another masters golf comp

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us masters golf challenge

US MASTERS time again and OLBG have their usual GOLF CHALLENGE

free to enter and you could win cash and free bets

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MASTERS GOLF CHALLENGE

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good luck folks

shell houston open

off to texas this week for the masters curtain-raiser that is the Shell HOUSTON OPEN; a fairly decent event that is a good tune-up for the first major of the season next week... a reasonable field assembled again and on open event as there are plenty of would-be winners as well as a few fancied names who may be not overly concerned with winning this week as they look to sharpen up for augusta

the problem this week is that there are so many potential winners and the prices aren't great as the bulk of the likely victors are in the 20-100 range.. the course is fairly generous insofar as you can spray it about a bit but the rough is reasonably harsh as the scrambling stats show some struggles usually if you miss greens; fairly big greens and although long the course doesn't really favour the bombers - one of those courses that rewards the best player that week - hi tit straight and sink a few putts basically!

anyway, have updated my rankings and after removing those who aren't competing this week we have the following top 15 >

my rank / name / my ranking points 

1	stricker	13.33
3	westwood	14.67
6	schwartzel	17.83
11	mickelson	23.33
13	bradley	26.67
15	mahan	28.17
18	mcdowell	29.67
19	hanson	30.83
32	bjorn	38.33
35	senden	39.83
37	wagner	40.50
41	stanley	41.33
42	els	41.33
44	baddeley	43.17
47	oosthuizen	44.67

> thus I have stricker as the top-rated here slightly ahead of westy with charl and defending champ mickelson next... nothing amazing there obviously

> my rankings show me a value or trend and I skew my ratings towards the event a fair bit - so here stricker is the best bet for the win to me... having a good record here and the sort of course he prospers on means he is better value at 18 than westy or micko at 13/14

my value rankings show HANSON, WAGNER, STANLEY and ELS as all being worthwhile investments this week - I then look at the prices to see if the market is generous or not..

hanson at 55 looks high, wagner has been backed down to 38 which is backable still, stanley is 55 and els 34 which again look ok - these guys look more solid to me than others

westy could and should win but top 5 looks about right; micko won last year with blistering weekend scoring of 63,65 but surely is more concerned with next week.. 
I have backed schwartzel a few times recently but last time out he had a rare blowout, another looking to sharpen up for augusta where he should be a decent bet to retain his green jacket
bradley could enjoy this long course, probably more likely to do well this week rather than next for me.. mahan has already won this year and is always a worth looking at but not for me here although his record is good with regular top 10s interspersed with MCs!, mcdowell  bounced back into form last week but is work in progress for me still


bjorn could go well at a biggish price as he is solid and much better bet than senden who just can't get those putts in when it matters.. badds and oosty are in my top 15 ranked players but neither really appeal for the win here; badds perhaps may prove me wrong but 34 isn't enough to tempt me with others looking stronger for me
at higher prices and further down the rankings are harrington (65 now which isn't that high but he has been consistent here and that recent 61 showed signs of him being almost back), cauley who keeps showing his face in the top 10 (60 betfair) and stenson who is back to some good form and can get away with a few wild shots here perhaps (50 means people have already got on to him)


so, picks for this week are >

ELS > will give him another go as he has paid out nicely recently each way and top 10, in great form and needs the win for an entry into augusta - needs to be confident and sink some putts but good value at 34
WAGNER > this guy keeps the odd win coming so no problem if he is in contention, as a previous winner here he has to have the confidence and as he is currently flying and leading the fedex pts etc, no reason not to back the tache - 34
HANSON > could be a great price for the always under-rated swede here; in good solid form as always and can win.. price should be nearer 35 or so not 55 so I'm happy to go with him here
STANLEY > another winner this year already and have to love the way he came back the week after taking 8 on the 18th and blowing a 3 shot lead - aggressive and should enjoy this week, could give this a good run at 55
last pick was really down to the difference between stricker at 18 or bradley at 20 and I will favour my usual in SS - has the game, the ability to notch loads of birdies, stats are great and the course should be ideal... consistently good here and has to be on the list basically so STRICKER it is


thus, expecting a top 10 of these 5 plus probably westy, bjorn, cauley, pod and baddeley


top 10 bets > after great success with these in the past fortnight when I started looking at them, prices look worth taking for cauley 5.8, wagner 4.6 and hanson 5.6


trading > estes likes this course so perhaps 500 on him early doors, 350 for jason bohn and 530 for greg owen too... couples at 150 looks tight but in great form and has done well here with a couple of top 5s in recent years

AFL > aussie rules doncha know...

AFL is the aussies rules game (australian football league) or 'footy' as it's called down under

much better game than it may seem at first and in some aussie cities, it's the biggest sport by a long way

anyway - it does throw up some great opportunities and the handicaps can sometimes be generous so there will be plenty of good bets to be had in the next 6 months

started at the weekend with the debut of the GIANTS (greater western sydney) and there initial game versus sydney swans was the curtain-raiser for the season... the bookies had them at about 1.9 on the handicap of +90.5pts which seemed fair given previous debut teams' performances.. this looked worth taking to me as I tweeted and the giants duly managed to hold sydney swans to under 70pts and thus the bet paid out handsomely

I will stick up my bets each week for all the games and see how we get on - obviously highlighting any really good value prices

trading the footie at 2-0

trading the footie when a game is 2-0... or 3-1.. or 4-2 even!

have watched the over-reaction of the market when a game goes from a 1 goal lead to a 2 goal margin and noticed there is plenty of room for making a good profit IF the losing team gets the next goal...

the price depends on the teams, the time left and so on but usually the market changes drastically as they think the team 2 down have no chance of getting the win > now this may well be true but it's the price movement we are working with here..

if the losing team get the next goal, the market swings back as dramatically which gives a great chance to trade out of your position and guarantee a profit

here is the thread post I put on OLBG a while back regarding this >

"just back a team that's just gone probably 2 goals behind and the price to back has shot up

example being spurs last wk > price went up to 80 as soon as arsenal went 2-0 up > didn't seem any way back for a poor spurs at HT but worth a punt based on the price

as soon as spurs scored, the price dropped back to about 6 > easy trading situation there (price subsequently went lower as spurs drew level and then odds-on when they went 3-2 up but can ignore those situations as just backing the original 2 goal price change)

so, back 10pts at 80 > possible profit 790, loss 10pts (stake)

price contracts after the goal to 6, Lay for 133.33pts > profit is now 123.33pts so a huge return whatever the outcome of the match - a terrific greening up scenario

> granted you need to get the bets on and hope for the market to form again before another goal etc

> this will often be a lost stake but if the return is big then you can afford a few losses - there are also other permutations or you could increase the stake and then hope for a really big return

you could always keep a bit running and in this case (spurs winning 3-2) the return would have been excellent

there are quite a few occasions where one team goes 2 up and the price increases a lot (more so when the big teams are leading of course) but any situation where the price is big enough it can warrant a back bet in the hope of the losing team notching next"

 last week saw another corker with qpr being 2-0 down to liverpool with not too much of the game remaining - their price was 750! backing this in the hope of the next goal being qpr's would have paid well as their price dropped hugely


not only that but they scored again as it happens so anyone staying in would have been laughing


and they went on to win 3-2 which is a rare turnaround but massively profitable obviously!


the main point here though is trading out after the losing team score the next goal > ie 2-0 becomes 2-1 and you take advantage of the big change in price from a team being anything from 8.0 to 80 or even 800 occasionally


the above example of qpr is rare price-wise but you can often get 80 as a price to back - if that next goal goes in it becomes 2-1 then the price may well drop to say 8.0 so you can trade (lay) and make a big profit (10 times stake basically)


thus >>


when a team goes 2-0 up, back the losing side at a big price


if losing team score next, trade out and make a decent profit


simple enough and worth tracking as it can reward well for little risk - you could equally lay the winning team once they are 2-0 up and then back them if it becomes 2-1


I'll try and check this but it's hard to back-track this sort of data - also needs to be live games in-running of course

trophee hassan (euro tour)

quick mention of my picks for the euro tour although I don't record these on here (shame as I had 40/1 winner quiros on one of my only previous posts for this tour!)

Matteo MANASSERO > backed him last wk and he was pipped to the win by a longshot, can happen - track should suit his accurate game and no reason not to back him again as he is class > 15 win bet (Betfair)

Ed MOLINARI > injury doubts aside this guy should be a much lower price (wish he was at bay hill this wk as would have backed him bigtime at a huge price) > 24th and 11th last 2 tourneys and coming nicely into form perhaps, twice a tour winner and so long as he keeps it on the fairway then he should feature for sure...big back for me this week as if he hits form then he will be hard to beat and I love the price > 44 on Betfair

Rhys DAVIES > won this event in 2010 on a different course and was 2nd here last yr at this venue - great event form and undoubtedly will be confident and capable of going well again here, 55 Betfair looks big

Robert ROCK > should have gained a lot of confidence from hi swin earlier this season and his trip to the US - odds just enough to tempt me as he may have stepped up to a new level now and thus will expect to do well here, 27 Betfair

Raphael JACQUELIN > one bad round last yr stopped him in his tracks and he was in prime form then for a few weeks - twice a tour winner and may be boosted by countryman quesne's win last wk - decent value at 55 here (Betfair) 

arnold palmer invitational (bay hill)

off to Bay Hill, Orlando this week for the ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL - a popular event and a decent field assembled for it too

this event used to be pretty much owned by tiger but things have changed a bit in the last couple of years eh? tiger is back here this year along with the in-form justin rose and big phil but there are plenty of others including the new kids on the block who are looking to take over and establish themselves as consistent tour winners rather than 'flash in the pans'

at least we have a tricky course for a change although I thought that last week and promptly watched pod shoot a 61

two weeks to go until the masters so good chance for some to sharpen their games up a bit and a chance for others to nick a tour win whilst the focus may be starting to concentrate on AUGUSTA

having backed rose for the past 3 weeks I am inclined to leave him this week although he plays ok here and has the game to do well being the sort of course that requires good ball-striking (don't they all?) and the ability to find these greens in set numbers

tiger apparently played ok at lake nona this week and seems to be fit and healthy but there are doubts of course; perhaps he will find his range on the greens and make his price look generous indeed - that would also affect the masters prices too of course as a tiger win here would really move the market out to longer odds 

this event/course usually requires experience over youthful enthusiasm and as such, ELS and FURYK both appear on the radar after their recent good efforts; if ernie had the confidence to sink a few he would be off the back of a win last week - his tee to green game is really impressive

GARCIA is another who is in good form and having picked up a couple of wins last yr he may well be in the mood to take a big tour win again but I have some doubts so will avoid him although he may well be a good back to lay or top 10 bet - popular no doubt but no value for me with his demons still in there I feel, much better value in some of the others in the market

TIGER has an awesome record here and is game is looking excellent bar his putting - he seems to be lagging putts well but is mis-reading too many from middle-distance - it may well click or else we are looking at someone who will never be as good as he was which means he may well win again but he won't be as dominant.. thus, the big question is what price is value with him? having seen him shoot that 62 recently and checking his record overall in the stuttering past 2 years, I think he is still likely to win and often and probably just needs to get some confidence on the greens and ensure his caddie is not hindering him in reading them

MICKO is having a good season but is not a great fan of this course judging by his results - he may well be happy to fine tune with Augusta in mind so I wouldn't be too keen on backing him here

have updated my rankings for this event and they are as follows >

my ranking / name / points

2 woods 14.67

7 rose 20.33

9 haas 21.67

10 simpson 23.67

11 watney 24.00

12 watson 24.33

13 mickelson 25.50

14 garcia26.83

15 mahan 27.00

17 choi 29.67

20 van pelt 30.83

> these reflect the form, ranking, previous event perf, etc etc and these are the players here this week of course

* the value here is woods as he is -6 to my combined current ranking v official world ranking

 haas, watney and van pelt also show up as value bets this week according to the rankings 

* further down my rankings, els comes up as value this week and overton and o'hair show quite positively too

> next I check the odds to see if there is real value ie the actual price is good compared with what my rankings expect - tiger looks to be reasonably good value here due to his record and his form etc but obviously there is a big question mark over him still; top 5 is likely but not much value

rose may have had his 3 week spell and be slightly off the boil although this course is another good one for him

haas is going great guns and worth looking at, watney is due an upturn as he is close (odds lengthening on him nicely)

simpson is still impressing with consistency but not quite doing enough yet perhaps

ok, here are this week's picks >

bubba WATSON > last time out a fortnight ago he probably should have won (lost the playoff) and was well placed in this here last yr too.. as he also tops the rankings in distance off the tee and GIR then you really have to expect a good performance here from bubba; might not be the best at holding a lead but he can shoot low and could well be in the mix on sunday and thus worth backing at 28 betfair

bo VAN PELT > has managed to make the cut each time he has played (7) and thus looks to be worth backing when bearing in mind his recent form; under the radar indeed and probably enjoying it accordingly 34 betfair is low perhaps but van pelt has finished top 10 in his last 4 strokeplay events and that is after finishing last season well with top 10s at both the deutsche and tour championships, followed by a win in malaysia at the asia pacific classic - he is ranked 3rd in strokes gained putting, 3rd in birdies, 4th allround and 5th in total driving on this year's tour too - impressive indeed and shows his current improved performance

ernie ELS > toss-up between him and furyk but the way he played tee to green last week and the fact he needs a result to qualify for the masters means ernie may well be worth getting behind here this week - tempted to lay if he does well so perhaps not an ideal fixed odds bet but the big easy is on the up game-wise and having won here twice he gets the nod, 44 betfair

zach JOHNSON > backed him last wk and worth another go here as he has a decent record and obviously the experience - game could suit too as the course rewards all players if they play sensibly, 50 betfair looks generous but understandable - really think he should step up again soon and want to be on him if so

final pick really is a toss-up between mahan, watney and simpson > odds-wise watney takes this although form-wise it should be mahan then simpson! WATNEY is close I feel and could improve here; 4th here 3 years ago and has good GIR stats - too good a player to be away from the sunday fun for long and worth a dabble at 40 (probably regret this as mahan or simpson do the biz!)

trading > nibbles at mcgirt 430, ishikawa and palmer both 230, love 240, stroud 170

top 10 market > bubba 3.2, garcia 3.8 els 5.2 interest me

bodugi > win £1,000!

good to see a fellow tipster/blogger win the big £1000 on bodugi yesterday!

great site where you can have a punt on horse meetings or football matches etc and try to win the pot and just for a small stake too

stick a fiver in and go for the smaller pots that may pay £50 or so or try for the jackpots like MarcOwenBanks (MOB) did yesterday when his 40/1 last gasp winner notched him the big payout!!!

have a look!

MOB's blog and his £1000 win!!!

transitions championship

staying in florida this week and the TRANSITIONS Championship at copperhead golf course at innisbrook - a tough course for a change and less chance of daft 61s flying around although doral was supposed to be a challenge last week and didn't prove too tricky with 62s etc...

should be a good event however and off the back of last week's winning tip there are a few who look like lively contenders this week

for once, the top of the market looks justifiably strong and you would be sensible to back the likes of donald, rose, schwartz etc but they rarely if ever do come in 1-2-3-4 of course so need to look for some value elsewhere

the course is reasonably long but not a problem for these lads; tight however and with the rough likely to be reasonably penal, accuracy off the tee is obviously vital - hitting these greens is important too though so immediately you are thinking of the neat accurate players like donald rose choi etc...

woodland last yr was surprisingly a winner as although he is good he is a bomber and unlikely to benefit here but he did putt amazingly well!

ok, picks this week are >

brandt SNEDEKER > watched him birdie a string of consecutive holes on the back 9 on sunday and as he had food poisoning in the first round then perhaps he could have played better than it turned out - this course obviously suits and with a win already this yr he coudl be the first to win twice on tour in 2012 > looks to be a solid bet and at the 48 price on betfair I'm jumping in... the sort of player who seems to do well at certain times or especially on certain courses and that recent win will have really helped his confidence in closing out tourneys - if he gets away well then he may be hard to peg back as this isn't the sort of course where people come out of the pack and shoot 63s to win on sundays

justin ROSE > going for the hatrick here as backed him 2 weeks ago as thought he was due to click and make the frame, he duly obliged so I went on him last wk too and also top 10 as looked terrific value - he pipped bubba to make it a great week and as he has purple patches and has a good consistent record here and the course should suit, can't really ignore even at a low 19 betfair

zach JOHNSON > showed signs of improved form recently with top 20 finishes but this event may trigger a much better effort and with a string of tour wins behind him he wont be fazed about being in contention - top 10 at humana and stats also looking good as accurate and scoring average is good... needs to just step it up a bit and this could be the place to do it, 50 is attractive indeed for a proven winner coming into form and with a course to suit

charl SCHWARTZEL > backing him a lot and already pencilled in for the masters where he can 're-peat' I think - in great form and probably still under-ranked as there aren't many who are playing better than him - was a bit wayward last week surprisingly but still made the top 5 and was a good lay for me (and top 10 bet winner) > no reason not to back him despite the skinny odds as if he were 10/1 I would still think he could win.. he may well be in a terrific run of consistent form and be due a poor event but I will kick myself if I dont back him again, 18 betfair

5th pick is a toss up between LAIRD and SENDEN and HANSON > all 3 have a good chance and hanson is the most likely to win out of them as he has the mental strength; laird next and senden whilst having the best stats and being most obvious here, is the one who finds it hardest to get it done - the sort of player who fades when leading, or shoots really low once he is too far back etc... impressive indeed and saw him play some terrific golf down in oz in our summer recently but just can't quite get the wins he probably deserves as he has a great accurate solid game...

LAIRD is my pick of these 3 probably as he is comfortable on this tour now and probably more confident having got a win; hits it long but is also accurate and is in good form, 48 on betfair is very attractive although I might be looking to lay of if he goes well.. will probably watch the other 2 and maybe dabble on them is it looks wise

expecting ishikawa (95) to feature too as his terrific short game should really ensure he scores well here - so adding hanson and senden in to the top10, maybe donald and kuchar to make it in there too

top 10s > snedeker and johnson are both 5.5 currently which isn't bad at all... look solid chances to me

trading > looking at couch at 370, appleby at 380 as longshots for a quick trade if they start well, chalmers at 160 is a stronger trade probably... ishikawa perhaps too at 95

**************

BEST BET > SNEDEKER

Next Best > Z Johnson

wgc cadillac championship

off to Doral in sunny Miami this week for the next part of the Florida swing and the Cadillac Championship; we have a cracking field assembled for what looks to be a very competitive four days of golf and the chance for mcilroy to impress some more, tiger to prove he can putt and plenty of others to remind us all that they are still in the mix too

the weather tends to play a fair part in this as if it blows then the scores will rapidly rise and course management (or damage limitation) will be paramount - a few pleasant balmy days and there should be a chance for some low numbers and those finding the greens and having a hot week with the flat stick will obviously prosper

the course is long at nearly 7,300 yards but that isn't a major problem for those shorter off the tee; placement will matter more and finding those reasonably large greens in the right spot will be the requirement here... there will be plenty of long putt sunk but getting close enough to give yourself a decent chance of birdies really will make a difference

mcilroy was impressive last week for sure but I'm ticking him off this week as it's hard enough to win one let alone two on the trot in this sort of company - his consistency is superb and fair play to the lad if he does win again but those odds don't interest me as they barely cover my 5 usual punts

tiger is close to getting back to his sort of level, ok he won't reach his previous peaks and there are plenty who believe they can beat him these days so that makes a difference but he was hitting the ball really well when he played down under a couple of months back and it seems as if he will be giving himself plenty of chances to shoot low as his swing looks solid and sure - there has been a lot of talk about his putting but I'd be wary of writing him off yet; all it takes is a few 8-10 footers dropping and his confidence in reading the greens will improve and then he may be shooting 65s again regularly

it's a brave man who can confidently say he isn't back and for those who think his game has gone, look at his results - not bad and just because he isn't winning every week doesn't mean he isn't going to win again very soon

what makes this week so mouth-watering is the fact that there are so many top players looking good and seeming to be in prime form - people like stricker are in good nick yet don't seem to be mentioned with all the fuss about tiger and rory

westy is playing consistently well, mickelson has just won one and been beaten in a playoff next, haas has followed up his fedex heroics with another win, DJ is in form with couple of good finishes, mahan has just won the matchplay and kaymer, watney, bradley, donald etc are hardly on a downward spiral 

anyway, I'm going to go with the following picks as I think this week might be tough for rory to manage and he may be slightly off the boil; tiger looks a solid top 10 for me and probably top 5 but at sub 8.0 I'm not jumping on him yet.. this is an event where florida based players and those who like bermuda grass usually do really well but I think the main factor here is the quality of the field and the fact that it will be unlikely that one of the (so-many good) leading contenders does not win

dustin JOHNSON > 29 on betfair is just enough to get to back him based on good recent form, his effort here last yr when he did so well and the fact he admits he is almost there with his game; a few putts dropping and some luck and he could get back to winning ways; also seems to do well at certain courses

charl SCHWARTZEL > in form and was 5th last week so no reason not to stick with backing him and see how he does, 26 is just good enough odds-wise - honda effort included rank 1 in GIR and pretty accurate too, sinks a few and he wins for me... 3.05 for top 10 looks decent

steve STRICKER > 50 betfair tempts me as the guy has really developed into a consistent winner in latter years; needs to step up and win a major or few big events but if the weather is good and scores are low he may really shoot low and get in there and take this

justin ROSE > not someone I often back but had an inkling for him to find his form last week and do well and he managed just that which could be a springboard for him to click and get his game back up to near the level it was at when he started winning on this tour- - probably a better top 10 bet than each way > 65 betfair or 5.3 for a top 10

I fancy these 4 to go well here and will probably have tiger in the top 5 too - also think scott, villegas, fran molinari, haas and possibly byrd may make the top 10 although westy micko kaymer and co will no doubt be likely to do just that

trading > expect a decent show from some of these as their odds look interesting and should make good trades..

mark WILSON at 160, COLSAERTS at 230, LARRAZABAL at 620, BYRD 230 and ROCK 260

best bet > SCHWARTZEL

outrights > DJ, Stricker

top 10 > Rose, Schwartzel

best trade > Byrd 230