now this is a tricky course so should really benefit those who have great course management skills and know how to think their way around the course; calm, mature players should prosper although there have been some winners who have won on debut (Bradley last yr a prime example)
a par 70 so not too many 5s to gobble birdies up on - this should mean that the shorter, more accurate players do well indeed and those who have good records here back that up
this course has had changes made in 08 and in the last 2 years the greens have had their 'air sub system' re-done as per Augusta and thus the greens are now truer and more consistent apparently - this is also borne out by the fact that the putting stats in last couple of years have been more relevant whereas previously they weren't and it was a case of hitting greens in reg. > so, this points me towards the more relaxed,laid-back golfers and those who can hit their greens and also are good putters (Pettersson springs to mind straight away)
it is often windy too here and this makes scoring tricky so always worth considering those who play well in the breeze as well as locals or those who often raise their game or get better results in the lone star state
picks >
adam SCOTT > fairly solid pick his week in this relatively weak field; went for him last week and he started brightly but fell away unfortunately - has won this before (3rd also in just 3 starts) so has plenty of ticks in the right boxes this week (ranked 1 in par 4 birdies).. seems to be warming up for an assault on the world top 10 and a win here would be a terrific step up (long overdue too) - only worry is him missing a few tiddlers but hopefully the man from adelaide will be the one this week > win bet at 14
carl PETTERSSON > caught my eye years ago as one of those players who plods along not doing much but then finds a win every now and again - has the knack of putting it together for all 4 rounds every now and again - has won once this yr so maybe that was it for 2012 but he is in excellent form and is a renowned putter - ranked 1 for par 4 birdies (as is scott above) and that is useful here on a par 70; putting well as ever and a good each way shout if he can hang on to his form for one more week > 30 betfair
ryan PALMER > local lad and that clinches it for me - back him a lot as he is another who plods along then picks a win from nowhere every now and again - has been in good form and results could be even better recently but for weak final rounds; 4th at the Zurich a couple of weeks back and more than capable of putting well and notching a 4th career win here - I'm sure he would love to and should be well supported.. and lost in a play-off here last year which confirms all the above! > 48 is good on betfair
jhonattan VEGAS > texas resident hitting form nicely it seems - played well last week at the Players and is hitting plenty of greens in the right numbers, and is sinking putts beautifully too - the right combo for this course although his stats aren't good this yr, needs to keep it a bit straighter and keep the putter hot or else he could blow out here - terrific rookie year with that win and finding it tougher this yr but signs are good after top 10 last week - risky bet but odds are good at 80 betfair
brian DAVIS > another in good form and seems to play well here managing a 2nd and 8th in recent yrs; has posted 4th, 4th, 13th 39th 9th and 25th in last 6 tour starts which is solid and consistent - stats arent fab but is in prime form and should go well - shot each round under 69 in 09 when 2nd here so good memories, 46 betfair just enough to tempt
the not quite picked group this week consists of Oosty (always a threat), Rollins, Huh, Gay, Wagner, Pampling... might look to get involved with those in running (could be the ideal sort of tournament for Wagner)
trading >
odds look attractive on Harrison Frazar 110, Arjun Atwal 180, Patrick Reed 350, Will Claxton 340 so will look at those for quick starts as always
Top 10 market >
Vegas 7.8, Atwal 13.0, Pampling 12.0 and Palmer 5.0 all attract me
trades not doing much but vegas and palmer off to flyers... vegas led early and dropped to 18 to lay (from 80!) and then eased off a bit... finished -3 which is handy though
ReplyDeletepalmer leads after round 1 with a -6 score of 64; looking good and already down to 10 to lay!!