Wednesday, May 02, 2012

wells fargo championship

off to North Carolina this week for the excellent WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP which was more recently known as the Wachovia Championship; this is where young Rory shot 64/62 at the weekend to win and truly announce himself on the world stage a couple of years ago

we have a really good field this week and with Quail Hollow being a tough course, this promises to be an excellent few days of golf

great to see the boy wonder, micko, tiger, westwood all competing and shame donald isn't there too but still a mouth-watering event - previous winners indicate that the cream usually rises to the top in this championship

this course demands everything, good accuracy off the tee as you will struggle if you aren't top 30 or so here, GIR as always or else you have to be a top scrambler, and the greens really find you out so good putters will more than most weeks prosper here

so a good all-round effort basically and hence the consistent top players do well - course has got a bit easier perhaps in recent yrs although this week may have longer rough apparently - mcilroy and westwood should find the greens well but their flat stick will determine their results hence rory being a few pts lower

tiger is a conundrum as ever - if he has his swing back then can he read the putts? augusta was a strange one from him as he looked to be back

micko is hard to call but is starting to look value when checking his record here and his results this season

young players can do well here too however although they do have to be either already good (rory) or of top potential

I have updated my rankings so will have a look at them although I have a few in mind to pick and one or two locals who may well put in extra effort being on home turf

my rankings >

1 mcilroy 10.33
2 woods 12.00
3 mickelson 14.67
4 westwood 18.83
5 mahan 22.50
6 simpson 24.83
7 haas 26.50
8 bradley 29.50
9 z johnson 31.67
10 furyk 34.17
11 van pelt 35.50

* this is the top 11 of my top 25 world ranked currently... thus my rankings which include course / event form as well as current form and mental strength etc indicate that these would be the finishing positions > what I then do is look for the prices and what I think and pick my golfers from there...

* mickelson hasn't won here but has a great consistent record, tiger can obviously win if he has regained his swing which looked great pre-masters, rory should be fav and is, and so on

> looking at betfair, haas looks over-priced at 55 but he has lost a bit of form; simpson likewise is a bit generous at 36 as being a wake forest grad and a member here you would expect him to do better than his form dictates

> furyk is just 25 on betfair but that is explained by his terrific record here - he is definitely worth looking at as the rankings show him to be good value performance wise but his price already reflects that

> outside of these top 11 here, my rankings show good weeks for huh, byrd, villegas so all of these are worth watching; byrd may have the 'new dad' feelgood factor which often can inspire/relax players; huh looks to have great potential and villegas is hinting at a return to form and this course should suit him

* local players of interest should be simpson & haas mentioned already and de jonge too

* outsiders could be karlsson (250) who has no form but can click, a great scrambler too and capable of suddenly shooting 66s.. ken duke (150) has been peppering the leaderboard recently too as has mathis (430) and will claxton is quite a talented player so worth watching (470)

picks >

think I will swerve rory and unsure of tiger so micko gets the vote at the top...

MICKELSON > terrific record here but no W on his record - could be about to change as he may well sneak through and win here if he can keep the wild holes away and sink a few - record and form are so good so he gets the nod for me at 13 betfair

FURYK > 25 isn't high but can't ignore his record and the fact he will probably plod around without any fuss - seems to be bang on with his game again and sinking putts that matter... a boring but solid pick and he should continue his terrific record here

SIMPSON > perhaps a chance for the local lad to shine in a decent field and regain a bit of the glow he gained last year when playing so well so regularly; top 15 last wk and has been top 10 a few times already this year, 36 b/f

CURTIS > having won 2 weeks ago and made the top 15 last wk I will ride the crest with ben and as he has a 2nd place finish here previously (proving amongst others that shorter hitters can do well here) he could well nip into the frame again as he is currently playing well with great stats for accuracy GIR etc - 95 betfair

BYRD > often back this guy and he knows how to win - may be off the boil with a few wks off but that new dad factor really can help! 90 is attractive for last year's runner-up - couple of top 10s this yr and played well at augusta

trading > definitely going to see how we go with De JONGE (sign of form last week and decent here previously too, hoping for a fast start at 130

DUKE as in good touch and again good here previously, 150

VILLEGAS 180 as he may be picking up again and his tee to green game is solid

not sure about karlsson so HUH at 100 completes the traders, talented young player and in form

top10 bets > HAAS at about 5 is decent as I think he will be up there, can also get HUH CURTIS and BYRD at about 8.2 to 9 which all attract

top 5 markets > furyk 5.9 and simpson 8.4 are appealing although smaller stakes for me


  1. byrd started well and dropped to 40 quickly but evened out thereafter; de jonge down to 50 as a trade which was good.. but simpson stole the show with a 65 to lead after round 1 and price dropped to 6 or so to lay... lovely!

  2. byrd moving up a bit but simpson flying still... 4.5 to lay now

    byrd curtis good moves in the top 10 market too (byrd 5 to lay) and simpson 1.8 to lay in the top 5 market... good stuff

  3. simpson played poorly in the final round, his wayward driving catching up with him... fowler took the win in a playoff

    simpson was a sensible lay at 3.75 into the final round (I posted about this but my comment wasnt published, oops) due to the amount of players close to him and the quality (rory etc)

    top 5 simpson paid out and top 10 byrd and curtis paid out as both finished well > curtis made the top 5 (tied) and byrd finished 9th

    curtis made the top 5 too so of my 5 picks, 2 were placed and plenty of room for laying too... and the top 5/top 10 markets proved profitable again

    another good week with trading helping yet again

  4. ps de jonge traded down to 50 too early on so that was a quick trade as expected, others not so good