Monday, November 01, 2010

melbourne cup

tuesday is 'race that stops a nation' day here... apparently $1bn is lost from the economy in production as most of the population tune in..

expected turnover on this one race is $150m... or could be a bit less if it rains lol

anyway, the weather is predicted to be poor and it could be a wet track so those who like the mud and good old stayers should prosper in this (3200m) race

market has been fluctuating with all the money for the superstar SO YOU THINK pre- Cox Plate which he duly won in style - then the money disappeared as many doubts were raised over his ability to run in his style over this long trip - Bart Cummings sent him out on Saturday in the McKinnon and he duly won that although the intention was mainly to settle him midfield in order to prep him for the big one tomorrow - consequently the money has poured back in and he is down to a shortish price fav again at about 4.0

SHOCKING has lengthened in the market and is now a very attractive 9.0 as won this last yr and hasn't done anything wrong this yr other than been overshadowed by SYT

I personally have backed both at higher prices (see OLBG thread for proof) and have laid some off on SYT so have a nice position - also backed MALUCKYDAY at 70 pre the Lexus last Sat with the intended gamble on him winning and thus dropping massively for the MC (posted up on OLBG) - he duly obliged and won in style and is now just 10.5 for the MC so I have a nice profit and free bet still on that selection

DESCARADO will like the rain and is a good each way shout at about 12.0

of the others, there may be a surprise package - MONACO CONSUL dabbled on previously at 48 and that's about half that now.. could do well but the main protagonists do look to be the ones to pick the winner from

SO YOU THINK is a class act and has the talent of course but will really need to be ridden well and tactically perfectly in order to stay off the pace and then strike near home - he likes to be just on the pace and then cruise through with a few furlongs left and is too quick for the field normally - whether he will have enough in the tank or will go too early we shall see but the lay after backing at 12s looks sensible to me so I'm happy with that -I may well have some more on SHOCKING although already on at 12s too

that should do for me as I've already traded well on this event and can sit back and enjoy it - no prediction really as I've already posted about this on OLBG but if I had to I would expect SYT to struggle with the longer distance and maybe get picked off but it would be foolish to go against the knowledge of bart c of course - if he thinks he can win then he probably will - talent not in question, purely the trip
SHOCKING is probably the one to go for as having won it last yr knows what to do and can handle the trip - ran well recently lugging a big weight so won't have any issues; and as mentioned an each-way shout on DESCARADO is probably a sensible call too

1 comment:

  1. Americain produced a terrific run and finish to see of SYT who just ran out of steam after looking the likely winner at the 250 to go pole; Maluckyday battled home for 2nd which augurs well and was a great result for me having taken a gamble on him qualifying and getting on early at 70 on betfair (laid some off)