cracking event and one of those where certain players just seem to jump out at you.. which probably means I'll be completely wrong this week but hey...
looking at the event form, there are a string of top players who have all posted good finishes here... leads to thinking that this will be dominated by the big name experienced players and I have to go with that as i think there are a few that are in such good form it would be daft to go mad looking for a big outsider (altho this is tempered by the fact its only open for the top golfers lol)
anyway, the blue monster isnt such a fearsome beast really and at 7200 yards isnt a problem for the majority distance-wise... 9 watery holes will be interesting but there should be plenty of birdies on offer and some great golf - big hitters will no doubt look at being 7 or 8 under on the par5s and -16 or better should win unless it blows a bit
my current rankings for this event >
kaymer 14.33 (world no 1 for me)
mcdowell 15.00 (cracking bet)
woods 17.33 (avoid)
quiros 20.17 (v good value)
westwood 21.17 (unsure)
poulter 21.17 (good bet)
mickelson 21.50 (avoid)
els 21.83 (unknown)
donald 23.17 (good bet)
casey 24.33 (avoid)
mcilroy 27.00 (avoid)
goosen 27.67 (possible)
stricker 28.00 (unsure)
furyk 28.33 (unsure)
watney 28.67 (good bet)
> these are my top 15 and some are good value and some aren't (my rankings are my overall rating and then include specific event form, etc) > micko & tiger look worth skipping to me; stricker & furyk aren't top of m,y list but do look good value at around 50 for anyone wanting to back them; donald is in great form, poulter could go well; ernie was poor last wk but last yr did that and then won here, jason day may step up a level here, etc
bets >
Alvaro QUIROS > my fav golfer and always back him but he looks a great shout this week if he is in charge of his game - surprisingly good on GIR which is required here (74%) and can putt like a demon at times - length means he will set up plenty of chances, in terrific form having won recently on Euro Tour, only just beaten by inform yang at matchplay...
played here last 2 yrs and shot -10 both times for 6th & 13th, can't really see any reason not to back him > 30/1 or 33 Betfair (expect him to shoot 64 or 65 at some point and hopefully no 75s!)
Graeme McDOWELL > stats are superb, accurate, hitting plenty of greens, putting ok, good scrambling - if he sinks a few then he will maintain his terrific overall form of the past yr and should be a solid shout although odds reflect this.. world top 5 and justifiably as he has risen to that next level and all stems I think from that great effort in the ryder cup 2 yrs ago or so > 14/1 isn't great for sure but worth a win only stab methinks
Nick WATNEY > still waiting for him to click and win regularly - could be about time > 2nd here 2 yrs ago, shoots a lot of birdies and doesn't drop too many as a top scrambler... if he is confident then he must be in with a good chance here and 20/1 will do
Charl SCHWARTZEL > in very good form and often over-looked which is handy but not so much any more.. just 28/1 but still a good shout as consistent, good record here (2nd last yr), string of good finishes...
Bubba WATSON > 50 (Betfair) attracts me here as bubba seems a different player now (sometimes happens when a family member passes away as the player finds a new perspective etc) - top ranked for GIR surprisingly... in form, no reason why he can't blast this course and shoot a very low number
> could pick any number of golfers here but will go with these.. trading-wise nothing really appeals other than chowrasia who can putt v well at 950
another good week as watney came through with a final round 67 to take the title by two shots
ReplyDeletea 20/1 winner helps the pot grow bigger :-)