Thursday, March 24, 2011

andalucian open & arnold palmer invitational

Andalucian Open >

LARRAZABAL > not in much form but capable... has improved GIR stats and hitting it further this yr but needs to get his putting back in the groove - if he does then he could make his odds look generous.. risky bet but may go well back on home soil.. 80 on Betfair

> hasn't yet hit the heights of last yr but started well last wk before falling away - another player not in form who may suddenly find his game so worth a dabble whilst odds are decent for me.. 66/1 available

LARA > hit and miss and flew out the blocks last wk.. could shoot 64 or 84 so risky but another that attracts me here; 3rd last wk after string of poor efforts... has won twice on tour so occasionally comes good.. 75 betfair

> perhaps due a win and played well here last year... not bad stats btu form isnt great although looked a bit more promising last wk.. 33/1 isnt that generous but could have a good week here so will dabble on him

trading > Storm at 151, Zanotti at 230 and Dodd at 320


Arnold Palmer Invitational >

bay hill is a long course but not really a problem for anyone these days and this course really suits neat accurate players and as always, good putters... so good ball-striking plus decent GIR will help - should also create plenty of birdie opps (par 72 now) although you can get stung hereif you're game isn't bang on

that leaves tiger, micko and a few others with question marks although tiger is interesting at these odds - more obvious would be the likes of allenby, chad c, zach j, o'hair, etc but their games don't look great currently... still worth a dabble though based on the course for sure so good luck anyone on them

traded couch a couple of wks back nicely but he has surprised me by upping his performance and looks a decent shout this wk but not sure he will win, his odds seem to have dropped a lot too which puts me off; laird likewise is in good form and impressing but not sure if he can win this... both close to being in my selections though

picks will be >

justin ROSE > not a fav of mine but having backed him last wk was pleased to see him shoot two 65s (laid off prior to final round which was a sensible move!) > think he will do similar here as course should suit and he may well be up there near the top after 3 so will go with that and Lay off againif he does... can win as he showed last yrbut not one I would have much faith in still - will be nanoyed having backed him last wk if he does well here and I don't (sometimes plays well 2-3 wks on trot) > 35 just enough to get the dough from me

dustin JOHNSON > thought I missed a trick not backing him recently when he took the lead after 3 rounds (WGC) but he fell away allowing my pick to win which was good lol - three top 10s in 6 events this yr; bounced back after a MC with 2nd last time out at that wgc event - has great stats, hits it miles and has good GIR nonetheless, putting well.. an all-round good player and although still wobbles sometimes on sunday - 4time tour winner so has experience too nowadays of winning... last couple of times here has had a single poor round which hasnt helped but could well be one of the better bets this wk for me > he is 2nd fav but at 20/1 looks juicy enough

ed MOLINARI > played here last yr for first time and came 2nd - has a great game and could well flourish on this tough course - has good GIR stats and is model of consistency with playing 4 days of events almost every wk he starts... defied the stats last yr by playing so well on debut and could benefit from that obviously, could be the yr he steps up after winning twice last yr on euro tour.. does need to find his form again as bit off colour currently but that helps the price > 65 on Betfair looks generous

ernie ELS > stats and results last yr were so good and much more impressive than you would think.. backed him a few wks back and he didnt click ut dont want to miss out on him suddenly getting his game together, 40/1 (43 Betfair) is enough to warrant a back for me as he hits a lot of GIR and can putt and scramble superbly when on song - defending champ so why not a repeat for the big easy

trading > Chad Campbell at 110 (ideal for course and good record here), Tommy Gainey at 240 (form) and Arjun Atwal @ 610 (good putter)

1 comment:

  1. not much joy this week for a change... LARA is only 2 off the lead in spain right now though and trading at 11 or so... backed at 70 so lay at 12 would be almost 6 times better which helps the week and almost clears the losses on the rest...

    no such joy in the US this week with my picks not doing a lot at all... mentioned laird was close to being a pick and obviously annoyed now that I didn't pick him as my 5th shout.. could have laid off at 2.0 for a lovely profit but can't get them every week!