Friday, October 05, 2012

SBB > new tipster blog

very pleased to be involved with a terrific new blog site, SBB which is Sports Betting Bloggers - some terrific knowledge on there from a group of respected and long-term profitable bloggers

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Sports Betting Bloggers

Sunday, August 05, 2012

uspga championship

off to Kiawah Island and the Ocean Course
for the final major of the season, the USPGA CHAMPIONSHIP which takes place this week..

should be a fabulous test of golf and let's hope that the wind is strong enough to test these guys but not too severe to make it a lottery

this course is long at over 7,600 yards and can play to almost 8,000 if they shift the tees to the furthest point back - the ocean breezes make a massive difference to the required shot here however and there can quite easily be a 4-5 club difference when playing the same shot on different days

fairways shouldn't be too hard to hit here and the greatest asset will probably be iron play into the greens - obviously accuracy will help but playing the right shot at the right time will be paramount; course management is vital and with likely changing breezes from hole to hole then you really need to remain calm and have your wits about you - there have been some course changes over recent years which have mainly been fairly subtle and relate to green fringes and run-offs mainly - the greens are paspalum these days which basically means no grain; most of the players won't be used to this but shouldn't make much difference as they will be cut 'major-speed' low

thus, hitting it a long way and having good GIR stats will help; finding the right spot on the greens will help otherwise there will be plenty of shots rolling off the edges - scrambling will of course be vital as there will be plenty of good shots ending up off the greens being a coastal course - putting as ever needs to be strong as being a major these greens will be quick

expecting the winning score to be around -5 or so.. may be lower if its calm but doubt it will go past -10; if it blows a bit then expect level par to be closer

therefore I'll be looking for players who have a fair bit of experience, preferably having played here before but definitely those with a decent record on these type of courses; great short games and reasonably accurate off the tee although will edge towards the longer hitters probably - great course management is a must

keegan bradley is the defending champ (winning on his major debut!) and has come into some form recently so he will presumably be popular in the market, having a bit harder time of it in his 2nd full tour year but has got great stats an dis no 1 ranked in the all-round category showing that he is playing well without hitting any particular heights - could be worth watching and 66/1 is probably about right
(edit: he won the WGC Bridgestone yesterday so is indeed 'in form'! and his odds have now dropped to 50/1 best fixed and about 43 betfair)

tiger will be the fav as per the old days but there are a fair few others who have the game and experience to do well here
(edit: a solid final round at Bridgestone yesterday for woods and note that his tee to green was really good (3rd in GIR), it was his putter that let him down a bit- still managed another top 10 however)

jason dufner lost in that play-off last year and was 5th the year before and with his consistent performances in recent times will be another popular pick no doubt - twice a winner this year and showing that he can now handle the pressure and compete on a sunday

rory mcilroy likewise has done well in this event and with a decent effort this week will be attracting support - has been hit and miss in recent months so hard to judge whether he will put it all together and impress or fall away; risk with him is he does seem to lose interest if it isn't happening

webb simpson broke through with his US Open win and returns to action this week; being a 'local' he will have the benefit of the fans support - the dad factor may help him as often provides the maturity that some players need (or the lack of sleep that can be worse!)

another local is dustin johnson who has had injury problems for a fair while now - looks to be back on song now though and living locally, he will be well supported and with his length and record he looks a sure-fire back bet to me

donald westwood and scott all have good reasons to be backed as they seek that elusive major win; mickelson is out of form but has come from nowhere before and mcdowell and rose have had good solid seasons too

picks >

dustin JOHNSON > top player and has twice been close to winning a major previously; has returned from injury this season and won the St Jude Fedex event - missed the cut at the US Open but finished 9th at The Open last month - currently going well this week too so is in good nick it seems

has made the cut in 11 of 13 majors which is a good sign; he also has a decent record when in contention - high percentage of wins relative to 2nds and 3rds compared with other players

has won on tour 6 times and once each year for 5 yrs since turning pro in 2007 (matching tiger in that respect)

missed cut in this event last yr but was 5th and 10th prior to that; also has 2 career wins at pebble beach in the AT&T event

thus, he lives locally in myrtle beach, is a consistent winner, knows what to do at the business end of an event, hits it miles, is confident, has been close before to winning a major, etc etc.. all points to what should be a really good week for DJ and perhaps his first major

available at 33/1 and that is very tempting as I would rate him about a 20/1 shot or better (30 betfair)

graeme MCDOWELL > having a stellar season with regard to the majors, finishing 12th at augusta, 2nd in the US Open and 5th in The Open recently - add a 2nd place at the arnold palmer event and he has obviously had a really solid year and seems to have benefited from picking and choosing events; is gearing himself around the majors and could complete a terrific  effort in them with a win here

ranked 2nd for accuracy off the tee he should be able to set himself up nicely to hit his irons in to these greens - again, he is highly ranked for approaches and the only thing probably stopping him winning here would be a few missed shortish putts - if he can get the flat stick working then he should be one of the ones to relish the conditions and won't be hampered by the breezes like some others perhaps

might be a big ask to again feature in a major but I remember him really stepping up a few yrs ago in the ryder cup and you could see him start to believe that he was actually a top player and 
deserved to be competing in the big events; that confidence has made the difference and he can be in the mix on sunday afternoon.. 40/1 fixed / betfair looks decent indeed

matt KUCHAR > having been on tour for 11 yrs or so he really has stepped up in recent years to become a top player - superbly consistent and was in danger of becoming a nearly man almost having peppered his record with top 10s but without winning as many events as he should have until he went and won the players championship this year

that was a big victory and followed a 3rd at augusta - he has since finished 9th at The Open too so is really starting to post good performances in the big events as well as consistently making cuts (22 on the trot); has posted seven top 10s this season and has superb stats too being top ranked for scoring average and par 4 performance and highly ranked in scrambling too which well help this week

chance to notch a major and cement his position as probably the most consistent player around these days, 40/1 (42 betfair) looks too high again and since he lives up the coast at sea island he is definitely worth backing this week too

luke DONALD > usually shy away a bit from the market leaders but being a major you would expect the cream to rise to the crop - of the mcilroy, donald, westwood triumvirate I often pick luke as he is the number 1 player for me in the world - consistent and with such a terrific all-round game

he really needs a major on his CV and quickly or else there will always be that question mark on his record - has come a bit closer in recent times but doesn't do himself justice in the big 4 events really; did manage a 5th in the Open and elsewhere was 6th in the Players and won the Transitions too so another successful campaign for sure but he needs to win a big one - he was 8th last yr at Atlanta Athletic

stats are great - ok, his distance off the tee is relatively poor but he concentrates on being accurate and with his amazingly good short game (probably the best there is for consistency) he will always be knocking on the door - this may not be the best course for him but he is worth backing at 17 betfair as he is probably the best bet of the top 5

final pick is between mahan, bradley, colsaerts and possibly kaymer although the latter's form hasn't been good enough to warrant my money; any of these have a good shout- might have to go with both mahan and colsaerts being a major and 6 places are covered each-way

hunter MAHAN > needs to chip in a couple of times or have a really good week with the putter as that's probably what will stop him doing well here - classy player and great ball-striker - terrific stats with high rankings in accuracy striking etc... has performed well in majors and won both the WGC accenture matchplay and the shell houston open this year so having a great season in that respect> looks reasonable at 45/1 best (47 betfair)

nicolas COLSAERTS > the long-hitting belgian is having another really good yr after improving so much last yr - won the volvo matchplay and has sprinkled top 10s on his record - has done ok when crossing the pond with a 27th in the US Open (76 final round took the shine off a bit)

great 7th in the Open and has really stepped up his game, maybe high enough to challenge here - stats are good and probably just needs to drop under 30putts a round to compete as distance, GIR and scrambling are all really good > available at 80/1 with youwin (60 betfair)

mention for bradley who is obviously peaking nicely with this week's win; would be really hard to win consecutively and to pick up 2 majors in your first 5 attempts would be staggering so probably worth avoiding now and more so as the 66/1 has gone

summary >

I always tend to trade tiger separately as I have mentioned many times before - his game is good but still questions over his consistency// he could play averagely and still be top 10 though such is his ability - if his putter works well and he keeps his solid tee to green game from last week then he will be a contender for sure and the 8/1 looks generous... I will avoid for now but expect a top 10 definitely

DJ looks the one for me so going in on him - to add to the above picks I would have tiger, maybe someone like kyle stanley or aaron baddeley to surprise a bit and make the top 10, and one of my traders to hang around long enough - perhaps pettersson / cabrera-bello / noren.. cab-bello was a good trade for me last week as backed him at 380 and got out at 15 on friday (never confident he would keep going!) - did leave some on him hoping but not to be.. noren is long and can be spectacular, will trade him as he is over 400 now

can also see an old boy somewhere (verplank and toms did well last yr) and john daly may appear up there briefly as he is playing well - da points could be worth watching too as although not in form, this course should suit him

trading >

HAAS > such a likeable bloke, great player too with good all-round game, not been in great form but can find a performance from nowhere - already won this yr after last year's heroics> 100 betfair

PETTERSSON > 5 time tour winner who has the knack of winning from nowhere every now and then, north carolina resident and great putter - might be time to make an appearance in the top 5 or 10 in a major? > 125 betfair

VJ SINGH > the old-timer is in decent nick and may be worth a trade, currently 180 - cant sink the putts these days but he may have a reasonable start and be worth a quick back to lay if he can drop below 100

keeping an eye on the following > Cabrera-Bello 200, Noren 390, Olesen 230, Stallings 300 as all could have good starts and drop a bit although would expect to lay them if they drop sub 100 as doubt they will go too low

edit: stanley at 150 added, pettersson now 160, haas down to 85, VJ out to 190, noren at 410 added and daly at 405 added

top 5 or top 10 bets to follow later on..

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

world records data article

click this link for the history of world records as issued by the guardian newspaper 31 july 2012 >>

history of world records

Monday, July 16, 2012

open championship

off to lytham for the 141st OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP this week and the third major of the year..

my tips for the majors are not normally over impressive unfortunately so I'm not going to over-analyse this one and go with initial thoughts with a dash of common sense regarding the likely conditions...

most bookies paying 6 or 7 places but I'll use betfair as always

going to ignore the market leaders as not over-keen on them; obviously they are class acts but there is the odd doubt and the prices don't really appeal in an event which has so many potential winners - granted the winner will probably tick the boxes so will be experienced, calm, accurate, good under pressure, etc etc and that tends to point to all the 'main men'but in recent times plenty of unfancied and young golfers have shown they can step up and with the scoring these days (courtesy of modern equipment) then there's more chance of a long-shot coming through

I have a feeling that the weather will either make a mockery of it or it will remain calm enough for it to be fairly easy in which case the pins will probably be stuck in tricky spots meaning a lot of luck will be required

this could well be a weird week with some big names missing the cut perhaps; might be worth some brave bets and looking at rory, tiger perhaps there? common sense would mean donald westy should make the top 5 really but who knows? could be a strange one and don't be surprised to see some unlikely names up there this week

tips are >

martin LAIRD > has improved his game no end since late 09 or so and has established himself on the US Tour; has won twice and has had some decent finishes in big events with 2nd places in the Players this year and the Barclays previously; bit corny picking a Scot but should be at home and is in good form with a respectable effort last week in the Scottish Open - is ranked way down on accuracy on the US Tour but is top 10 for GIR surprisingly so knows how to find the putting surface regularly.. can putt well and if he is on song then he should feature and looks over-priced at 130

francesco MOLINARI > terrific from tee to green and really should have won recently but has played so well; whether he can maintain this and really make a mark in a major is debatable and his price has been shot to pieces but... and it's a big but as he struggles to string 4 rounds together, he is in top form and has the game to do well - add in some luck and he may be a solid each way shout, 50 on b/f

graeme MCDOWELL > under the radar when he played really well at the US Open finishing 2nd, has a 2nd previously this year on the US Tour and with the likely weather this week should be one of the more likely winners in the market - ranked 2nd in the US for accuracy off the tee which is superb and should really help, par 4 scoring is really good too and just needs to sink some small putts and he may well be looking to add another major to his haul.. has the experience,form, ability, etc and worth backing at 36

rafael CABRERA-BELLO > backed him a few times as he seems to have stepped up from being a potentially good player to a top class performer on the euro tour this yr - in good form and was showing well last week too until a poor hole stopped him on sunday; price is probably right but if he can carry the confidence of a tour win and recent good efforts then he may well sneak up that leaderboard and looks a really good top 10 shout at least for me.. 220 currently

mark WILSON > 650 is a daft price really for a player who is really under-rated; another neat tidy player who could really do well here if his game is on song and he gets a bit of luck - granted the price reflects his recent form with plenty of MCs but he is extremely accurate and can putt well - has won 5 times on the US Tour so warrants respect and could be one of those players that make you wonder where he came from when he leads at the weekend (hopefully!); has a terrible record in majors and big events actually so maybe this really is a wild stab in the dark but he is still worth a look for me

jim FURYK > golden oldie time and mr furyk could well be worth a dabble at about 55 this week; has made 13 cuts of 15 this yr, 9 times making the top 25, 4 top 10s and of course a 4th in the US Open - super accurate, a great scrambler and putting really well; has the demeanour to prosper if it gets tough this week - looks a really solid shout and may just cap a superb career in style if he believes

top 10 market > 

john SENDEN > really has no chance of winning as just can't get the wins he deserves but has a great tidy game which should really suit here; can see him being up there and then fading but good top 10 possibility > 12.5 betfair

ben CURTIS > new improved version in recent times has rekindled interest in curtis who of course is a previous open winner; has the game for this course and being accurate, tidy and a good par4 scorer he should be up there > 9 betfair

justin ROSE > I remember being at lytham in 96 when he made his astonishing debut as a 17yr old - course should suit and he looks solid enough to get up amongst them > 3.55 is a tad short so may avoid this

ross FISHER > didn't play much until last few mths but has come along nicely and with  an excellent tee to green game he really should be looking to make a mark this week - fancy him to  sneak up into the top 10 > 8 on betfair

trading > 

can't resist doing some early trading and picking these in the hope they get off to flyers >

marc LEISHMAN > should do well on this links course and tough player > 550
richie RAMSAY > mainly a hunch, 500
pablo LARRAZABAL > on him already at 470 but 320 now after playing well last wk, real hit or miss player
ryo ISHIKAWA > talented although not really in form, if on song then could drop quickly, 500 

snedeker and fraser are others worth looking at...

Sunday, July 15, 2012

open championship golf challenge

off to Lytham this week for the OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

click here for the free golf challenge on OLBG where you can win CASH!


Wednesday, June 13, 2012

us open golf challenge (olbg)

pop over to OLBG and enter the US OPEN GOLF CHALLENGE

cash up for grabs let alone the glory of winning!!

link is here >>

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

byron nelson championship

and back toTexas this week we go... the BYRON NELSON Championship held at Las Collinas golf course in Irving

now this is a tricky course so should really benefit those who have great course management skills and know how to think their way around the course; calm, mature players should prosper although there have been some winners who have won on debut (Bradley last yr a prime example)

a par 70 so not too many 5s to gobble birdies up on - this should mean that the shorter, more accurate players do well indeed and those who have good records here back that up

this course has had changes made in 08 and in the last 2 years the greens have had their 'air sub system' re-done as per Augusta and thus the greens are now truer and more consistent apparently - this is also borne out by the fact that the putting stats in last couple of years have been more relevant whereas previously they weren't and it was a case of hitting greens in reg. > so, this points me towards the more relaxed,laid-back golfers and those who can hit their greens  and also are good putters (Pettersson springs to mind straight away)

it is often windy too here and this makes scoring tricky so always worth considering those who play well in the breeze as well as locals or those who often raise their game or get better results in the lone star state

picks >

adam SCOTT > fairly solid pick his week in this relatively weak field; went for him last week and he started brightly but fell away unfortunately - has won this before (3rd also in just 3 starts) so has plenty of ticks in the right boxes this week (ranked 1 in par 4 birdies).. seems to be warming up for an assault on the world top 10 and a win here would be a terrific step up (long overdue too) - only worry is him missing a few tiddlers but hopefully the man from adelaide will be the one this week > win bet at 14

carl PETTERSSON > caught my eye years ago as one of those players who plods along not doing much but then finds a win every now and again - has the knack of putting it together for all 4 rounds every now and again - has won once this yr so maybe that was it for 2012 but he is in excellent form and is a renowned putter - ranked 1 for par 4 birdies (as is scott above) and that is useful here on a par 70; putting well as ever and a good each way shout if he can hang on to his form for one more week > 30 betfair

ryan PALMER > local lad and that clinches it for me - back him a lot as he is another who plods along then picks a win from nowhere every now and again - has been in good form and results could be even better recently but for weak final rounds; 4th at the Zurich a couple of weeks back and more than capable of putting well and notching a 4th career win here - I'm sure he would love to and should be well supported.. and lost in a play-off here last year which confirms all the above! > 48 is good on betfair

jhonattan VEGAS > texas resident hitting form nicely it seems - played well last week at the Players and is hitting plenty of greens in the right numbers, and is sinking putts beautifully too - the right combo for this course although his stats aren't good this yr, needs to keep it a bit straighter and keep the putter hot or else he could blow out here - terrific rookie year with that win and finding it tougher this yr but signs are good after top 10 last week - risky bet but odds are good at 80 betfair

brian DAVIS > another in good form and seems to play well here managing a 2nd and 8th in recent yrs; has posted 4th, 4th, 13th 39th 9th and 25th in last 6 tour starts which is solid and consistent - stats arent fab but is in prime form and should go well - shot each round under 69 in 09 when 2nd here so good memories, 46 betfair just enough to tempt

the not quite picked group this week consists of Oosty (always a threat), Rollins, Huh, Gay, Wagner, Pampling... might look to get involved with those in running (could be the ideal sort of tournament for Wagner)


odds look attractive on  Harrison Frazar 110, Arjun Atwal 180, Patrick Reed 350, Will Claxton 340 so will look at those for quick starts as always

Top 10 market > 

Vegas 7.8, Atwal 13.0, Pampling 12.0 and Palmer 5.0 all attract me

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

players championship

off we go to sunny Florida this week and the PGA tour's own club at Ponte Vedra is our venue - the famous Sawgrass course is the host as usual for the Players Championship, a terrific event and one of the best on tour

hugely anticipated and with the world's top players all competing together for once - should be a great week of golf

this is a great course with the infamous 17th too which will no doubt provide some thrills and spills as always; scoring is actually quite good on this hole but obviously a misjudged club could mean a wet ball - overall, Sawgrass tends to favour accuracy off the tee, those who manage good GIR stats and you will need to scramble really well here or else you will get punished too - you can get away with some wayward shots but usually the triumphant golfers are those who have a straight hitting week and set up as many birdies as they can and don't pressure themselves in having to get it up and down too often

the way the players are scoring these days on tough courses however, it wouldn't surprise me to see 66s flying about and a winning score of at least -15 or so

my current world rankings with this week's event built in are as follows >

1 donald 12.00
2 westwood 15.00
3 mcilroy 15.17
4 mickelson 15.50
5 woods 17.00
6 stricker 24.33
7 oosthuizen 24.33
8 mahan 24.50
9 kaymer 25.50
10 scott 25.50
11 simpson 26.50
12 poulter 26.83
13 els 27.50
14 rose 29.00
15 haas 29.83
16 dufner 30.00
17 kuchar 30.00
18 hanson 30.67
19 bradley 31.17
20 watney 33.33
21 garcia 33.50
22 wilson 34.00
23 choi 34.50
24 fran molinari 35.17

the clear value if you think they will do well is on haas and wilson as they are big odds compared with their relative ranking although my value rating shows them to be nothing more than reasonable as their form has dipped a bit; my rankings show donald as the top-rated player here as his scrambling is the clincher - westy just above rory as his tee to green game is so good currently (both are fabulous in this respect) > this is where my rankings include a bias towards the current event amongst other factors

micko and woods don't attract me too much this week although woods just missed the cut last week and westy was 1 shot better at halfway and then ended top 5 after a good weekend's scoring - woods has missed just 8 career cuts although you wouldn't think it to see some of the analysis (digging!) and is still likely to find his game and make a lot of people look silly... too risky for me however as I thought it was just his putting to work on pre-masters but he seems to have lost his way with his swing again

the ones who interest me are good ball-strikers, good scramblers, hit plenty of greens and are in form... els, poulter, scott, molinari all tick some boxes and there are a few others at longer prices who do likewise such as moore, curtis, molder, etc

garcia has a good record here but I never back him and after his own admission at the masters he's even more of an 'avoid' for me especially at the price he is; mahan probably won't scramble well enough here although is two-time winner this yr and drives so well; bradley has gone off the boil and a few others have either had their good spell or aren't in good enough form to win  in a field like this

good cases for a lot of players however and the prices are superb with all these big names at the top pushing the odds out on decent players way down the list

picks >

luke DONALD > of the top 3 I really can't decide as I'm not sure about rory here, westy will be the pick from tee to green but can't sink them when it matters so I think donald will be my pick - this course can suit shorter hitters so no problem there, his superb short game may be the difference here and the odd shot saved over others could be the difference - I think he will also relish a chance to really make a statement as he faltered at the masters > his odds are higher than usual of course which helps and he managed T4 here last yr too... really expecting westy to go off all guns blazing and get the lead but then stutter and donald to sneak up and nick it, 15.5 betfair

adam SCOTT > could be another flatter to deceive week but he has a great record here and has won previously - is in really good consistent form and may relish being under the radar a bit currently.. 12 consecutive cuts on this tour, top 10 at augusta, stats are showing well for scoring, mid to long putting, GIR (8th) and so on > a lot more experienced these days obviously and seems to be ticking over nicely - I think he has the highest percentage of rounds under par here who have played a few times or more.. 40 betfair is attractive for a previous winner (2 top 10s also)

ian POULTER > odds out to 90 betfair now and that's good for poults who is confident, in good form again with recent good efforts (3rd at arnie palmer inv and 7th masters) and another who has played well here before (2nd in 09) - also loves the big tourneys and often impresses when up against it, not sure if he is likely to win but expect him to give a very good account and a confident shout for the top 10 for me

ernie ELS > another experienced player in great form, close to winning this year and playing well - might need a bit of luck but could be rolling back the years here if he can get the putter to work - usually plays well here and his accuracy should help him compete, 55 is tempting for the big easy who does like a pete dye course

ryan MOORE> hitting form nicely and big price at 120; often plays well for a few weeks so hoping to keep his current run going (ignoring a blowout 85 at houston in the 3rd round) - has been 4th 5th 8th in last 4 events.. usually makes the cut here so about time he made the frame

francesco MOLINARI > superb tee to green game, relaxed and in form with a great win last week (may have been favourite but still have to win) shooting 65 to win in style on a tough course - played here 2 yrs ago and managed a top 10 so why not... 75 is too high for a euro player who prospers over the pond it seems

going with 6 picks rather than dropping one, Crane and Kuchar are others who you could expect to do well.. add Mcilroy/Westy in and there's a top 10 for me although there may be a few from nowhere who do well this week - Oosty could easily have been in my picks and I may watch him and look to add during the tourney - Curtis also was close to being picked as backed him couple of times recently with success

there are plenty who came close to being picked > oosty and curtis as mentioned, styricker of course as well, watney showing a return to form, mcdowell who plays well here, kuchar who collects top 10s for fun but can't go that bit further oftne enough.. and so on...  going with the ones I feel are best primed however...

trading > some cracking prices for some not bad players > will be going with a few in the hope they drop rapidly after good starts..

COUCH @1000 like this price a lot for decent accurate driver who can putt... likes florida too so if he clicks he could be a decent trader, only won the one time on tour (06) and hasn't done much this year but worth a small dabble for me

MAYFAIR @ 950 quick swansong perhaps, decent scrambling will help

KIRK @ 850 too high price for decent player

MOLDER @ 310 stats tick a lot of boxes so another decent shout, game should really suit being accurate and good short scrambler

top 5 & 10 markets >

looking for some decent bets here as have started doing these markets recently with great success...

top 10 Moore at 9.2 for sure, Poulter 7.4 and Curtis 7.6, Els at 5.9 all look decent to me and could trade a lot lower (I like getting out of these when the market drops rapidly on them as they often go quite low)

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

wells fargo championship

off to North Carolina this week for the excellent WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP which was more recently known as the Wachovia Championship; this is where young Rory shot 64/62 at the weekend to win and truly announce himself on the world stage a couple of years ago

we have a really good field this week and with Quail Hollow being a tough course, this promises to be an excellent few days of golf

great to see the boy wonder, micko, tiger, westwood all competing and shame donald isn't there too but still a mouth-watering event - previous winners indicate that the cream usually rises to the top in this championship

this course demands everything, good accuracy off the tee as you will struggle if you aren't top 30 or so here, GIR as always or else you have to be a top scrambler, and the greens really find you out so good putters will more than most weeks prosper here

so a good all-round effort basically and hence the consistent top players do well - course has got a bit easier perhaps in recent yrs although this week may have longer rough apparently - mcilroy and westwood should find the greens well but their flat stick will determine their results hence rory being a few pts lower

tiger is a conundrum as ever - if he has his swing back then can he read the putts? augusta was a strange one from him as he looked to be back

micko is hard to call but is starting to look value when checking his record here and his results this season

young players can do well here too however although they do have to be either already good (rory) or of top potential

I have updated my rankings so will have a look at them although I have a few in mind to pick and one or two locals who may well put in extra effort being on home turf

my rankings >

1 mcilroy 10.33
2 woods 12.00
3 mickelson 14.67
4 westwood 18.83
5 mahan 22.50
6 simpson 24.83
7 haas 26.50
8 bradley 29.50
9 z johnson 31.67
10 furyk 34.17
11 van pelt 35.50

* this is the top 11 of my top 25 world ranked currently... thus my rankings which include course / event form as well as current form and mental strength etc indicate that these would be the finishing positions > what I then do is look for the prices and what I think and pick my golfers from there...

* mickelson hasn't won here but has a great consistent record, tiger can obviously win if he has regained his swing which looked great pre-masters, rory should be fav and is, and so on

> looking at betfair, haas looks over-priced at 55 but he has lost a bit of form; simpson likewise is a bit generous at 36 as being a wake forest grad and a member here you would expect him to do better than his form dictates

> furyk is just 25 on betfair but that is explained by his terrific record here - he is definitely worth looking at as the rankings show him to be good value performance wise but his price already reflects that

> outside of these top 11 here, my rankings show good weeks for huh, byrd, villegas so all of these are worth watching; byrd may have the 'new dad' feelgood factor which often can inspire/relax players; huh looks to have great potential and villegas is hinting at a return to form and this course should suit him

* local players of interest should be simpson & haas mentioned already and de jonge too

* outsiders could be karlsson (250) who has no form but can click, a great scrambler too and capable of suddenly shooting 66s.. ken duke (150) has been peppering the leaderboard recently too as has mathis (430) and will claxton is quite a talented player so worth watching (470)

picks >

think I will swerve rory and unsure of tiger so micko gets the vote at the top...

MICKELSON > terrific record here but no W on his record - could be about to change as he may well sneak through and win here if he can keep the wild holes away and sink a few - record and form are so good so he gets the nod for me at 13 betfair

FURYK > 25 isn't high but can't ignore his record and the fact he will probably plod around without any fuss - seems to be bang on with his game again and sinking putts that matter... a boring but solid pick and he should continue his terrific record here

SIMPSON > perhaps a chance for the local lad to shine in a decent field and regain a bit of the glow he gained last year when playing so well so regularly; top 15 last wk and has been top 10 a few times already this year, 36 b/f

CURTIS > having won 2 weeks ago and made the top 15 last wk I will ride the crest with ben and as he has a 2nd place finish here previously (proving amongst others that shorter hitters can do well here) he could well nip into the frame again as he is currently playing well with great stats for accuracy GIR etc - 95 betfair

BYRD > often back this guy and he knows how to win - may be off the boil with a few wks off but that new dad factor really can help! 90 is attractive for last year's runner-up - couple of top 10s this yr and played well at augusta

trading > definitely going to see how we go with De JONGE (sign of form last week and decent here previously too, hoping for a fast start at 130

DUKE as in good touch and again good here previously, 150

VILLEGAS 180 as he may be picking up again and his tee to green game is solid

not sure about karlsson so HUH at 100 completes the traders, talented young player and in form

top10 bets > HAAS at about 5 is decent as I think he will be up there, can also get HUH CURTIS and BYRD at about 8.2 to 9 which all attract

top 5 markets > furyk 5.9 and simpson 8.4 are appealing although smaller stakes for me

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

2 goal gap backing recap

here's the thread I did last month about backing big prices on the footie - especially/usually when there is a 2 goal gap > ie when a team goes 2-0 up you back the losing team (or lay the winning team) on the basis that if they score the next goal, then there will be a good profit to be made as the market contracts

have a look...

this week has seen some cracking examples with man utd going up by 2 goals twice!

and then barca being 1-01 last night to win (draw matched at huge price too) and chelsea scoring the next goal.. and the one after that too!

backing big prices (2 goal gap)

all this needs is a decent over-reaction from the market and then if the NEXT GOAL is scored by the losing team and bringing them back into the game, then there is money to be made!!

zurich classic

off to louisiana this week for the tricky ZURICH CLASSIC, a tough test for a change for these lads as this course is long and has fairly tricky greens too; the rough isn't too bad though so still good chances for some low scoring but hopefully a truer test of decent ball-strikers and good putters

the prices don't really attract however and thus not much interest although there are a few who catch my eye at half-decent odds.. looking more to trade this week as good chance of some performances from triple-figure players perhaps

tentaive picks (ie small stakes probably!) >

peter HANSON > 55 is big enough for the perenially under-rated swede; in good form for a while and obviously put up a good effort at the masters - hopefully the jaunt to china won't affect him too much and he can do well here as his game is in good shape (on at 55 yesterday but 50 now)

hunter HAAS > could be a good longshot if he manages to avoid the killer 77s he often finds.. back into a bit of form and played ok here last year,  not a bad putter from long distance which should help here too - decent at 180 b/f (on at 180 although 150 or so now)

ernie ELS > 60 again looks decent for the big easy who may be relaxed again after his pursuit of a masters place - has been playing well and could be due a further good spell as has the long game for sure

last 2 pics are tentative as not too sure about them.. PIERCY at 100 is possible as he has the ability I feel and backed him last wk when he got close with a 65 but not close enough (dropped from 80 to 40 mid tourney), CHALMERS at 75 may not be long but has done well here and has a great neat game / also in better form and more confident after a good aussie summer

had thoughts about Crane (70) and Palmer (100) but will leave them for now

> not going with as big stakes as usual as this tournament has a real unknown feel about it and I will look daft when the top 5 is full of those at the top of the market probably! but happy with these mentioned above and definitely looking for good trades this week

trading > these all attract me for various reasons so will be looking for them to start well and provide some profit or a free bet at least

lamely 800 hunch bet purely! (now 870)
adams 450 always catches my eye and this price is big (down to 350 now)
mathis 310 off the back of a good effort last week (out to 380 now)
taylor 300 hunch bet and did well couple of wks back for me (230 now)
couch 450 should go well if he gets his (usually) good putting back on song (340 now)

* prices altered on b/f as I drafted this article yesterday

ballantine's championship (euro tour)

quick post about this week's BALLANTINE'S Championship in Korea - this is a superb course and should be a tough test - there looks to be some standout prices here although such a hard tour to call usually

not interested in scott at his price and couple near the top of the market are no value... expect a decent show from the korean players but the odds take that into account maybe too much already


McGRANE > 80 is generous indeed for mcgrane who should enjoy this course and also any inclement weather as that massive victory in the storms a few yrs ago in this part of the world lingers on; finding some good form and expect him to go well - would back him at near half this price so happy indeed with 80 (13th here last yr)

DERKSEN > 85 on b/f and that's good enough for this guy who seems to really enjoy playing in asia and often appears from nowhere to do well - top 20 last wk and good chance at highish odds here, 13th here last yr also

FISHER > 90 on b/f looks interesting; not sure what his plans are as he didnt play much at all until the masters which was strange but still played ok there - his great tee to green game should mean he finds enough birdie opps here as it's a tough course for anyone wayward; risky bet as bit of unknown factor with so little golf be he was a consistently good player a couple of yrs back and may be worth a dabble - MC last wk with 71/72 but good warm-up for this one perhaps

DUBUISSON > young french lad hits it long and is in good form with an excellent consistent effort last wk (all four rounds in the 60s), has potential to be a decent player indeed and if he can continue that good run then he is worth an interest this wk at 55

final pick was between Kruger, Lowry, Noren, Coetzee and Olesen all of whom I have backed in recent times - might watch them all and see if I can get better price early in the event

trading-wise > expecting a good home show so have dabbled on j-k mo, s-h park, s-s hong, d-h kim all at around 3-400 and looking for quick drop and out


Thursday, April 19, 2012

valero texas open

brief picks from me for this week's less than stellar event in texas... weak field and very open so plenty who could nick a maiden win here or surprise at decent odds - hard to call so smallish stakes this week... course is long and has undulating greens so no real bias at all other than for length and someone in form who can get it close enough to have a few birdie attempts - anyone short or wayward will consistently be relying on their short game to save par which is hard to do over 4 days

picks are >

PALMER > 40 isn't great for someone not in good form but have always liked Ryan Palmer as he can find a win from nowhere every now and again (3 tour wins 04 08 and 10, similar to kuchar who has 3 tour wins!) - texan lad so will presumably show up well as he has in the past in his home state; played ok at houston recently and being a good mid range putter he could find some form here and get in amongst them, happy to be on a proven winner at 40 

PIERCY > should do well on this course, won at reno-tahoe last yr which is similar so that bodes well, played well at houston and was 5th in the transitions, good long putter which will help here - decent shout at 80 

WALKER > local lad as lives here so no idea how often he may have plaed this track but should do better than usual with all the home town support - has had 3 top 10s already this yr but I'm wary that he did the same last yr before fading so hope he can maintain the form a bit longer this time > 55 Betfair is enough to tempt 

STADLER > in excellent recent form with 3 top 10s in last 4 events played, needs to improve like this or become a journeyman - overdue being in contention on a sunday and hope that recent run will continue here - good putter too, 50 on Betfair 

had few thoughts about Huh, Wagner and even Delaet (course suits but out of form) - WAGNER may get some interest from me as he is a proven winner and born in texas (another with 3 career wins) 

Monday, April 02, 2012

example of golf trading

Trading Example

had some requests for info on how to trade the golf so will run through an example and hopefully this will be of some help...

just using 1 player for now..


ok...player A

* price is 200 and you back for 20pts

Betfair screen will show 3980.00 under his name (use the what if? option) and -20.00 under all other golfers

this means you have a potential profit of 3980pts if he wins (green) and a loss of 20pts (red) if he loses (ie any other player wins)


* he plays well and price drops to 50

now you can Lay him for various amounts depending on how you want to go...

Lay him for 20pts so clearing your stake - you now have a free bet as you have balanced your staking

if he wins, you would now win 3000pts > this is 3980 from the back bet above less your Lay bet of 980pts (20pts @ 49.0 = 980pt liability)

your screen will show 3000.00 under player A ingreen and 0.00 in green under all other players

so you have no loss risk and still have a big potential win on player A

2/ you could Lay him for 40pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 40pts so you are effectively 20pts in profit on your staking

if he wins, you would now win 2020pts > this is the original 3980pts back bet less your Lay bet of 1960pts (40pts @ 49.0 = 1960pt liability)

your screen would show 2020.00 in green under player A and 20.00 in green on all other players

so you have a green screen meaning profit on any result; a big win on player A still and small return on any other player

3/ you could Lay him for 70pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 70 making a profit on staking of 50pts

if he wins, you would now win 550pts > this is the original 3980pts back less your Lay bet of 3430pts (70pts @ 49.0 = 3430 liability)

your screen would show 550.00 under player A and 50.00 under all other players

so you have a green screen with profit on all outcomes; a decent win on player A and nice return on all other players


* this is if price drops to 50 which is 4 times less - if the price then dropped to say 20 you have a 'tenfold' drop.. these are obviously great as your options are the same but you can use bigger amounts

eg price of 20 to Lay now... assuming you didn't Lay off at 50, you can Lay for 200pts now and have a 180pt profit on any outcome at all

> your original 200pt back was 3980pts profit and your Lay now of 200pts @ 19.0 = 3800pt liability, so 3980 less 3800 = 180pt profit on your player A

> and your original 20pt back less your new 200pt Lay = 180pt profit on any other player

> ideal situation as you have a good profit (9 times your original stake!) whatever the result


* if the price drops more and down to say 5 then you are laughing as you can Lay for 800pts and have a green screen of 780pts on any result

> this is your 3980pt original back profit, less your new 3200pt Lay bet liability (800 @ 4.0 = 3200pts)

you now have a very good profit on any result (39 times your original stake)

this is an example of how you can avoid losing your stake, or make a profit on all outcomes - the levels depend on the prices and how much you Lay for

simple rules are >

* practice it until you know what you are doing

* use stakes you can afford to lose (ie your bank for the event) so there is no pressure or need to recoup meaning daft decisions

* decide if you want to make small profits all-round or have free bets and potential big profit on one player

* be flexible and assess all the relevant factors - don't get drawn into a fixed price to hit

>> and hopefully you will pick the right players and trade them to make good profits... this builds the bank up and then you can either use bigger stakes or select more players