Monday, April 02, 2012

golf trading tips (part 2)

When to back or lay?

With regard to setting a price target for trading >

* It depends on many factors so I don't really have a price in mind or a target, I look at various factors and decide accordingly... and then maybe Lay it all off for a free bet or green screen or whatever

Factors are >

what stage of the tourney is it?
what stake did I use?
how is he playing so far?
how is the course playing/weather forecast?
what is the score in relation to others?
does he have a chance of winning?
is he a good finisher or a weekend blowout type?
is his score good or bad compared with his play quality?

and so on...

Reasoning behind these points is as follows >

what stage of the tourney is it?

This makes a big difference on Betfair obviously - if it's round 1 and the player is a big outsider then the price will drop but not to low figures unless he has gone 4 clear etc - eg yesterday I got barnes at 500 and 510 (average 505) and he shot a 66 which was 2 behind the leader; very well placed and his price has dropped to 75 to Lay.. now that is instant small profit if I want it... being this early in the tourney tho' there is a likelihood that he will start over par in rd2 and price will fly up again

Thus, bearing in mind other factors, I would be thinking of laying this off a lot if not all as it's early in the event - if it was rd 3 then the price would be considerably lower and I would run more of it if not all

(some people think if you punt at big odds and they do well then why not run the whole lot and try and win big but that's fixed odds punting rather than trading and I think smaller regular profit is more sensible)

Example would be Palmer when he won - I backed him at 390 and he shot 65 opening day to lead, price dropped but only to 30 I think.. then he hung around the top of the board so he dropped to 8 or so by weekend, then he still played well and was up there so dropped to about 3.75 by final round as by then he had a very clear chance of winning - 18 holes to mess up rather than say 54 so price reflected that - he was no different scorewise to the field really from day 1 to 3 but the time left and potential win had changed drastically

what stake did I use?

If you use a very small stake then it's probably not worth trading too much - if you use a considerable stake then you have more options - I constantly strive to build the bank up so I can use a %age of it with no worries if I lose - this then means bigger stakes so you have more worthwhile options

eg £2 at 200 and price drops to 20 you aren't going to be hugely in profit laying off, but if it was £20 at 200 and the price drops to 20 then you could Lay off for £200 and have a £180 profit on any result or alternatively Lay for £100 and have a big potential profit on that player (£2080) and a nice £80 on everyone else

how is he playing so far?

Has he chipped in 3 times and sunk some 50-foot putts or is he playing really well and looking capable of going low again, that kind of thing

course/weather forecast?

Look at who else is due to play and when ie late starters in the day, has the wind died down, is it forecast for wind the next day, what are tee times, is the course drying out, are the greens getting roughened up etc all things that may affect certain players due to their type of shot or ability in certain conditions etc

score in relation to others?

If the fav is 4 shots clear then the Betfair price on your outsider just wont come down, it will climb... the winning likelihood is reduced massively... if there are a lot of players within a few shots then equally it's hard to get the price lower - if the field is strung out and some others at the top are lowly ranked then the price may well drop significantly as the market will view the winning chance as much higher

chance of winning?

Some players can win tournaments, Palmer I mentioned I backed because he has a record of winning occasionally from nowhere..others haven't - this doesn't mean they won't win but the chance is what I assess - I would rather back a player at 400 who has a win on his CV as this may mean a quicker drop in price if he plays well as the market realises the chance of a win is maybe higher than a maiden at 400

This also depends on whether I Lay on a sunday morning - if a player is in contention but I don't rate him winning then I will Lay and accept it if he wins... some though have the winning touch and I will probably run those

good finisher or weekend blowout?

As above really - some players see the winning line and choke, some go for it... some are excellent tournament starters but can't hold on for 4 rounds.. all to do with mental strength really and affects my Lay decision

good or bad score?

As above to how is he playing - is the score relatively good, or early in the day, or did he play averagely but perhaps get lucky with an eagle or two - was it a 'quality round' means did he hit a lot of GIR and have tap-ins or did he have some luck

I assess the field scores and hole scores quickly and see if it was a career best or just a good day at work - this means is there more in the tank and should I keep the bet open


>> This may sound a lot but it is a fairly methodical way of assessing quickly the value of the price... I do like a price to drop by ten times ie 100 down to 10 or 400 down to 40 - this gives me ample room for profit all round and still keeping a big potential on the original bet

If I get lucky (Palmer at 390 winning) then I cash in all the way.. laying off regularly when the price is low and guaranteeing decent profit all round

If I have a decent start with someone who I'm not so confident with then I trade and accept I may be blowing a bigger win - this can work with short prices too ie a player may be 10 so I may back him to Lay at 5... simple and not too tricky if he is the sort to often trade lower than starting price

Someone like Quiros I will probably trade back and forth as he is more likely to go to 80 then back to 15!

So, in summary, there is no fixed price or target - I assess and react accordingly due to a number of factors.. looking for a few or even one of my trades each event to be a good 'un and to cover everything else - and then big wins come along to make life better 

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