arnold palmer invitational (bay hill)

off to Bay Hill, Orlando this week for the ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL - a popular event and a decent field assembled for it too

this event used to be pretty much owned by tiger but things have changed a bit in the last couple of years eh? tiger is back here this year along with the in-form justin rose and big phil but there are plenty of others including the new kids on the block who are looking to take over and establish themselves as consistent tour winners rather than 'flash in the pans'

at least we have a tricky course for a change although I thought that last week and promptly watched pod shoot a 61

two weeks to go until the masters so good chance for some to sharpen their games up a bit and a chance for others to nick a tour win whilst the focus may be starting to concentrate on AUGUSTA

having backed rose for the past 3 weeks I am inclined to leave him this week although he plays ok here and has the game to do well being the sort of course that requires good ball-striking (don't they all?) and the ability to find these greens in set numbers

tiger apparently played ok at lake nona this week and seems to be fit and healthy but there are doubts of course; perhaps he will find his range on the greens and make his price look generous indeed - that would also affect the masters prices too of course as a tiger win here would really move the market out to longer odds 

this event/course usually requires experience over youthful enthusiasm and as such, ELS and FURYK both appear on the radar after their recent good efforts; if ernie had the confidence to sink a few he would be off the back of a win last week - his tee to green game is really impressive

GARCIA is another who is in good form and having picked up a couple of wins last yr he may well be in the mood to take a big tour win again but I have some doubts so will avoid him although he may well be a good back to lay or top 10 bet - popular no doubt but no value for me with his demons still in there I feel, much better value in some of the others in the market

TIGER has an awesome record here and is game is looking excellent bar his putting - he seems to be lagging putts well but is mis-reading too many from middle-distance - it may well click or else we are looking at someone who will never be as good as he was which means he may well win again but he won't be as dominant.. thus, the big question is what price is value with him? having seen him shoot that 62 recently and checking his record overall in the stuttering past 2 years, I think he is still likely to win and often and probably just needs to get some confidence on the greens and ensure his caddie is not hindering him in reading them

MICKO is having a good season but is not a great fan of this course judging by his results - he may well be happy to fine tune with Augusta in mind so I wouldn't be too keen on backing him here

have updated my rankings for this event and they are as follows >

my ranking / name / points

2 woods 14.67

7 rose 20.33

9 haas 21.67

10 simpson 23.67

11 watney 24.00

12 watson 24.33

13 mickelson 25.50

14 garcia26.83

15 mahan 27.00

17 choi 29.67

20 van pelt 30.83

> these reflect the form, ranking, previous event perf, etc etc and these are the players here this week of course

* the value here is woods as he is -6 to my combined current ranking v official world ranking

 haas, watney and van pelt also show up as value bets this week according to the rankings 

* further down my rankings, els comes up as value this week and overton and o'hair show quite positively too

> next I check the odds to see if there is real value ie the actual price is good compared with what my rankings expect - tiger looks to be reasonably good value here due to his record and his form etc but obviously there is a big question mark over him still; top 5 is likely but not much value

rose may have had his 3 week spell and be slightly off the boil although this course is another good one for him

haas is going great guns and worth looking at, watney is due an upturn as he is close (odds lengthening on him nicely)

simpson is still impressing with consistency but not quite doing enough yet perhaps

ok, here are this week's picks >

bubba WATSON > last time out a fortnight ago he probably should have won (lost the playoff) and was well placed in this here last yr too.. as he also tops the rankings in distance off the tee and GIR then you really have to expect a good performance here from bubba; might not be the best at holding a lead but he can shoot low and could well be in the mix on sunday and thus worth backing at 28 betfair

bo VAN PELT > has managed to make the cut each time he has played (7) and thus looks to be worth backing when bearing in mind his recent form; under the radar indeed and probably enjoying it accordingly 34 betfair is low perhaps but van pelt has finished top 10 in his last 4 strokeplay events and that is after finishing last season well with top 10s at both the deutsche and tour championships, followed by a win in malaysia at the asia pacific classic - he is ranked 3rd in strokes gained putting, 3rd in birdies, 4th allround and 5th in total driving on this year's tour too - impressive indeed and shows his current improved performance

ernie ELS > toss-up between him and furyk but the way he played tee to green last week and the fact he needs a result to qualify for the masters means ernie may well be worth getting behind here this week - tempted to lay if he does well so perhaps not an ideal fixed odds bet but the big easy is on the up game-wise and having won here twice he gets the nod, 44 betfair

zach JOHNSON > backed him last wk and worth another go here as he has a decent record and obviously the experience - game could suit too as the course rewards all players if they play sensibly, 50 betfair looks generous but understandable - really think he should step up again soon and want to be on him if so

final pick really is a toss-up between mahan, watney and simpson > odds-wise watney takes this although form-wise it should be mahan then simpson! WATNEY is close I feel and could improve here; 4th here 3 years ago and has good GIR stats - too good a player to be away from the sunday fun for long and worth a dabble at 40 (probably regret this as mahan or simpson do the biz!)

trading > nibbles at mcgirt 430, ishikawa and palmer both 230, love 240, stroud 170

top 10 market > bubba 3.2, garcia 3.8 els 5.2 interest me

transitions championship

staying in florida this week and the TRANSITIONS Championship at copperhead golf course at innisbrook - a tough course for a change and less chance of daft 61s flying around although doral was supposed to be a challenge last week and didn't prove too tricky with 62s etc...

should be a good event however and off the back of last week's winning tip there are a few who look like lively contenders this week

for once, the top of the market looks justifiably strong and you would be sensible to back the likes of donald, rose, schwartz etc but they rarely if ever do come in 1-2-3-4 of course so need to look for some value elsewhere

the course is reasonably long but not a problem for these lads; tight however and with the rough likely to be reasonably penal, accuracy off the tee is obviously vital - hitting these greens is important too though so immediately you are thinking of the neat accurate players like donald rose choi etc...

woodland last yr was surprisingly a winner as although he is good he is a bomber and unlikely to benefit here but he did putt amazingly well!

ok, picks this week are >

brandt SNEDEKER > watched him birdie a string of consecutive holes on the back 9 on sunday and as he had food poisoning in the first round then perhaps he could have played better than it turned out - this course obviously suits and with a win already this yr he coudl be the first to win twice on tour in 2012 > looks to be a solid bet and at the 48 price on betfair I'm jumping in... the sort of player who seems to do well at certain times or especially on certain courses and that recent win will have really helped his confidence in closing out tourneys - if he gets away well then he may be hard to peg back as this isn't the sort of course where people come out of the pack and shoot 63s to win on sundays

justin ROSE > going for the hatrick here as backed him 2 weeks ago as thought he was due to click and make the frame, he duly obliged so I went on him last wk too and also top 10 as looked terrific value - he pipped bubba to make it a great week and as he has purple patches and has a good consistent record here and the course should suit, can't really ignore even at a low 19 betfair

zach JOHNSON > showed signs of improved form recently with top 20 finishes but this event may trigger a much better effort and with a string of tour wins behind him he wont be fazed about being in contention - top 10 at humana and stats also looking good as accurate and scoring average is good... needs to just step it up a bit and this could be the place to do it, 50 is attractive indeed for a proven winner coming into form and with a course to suit

charl SCHWARTZEL > backing him a lot and already pencilled in for the masters where he can 're-peat' I think - in great form and probably still under-ranked as there aren't many who are playing better than him - was a bit wayward last week surprisingly but still made the top 5 and was a good lay for me (and top 10 bet winner) > no reason not to back him despite the skinny odds as if he were 10/1 I would still think he could win.. he may well be in a terrific run of consistent form and be due a poor event but I will kick myself if I dont back him again, 18 betfair

5th pick is a toss up between LAIRD and SENDEN and HANSON > all 3 have a good chance and hanson is the most likely to win out of them as he has the mental strength; laird next and senden whilst having the best stats and being most obvious here, is the one who finds it hardest to get it done - the sort of player who fades when leading, or shoots really low once he is too far back etc... impressive indeed and saw him play some terrific golf down in oz in our summer recently but just can't quite get the wins he probably deserves as he has a great accurate solid game...

LAIRD is my pick of these 3 probably as he is comfortable on this tour now and probably more confident having got a win; hits it long but is also accurate and is in good form, 48 on betfair is very attractive although I might be looking to lay of if he goes well.. will probably watch the other 2 and maybe dabble on them is it looks wise

expecting ishikawa (95) to feature too as his terrific short game should really ensure he scores well here - so adding hanson and senden in to the top10, maybe donald and kuchar to make it in there too

top 10s > snedeker and johnson are both 5.5 currently which isn't bad at all... look solid chances to me

trading > looking at couch at 370, appleby at 380 as longshots for a quick trade if they start well, chalmers at 160 is a stronger trade probably... ishikawa perhaps too at 95

**************

BEST BET > SNEDEKER

Next Best > Z Johnson

mcgladrey classic (us pga tour)

the fall series continues this week with the McGLADREY CLASSIC in georgia - a par 70 course at 7000 or so yards which isn't the toughest but you have to stick it in the right place so it should suit the shorter neater players and this is where most of the focus is this week

plenty of tour pros live here so will be a local event for a few of them - usually makes them perform a shot or two better with local knowledge and some good fan backing

quite a few playing for their cards obviously and I like some of the recent efforts of a few players where they have sneaked into the top 10 or shot a really low one

so...

adam HADWIN > young canadian has featured in the top 10 recently a couple of times and looks a useful player - likewise, compatriot McQUILLAN has been in the top 10 a couple of times in recent events too so worth a look

McKENZIE & BERTSCH both showed some form last week and both need to move up the rankings a bit to get their cards sorted so can expect them to be worth a back to lay perhaps

bud CAULEY looks to be a very good prospect too and he's another worth checking although odds already look a bit too low (shows the regard people have for him however)

regarding potential winners, CASEY warmed up well last wk which was on the back of a win in Asia so he may be a decent bet here, 38 is enough for me (betfair); there's a few who fit the bill and have ties locally in some way so SNEDEKER and ZACH J look likely to feature so will back both of those...

Sneds can be a pain as usually plays poorly when I back him so let's break that run.. 28 betfair; as for Zach, it would be amiss not to go for the local resident who usually manages to find a win at some point when playing consistently well.. hasn't got one yet this yr on main tour so this could be good timing -12th here last yr and not bad value at 27 betfair

C HOWELL and ALLENBY will presumably play fairly well also and might be worth a few dollars but perhaps KIRK at 65 is better value than Howell.. also looking at Hunter HAAS at 140 and HADWIN at 180 as decent shouts

might dabble on some of these if they look in good nick.. will probably start with Casey, Johnson, Sneds, Haas and Hadwin and keep an eye on Allenby, Kirk and co

trading > will go with Mackenzie at 260, Bertsch at 250, Stankowski has shown a bit recently and 450 isn't bad - looking to lay these guys if they go well initially