Sunday, March 25, 2012

trading the footie at 2-0

trading the footie when a game is 2-0... or 3-1.. or 4-2 even!

have watched the over-reaction of the market when a game goes from a 1 goal lead to a 2 goal margin and noticed there is plenty of room for making a good profit IF the losing team gets the next goal...

the price depends on the teams, the time left and so on but usually the market changes drastically as they think the team 2 down have no chance of getting the win > now this may well be true but it's the price movement we are working with here..

if the losing team get the next goal, the market swings back as dramatically which gives a great chance to trade out of your position and guarantee a profit

here is the thread post I put on OLBG a while back regarding this >

"just back a team that's just gone probably 2 goals behind and the price to back has shot up

example being spurs last wk > price went up to 80 as soon as arsenal went 2-0 up > didn't seem any way back for a poor spurs at HT but worth a punt based on the price

as soon as spurs scored, the price dropped back to about 6 > easy trading situation there (price subsequently went lower as spurs drew level and then odds-on when they went 3-2 up but can ignore those situations as just backing the original 2 goal price change)

so, back 10pts at 80 > possible profit 790, loss 10pts (stake)

price contracts after the goal to 6, Lay for 133.33pts > profit is now 123.33pts so a huge return whatever the outcome of the match
- a terrific greening up scenario

> granted you need to get the bets on and hope for the market to form again before another goal etc

> this will often be a lost stake but if the return is big then you can afford a few losses - there are also other permutations or you could increase the stake and then hope for a really big return

you could always keep a bit running and in this case (spurs winning 3-2) the return would have been excellent

there are quite a few occasions where one team goes 2 up and the price increases a lot (more so when the big teams are leading of course) but any situation where the price is big enough it can warrant a back bet in the hope of the losing team notching next"
 last week saw another corker with qpr being 2-0 down to liverpool with not too much of the game remaining - their price was 750! backing this in the hope of the next goal being qpr's would have paid well as their price dropped hugely

not only that but they scored again as it happens so anyone staying in would have been laughing

and they went on to win 3-2 which is a rare turnaround but massively profitable obviously!

the main point here though is trading out after the losing team score the next goal > ie 2-0 becomes 2-1 and you take advantage of the big change in price from a team being anything from 8.0 to 80 or even 800 occasionally

the above example of qpr is rare price-wise but you can often get 80 as a price to back - if that next goal goes in it becomes 2-1 then the price may well drop to say 8.0 so you can trade (lay) and make a big profit (10 times stake basically)

thus >>

when a team goes 2-0 up, back the losing side at a big price

if losing team score next, trade out and make a decent profit

simple enough and worth tracking as it can reward well for little risk - you could equally lay the winning team once they are 2-0 up and then back them if it becomes 2-1

I'll try and check this but it's hard to back-track this sort of data - also needs to be live games in-running of course


  1. norwich 2-0 down today to city... went to 200 IR although 150 got traded well

    > then scored so price was 32-40 to lay for a handy profit

    another winner

    there were 4 winners out of 6 a couple of weeks ago in the premier league.. massive w/end for backing the 2 goal down side

  2. massive couple of results for this theory in last few days

    MAN UTD were 3-1 then 4-2 up and both times everton got the next goal... so at 3-1 you back everton or the draw and lay utd > any way wins!

    4-2 you do the same again.. in this case it went 4-3 and another winner (and you dont need to stay in to hope for the full comeback although it happened)

    then BARCA were 1.01 against chelsea and 2-0 up.. they were incredibly low event when 1-0 and 2-1 up as well > millions ere traded on them at sub 1.05 and just shows how much this can pay out when you have a well-fancied team at home leading

    so the 2 goal gap is a huge potential profit maker.. these games show how much so (even if gettin gout after the 'next goal' is scored