gets off to a good start then that should come down nicely, great longshot for me as mentioned above</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Moore</b> looks big at 320 (good record here and decent amount of top 10s, big blowout last wk though, dropped 11 shots in 6 holes on way to an 85)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Ishikawa</b> at 380 (terrific short game will really help compensate his lack of distance and experience)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Palmer</b> at 300 (multiple tour winner and always one I look for at big odds, capable of going really well)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4hDHjiyHpka9mqymvojFWdZIUAeVOnbtII9paaLWRj9p5zW3IQ03oapwQzH3X977RvziIvlYzv7lj_ZJP9b40iNh7VriByaK_1YT7DqlO_F2W0pTOuoy6C-uWMPBgqSZ9J7Te9w/s1600/houston.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4hDHjiyHpka9mqymvojFWdZIUAeVOnbtII9paaLWRj9p5zW3IQ03oapwQzH3X977RvziIvlYzv7lj_ZJP9b40iNh7VriByaK_1YT7DqlO_F2W0pTOuoy6C-uWMPBgqSZ9J7Te9w/s1600/houston.jpg" /></a><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">off to texas this week for the masters curtain-raiser that is the Shell <b>HOUSTON OPEN</b>; a fairly decent event that is a good tune-up for the first major of the season next week... a reasonable field assembled again and on open event as there are plenty of would-be winners as well as a few fancied names who may be not overly concerned with winning this week as they look to sharpen up for augusta</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the problem this week is that there are so many potential winners and the prices aren't great as the bulk of the likely victors are in the 20-100 range.. the course is fairly generous insofar as you can spray it about a bit but the rough is reasonably harsh as the scrambling stats show some struggles usually if you miss greens; fairly big greens and although long the course doesn't really favour the bombers - one of those courses that rewards the best player that week - hi tit straight and sink a few putts basically!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">anyway, have updated <b>my rankings</b> and after removing those who aren't competing this week we have the following top 15 ></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>my rank / name / my ranking points </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: justify; width: 267px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 1974; mso-width-source: userset; width: 41pt;" width="54"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3364; mso-width-source: userset; width: 69pt;" width="92"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2084; mso-width-source: userset; width: 43pt;" width="57"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl72" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt; width: 41pt;" width="54"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1</span></td>
<td class="xl66" style="width: 69pt;" width="92"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">stricker</span></td>
<td class="xl67" style="width: 43pt;" width="57"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">13.33</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">westwood</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">14.67</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">6</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">schwartzel</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">17.83</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">mickelson</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">23.33</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">13</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">bradley</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">26.67 </span></td><td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">15</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">mahan</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">28.17</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">18</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">mcdowell</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29.67</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">19</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">hanson</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">30.83</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">32</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">bjorn</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">38.33</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">35</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">senden</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">39.83</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">37</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">wagner</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">40.50</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">41</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">stanley</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">41.33</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">42</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">els</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">41.33</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">44</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">baddeley</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">43.17</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;">
<td class="xl73" height="16" style="height: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">47</span></td>
<td class="xl69"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">oosthuizen</span></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">44.67</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">> thus I have stricker as the top-rated here slightly ahead of westy with charl and defending champ mickelson next... nothing amazing there obviously</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">> my rankings show me a value or trend and I skew my ratings towards the event a fair bit - so here stricker is the best bet for the win to me... having a good record here and the sort of course he prospers on means he is better value at 18 than westy or micko at 13/14</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">my value rankings show HANSON, WAGNER, STANLEY and ELS as all being worthwhile investments this week - I then look at the prices to see if the market is generous or not..</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">hanson at 55 looks high, wagner has been backed down to 38 which is backable still, stanley is 55 and els 34 which again look ok - these guys look more solid to me than others</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">westy could and should win but top 5 looks about right; micko won last year with blistering weekend scoring of 63,65 but surely is more concerned with next week.. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have backed schwartzel a few times recently but last time out he had a rare blowout, another looking to sharpen up for augusta where he should be a decent bet to retain his green jacket</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">bradley could enjoy this long course, probably more likely to do well this week rather than next for me.. </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">mahan has already won this year and is always a worth looking at but not for me here although his record is good with regular top 10s interspersed with MCs!, mcdowell bounced back into form last week but is work in progress for me still</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">bjorn could go well at a biggish price as he is solid and much better bet than senden who just can't get those putts in when it matters.. </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">badds and oosty are in my top 15 ranked players but neither really appeal for the win here; badds perhaps may prove me wrong but 34 isn't enough to tempt me with others looking stronger for me</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">at higher prices and further down the rankings are harrington (65 now which isn't that high but he has been consistent here and that recent 61 showed signs of him being almost back), cauley who keeps showing his face in the top 10 (60 betfair) and stenson who is back to some good form and can get away with a few wild shots here perhaps (50 means people have already got on to him)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>so, picks for this week are ></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>ELS</b> > will give him another go as he has paid out nicely recently each way and top 10, in great form and needs the win for an entry into augusta - needs to be confident and sink some putts but good value at <b>34</b></span><br />
<b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">WAGNER</b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> > this guy keeps the odd win coming so no problem if he is in contention, as a previous winner here he has to have the confidence and as he is currently flying and leading the fedex pts etc, no reason not to back the tache - </span><b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">34</b><br />
<b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">HANSON</b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> > could be a great price for the always under-rated swede here; in good solid form as always and can win.. price should be nearer 35 or so not</span><b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 55 </b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">so I'm happy to go with him here</span><br />
<b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">STANLEY</b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> > another winner this year already and have to love the way he came back the week after taking 8 on the 18th and blowing a 3 shot lead - aggressive and should enjoy this week, could give this a good run at </span><b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">55</b><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">last pick was really down to the difference between stricker at</span><b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 18</b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> or bradley at 20 and I will favour my usual in SS - has the game, the ability to notch loads of birdies, stats are great and the course should be ideal... consistently good here and has to be on the list basically so </span><b style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">STRICKER</b><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> it is</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">thus, expecting a top 10 of these 5 plus probably westy, bjorn, cauley, pod and baddeley</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">top 10 bets > after great success with these in the past fortnight when I started looking at them, prices look worth taking for cauley 5.8, wagner 4.6 and hanson 5.6</span><br />
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<span style="color: #990000; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">trading > estes likes this course so perhaps 500 on him early doors, 350 for jason bohn and 530 for greg owen too... couples at 150 looks tight but in great form and has done well here with a couple of top 5s in recent years</span></div>
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