updated performance...

Haven't updated this blog for a while as I have been on SBB but here is a quick update on my tipping on the OLBG betting site

Masters Golf < I managed to win that competition courtesy of Scott, my main bet, winning the green Jacket and also Leishman making the frame; I tipped him each way at 400/1

I also tipped McDowell the week after the Masters and he duly won on the US Tour so that helped me go top of the overall Golf Tipsters competition too!

And I managed to find a few horse winners too amongst others which helped my overall LSP for APRIL on the OLBG Tipster Competition > I hit +120pts or so which is currently (28 Apr) ranked 1st!

Not bad out of 4 or 5,000 even if I say so myself :-)

open championship golf challenge

off to Lytham this week for the OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP

click here for the free golf challenge on OLBG where you can win CASH!

OPEN GOLF CHALLENGE

zurich classic

off to louisiana this week for the tricky ZURICH CLASSIC, a tough test for a change for these lads as this course is long and has fairly tricky greens too; the rough isn't too bad though so still good chances for some low scoring but hopefully a truer test of decent ball-strikers and good putters

the prices don't really attract however and thus not much interest although there are a few who catch my eye at half-decent odds.. looking more to trade this week as good chance of some performances from triple-figure players perhaps

tentaive picks (ie small stakes probably!) >

peter HANSON > 55 is big enough for the perenially under-rated swede; in good form for a while and obviously put up a good effort at the masters - hopefully the jaunt to china won't affect him too much and he can do well here as his game is in good shape (on at 55 yesterday but 50 now)

hunter HAAS > could be a good longshot if he manages to avoid the killer 77s he often finds.. back into a bit of form and played ok here last year,  not a bad putter from long distance which should help here too - decent at 180 b/f (on at 180 although 150 or so now)

ernie ELS > 60 again looks decent for the big easy who may be relaxed again after his pursuit of a masters place - has been playing well and could be due a further good spell as has the long game for sure

last 2 pics are tentative as not too sure about them.. PIERCY at 100 is possible as he has the ability I feel and backed him last wk when he got close with a 65 but not close enough (dropped from 80 to 40 mid tourney), CHALMERS at 75 may not be long but has done well here and has a great neat game / also in better form and more confident after a good aussie summer

had thoughts about Crane (70) and Palmer (100) but will leave them for now

> not going with as big stakes as usual as this tournament has a real unknown feel about it and I will look daft when the top 5 is full of those at the top of the market probably! but happy with these mentioned above and definitely looking for good trades this week

trading > these all attract me for various reasons so will be looking for them to start well and provide some profit or a free bet at least

lamely 800 hunch bet purely! (now 870)
adams 450 always catches my eye and this price is big (down to 350 now)
mathis 310 off the back of a good effort last week (out to 380 now)
taylor 300 hunch bet and did well couple of wks back for me (230 now)
couch 450 should go well if he gets his (usually) good putting back on song (340 now)

* prices altered on b/f as I drafted this article yesterday

ballantine's championship (euro tour)

quick post about this week's BALLANTINE'S Championship in Korea - this is a superb course and should be a tough test - there looks to be some standout prices here although such a hard tour to call usually

not interested in scott at his price and couple near the top of the market are no value... expect a decent show from the korean players but the odds take that into account maybe too much already

anyway,

McGRANE > 80 is generous indeed for mcgrane who should enjoy this course and also any inclement weather as that massive victory in the storms a few yrs ago in this part of the world lingers on; finding some good form and expect him to go well - would back him at near half this price so happy indeed with 80 (13th here last yr)

DERKSEN > 85 on b/f and that's good enough for this guy who seems to really enjoy playing in asia and often appears from nowhere to do well - top 20 last wk and good chance at highish odds here, 13th here last yr also

FISHER > 90 on b/f looks interesting; not sure what his plans are as he didnt play much at all until the masters which was strange but still played ok there - his great tee to green game should mean he finds enough birdie opps here as it's a tough course for anyone wayward; risky bet as bit of unknown factor with so little golf be he was a consistently good player a couple of yrs back and may be worth a dabble - MC last wk with 71/72 but good warm-up for this one perhaps

DUBUISSON > young french lad hits it long and is in good form with an excellent consistent effort last wk (all four rounds in the 60s), has potential to be a decent player indeed and if he can continue that good run then he is worth an interest this wk at 55

final pick was between Kruger, Lowry, Noren, Coetzee and Olesen all of whom I have backed in recent times - might watch them all and see if I can get better price early in the event

trading-wise > expecting a good home show so have dabbled on j-k mo, s-h park, s-s hong, d-h kim all at around 3-400 and looking for quick drop and out

 

valero texas open

brief picks from me for this week's less than stellar event in texas... weak field and very open so plenty who could nick a maiden win here or surprise at decent odds - hard to call so smallish stakes this week... course is long and has undulating greens so no real bias at all other than for length and someone in form who can get it close enough to have a few birdie attempts - anyone short or wayward will consistently be relying on their short game to save par which is hard to do over 4 days

picks are >

PALMER > 40 isn't great for someone not in good form but have always liked Ryan Palmer as he can find a win from nowhere every now and again (3 tour wins 04 08 and 10, similar to kuchar who has 3 tour wins!) - texan lad so will presumably show up well as he has in the past in his home state; played ok at houston recently and being a good mid range putter he could find some form here and get in amongst them, happy to be on a proven winner at 40 

PIERCY > should do well on this course, won at reno-tahoe last yr which is similar so that bodes well, played well at houston and was 5th in the transitions, good long putter which will help here - decent shout at 80 

WALKER > local lad as lives here so no idea how often he may have plaed this track but should do better than usual with all the home town support - has had 3 top 10s already this yr but I'm wary that he did the same last yr before fading so hope he can maintain the form a bit longer this time > 55 Betfair is enough to tempt 

STADLER > in excellent recent form with 3 top 10s in last 4 events played, needs to improve like this or become a journeyman - overdue being in contention on a sunday and hope that recent run will continue here - good putter too, 50 on Betfair 

had few thoughts about Huh, Wagner and even Delaet (course suits but out of form) - WAGNER may get some interest from me as he is a proven winner and born in texas (another with 3 career wins) 

us masters

US MASTERS 2012

5th-8th APRIL - the 76th running of this spectacular and popular major

Course > Augusta National, par 72 and 7,435 yards.. It is an undulating course so you can get a lot of run on some holes and you don’t need to be a long hitter to do well. You do however need to have a great short game as good approaches can often end up off the green and the greens are tricky to say the least – fast with plenty of subtle borrows and swales

In the past few years the scores have been higher generally with not so many golfers breaking par by the Sunday night (Tiger's fault for shooting 270 in 1997!) although last year it played relatively easily with -14 being the winning score

A few yrs ago, Augusta was capable of being tamed but now there are less 'easy' holes where birdies are fairly common, and many more holes where you are thankful to get a part; I've watched the Masters for over 30yrs and the winner is not so much whoever has the game for the course (ie those who draw the ball not fade used to succeed more, plus the big hitters used to dominate it as it was so open) but more whoever is playing at the top of their form

You have to drive well and putt well obviously but also stay positive and ignore the inevitable bogey - play the sensible shot when it matters and not go for broke on the par5s unless you are hitting it really well; the 15th always offers eagle opportunity but plenty have found the water short and suffered a 6 or more..  likewise the 13th is tempting but sometimes you get as many birdies by those laying up as those who go for the green in two

Scoring > you have to expect 8-10 bogeys over the wk probably for the winner - could be higher but that's the usual mark ie take your medicine and accept a couple of bogeys a round. Birdies are available of course; the most has been 25 by Mickelson which is some going. A lot of players will be looking to shoot around par ie 3 birdies and 3 bogeys perhaps and take a good round if it's there, you don't normally get too many 65s here; anyone who sprays it around will no doubt have to have an immense short game to escape with decent scores

Also depends a bit on the weather of course but more so on the green speed and the pin placements - the greens will be their usual speed probably and the pin placements are the main defence that the course has - all the usual spots with sunday being the hardest as always (bar the 16th where there is a decent chance of an ace)

Odds > all on betfair

Woods 5.8 > can you back against him?
McIlroy 7.0 > meltdown will be forgotten with a win, skinny price though
Mickelson 14 > hard to back against with his record and form
Donald 17 > great chance with terrific short game
Westwood 21 > overdue
Rose 34 > maybe just past his hot spell, good 1st round leader bet!
Mahan 36 popular after winning this wk but hard to go back to back let alone win this
Scott 38 > flatters to deceive
Day 42 > great debut last yr but not much form to warrant this price
Schwartzel 46 > on the drift which is good news as great chance of a repeat
Bradley > 40 > inform but debutants never win here!
Watson 55 > length but suspect under pressure


field > 60 and above... some great value in there especially for trading

* the beauty of having an inform duo at the top of the market is that it pushes the prices out for everyone else - there are some terrific players at 70 or 80 or 100 who could easily win this... Mickelson with his record and form this yr should really be a 7/1 shot but he's 13/1 here due to the Tiger & 'boy wonder' prices

Last Year (2011) >

 
1 Schwartzel -14

2 Day -12

3 Scott -12

4 Woods -10

4 Ogilvy -10

4 Donald -10

7 Cabrera -9

8 Van Pelt -8

8 Choi -8

10 Palmer -6

Since 2000 (last 11 Yrs) > Top 10 finishes

9 - Mickelson
8 - Tiger
6 - VJ
5 - Els
4 - Goosen

* stunning record of big Phil and Tiger has to be respected here as they are amazingly consistent for a tour event let alone a major

The Field > being a major you would expect to see an unusual name up near the top of the leaderboard on day 1 (Justin Rose has however managed to be top after 1st round 3 times) but they usually fade and by Sunday the bigger names appear – definitely a case of ‘you can’t win it on Thursday & Friday but you can lose it’ – last year saw Couples & Tom Watson at the top after day 1 though so the evergreen pros still do well here – this isn’t a course/event for debutants to flourish in 


Look for > Current form and good previous history here definitely helps, debutants often struggle as do those who just can’t seem to get it going here; for some reason, there are a few with average at best records (Kaymer for example) but it is of course a major tourney with the world’s best players so you would expect the cream to rise to the top

Those who can putt well from distance and also 5-6 feet as you will get a lot of those par-saver distances here

GIR is more important here than accuracy or distance off the tee – you can’t keep missing greens and expect to keep getting up and down so those who do well will be probably top 5 in this stat

Experience counts – it will be unusual for a non tour winner to succeed here; you will probably have a champion who has won many times on tour and/or majors 


Woods > 7 years have elapsed since he donned the green jacket; could be time for him to notch another major as it seems to be almost inevitable in some ways - the win a fortnight ago certainly pushed a lot of doubters back towards backing him and his price consequently firmed up a lot - whether 5/1 is worth taking is another matter as this isn't an ordinary tour event. Tiger is no ordinary player though so with his confidence on the greens back, his superb tee to green game and his experience, hard to go against him eh? unless someone else has an absolute blinder or gets very lucky I expect him to shoot 68-69 average and -14 or so may be hard to beat > not sure whether I will back him at 5/1 unless I go in with big stakes but I may just trade him as a separate entity to all my other bets (I often trade Tiger back and forth as it is quite easy to read the market moves with him)


Donald > a player I used to rarely back as he didn't have the killer instinct, steady and solid bu tnot doing enough when it mattered - he has really stepped up a level or two obviously and is the deserved world no 1 although doesn't get the credit he should as he is not a media darling - terrific short game and such a reliable putter these days and that is to his benefit here; can see him working his way through the field and probably being the steadiest on Sunday and notching birdies late on whilst others fall away under the pressure.. could well be a duel between him and Tiger which is the world no 1 against the 'soon to be' world no 1 again perhaps > will be taking Luke at about 17


so that's 2 of the top 3 in the betting - won't go for Mickelson although he looks to be a solid bet with a win this year, great form this week and his amazing record here too - if anyone is going to walk this tournament it could be him but there is also always that doubt with Phil that he may suddenly lose his way or miss some daft short putts


I'm leaving Rory and Westy as both are more than capable but I have the odd doubt - Rory will win more majors for sure but it might take him a while to get settled enough again to do so - Westy is a nearly man like Monty these days - should have won one by now and has been so close but cant quite seem to get it done in the majors


Rose has had his hot spell recently where he hit form and played courses he likes - he loves this one too and has a knack of leading after round 1 (3 times!) but may have gone off the boil slightly now. Day played extremely well last year in the majors and was so close here too but hasn't really done much in recent months and is probably having a quiet year before re-surfacing on the scene in a big way as he has the ability for sure. Scott is a good player and will benefit from having Steve Williams on his bag but doesn't look quite strong enough currently against a field of this quality and current form


Schwartzel was an early pick of mine for this a month or so back - his form has drifted in the last few weeks with 2 missed cuts on this tour after a string of top 5s etc > whether this is him tweaking before his defence of this trophy we don't know but he should still put up a spirited effort - those 2 missed cuts are unusual though and maybe a sign of him going off the boil - his odds have drifted accordingly from 38 to about 46 now


Bradley is making his debut here and that's not a reason to back any golfer here - he has the ability and the form but it is a big ask to come here and win at the first go although it isn't impossible - will have plenty of supporters though and 40/1 isn't too bad but just looks skinny compared with some others


Bubba is a decent price if going by stats is the way - his length and GIR record should mean plenty of birdie opps but always a doubt over his temperament and ability to withstand the extreme pressure on a Sunday


So on to the others >


Van Pelt > in great form, stats are good, had some good finishes already this season so should be full of confidence and was top 10 here last year > perhaps unlikely to win but could go really well at a good price and looks a reasonably good shout for the top 10 too > 130 betfair


Ed Molinari > great player and has the game for this course - has returned from injury and played well recently so is warming up nicely for this - should go on to do better than his more heralded brother - price is 450 which I'm all over as a good start should see that fall nicely so a good trading opportunity if nothing else.. great value for a classy player, 11th last year after an opening 74


Simpson > odds of 80 make this a more tempting bet than the 40 on bradley - simpson has been a bit under the radar and as a debutant you wouldn't expect much but he has the ability and can putt well especially from mid to long range - might be a quiet one that sneaks through and suddenly appears on Sunday in the top 5


Bill Haas > super popular young man who has really proven to have what it takes - has already won tournaments and the fedex cup (in style!) and wouldn't surprise me if he found his form here and put in a great showing - 120 is tempting as he has had a rest before this event; played ok last yr here but struggled on the 13th, will have learned a bit and should improve on that 42nd place


Stanley > unlikely to do well as young and confident and on debut here which is normally a recipe for disaster! but this guy has stacks of ability - hits it long and hits greens and makes birdies - should score well on the par5s and may just enjoy this - not sure he will last so maybe a back to lay bet but worth taking on at 150 on potential! will probably miss too many short putts but a bit of luck may help


Oosthuizen > 90 is attractive for Oosty who should really benefit from last week's effort - just missed out on the win but playing well and that should give him the necessary boost - if he clicks he will make that price look daft


Choi > always worth a passing interest in the super steady unflappable KJ - played well here in recent years of course and will know what to do and no doubt plod around happily although it won't show... steady and popular and 75 is about right - not in great form so not a definite back


* there are plenty of others too such as Stricker, Poulter, DJ and so on... 


Old Boys > you often get a few previous winners having good rounds here and reminding us former glories - expect good showings from Couples, Immelman and Cabrera with the latter being a decent bet for this tourney at 100 as he likes it here and has the record and recent form too




SELECTIONS > narrowing these down to who could win or who is a possible winner makes this easier - there are plenty of good bets on paper but will some of them WIN? there are certain players you expect to come through on Sunday afternoon and others who will fall away


Tiger WOODS > 5.8 is high enough as the script seems written to me - he has the form and confidence and obviously the ability and experience - must have had doubts in his own mind but consolidating his lead and strolling to victory recently will have surely given that last bit of the jigsaw as he looks to establish himself back at the top and notch more majors; any edge that may have gone of fhis game looks to have been replaced by a super solid swing and a desire to prove a few critics wrong since his 'problems'


Luke DONALD > maybe the most likely to push Tiger or win in his own right - seems slightly miffed still by the lack of respect for his ranking and would probably love to win this to prove his point > 17.5 gets my money


Louis OOSTHUIZEN > the good showing at Houston is likely to give him the impetus to do well and when he plays well he can be really good - odds have tightened but 90 is still attractive for a major winner in form


Charl SCHWARTZEL > despite a couple of missed cuts I'm not deserting the defending champ as he can turn it on and often players have done well here year on year - has the ability and obviously confidence being the title holder; was extremely consistent worldwide until those last 2 events but perhaps his eye was off the ball and he was saving his efforts for this week here - drifted to 46 which is good, should be a good top 10 bet unless his game has really gone off the boil


Bo VAN PELT > you often get someone who don't expect lurking in the top 5 at the weekend and Bo looks the one for me - excellent form with 4 top 10s in last 4 strokeplay events, had a brief rest too; was 8th here last yr (previous visit was 2005) - stats this yr are superb and no1 ranked in total putting and strokes gained... looks a decent shout at good odds and will be backing him for top 10 too > 130 betfair


* these will be my 5 picks this week - will also look to trade a few and have some top 10 bets as well as they have been really profitable in the last few weeks since I started looking at them


will keep an eye on Haas, Simpson and Stanley as all good players who could flourish and in the 80-150 price range - all possible top 10 bets for me too


Trading > 


Ed Molinari huge at 450 and if he gets off to a good start then that should come down nicely, great longshot for me as mentioned above


Moore looks big at 320 (good record here and decent amount of top 10s, big blowout last wk though, dropped 11 shots in 6 holes on way to an 85)


Ishikawa at 380 (terrific short game will really help compensate his lack of distance and experience)


Palmer at 300 (multiple tour winner and always one I look for at big odds, capable of going really well)

us masters golf challenge

US MASTERS time again and OLBG have their usual GOLF CHALLENGE

free to enter and you could win cash and free bets

see this link for details >

MASTERS GOLF CHALLENGE

simple competition but it's tough to win!

and, to join OLBG with no obligation and have a chance to win some of the £3,000 per month that OLBG reward us with, click here >

FREE TIPSTER COMPETITION

good luck folks

trophee hassan (euro tour)

quick mention of my picks for the euro tour although I don't record these on here (shame as I had 40/1 winner quiros on one of my only previous posts for this tour!)

Matteo MANASSERO > backed him last wk and he was pipped to the win by a longshot, can happen - track should suit his accurate game and no reason not to back him again as he is class > 15 win bet (Betfair)

Ed MOLINARI > injury doubts aside this guy should be a much lower price (wish he was at bay hill this wk as would have backed him bigtime at a huge price) > 24th and 11th last 2 tourneys and coming nicely into form perhaps, twice a tour winner and so long as he keeps it on the fairway then he should feature for sure...big back for me this week as if he hits form then he will be hard to beat and I love the price > 44 on Betfair

Rhys DAVIES > won this event in 2010 on a different course and was 2nd here last yr at this venue - great event form and undoubtedly will be confident and capable of going well again here, 55 Betfair looks big

Robert ROCK > should have gained a lot of confidence from hi swin earlier this season and his trip to the US - odds just enough to tempt me as he may have stepped up to a new level now and thus will expect to do well here, 27 Betfair

Raphael JACQUELIN > one bad round last yr stopped him in his tracks and he was in prime form then for a few weeks - twice a tour winner and may be boosted by countryman quesne's win last wk - decent value at 55 here (Betfair) 

arnold palmer invitational (bay hill)

off to Bay Hill, Orlando this week for the ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL - a popular event and a decent field assembled for it too

this event used to be pretty much owned by tiger but things have changed a bit in the last couple of years eh? tiger is back here this year along with the in-form justin rose and big phil but there are plenty of others including the new kids on the block who are looking to take over and establish themselves as consistent tour winners rather than 'flash in the pans'

at least we have a tricky course for a change although I thought that last week and promptly watched pod shoot a 61

two weeks to go until the masters so good chance for some to sharpen their games up a bit and a chance for others to nick a tour win whilst the focus may be starting to concentrate on AUGUSTA

having backed rose for the past 3 weeks I am inclined to leave him this week although he plays ok here and has the game to do well being the sort of course that requires good ball-striking (don't they all?) and the ability to find these greens in set numbers

tiger apparently played ok at lake nona this week and seems to be fit and healthy but there are doubts of course; perhaps he will find his range on the greens and make his price look generous indeed - that would also affect the masters prices too of course as a tiger win here would really move the market out to longer odds 

this event/course usually requires experience over youthful enthusiasm and as such, ELS and FURYK both appear on the radar after their recent good efforts; if ernie had the confidence to sink a few he would be off the back of a win last week - his tee to green game is really impressive

GARCIA is another who is in good form and having picked up a couple of wins last yr he may well be in the mood to take a big tour win again but I have some doubts so will avoid him although he may well be a good back to lay or top 10 bet - popular no doubt but no value for me with his demons still in there I feel, much better value in some of the others in the market

TIGER has an awesome record here and is game is looking excellent bar his putting - he seems to be lagging putts well but is mis-reading too many from middle-distance - it may well click or else we are looking at someone who will never be as good as he was which means he may well win again but he won't be as dominant.. thus, the big question is what price is value with him? having seen him shoot that 62 recently and checking his record overall in the stuttering past 2 years, I think he is still likely to win and often and probably just needs to get some confidence on the greens and ensure his caddie is not hindering him in reading them

MICKO is having a good season but is not a great fan of this course judging by his results - he may well be happy to fine tune with Augusta in mind so I wouldn't be too keen on backing him here

have updated my rankings for this event and they are as follows >

my ranking / name / points

2 woods 14.67

7 rose 20.33

9 haas 21.67

10 simpson 23.67

11 watney 24.00

12 watson 24.33

13 mickelson 25.50

14 garcia26.83

15 mahan 27.00

17 choi 29.67

20 van pelt 30.83

> these reflect the form, ranking, previous event perf, etc etc and these are the players here this week of course

* the value here is woods as he is -6 to my combined current ranking v official world ranking

 haas, watney and van pelt also show up as value bets this week according to the rankings 

* further down my rankings, els comes up as value this week and overton and o'hair show quite positively too

> next I check the odds to see if there is real value ie the actual price is good compared with what my rankings expect - tiger looks to be reasonably good value here due to his record and his form etc but obviously there is a big question mark over him still; top 5 is likely but not much value

rose may have had his 3 week spell and be slightly off the boil although this course is another good one for him

haas is going great guns and worth looking at, watney is due an upturn as he is close (odds lengthening on him nicely)

simpson is still impressing with consistency but not quite doing enough yet perhaps

ok, here are this week's picks >

bubba WATSON > last time out a fortnight ago he probably should have won (lost the playoff) and was well placed in this here last yr too.. as he also tops the rankings in distance off the tee and GIR then you really have to expect a good performance here from bubba; might not be the best at holding a lead but he can shoot low and could well be in the mix on sunday and thus worth backing at 28 betfair

bo VAN PELT > has managed to make the cut each time he has played (7) and thus looks to be worth backing when bearing in mind his recent form; under the radar indeed and probably enjoying it accordingly 34 betfair is low perhaps but van pelt has finished top 10 in his last 4 strokeplay events and that is after finishing last season well with top 10s at both the deutsche and tour championships, followed by a win in malaysia at the asia pacific classic - he is ranked 3rd in strokes gained putting, 3rd in birdies, 4th allround and 5th in total driving on this year's tour too - impressive indeed and shows his current improved performance

ernie ELS > toss-up between him and furyk but the way he played tee to green last week and the fact he needs a result to qualify for the masters means ernie may well be worth getting behind here this week - tempted to lay if he does well so perhaps not an ideal fixed odds bet but the big easy is on the up game-wise and having won here twice he gets the nod, 44 betfair

zach JOHNSON > backed him last wk and worth another go here as he has a decent record and obviously the experience - game could suit too as the course rewards all players if they play sensibly, 50 betfair looks generous but understandable - really think he should step up again soon and want to be on him if so

final pick really is a toss-up between mahan, watney and simpson > odds-wise watney takes this although form-wise it should be mahan then simpson! WATNEY is close I feel and could improve here; 4th here 3 years ago and has good GIR stats - too good a player to be away from the sunday fun for long and worth a dabble at 40 (probably regret this as mahan or simpson do the biz!)

trading > nibbles at mcgirt 430, ishikawa and palmer both 230, love 240, stroud 170

top 10 market > bubba 3.2, garcia 3.8 els 5.2 interest me

transitions championship

staying in florida this week and the TRANSITIONS Championship at copperhead golf course at innisbrook - a tough course for a change and less chance of daft 61s flying around although doral was supposed to be a challenge last week and didn't prove too tricky with 62s etc...

should be a good event however and off the back of last week's winning tip there are a few who look like lively contenders this week

for once, the top of the market looks justifiably strong and you would be sensible to back the likes of donald, rose, schwartz etc but they rarely if ever do come in 1-2-3-4 of course so need to look for some value elsewhere

the course is reasonably long but not a problem for these lads; tight however and with the rough likely to be reasonably penal, accuracy off the tee is obviously vital - hitting these greens is important too though so immediately you are thinking of the neat accurate players like donald rose choi etc...

woodland last yr was surprisingly a winner as although he is good he is a bomber and unlikely to benefit here but he did putt amazingly well!

ok, picks this week are >

brandt SNEDEKER > watched him birdie a string of consecutive holes on the back 9 on sunday and as he had food poisoning in the first round then perhaps he could have played better than it turned out - this course obviously suits and with a win already this yr he coudl be the first to win twice on tour in 2012 > looks to be a solid bet and at the 48 price on betfair I'm jumping in... the sort of player who seems to do well at certain times or especially on certain courses and that recent win will have really helped his confidence in closing out tourneys - if he gets away well then he may be hard to peg back as this isn't the sort of course where people come out of the pack and shoot 63s to win on sundays

justin ROSE > going for the hatrick here as backed him 2 weeks ago as thought he was due to click and make the frame, he duly obliged so I went on him last wk too and also top 10 as looked terrific value - he pipped bubba to make it a great week and as he has purple patches and has a good consistent record here and the course should suit, can't really ignore even at a low 19 betfair

zach JOHNSON > showed signs of improved form recently with top 20 finishes but this event may trigger a much better effort and with a string of tour wins behind him he wont be fazed about being in contention - top 10 at humana and stats also looking good as accurate and scoring average is good... needs to just step it up a bit and this could be the place to do it, 50 is attractive indeed for a proven winner coming into form and with a course to suit

charl SCHWARTZEL > backing him a lot and already pencilled in for the masters where he can 're-peat' I think - in great form and probably still under-ranked as there aren't many who are playing better than him - was a bit wayward last week surprisingly but still made the top 5 and was a good lay for me (and top 10 bet winner) > no reason not to back him despite the skinny odds as if he were 10/1 I would still think he could win.. he may well be in a terrific run of consistent form and be due a poor event but I will kick myself if I dont back him again, 18 betfair

5th pick is a toss up between LAIRD and SENDEN and HANSON > all 3 have a good chance and hanson is the most likely to win out of them as he has the mental strength; laird next and senden whilst having the best stats and being most obvious here, is the one who finds it hardest to get it done - the sort of player who fades when leading, or shoots really low once he is too far back etc... impressive indeed and saw him play some terrific golf down in oz in our summer recently but just can't quite get the wins he probably deserves as he has a great accurate solid game...

LAIRD is my pick of these 3 probably as he is comfortable on this tour now and probably more confident having got a win; hits it long but is also accurate and is in good form, 48 on betfair is very attractive although I might be looking to lay of if he goes well.. will probably watch the other 2 and maybe dabble on them is it looks wise

expecting ishikawa (95) to feature too as his terrific short game should really ensure he scores well here - so adding hanson and senden in to the top10, maybe donald and kuchar to make it in there too

top 10s > snedeker and johnson are both 5.5 currently which isn't bad at all... look solid chances to me

trading > looking at couch at 370, appleby at 380 as longshots for a quick trade if they start well, chalmers at 160 is a stronger trade probably... ishikawa perhaps too at 95

**************

BEST BET > SNEDEKER

Next Best > Z Johnson

wgc cadillac championship

off to Doral in sunny Miami this week for the next part of the Florida swing and the Cadillac Championship; we have a cracking field assembled for what looks to be a very competitive four days of golf and the chance for mcilroy to impress some more, tiger to prove he can putt and plenty of others to remind us all that they are still in the mix too

the weather tends to play a fair part in this as if it blows then the scores will rapidly rise and course management (or damage limitation) will be paramount - a few pleasant balmy days and there should be a chance for some low numbers and those finding the greens and having a hot week with the flat stick will obviously prosper

the course is long at nearly 7,300 yards but that isn't a major problem for those shorter off the tee; placement will matter more and finding those reasonably large greens in the right spot will be the requirement here... there will be plenty of long putt sunk but getting close enough to give yourself a decent chance of birdies really will make a difference

mcilroy was impressive last week for sure but I'm ticking him off this week as it's hard enough to win one let alone two on the trot in this sort of company - his consistency is superb and fair play to the lad if he does win again but those odds don't interest me as they barely cover my 5 usual punts

tiger is close to getting back to his sort of level, ok he won't reach his previous peaks and there are plenty who believe they can beat him these days so that makes a difference but he was hitting the ball really well when he played down under a couple of months back and it seems as if he will be giving himself plenty of chances to shoot low as his swing looks solid and sure - there has been a lot of talk about his putting but I'd be wary of writing him off yet; all it takes is a few 8-10 footers dropping and his confidence in reading the greens will improve and then he may be shooting 65s again regularly

it's a brave man who can confidently say he isn't back and for those who think his game has gone, look at his results - not bad and just because he isn't winning every week doesn't mean he isn't going to win again very soon

what makes this week so mouth-watering is the fact that there are so many top players looking good and seeming to be in prime form - people like stricker are in good nick yet don't seem to be mentioned with all the fuss about tiger and rory

westy is playing consistently well, mickelson has just won one and been beaten in a playoff next, haas has followed up his fedex heroics with another win, DJ is in form with couple of good finishes, mahan has just won the matchplay and kaymer, watney, bradley, donald etc are hardly on a downward spiral 

anyway, I'm going to go with the following picks as I think this week might be tough for rory to manage and he may be slightly off the boil; tiger looks a solid top 10 for me and probably top 5 but at sub 8.0 I'm not jumping on him yet.. this is an event where florida based players and those who like bermuda grass usually do really well but I think the main factor here is the quality of the field and the fact that it will be unlikely that one of the (so-many good) leading contenders does not win

dustin JOHNSON > 29 on betfair is just enough to get to back him based on good recent form, his effort here last yr when he did so well and the fact he admits he is almost there with his game; a few putts dropping and some luck and he could get back to winning ways; also seems to do well at certain courses

charl SCHWARTZEL > in form and was 5th last week so no reason not to stick with backing him and see how he does, 26 is just good enough odds-wise - honda effort included rank 1 in GIR and pretty accurate too, sinks a few and he wins for me... 3.05 for top 10 looks decent

steve STRICKER > 50 betfair tempts me as the guy has really developed into a consistent winner in latter years; needs to step up and win a major or few big events but if the weather is good and scores are low he may really shoot low and get in there and take this

justin ROSE > not someone I often back but had an inkling for him to find his form last week and do well and he managed just that which could be a springboard for him to click and get his game back up to near the level it was at when he started winning on this tour- - probably a better top 10 bet than each way > 65 betfair or 5.3 for a top 10

I fancy these 4 to go well here and will probably have tiger in the top 5 too - also think scott, villegas, fran molinari, haas and possibly byrd may make the top 10 although westy micko kaymer and co will no doubt be likely to do just that

trading > expect a decent show from some of these as their odds look interesting and should make good trades..

mark WILSON at 160, COLSAERTS at 230, LARRAZABAL at 620, BYRD 230 and ROCK 260

best bet > SCHWARTZEL

outrights > DJ, Stricker

top 10 > Rose, Schwartzel

best trade > Byrd 230

wgc accenture matchplay

accenture world matchplay feb 22-26

a few thoughts on this event; not one of my favoured ones as haven't got a lot of time for these matchplay events but worth looking at a few possibles as it's an open event and chance to get on some decent prices perhaps...

fancy kaymer and baddeley to come through in their bracket and thus am taking badds at his price of 50/1 as much better value - such a good putter and played well last wk should go well again here as lives locally and plays well on the west coast

should be able to get away with spraying it about a bit and thus can get through hopefully and may well spring a surprise.. showed some good bottle down under when under pressure in the presidents cup and those sort of events will stand him in good stead these days - expecting a good season from the rejuvenated aussie

AQ > you can get 100 on alvaro on betfair which is too tempting for me so I have dabbled there already always back quiros as he is my fav golfer and when in contention gives you a great run for your money > he should relish this format and course as he can tame long courses and score so low when on song

birdies and eagles and double bogeys probably but can see him going well and a chance to play tiger possibly looms in this bracket has the ability for sure and if he is in form then he will be tough to play and beat 

dustin johnson looks to be a reasonable tip this week - showed good signs of form last week oviously with a very good finish and said afterwards that there were just a few things to be tinkered with.. not maybe a great comment but shows he thinks he's almost back to winning form perhaps the course should play quite long so expect him to benefit and as he can notch birdies rapidly he should do well in this format

DJ looks to have a reasonable bracket and that could give him confidence to carry it through

ogilvy > going with ogilvy here as he is a terrific match player and if he finds his form should go well may well come up against poults which would be a great match in this format!

ogilvy played well at tail end of last yr and then really well in the aussie events down here... was hitting the ball beautifully and putting well if he can get back to that form then he has a chance and he is one of the toughest to play against for sure

mcilroy is in his bracket but I think he may struggle against coetzee may give him a tough opener - ogilvy for me to come thru and make the semis which means a good 12/1 payout minimum here at 50/1 or so

colsaerts has had a good start to the season and is showing why is he is highly rated by some.. has the ability and a really good game and could go well here at a decent price.. first up is westy so could be a long way for not much but lee john doesnt seem tolike this event or course and wouldnt me a huge surprise if colsaerts sprung a shock as such here then could get past karlsson in my opinion and suddenly is getting into the tourney with a chance to go to the semis as a decent outsider.. 

you often get a higherpriced player make it that far in this so perhaps he's the dark horse this week good value and worth trading on betfair for sure as looks to be one of the more likely upsets early on

summary > dustin johnson, geoff ogilvy, alvaro quiros, nicholas colsaerts all look to be good value to me for backing/trading and the other one for me would be baddeley as better value than kaymer in that bracket although I would expect kaymer to give it a good go this week and perhaps win... could be worth watching if odds lengthen a bit..

some small trades on early matches as I fancy a few at higher prices to sneak through.. ishikawa, hanson, goose, els, byrd etc...

 

sony open

Off to Hawaii this week and the SONY OPEN; quite a different test compared with last week as this course is short and tight and at just over 7,000 yards should bring out the best in the neat, accurate players

Defending champion is Mark Wilson and there are a few here who have very good records in this event > Stricker has a 3rd and two 4ths in last 4 yrs here, C Howell III has a great record and Chad Campbell also does well here

Choi is a previous winner and is in excellent form - also finished last week with a 65 so he will be a popular choice no doubt

Stricker is fav and 8.6 to back isn't bad actually - I'm not tempted but can't knock the chances of last week's winner who has won 8 times in his last 50 starts (12 tour titles in total)


Webb Simpson seems to have started the year well where he left off last and should go well here too but price is a bit too short for me


Jerry Kelly, John Senden and Mark Wilson will probably all have their followers this week

Experience counts for a lot here as the rookies don't tend to fare too well although I will be watching Bud Cauley with interest as he was so impressive in getting his card in no time at all last year


My picks for the Sony are:


KJ CHOI > popular this week as price is just 15 on betfair but looks good enough for me; played well last week and that closing -8 round will give him good confidence for this event - should enjoy the tighter course and small greens and having won this event in '08 there is no reason not to back him really - played well at the tail-end of last yr too and having discovered the winning feeling last yr again after a hiatus, he looks a really solid back this week > 15 on betfair and probably worth a straight win bet on fixed odds


SABBATINI > horses for courses as Rory has twice been runner-up here in recent years and does seem to play well in Hawaii; managed to make the top 10 last week despite a 2 shot penalty for being tardy to the tee in round 2.. currently 38 on betfair and backing him as he does seem to play well on certain courses and is always capable of going really low which may be possible here if the wind drops


TOMS > didn't feature last week unsurprisingly but should come to the fore here as the course plays to his strengths and he has won this before too of course; hope last week was a good warm-up > 44 betfair is tempting enough


Keegan BRADLEY > surprised to see his price so high and after finishing well last week he may go against the grain of older players doing well here > 32 betfair is very tempting


these 4 for me and I would expect to see Stricker, Kelly, Senden, Simpson, Howell and Wilson probably in the Top 10 or not far off - hard to see too many at big prices this week so will stick with my picks