transitions championship

staying in florida this week and the TRANSITIONS Championship at copperhead golf course at innisbrook - a tough course for a change and less chance of daft 61s flying around although doral was supposed to be a challenge last week and didn't prove too tricky with 62s etc...

should be a good event however and off the back of last week's winning tip there are a few who look like lively contenders this week

for once, the top of the market looks justifiably strong and you would be sensible to back the likes of donald, rose, schwartz etc but they rarely if ever do come in 1-2-3-4 of course so need to look for some value elsewhere

the course is reasonably long but not a problem for these lads; tight however and with the rough likely to be reasonably penal, accuracy off the tee is obviously vital - hitting these greens is important too though so immediately you are thinking of the neat accurate players like donald rose choi etc...

woodland last yr was surprisingly a winner as although he is good he is a bomber and unlikely to benefit here but he did putt amazingly well!

ok, picks this week are >

brandt SNEDEKER > watched him birdie a string of consecutive holes on the back 9 on sunday and as he had food poisoning in the first round then perhaps he could have played better than it turned out - this course obviously suits and with a win already this yr he coudl be the first to win twice on tour in 2012 > looks to be a solid bet and at the 48 price on betfair I'm jumping in... the sort of player who seems to do well at certain times or especially on certain courses and that recent win will have really helped his confidence in closing out tourneys - if he gets away well then he may be hard to peg back as this isn't the sort of course where people come out of the pack and shoot 63s to win on sundays

justin ROSE > going for the hatrick here as backed him 2 weeks ago as thought he was due to click and make the frame, he duly obliged so I went on him last wk too and also top 10 as looked terrific value - he pipped bubba to make it a great week and as he has purple patches and has a good consistent record here and the course should suit, can't really ignore even at a low 19 betfair

zach JOHNSON > showed signs of improved form recently with top 20 finishes but this event may trigger a much better effort and with a string of tour wins behind him he wont be fazed about being in contention - top 10 at humana and stats also looking good as accurate and scoring average is good... needs to just step it up a bit and this could be the place to do it, 50 is attractive indeed for a proven winner coming into form and with a course to suit

charl SCHWARTZEL > backing him a lot and already pencilled in for the masters where he can 're-peat' I think - in great form and probably still under-ranked as there aren't many who are playing better than him - was a bit wayward last week surprisingly but still made the top 5 and was a good lay for me (and top 10 bet winner) > no reason not to back him despite the skinny odds as if he were 10/1 I would still think he could win.. he may well be in a terrific run of consistent form and be due a poor event but I will kick myself if I dont back him again, 18 betfair

5th pick is a toss up between LAIRD and SENDEN and HANSON > all 3 have a good chance and hanson is the most likely to win out of them as he has the mental strength; laird next and senden whilst having the best stats and being most obvious here, is the one who finds it hardest to get it done - the sort of player who fades when leading, or shoots really low once he is too far back etc... impressive indeed and saw him play some terrific golf down in oz in our summer recently but just can't quite get the wins he probably deserves as he has a great accurate solid game...

LAIRD is my pick of these 3 probably as he is comfortable on this tour now and probably more confident having got a win; hits it long but is also accurate and is in good form, 48 on betfair is very attractive although I might be looking to lay of if he goes well.. will probably watch the other 2 and maybe dabble on them is it looks wise

expecting ishikawa (95) to feature too as his terrific short game should really ensure he scores well here - so adding hanson and senden in to the top10, maybe donald and kuchar to make it in there too

top 10s > snedeker and johnson are both 5.5 currently which isn't bad at all... look solid chances to me

trading > looking at couch at 370, appleby at 380 as longshots for a quick trade if they start well, chalmers at 160 is a stronger trade probably... ishikawa perhaps too at 95

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BEST BET > SNEDEKER

Next Best > Z Johnson

wgc cadillac championship

off to Doral in sunny Miami this week for the next part of the Florida swing and the Cadillac Championship; we have a cracking field assembled for what looks to be a very competitive four days of golf and the chance for mcilroy to impress some more, tiger to prove he can putt and plenty of others to remind us all that they are still in the mix too

the weather tends to play a fair part in this as if it blows then the scores will rapidly rise and course management (or damage limitation) will be paramount - a few pleasant balmy days and there should be a chance for some low numbers and those finding the greens and having a hot week with the flat stick will obviously prosper

the course is long at nearly 7,300 yards but that isn't a major problem for those shorter off the tee; placement will matter more and finding those reasonably large greens in the right spot will be the requirement here... there will be plenty of long putt sunk but getting close enough to give yourself a decent chance of birdies really will make a difference

mcilroy was impressive last week for sure but I'm ticking him off this week as it's hard enough to win one let alone two on the trot in this sort of company - his consistency is superb and fair play to the lad if he does win again but those odds don't interest me as they barely cover my 5 usual punts

tiger is close to getting back to his sort of level, ok he won't reach his previous peaks and there are plenty who believe they can beat him these days so that makes a difference but he was hitting the ball really well when he played down under a couple of months back and it seems as if he will be giving himself plenty of chances to shoot low as his swing looks solid and sure - there has been a lot of talk about his putting but I'd be wary of writing him off yet; all it takes is a few 8-10 footers dropping and his confidence in reading the greens will improve and then he may be shooting 65s again regularly

it's a brave man who can confidently say he isn't back and for those who think his game has gone, look at his results - not bad and just because he isn't winning every week doesn't mean he isn't going to win again very soon

what makes this week so mouth-watering is the fact that there are so many top players looking good and seeming to be in prime form - people like stricker are in good nick yet don't seem to be mentioned with all the fuss about tiger and rory

westy is playing consistently well, mickelson has just won one and been beaten in a playoff next, haas has followed up his fedex heroics with another win, DJ is in form with couple of good finishes, mahan has just won the matchplay and kaymer, watney, bradley, donald etc are hardly on a downward spiral 

anyway, I'm going to go with the following picks as I think this week might be tough for rory to manage and he may be slightly off the boil; tiger looks a solid top 10 for me and probably top 5 but at sub 8.0 I'm not jumping on him yet.. this is an event where florida based players and those who like bermuda grass usually do really well but I think the main factor here is the quality of the field and the fact that it will be unlikely that one of the (so-many good) leading contenders does not win

dustin JOHNSON > 29 on betfair is just enough to get to back him based on good recent form, his effort here last yr when he did so well and the fact he admits he is almost there with his game; a few putts dropping and some luck and he could get back to winning ways; also seems to do well at certain courses

charl SCHWARTZEL > in form and was 5th last week so no reason not to stick with backing him and see how he does, 26 is just good enough odds-wise - honda effort included rank 1 in GIR and pretty accurate too, sinks a few and he wins for me... 3.05 for top 10 looks decent

steve STRICKER > 50 betfair tempts me as the guy has really developed into a consistent winner in latter years; needs to step up and win a major or few big events but if the weather is good and scores are low he may really shoot low and get in there and take this

justin ROSE > not someone I often back but had an inkling for him to find his form last week and do well and he managed just that which could be a springboard for him to click and get his game back up to near the level it was at when he started winning on this tour- - probably a better top 10 bet than each way > 65 betfair or 5.3 for a top 10

I fancy these 4 to go well here and will probably have tiger in the top 5 too - also think scott, villegas, fran molinari, haas and possibly byrd may make the top 10 although westy micko kaymer and co will no doubt be likely to do just that

trading > expect a decent show from some of these as their odds look interesting and should make good trades..

mark WILSON at 160, COLSAERTS at 230, LARRAZABAL at 620, BYRD 230 and ROCK 260

best bet > SCHWARTZEL

outrights > DJ, Stricker

top 10 > Rose, Schwartzel

best trade > Byrd 230