uspga championship

off to Kiawah Island and the Ocean Course

for the final major of the season, the USPGA CHAMPIONSHIP which takes place this week..

should be a fabulous test of golf and let's hope that the wind is strong enough to test these guys but not too severe to make it a lottery

this course is long at over 7,600 yards and can play to almost 8,000 if they shift the tees to the furthest point back - the ocean breezes make a massive difference to the required shot here however and there can quite easily be a 4-5 club difference when playing the same shot on different days

fairways shouldn't be too hard to hit here and the greatest asset will probably be iron play into the greens - obviously accuracy will help but playing the right shot at the right time will be paramount; course management is vital and with likely changing breezes from hole to hole then you really need to remain calm and have your wits about you - there have been some course changes over recent years which have mainly been fairly subtle and relate to green fringes and run-offs mainly - the greens are paspalum these days which basically means no grain; most of the players won't be used to this but shouldn't make much difference as they will be cut 'major-speed' low

thus, hitting it a long way and having good GIR stats will help; finding the right spot on the greens will help otherwise there will be plenty of shots rolling off the edges - scrambling will of course be vital as there will be plenty of good shots ending up off the greens being a coastal course - putting as ever needs to be strong as being a major these greens will be quick

expecting the winning score to be around -5 or so.. may be lower if its calm but doubt it will go past -10; if it blows a bit then expect level par to be closer

therefore I'll be looking for players who have a fair bit of experience, preferably having played here before but definitely those with a decent record on these type of courses; great short games and reasonably accurate off the tee although will edge towards the longer hitters probably - great course management is a must

keegan bradley is the defending champ (winning on his major debut!) and has come into some form recently so he will presumably be popular in the market, having a bit harder time of it in his 2nd full tour year but has got great stats an dis no 1 ranked in the all-round category showing that he is playing well without hitting any particular heights - could be worth watching and 66/1 is probably about right

(edit: he won the WGC Bridgestone yesterday so is indeed 'in form'! and his odds have now dropped to 50/1 best fixed and about 43 betfair)

tiger will be the fav as per the old days but there are a fair few others who have the game and experience to do well here
(edit: a solid final round at Bridgestone yesterday for woods and note that his tee to green was really good (3rd in GIR), it was his putter that let him down a bit- still managed another top 10 however)

jason dufner lost in that play-off last year and was 5th the year before and with his consistent performances in recent times will be another popular pick no doubt - twice a winner this year and showing that he can now handle the pressure and compete on a sunday

rory mcilroy likewise has done well in this event and with a decent effort this week will be attracting support - has been hit and miss in recent months so hard to judge whether he will put it all together and impress or fall away; risk with him is he does seem to lose interest if it isn't happening

webb simpson broke through with his US Open win and returns to action this week; being a 'local' he will have the benefit of the fans support - the dad factor may help him as often provides the maturity that some players need (or the lack of sleep that can be worse!)

another local is dustin johnson who has had injury problems for a fair while now - looks to be back on song now though and living locally, he will be well supported and with his length and record he looks a sure-fire back bet to me

donald westwood and scott all have good reasons to be backed as they seek that elusive major win; mickelson is out of form but has come from nowhere before and mcdowell and rose have had good solid seasons too

picks >

dustin JOHNSON > top player and has twice been close to winning a major previously; has returned from injury this season and won the St Jude Fedex event - missed the cut at the US Open but finished 9th at The Open last month - currently going well this week too so is in good nick it seems

has made the cut in 11 of 13 majors which is a good sign; he also has a decent record when in contention - high percentage of wins relative to 2nds and 3rds compared with other players

has won on tour 6 times and once each year for 5 yrs since turning pro in 2007 (matching tiger in that respect)

missed cut in this event last yr but was 5th and 10th prior to that; also has 2 career wins at pebble beach in the AT&T event

thus, he lives locally in myrtle beach, is a consistent winner, knows what to do at the business end of an event, hits it miles, is confident, has been close before to winning a major, etc etc.. all points to what should be a really good week for DJ and perhaps his first major

available at 33/1 and that is very tempting as I would rate him about a 20/1 shot or better (30 betfair)

graeme MCDOWELL > having a stellar season with regard to the majors, finishing 12th at augusta, 2nd in the US Open and 5th in The Open recently - add a 2nd place at the arnold palmer event and he has obviously had a really solid year and seems to have benefited from picking and choosing events; is gearing himself around the majors and could complete a terrific  effort in them with a win here

ranked 2nd for accuracy off the tee he should be able to set himself up nicely to hit his irons in to these greens - again, he is highly ranked for approaches and the only thing probably stopping him winning here would be a few missed shortish putts - if he can get the flat stick working then he should be one of the ones to relish the conditions and won't be hampered by the breezes like some others perhaps

might be a big ask to again feature in a major but I remember him really stepping up a few yrs ago in the ryder cup and you could see him start to believe that he was actually a top player and 

deserved to be competing in the big events; that confidence has made the difference and he can be in the mix on sunday afternoon.. 40/1 fixed / betfair looks decent indeed

matt KUCHAR > having been on tour for 11 yrs or so he really has stepped up in recent years to become a top player - superbly consistent and was in danger of becoming a nearly man almost having peppered his record with top 10s but without winning as many events as he should have until he went and won the players championship this year

that was a big victory and followed a 3rd at augusta - he has since finished 9th at The Open too so is really starting to post good performances in the big events as well as consistently making cuts (22 on the trot); has posted seven top 10s this season and has superb stats too being top ranked for scoring average and par 4 performance and highly ranked in scrambling too which well help this week

chance to notch a major and cement his position as probably the most consistent player around these days, 40/1 (42 betfair) looks too high again and since he lives up the coast at sea island he is definitely worth backing this week too

luke DONALD > usually shy away a bit from the market leaders but being a major you would expect the cream to rise to the crop - of the mcilroy, donald, westwood triumvirate I often pick luke as he is the number 1 player for me in the world - consistent and with such a terrific all-round game

he really needs a major on his CV and quickly or else there will always be that question mark on his record - has come a bit closer in recent times but doesn't do himself justice in the big 4 events really; did manage a 5th in the Open and elsewhere was 6th in the Players and won the Transitions too so another successful campaign for sure but he needs to win a big one - he was 8th last yr at Atlanta Athletic

stats are great - ok, his distance off the tee is relatively poor but he concentrates on being accurate and with his amazingly good short game (probably the best there is for consistency) he will always be knocking on the door - this may not be the best course for him but he is worth backing at 17 betfair as he is probably the best bet of the top 5

final pick is between mahan, bradley, colsaerts and possibly kaymer although the latter's form hasn't been good enough to warrant my money; any of these have a good shout- might have to go with both mahan and colsaerts being a major and 6 places are covered each-way

hunter MAHAN > needs to chip in a couple of times or have a really good week with the putter as that's probably what will stop him doing well here - classy player and great ball-striker - terrific stats with high rankings in accuracy striking etc... has performed well in majors and won both the WGC accenture matchplay and the shell houston open this year so having a great season in that respect> looks reasonable at 45/1 best (47 betfair)

nicolas COLSAERTS > the long-hitting belgian is having another really good yr after improving so much last yr - won the volvo matchplay and has sprinkled top 10s on his record - has done ok when crossing the pond with a 27th in the US Open (76 final round took the shine off a bit)

great 7th in the Open and has really stepped up his game, maybe high enough to challenge here - stats are good and probably just needs to drop under 30putts a round to compete as distance, GIR and scrambling are all really good > available at 80/1 with youwin (60 betfair)

mention for bradley who is obviously peaking nicely with this week's win; would be really hard to win consecutively and to pick up 2 majors in your first 5 attempts would be staggering so probably worth avoiding now and more so as the 66/1 has gone


summary >


I always tend to trade tiger separately as I have mentioned many times before - his game is good but still questions over his consistency// he could play averagely and still be top 10 though such is his ability - if his putter works well and he keeps his solid tee to green game from last week then he will be a contender for sure and the 8/1 looks generous... I will avoid for now but expect a top 10 definitely


DJ looks the one for me so going in on him - to add to the above picks I would have tiger, maybe someone like kyle stanley or aaron baddeley to surprise a bit and make the top 10, and one of my traders to hang around long enough - perhaps pettersson / cabrera-bello / noren.. cab-bello was a good trade for me last week as backed him at 380 and got out at 15 on friday (never confident he would keep going!) - did leave some on him hoping but not to be.. noren is long and can be spectacular, will trade him as he is over 400 now


can also see an old boy somewhere (verplank and toms did well last yr) and john daly may appear up there briefly as he is playing well - da points could be worth watching too as although not in form, this course should suit him

trading >

HAAS > such a likeable bloke, great player too with good all-round game, not been in great form but can find a performance from nowhere - already won this yr after last year's heroics> 100 betfair

PETTERSSON > 5 time tour winner who has the knack of winning from nowhere every now and then, north carolina resident and great putter - might be time to make an appearance in the top 5 or 10 in a major? > 125 betfair

VJ SINGH > the old-timer is in decent nick and may be worth a trade, currently 180 - cant sink the putts these days but he may have a reasonable start and be worth a quick back to lay if he can drop below 100

keeping an eye on the following > Cabrera-Bello 200, Noren 390, Olesen 230, Stallings 300 as all could have good starts and drop a bit although would expect to lay them if they drop sub 100 as doubt they will go too low

edit: stanley at 150 added, pettersson now 160, haas down to 85, VJ out to 190, noren at 410 added and daly at 405 added

top 5 or top 10 bets to follow later on..

wgc cadillac championship

off to Doral in sunny Miami this week for the next part of the Florida swing and the Cadillac Championship; we have a cracking field assembled for what looks to be a very competitive four days of golf and the chance for mcilroy to impress some more, tiger to prove he can putt and plenty of others to remind us all that they are still in the mix too

the weather tends to play a fair part in this as if it blows then the scores will rapidly rise and course management (or damage limitation) will be paramount - a few pleasant balmy days and there should be a chance for some low numbers and those finding the greens and having a hot week with the flat stick will obviously prosper

the course is long at nearly 7,300 yards but that isn't a major problem for those shorter off the tee; placement will matter more and finding those reasonably large greens in the right spot will be the requirement here... there will be plenty of long putt sunk but getting close enough to give yourself a decent chance of birdies really will make a difference

mcilroy was impressive last week for sure but I'm ticking him off this week as it's hard enough to win one let alone two on the trot in this sort of company - his consistency is superb and fair play to the lad if he does win again but those odds don't interest me as they barely cover my 5 usual punts

tiger is close to getting back to his sort of level, ok he won't reach his previous peaks and there are plenty who believe they can beat him these days so that makes a difference but he was hitting the ball really well when he played down under a couple of months back and it seems as if he will be giving himself plenty of chances to shoot low as his swing looks solid and sure - there has been a lot of talk about his putting but I'd be wary of writing him off yet; all it takes is a few 8-10 footers dropping and his confidence in reading the greens will improve and then he may be shooting 65s again regularly

it's a brave man who can confidently say he isn't back and for those who think his game has gone, look at his results - not bad and just because he isn't winning every week doesn't mean he isn't going to win again very soon

what makes this week so mouth-watering is the fact that there are so many top players looking good and seeming to be in prime form - people like stricker are in good nick yet don't seem to be mentioned with all the fuss about tiger and rory

westy is playing consistently well, mickelson has just won one and been beaten in a playoff next, haas has followed up his fedex heroics with another win, DJ is in form with couple of good finishes, mahan has just won the matchplay and kaymer, watney, bradley, donald etc are hardly on a downward spiral 

anyway, I'm going to go with the following picks as I think this week might be tough for rory to manage and he may be slightly off the boil; tiger looks a solid top 10 for me and probably top 5 but at sub 8.0 I'm not jumping on him yet.. this is an event where florida based players and those who like bermuda grass usually do really well but I think the main factor here is the quality of the field and the fact that it will be unlikely that one of the (so-many good) leading contenders does not win

dustin JOHNSON > 29 on betfair is just enough to get to back him based on good recent form, his effort here last yr when he did so well and the fact he admits he is almost there with his game; a few putts dropping and some luck and he could get back to winning ways; also seems to do well at certain courses

charl SCHWARTZEL > in form and was 5th last week so no reason not to stick with backing him and see how he does, 26 is just good enough odds-wise - honda effort included rank 1 in GIR and pretty accurate too, sinks a few and he wins for me... 3.05 for top 10 looks decent

steve STRICKER > 50 betfair tempts me as the guy has really developed into a consistent winner in latter years; needs to step up and win a major or few big events but if the weather is good and scores are low he may really shoot low and get in there and take this

justin ROSE > not someone I often back but had an inkling for him to find his form last week and do well and he managed just that which could be a springboard for him to click and get his game back up to near the level it was at when he started winning on this tour- - probably a better top 10 bet than each way > 65 betfair or 5.3 for a top 10

I fancy these 4 to go well here and will probably have tiger in the top 5 too - also think scott, villegas, fran molinari, haas and possibly byrd may make the top 10 although westy micko kaymer and co will no doubt be likely to do just that

trading > expect a decent show from some of these as their odds look interesting and should make good trades..

mark WILSON at 160, COLSAERTS at 230, LARRAZABAL at 620, BYRD 230 and ROCK 260

best bet > SCHWARTZEL

outrights > DJ, Stricker

top 10 > Rose, Schwartzel

best trade > Byrd 230

wgc accenture matchplay

accenture world matchplay feb 22-26

a few thoughts on this event; not one of my favoured ones as haven't got a lot of time for these matchplay events but worth looking at a few possibles as it's an open event and chance to get on some decent prices perhaps...

fancy kaymer and baddeley to come through in their bracket and thus am taking badds at his price of 50/1 as much better value - such a good putter and played well last wk should go well again here as lives locally and plays well on the west coast

should be able to get away with spraying it about a bit and thus can get through hopefully and may well spring a surprise.. showed some good bottle down under when under pressure in the presidents cup and those sort of events will stand him in good stead these days - expecting a good season from the rejuvenated aussie

AQ > you can get 100 on alvaro on betfair which is too tempting for me so I have dabbled there already always back quiros as he is my fav golfer and when in contention gives you a great run for your money > he should relish this format and course as he can tame long courses and score so low when on song

birdies and eagles and double bogeys probably but can see him going well and a chance to play tiger possibly looms in this bracket has the ability for sure and if he is in form then he will be tough to play and beat 

dustin johnson looks to be a reasonable tip this week - showed good signs of form last week oviously with a very good finish and said afterwards that there were just a few things to be tinkered with.. not maybe a great comment but shows he thinks he's almost back to winning form perhaps the course should play quite long so expect him to benefit and as he can notch birdies rapidly he should do well in this format

DJ looks to have a reasonable bracket and that could give him confidence to carry it through

ogilvy > going with ogilvy here as he is a terrific match player and if he finds his form should go well may well come up against poults which would be a great match in this format!

ogilvy played well at tail end of last yr and then really well in the aussie events down here... was hitting the ball beautifully and putting well if he can get back to that form then he has a chance and he is one of the toughest to play against for sure

mcilroy is in his bracket but I think he may struggle against coetzee may give him a tough opener - ogilvy for me to come thru and make the semis which means a good 12/1 payout minimum here at 50/1 or so

colsaerts has had a good start to the season and is showing why is he is highly rated by some.. has the ability and a really good game and could go well here at a decent price.. first up is westy so could be a long way for not much but lee john doesnt seem tolike this event or course and wouldnt me a huge surprise if colsaerts sprung a shock as such here then could get past karlsson in my opinion and suddenly is getting into the tourney with a chance to go to the semis as a decent outsider.. 

you often get a higherpriced player make it that far in this so perhaps he's the dark horse this week good value and worth trading on betfair for sure as looks to be one of the more likely upsets early on

summary > dustin johnson, geoff ogilvy, alvaro quiros, nicholas colsaerts all look to be good value to me for backing/trading and the other one for me would be baddeley as better value than kaymer in that bracket although I would expect kaymer to give it a good go this week and perhaps win... could be worth watching if odds lengthen a bit..

some small trades on early matches as I fancy a few at higher prices to sneak through.. ishikawa, hanson, goose, els, byrd etc...

 

bmw championship (fedex playoff)

charl schwartzel > masters champion is often still under the radar but has the ability and has had a cracking record in recent times in big events.. more than capable of playing well on tough courses like this and could be timing his form just nicely again... might well want to add some playoff glory to his improving cv

led at halfway in boston and was looking good but may be able to string it together for 4 days here.. tough course will sort some of them out and not a birdiefest like recently too thankfully

can see jason day doing well but isnt getting over the finish line...his time will no doubt come soon -  the main protagonists should all be up there... stricker has gone off the boil so avoiding him for a change and watney is in form despite an awful hole messing him up last time out

villegas I have backed a lot recently but odds have dropped now so not so much value there..sneds too could be in the mix... have gone for a few that may do it this week but any of the field and especially the top 20 in the market could easily win this open event > 36 betfair

jim furyk > available at 30 on betfair and sneaking into some form, almost reminiscent of last yr where he kinda came from nowhere to take the pot of gold...

hasnt done much all year but is looking more solid these days and more like his old self - finished 9th at the wyndham and then 6th last time out so starting to find the top 10 again after a string of mediocre perfs

stats dont say much understandably but hi sgame is built around being unspectacular... plotting his way round and it obviously works well for him to say the least... this should help here of course and if he can sink a few putts then he may make a good move here and be capable of defending his title

has a stellar career record and a terrific record inthese playoffs too.. also has a string of top 10 finishes here so everything is lined up for him to revert to type and grind his way round to a top 5 finish or a surprising win perhaps - 30 betfair

dustin johnson > won this last year and was also a winner a few weeks ago when the playoffs started so not much more needs to be added about his ability other than for a guy who hits it so stupidly far, he also hits a heck of a lot of fairways

distance also means he can hit short irons in and attack pins and thus he is a superb golfer who is maturing nicely and being an incredible athlete too means he really is poised to become a major star - more so than he already is.. can see him adding some majors as he has been very close and suffered a bit but that all helps build the knowledge and mental strength

so this wk... tough course and you need to be accurate but he has the attributes and if on form could be good value at about 19 on betfair..win bet for me

phil mickelson > not often you get mickelson at the odds he has been offered at quite a few times this season - backed him in the open championship on that basis as he was about 40 plus which is great value..he proved then that he could still tick along in contention..

no whe has switched to the 'in' putter he may well miss a few but that has always been his way - more than capable and although he may miss some fairways here and struggle I wouldnt be surprised if he scored well overall and was in contention

could be a decent value bet accordingly at 25/1 or so... he can still come from nowhere to an extent and take the fedex cup - finished 10th last wk and shot a tasty 63 in the penultimate round; problem here could well be the course but its tough for all of them and micko is more experienced than almost all here of course - chance for the slightly older guy to hold back the stream of new young guns taking over perhaps 27 betfair

bo van pelt > consistent all season and has made 17 of 24 cuts and then gone on to finish in the top 25 in 12 of those 17 weekenders - so if he gets off to a start he should stay the course wellhad 4 top10s too this season but only 1 in the frame so unlikely to win but could sneak in late and make the top 5 perhaps... in good nick and hence lets hope he continues this week... finished well last event - has some decent stats and does well in overall ranking and ball striking (both 9th) - also has had some decent finishes this season in big events with 8th at the masters and 14th in the us open.. was 7th at the deutsche 2 weeks ago.. hope he finds the putts to keep that form going a she needs to gain more shots on the flat surfaces 75 betfair