Thursday, March 17, 2011

transitions championship

this week i have resorted to picking some in form and some with good history at this course - like the idea of picking watney again but after backing him for a few wks and him paying off last wk I might skip altho no surprise if he is top 5

very close to picking Choi for his record here, and Harrington but will go with these this wk...

Retief GOOSEN > not one I'd pick normally and not sure about him when in contention these days but has won here and could be one to lurk then strike at the weekend if he posts a good score early on and gets the clubhouse lead... 30/1 appeals enough to warrant some investment

Bubba WATSON > backed him last wk due to his current excellent form, stats etc and the fact he seems to have become mentally stonger now so should really stick with him for another week - long off the tee but surprisingly no 1 ranked for GIR which is amazing really.. if he putts well which he can then he could win here... doubt being the illness of last wk, 29 Betfair

Justin ROSE > another who I rarely back but cant ignore agood record here and his safe neat and tidy tee to green game should bode wlel for him here... he needs to sink a few and be keen to win rather than accept another paycheque which is my worry but he did click on this tour last yr and may well be more mature these days > 40/1 best

Stuart APPLEBY > 60/1 is high enough for me and looks a decent price for apples who is getting back to his old self - banished a long run of poor form with a win last yr and has got good recent form here too... could go well and that price is encouraging for me

Ryan MOORE > had him in mind for this as sneaking along without much notice, in good form and should go well here as has played this course well previously... 50s again looks like decent value

trading > had a result with Hunter Haas last wk and worth a nibble at 160 here if his form stays good, Tommy Gainey at 125 as in good form, Kent Jones again at a big 730


  1. moore, appleby and rose all inside the top 11 after 2 rounds so looking good - need them to stay up there on moving saturday rather than blowout...

  2. well, all 5 of this week's picks made the cut which was good for starters; drifted a bit in round 3 but that is often the case..

    appleby was going really well until the 3rd round when a 77 put paid to him (still think he might show up at the masters briefly so will bear that in mind)

    ryan moore likewise was ticking over nicely but a 3-over round has stopped him in his tracks; bubba never got his game on song this week; goose shot a nice 68 in the 3rd round but is too far back at -4

    which leaves rose as my other pick and he's managed to post back-to-back 65s and sits atop the leaderboard - price is now about 3.1 to lay which is handy (originally over 40 when tipped pre-tourney)

    laying off plenty as there are a number within reach and rose has never been one to hold a lead really and has had a lot of 4th round blowouts although he did improve in this respect last year

    another big profit this week as rose has covered all the other bets and trades

  3. was a good move to lay plenty off on rose as he shot a 74 in the final round and slipped back to tied 5th...

    this is where the trading pays dividends as you forego some of a potential win but still get a return rather than risking it all -

    percentage-wise it was a definite lay for me as the amount of golfers within touching distance, rose not usually being a great one to hold a lead, the fact he had already shot two 65s on the trot making it unlikely he would find a 3rd, etc

    continues the run of profitable weeks which is very pleasing... couple of winners and some places is nice but getting the picks into position so I can trade out for a green screen is the trick and it's working well