example of golf trading

Trading Example

had some requests for info on how to trade the golf so will run through an example and hopefully this will be of some help...

just using 1 player for now..

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ok...player A

* price is 200 and you back for 20pts

Betfair screen will show 3980.00 under his name (use the what if? option) and -20.00 under all other golfers

this means you have a potential profit of 3980pts if he wins (green) and a loss of 20pts (red) if he loses (ie any other player wins)

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* he plays well and price drops to 50

now you can Lay him for various amounts depending on how you want to go...

1/ Lay him for 20pts so clearing your stake - you now have a free bet as you have balanced your staking

if he wins, you would now win 3000pts > this is 3980 from the back bet above less your Lay bet of 980pts (20pts @ 49.0 = 980pt liability)

your screen will show 3000.00 under player A ingreen and 0.00 in green under all other players

so you have no loss risk and still have a big potential win on player A

2/ you could Lay him for 40pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 40pts so you are effectively 20pts in profit on your staking

if he wins, you would now win 2020pts > this is the original 3980pts back bet less your Lay bet of 1960pts (40pts @ 49.0 = 1960pt liability)

your screen would show 2020.00 in green under player A and 20.00 in green on all other players

so you have a green screen meaning profit on any result; a big win on player A still and small return on any other player

3/ you could Lay him for 70pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 70 making a profit on staking of 50pts

if he wins, you would now win 550pts > this is the original 3980pts back less your Lay bet of 3430pts (70pts @ 49.0 = 3430 liability)

your screen would show 550.00 under player A and 50.00 under all other players

so you have a green screen with profit on all outcomes; a decent win on player A and nice return on all other players

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* this is if price drops to 50 which is 4 times less - if the price then dropped to say 20 you have a 'tenfold' drop.. these are obviously great as your options are the same but you can use bigger amounts

eg price of 20 to Lay now... assuming you didn't Lay off at 50, you can Lay for 200pts now and have a 180pt profit on any outcome at all

> your original 200pt back was 3980pts profit and your Lay now of 200pts @ 19.0 = 3800pt liability, so 3980 less 3800 = 180pt profit on your player A

> and your original 20pt back less your new 200pt Lay = 180pt profit on any other player

> ideal situation as you have a good profit (9 times your original stake!) whatever the result

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* if the price drops more and down to say 5 then you are laughing as you can Lay for 800pts and have a green screen of 780pts on any result

> this is your 3980pt original back profit, less your new 3200pt Lay bet liability (800 @ 4.0 = 3200pts)

you now have a very good profit on any result (39 times your original stake)

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this is an example of how you can avoid losing your stake, or make a profit on all outcomes - the levels depend on the prices and how much you Lay for

simple rules are >

* practice it until you know what you are doing

* use stakes you can afford to lose (ie your bank for the event) so there is no pressure or need to recoup meaning daft decisions

* decide if you want to make small profits all-round or have free bets and potential big profit on one player

* be flexible and assess all the relevant factors - don't get drawn into a fixed price to hit

>> and hopefully you will pick the right players and trade them to make good profits... this builds the bank up and then you can either use bigger stakes or select more players

golf trading tips (part 2)

When to back or lay?

With regard to setting a price target for trading >

* It depends on many factors so I don't really have a price in mind or a target, I look at various factors and decide accordingly... and then maybe Lay it all off for a free bet or green screen or whatever

Factors are >

what stage of the tourney is it?
what stake did I use?
how is he playing so far?
how is the course playing/weather forecast?
what is the score in relation to others?
does he have a chance of winning?
is he a good finisher or a weekend blowout type?
is his score good or bad compared with his play quality?

and so on...

Reasoning behind these points is as follows >

what stage of the tourney is it?

This makes a big difference on Betfair obviously - if it's round 1 and the player is a big outsider then the price will drop but not to low figures unless he has gone 4 clear etc - eg yesterday I got barnes at 500 and 510 (average 505) and he shot a 66 which was 2 behind the leader; very well placed and his price has dropped to 75 to Lay.. now that is instant small profit if I want it... being this early in the tourney tho' there is a likelihood that he will start over par in rd2 and price will fly up again

Thus, bearing in mind other factors, I would be thinking of laying this off a lot if not all as it's early in the event - if it was rd 3 then the price would be considerably lower and I would run more of it if not all

(some people think if you punt at big odds and they do well then why not run the whole lot and try and win big but that's fixed odds punting rather than trading and I think smaller regular profit is more sensible)

Example would be Palmer when he won - I backed him at 390 and he shot 65 opening day to lead, price dropped but only to 30 I think.. then he hung around the top of the board so he dropped to 8 or so by weekend, then he still played well and was up there so dropped to about 3.75 by final round as by then he had a very clear chance of winning - 18 holes to mess up rather than say 54 so price reflected that - he was no different scorewise to the field really from day 1 to 3 but the time left and potential win had changed drastically

what stake did I use?

If you use a very small stake then it's probably not worth trading too much - if you use a considerable stake then you have more options - I constantly strive to build the bank up so I can use a %age of it with no worries if I lose - this then means bigger stakes so you have more worthwhile options

eg £2 at 200 and price drops to 20 you aren't going to be hugely in profit laying off, but if it was £20 at 200 and the price drops to 20 then you could Lay off for £200 and have a £180 profit on any result or alternatively Lay for £100 and have a big potential profit on that player (£2080) and a nice £80 on everyone else

how is he playing so far?

Has he chipped in 3 times and sunk some 50-foot putts or is he playing really well and looking capable of going low again, that kind of thing

course/weather forecast?

Look at who else is due to play and when ie late starters in the day, has the wind died down, is it forecast for wind the next day, what are tee times, is the course drying out, are the greens getting roughened up etc all things that may affect certain players due to their type of shot or ability in certain conditions etc

score in relation to others?

If the fav is 4 shots clear then the Betfair price on your outsider just wont come down, it will climb... the winning likelihood is reduced massively... if there are a lot of players within a few shots then equally it's hard to get the price lower - if the field is strung out and some others at the top are lowly ranked then the price may well drop significantly as the market will view the winning chance as much higher

chance of winning?

Some players can win tournaments, Palmer I mentioned I backed because he has a record of winning occasionally from nowhere..others haven't - this doesn't mean they won't win but the chance is what I assess - I would rather back a player at 400 who has a win on his CV as this may mean a quicker drop in price if he plays well as the market realises the chance of a win is maybe higher than a maiden at 400

This also depends on whether I Lay on a sunday morning - if a player is in contention but I don't rate him winning then I will Lay and accept it if he wins... some though have the winning touch and I will probably run those

good finisher or weekend blowout?

As above really - some players see the winning line and choke, some go for it... some are excellent tournament starters but can't hold on for 4 rounds.. all to do with mental strength really and affects my Lay decision

good or bad score?

As above to how is he playing - is the score relatively good, or early in the day, or did he play averagely but perhaps get lucky with an eagle or two - was it a 'quality round' means did he hit a lot of GIR and have tap-ins or did he have some luck

I assess the field scores and hole scores quickly and see if it was a career best or just a good day at work - this means is there more in the tank and should I keep the bet open

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>> This may sound a lot but it is a fairly methodical way of assessing quickly the value of the price... I do like a price to drop by ten times ie 100 down to 10 or 400 down to 40 - this gives me ample room for profit all round and still keeping a big potential on the original bet

If I get lucky (Palmer at 390 winning) then I cash in all the way.. laying off regularly when the price is low and guaranteeing decent profit all round

If I have a decent start with someone who I'm not so confident with then I trade and accept I may be blowing a bigger win - this can work with short prices too ie a player may be 10 so I may back him to Lay at 5... simple and not too tricky if he is the sort to often trade lower than starting price

Someone like Quiros I will probably trade back and forth as he is more likely to go to 80 then back to 15!

So, in summary, there is no fixed price or target - I assess and react accordingly due to a number of factors.. looking for a few or even one of my trades each event to be a good 'un and to cover everything else - and then big wins come along to make life better 

trading the footie at 2-0

trading the footie when a game is 2-0... or 3-1.. or 4-2 even!

have watched the over-reaction of the market when a game goes from a 1 goal lead to a 2 goal margin and noticed there is plenty of room for making a good profit IF the losing team gets the next goal...

the price depends on the teams, the time left and so on but usually the market changes drastically as they think the team 2 down have no chance of getting the win > now this may well be true but it's the price movement we are working with here..

if the losing team get the next goal, the market swings back as dramatically which gives a great chance to trade out of your position and guarantee a profit

here is the thread post I put on OLBG a while back regarding this >

"just back a team that's just gone probably 2 goals behind and the price to back has shot up

example being spurs last wk > price went up to 80 as soon as arsenal went 2-0 up > didn't seem any way back for a poor spurs at HT but worth a punt based on the price

as soon as spurs scored, the price dropped back to about 6 > easy trading situation there (price subsequently went lower as spurs drew level and then odds-on when they went 3-2 up but can ignore those situations as just backing the original 2 goal price change)

so, back 10pts at 80 > possible profit 790, loss 10pts (stake)

price contracts after the goal to 6, Lay for 133.33pts > profit is now 123.33pts so a huge return whatever the outcome of the match - a terrific greening up scenario

> granted you need to get the bets on and hope for the market to form again before another goal etc

> this will often be a lost stake but if the return is big then you can afford a few losses - there are also other permutations or you could increase the stake and then hope for a really big return

you could always keep a bit running and in this case (spurs winning 3-2) the return would have been excellent

there are quite a few occasions where one team goes 2 up and the price increases a lot (more so when the big teams are leading of course) but any situation where the price is big enough it can warrant a back bet in the hope of the losing team notching next"

 last week saw another corker with qpr being 2-0 down to liverpool with not too much of the game remaining - their price was 750! backing this in the hope of the next goal being qpr's would have paid well as their price dropped hugely


not only that but they scored again as it happens so anyone staying in would have been laughing


and they went on to win 3-2 which is a rare turnaround but massively profitable obviously!


the main point here though is trading out after the losing team score the next goal > ie 2-0 becomes 2-1 and you take advantage of the big change in price from a team being anything from 8.0 to 80 or even 800 occasionally


the above example of qpr is rare price-wise but you can often get 80 as a price to back - if that next goal goes in it becomes 2-1 then the price may well drop to say 8.0 so you can trade (lay) and make a big profit (10 times stake basically)


thus >>


when a team goes 2-0 up, back the losing side at a big price


if losing team score next, trade out and make a decent profit


simple enough and worth tracking as it can reward well for little risk - you could equally lay the winning team once they are 2-0 up and then back them if it becomes 2-1


I'll try and check this but it's hard to back-track this sort of data - also needs to be live games in-running of course