Thursday, January 12, 2012

sony open

Off to Hawaii this week and the SONY OPEN; quite a different test compared with last week as this course is short and tight and at just over 7,000 yards should bring out the best in the neat, accurate players

Defending champion is Mark Wilson and there are a few here who have very good records in this event > Stricker has a 3rd and two 4ths in last 4 yrs here, C Howell III has a great record and Chad Campbell also does well here

Choi is a previous winner and is in excellent form - also finished last week with a 65 so he will be a popular choice no doubt

Stricker is fav and 8.6 to back isn't bad actually - I'm not tempted but can't knock the chances of last week's winner who has won 8 times in his last 50 starts (12 tour titles in total)

Webb Simpson seems to have started the year well where he left off last and should go well here too but price is a bit too short for me

Jerry Kelly, John Senden and Mark Wilson will probably all have their followers this week

Experience counts for a lot here as the rookies don't tend to fare too well although I will be watching Bud Cauley with interest as he was so impressive in getting his card in no time at all last year

My picks for the Sony are:

KJ CHOI > popular this week as price is just 15 on betfair but looks good enough for me; played well last week and that closing -8 round will give him good confidence for this event - should enjoy the tighter course and small greens and having won this event in '08 there is no reason not to back him really - played well at the tail-end of last yr too and having discovered the winning feeling last yr again after a hiatus, he looks a really solid back this week > 15 on betfair and probably worth a straight win bet on fixed odds

SABBATINI > horses for courses as Rory has twice been runner-up here in recent years and does seem to play well in Hawaii; managed to make the top 10 last week despite a 2 shot penalty for being tardy to the tee in round 2.. currently 38 on betfair and backing him as he does seem to play well on certain courses and is always capable of going really low which may be possible here if the wind drops

TOMS > didn't feature last week unsurprisingly but should come to the fore here as the course plays to his strengths and he has won this before too of course; hope last week was a good warm-up > 44 betfair is tempting enough

Keegan BRADLEY > surprised to see his price so high and after finishing well last week he may go against the grain of older players doing well here > 32 betfair is very tempting

these 4 for me and I would expect to see Stricker, Kelly, Senden, Simpson, Howell and Wilson probably in the Top 10 or not far off - hard to see too many at big prices this week so will stick with my picks 

1 comment:

  1. choi got off to a good start in round 1 but then faded with a 73, toms and rory not showing but bradley has been lurking and now midway through the final round has just popped in an eagle to go joint leader at -10 > plenty in with a shout but he is now about 6.4 so a reasonable lay to get some dough back! will see how this pans out