valero texas open

brief picks from me for this week's less than stellar event in texas... weak field and very open so plenty who could nick a maiden win here or surprise at decent odds - hard to call so smallish stakes this week... course is long and has undulating greens so no real bias at all other than for length and someone in form who can get it close enough to have a few birdie attempts - anyone short or wayward will consistently be relying on their short game to save par which is hard to do over 4 days

picks are >

PALMER > 40 isn't great for someone not in good form but have always liked Ryan Palmer as he can find a win from nowhere every now and again (3 tour wins 04 08 and 10, similar to kuchar who has 3 tour wins!) - texan lad so will presumably show up well as he has in the past in his home state; played ok at houston recently and being a good mid range putter he could find some form here and get in amongst them, happy to be on a proven winner at 40 

PIERCY > should do well on this course, won at reno-tahoe last yr which is similar so that bodes well, played well at houston and was 5th in the transitions, good long putter which will help here - decent shout at 80 

WALKER > local lad as lives here so no idea how often he may have plaed this track but should do better than usual with all the home town support - has had 3 top 10s already this yr but I'm wary that he did the same last yr before fading so hope he can maintain the form a bit longer this time > 55 Betfair is enough to tempt 

STADLER > in excellent recent form with 3 top 10s in last 4 events played, needs to improve like this or become a journeyman - overdue being in contention on a sunday and hope that recent run will continue here - good putter too, 50 on Betfair 

had few thoughts about Huh, Wagner and even Delaet (course suits but out of form) - WAGNER may get some interest from me as he is a proven winner and born in texas (another with 3 career wins) 

shell houston open

off to texas this week for the masters curtain-raiser that is the Shell HOUSTON OPEN; a fairly decent event that is a good tune-up for the first major of the season next week... a reasonable field assembled again and on open event as there are plenty of would-be winners as well as a few fancied names who may be not overly concerned with winning this week as they look to sharpen up for augusta

the problem this week is that there are so many potential winners and the prices aren't great as the bulk of the likely victors are in the 20-100 range.. the course is fairly generous insofar as you can spray it about a bit but the rough is reasonably harsh as the scrambling stats show some struggles usually if you miss greens; fairly big greens and although long the course doesn't really favour the bombers - one of those courses that rewards the best player that week - hi tit straight and sink a few putts basically!

anyway, have updated my rankings and after removing those who aren't competing this week we have the following top 15 >

my rank / name / my ranking points 

1	stricker	13.33
3	westwood	14.67
6	schwartzel	17.83
11	mickelson	23.33
13	bradley	26.67
15	mahan	28.17
18	mcdowell	29.67
19	hanson	30.83
32	bjorn	38.33
35	senden	39.83
37	wagner	40.50
41	stanley	41.33
42	els	41.33
44	baddeley	43.17
47	oosthuizen	44.67

> thus I have stricker as the top-rated here slightly ahead of westy with charl and defending champ mickelson next... nothing amazing there obviously

> my rankings show me a value or trend and I skew my ratings towards the event a fair bit - so here stricker is the best bet for the win to me... having a good record here and the sort of course he prospers on means he is better value at 18 than westy or micko at 13/14

my value rankings show HANSON, WAGNER, STANLEY and ELS as all being worthwhile investments this week - I then look at the prices to see if the market is generous or not..

hanson at 55 looks high, wagner has been backed down to 38 which is backable still, stanley is 55 and els 34 which again look ok - these guys look more solid to me than others

westy could and should win but top 5 looks about right; micko won last year with blistering weekend scoring of 63,65 but surely is more concerned with next week.. 
I have backed schwartzel a few times recently but last time out he had a rare blowout, another looking to sharpen up for augusta where he should be a decent bet to retain his green jacket
bradley could enjoy this long course, probably more likely to do well this week rather than next for me.. mahan has already won this year and is always a worth looking at but not for me here although his record is good with regular top 10s interspersed with MCs!, mcdowell  bounced back into form last week but is work in progress for me still


bjorn could go well at a biggish price as he is solid and much better bet than senden who just can't get those putts in when it matters.. badds and oosty are in my top 15 ranked players but neither really appeal for the win here; badds perhaps may prove me wrong but 34 isn't enough to tempt me with others looking stronger for me
at higher prices and further down the rankings are harrington (65 now which isn't that high but he has been consistent here and that recent 61 showed signs of him being almost back), cauley who keeps showing his face in the top 10 (60 betfair) and stenson who is back to some good form and can get away with a few wild shots here perhaps (50 means people have already got on to him)


so, picks for this week are >

ELS > will give him another go as he has paid out nicely recently each way and top 10, in great form and needs the win for an entry into augusta - needs to be confident and sink some putts but good value at 34
WAGNER > this guy keeps the odd win coming so no problem if he is in contention, as a previous winner here he has to have the confidence and as he is currently flying and leading the fedex pts etc, no reason not to back the tache - 34
HANSON > could be a great price for the always under-rated swede here; in good solid form as always and can win.. price should be nearer 35 or so not 55 so I'm happy to go with him here
STANLEY > another winner this year already and have to love the way he came back the week after taking 8 on the 18th and blowing a 3 shot lead - aggressive and should enjoy this week, could give this a good run at 55
last pick was really down to the difference between stricker at 18 or bradley at 20 and I will favour my usual in SS - has the game, the ability to notch loads of birdies, stats are great and the course should be ideal... consistently good here and has to be on the list basically so STRICKER it is


thus, expecting a top 10 of these 5 plus probably westy, bjorn, cauley, pod and baddeley


top 10 bets > after great success with these in the past fortnight when I started looking at them, prices look worth taking for cauley 5.8, wagner 4.6 and hanson 5.6


trading > estes likes this course so perhaps 500 on him early doors, 350 for jason bohn and 530 for greg owen too... couples at 150 looks tight but in great form and has done well here with a couple of top 5s in recent years