another masters golf comp

OLBG and bet365 are now offering £500 worth of bets in a 'betting bank'!

just need to join up and have a £10 bet with bet365 and you can enter! simple as that

link is here >

OLBG GOLF COMP

to join OLBG, click here >

FREE TIPSTER COMPETITION

good luck

us masters golf challenge

US MASTERS time again and OLBG have their usual GOLF CHALLENGE

free to enter and you could win cash and free bets

see this link for details >

MASTERS GOLF CHALLENGE

simple competition but it's tough to win!

and, to join OLBG with no obligation and have a chance to win some of the £3,000 per month that OLBG reward us with, click here >

FREE TIPSTER COMPETITION

good luck folks

shell houston open

off to texas this week for the masters curtain-raiser that is the Shell HOUSTON OPEN; a fairly decent event that is a good tune-up for the first major of the season next week... a reasonable field assembled again and on open event as there are plenty of would-be winners as well as a few fancied names who may be not overly concerned with winning this week as they look to sharpen up for augusta

the problem this week is that there are so many potential winners and the prices aren't great as the bulk of the likely victors are in the 20-100 range.. the course is fairly generous insofar as you can spray it about a bit but the rough is reasonably harsh as the scrambling stats show some struggles usually if you miss greens; fairly big greens and although long the course doesn't really favour the bombers - one of those courses that rewards the best player that week - hi tit straight and sink a few putts basically!

anyway, have updated my rankings and after removing those who aren't competing this week we have the following top 15 >

my rank / name / my ranking points 

1	stricker	13.33
3	westwood	14.67
6	schwartzel	17.83
11	mickelson	23.33
13	bradley	26.67
15	mahan	28.17
18	mcdowell	29.67
19	hanson	30.83
32	bjorn	38.33
35	senden	39.83
37	wagner	40.50
41	stanley	41.33
42	els	41.33
44	baddeley	43.17
47	oosthuizen	44.67

> thus I have stricker as the top-rated here slightly ahead of westy with charl and defending champ mickelson next... nothing amazing there obviously

> my rankings show me a value or trend and I skew my ratings towards the event a fair bit - so here stricker is the best bet for the win to me... having a good record here and the sort of course he prospers on means he is better value at 18 than westy or micko at 13/14

my value rankings show HANSON, WAGNER, STANLEY and ELS as all being worthwhile investments this week - I then look at the prices to see if the market is generous or not..

hanson at 55 looks high, wagner has been backed down to 38 which is backable still, stanley is 55 and els 34 which again look ok - these guys look more solid to me than others

westy could and should win but top 5 looks about right; micko won last year with blistering weekend scoring of 63,65 but surely is more concerned with next week.. 
I have backed schwartzel a few times recently but last time out he had a rare blowout, another looking to sharpen up for augusta where he should be a decent bet to retain his green jacket
bradley could enjoy this long course, probably more likely to do well this week rather than next for me.. mahan has already won this year and is always a worth looking at but not for me here although his record is good with regular top 10s interspersed with MCs!, mcdowell  bounced back into form last week but is work in progress for me still


bjorn could go well at a biggish price as he is solid and much better bet than senden who just can't get those putts in when it matters.. badds and oosty are in my top 15 ranked players but neither really appeal for the win here; badds perhaps may prove me wrong but 34 isn't enough to tempt me with others looking stronger for me
at higher prices and further down the rankings are harrington (65 now which isn't that high but he has been consistent here and that recent 61 showed signs of him being almost back), cauley who keeps showing his face in the top 10 (60 betfair) and stenson who is back to some good form and can get away with a few wild shots here perhaps (50 means people have already got on to him)


so, picks for this week are >

ELS > will give him another go as he has paid out nicely recently each way and top 10, in great form and needs the win for an entry into augusta - needs to be confident and sink some putts but good value at 34
WAGNER > this guy keeps the odd win coming so no problem if he is in contention, as a previous winner here he has to have the confidence and as he is currently flying and leading the fedex pts etc, no reason not to back the tache - 34
HANSON > could be a great price for the always under-rated swede here; in good solid form as always and can win.. price should be nearer 35 or so not 55 so I'm happy to go with him here
STANLEY > another winner this year already and have to love the way he came back the week after taking 8 on the 18th and blowing a 3 shot lead - aggressive and should enjoy this week, could give this a good run at 55
last pick was really down to the difference between stricker at 18 or bradley at 20 and I will favour my usual in SS - has the game, the ability to notch loads of birdies, stats are great and the course should be ideal... consistently good here and has to be on the list basically so STRICKER it is


thus, expecting a top 10 of these 5 plus probably westy, bjorn, cauley, pod and baddeley


top 10 bets > after great success with these in the past fortnight when I started looking at them, prices look worth taking for cauley 5.8, wagner 4.6 and hanson 5.6


trading > estes likes this course so perhaps 500 on him early doors, 350 for jason bohn and 530 for greg owen too... couples at 150 looks tight but in great form and has done well here with a couple of top 5s in recent years

AFL > aussie rules doncha know...

AFL is the aussies rules game (australian football league) or 'footy' as it's called down under

much better game than it may seem at first and in some aussie cities, it's the biggest sport by a long way

anyway - it does throw up some great opportunities and the handicaps can sometimes be generous so there will be plenty of good bets to be had in the next 6 months

started at the weekend with the debut of the GIANTS (greater western sydney) and there initial game versus sydney swans was the curtain-raiser for the season... the bookies had them at about 1.9 on the handicap of +90.5pts which seemed fair given previous debut teams' performances.. this looked worth taking to me as I tweeted and the giants duly managed to hold sydney swans to under 70pts and thus the bet paid out handsomely

I will stick up my bets each week for all the games and see how we get on - obviously highlighting any really good value prices

trading the footie at 2-0

trading the footie when a game is 2-0... or 3-1.. or 4-2 even!

have watched the over-reaction of the market when a game goes from a 1 goal lead to a 2 goal margin and noticed there is plenty of room for making a good profit IF the losing team gets the next goal...

the price depends on the teams, the time left and so on but usually the market changes drastically as they think the team 2 down have no chance of getting the win > now this may well be true but it's the price movement we are working with here..

if the losing team get the next goal, the market swings back as dramatically which gives a great chance to trade out of your position and guarantee a profit

here is the thread post I put on OLBG a while back regarding this >

"just back a team that's just gone probably 2 goals behind and the price to back has shot up

example being spurs last wk > price went up to 80 as soon as arsenal went 2-0 up > didn't seem any way back for a poor spurs at HT but worth a punt based on the price

as soon as spurs scored, the price dropped back to about 6 > easy trading situation there (price subsequently went lower as spurs drew level and then odds-on when they went 3-2 up but can ignore those situations as just backing the original 2 goal price change)

so, back 10pts at 80 > possible profit 790, loss 10pts (stake)

price contracts after the goal to 6, Lay for 133.33pts > profit is now 123.33pts so a huge return whatever the outcome of the match - a terrific greening up scenario

> granted you need to get the bets on and hope for the market to form again before another goal etc

> this will often be a lost stake but if the return is big then you can afford a few losses - there are also other permutations or you could increase the stake and then hope for a really big return

you could always keep a bit running and in this case (spurs winning 3-2) the return would have been excellent

there are quite a few occasions where one team goes 2 up and the price increases a lot (more so when the big teams are leading of course) but any situation where the price is big enough it can warrant a back bet in the hope of the losing team notching next"

 last week saw another corker with qpr being 2-0 down to liverpool with not too much of the game remaining - their price was 750! backing this in the hope of the next goal being qpr's would have paid well as their price dropped hugely


not only that but they scored again as it happens so anyone staying in would have been laughing


and they went on to win 3-2 which is a rare turnaround but massively profitable obviously!


the main point here though is trading out after the losing team score the next goal > ie 2-0 becomes 2-1 and you take advantage of the big change in price from a team being anything from 8.0 to 80 or even 800 occasionally


the above example of qpr is rare price-wise but you can often get 80 as a price to back - if that next goal goes in it becomes 2-1 then the price may well drop to say 8.0 so you can trade (lay) and make a big profit (10 times stake basically)


thus >>


when a team goes 2-0 up, back the losing side at a big price


if losing team score next, trade out and make a decent profit


simple enough and worth tracking as it can reward well for little risk - you could equally lay the winning team once they are 2-0 up and then back them if it becomes 2-1


I'll try and check this but it's hard to back-track this sort of data - also needs to be live games in-running of course