off to lytham for the 141st OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP this week and the third major of the year..my tips for the majors are not normally over impressive unfortunately so I'm not going to over-analyse this one and go with initial thoughts with a dash of common sense regarding the likely conditions...
most bookies paying 6 or 7 places but I'll use betfair as always
going to ignore the market leaders as not over-keen on them; obviously they are class acts but there is the odd doubt and the prices don't really appeal in an event which has so many potential winners - granted the winner will probably tick the boxes so will be experienced, calm, accurate, good under pressure, etc etc and that tends to point to all the 'main men'but in recent times plenty of unfancied and young golfers have shown they can step up and with the scoring these days (courtesy of modern equipment) then there's more chance of a long-shot coming through
I have a feeling that the weather will either make a mockery of it or it will remain calm enough for it to be fairly easy in which case the pins will probably be stuck in tricky spots meaning a lot of luck will be required
this could well be a weird week with some big names missing the cut perhaps; might be worth some brave bets and looking at rory, tiger perhaps there? common sense would mean donald westy should make the top 5 really but who knows? could be a strange one and don't be surprised to see some unlikely names up there this week
tips are >
martin LAIRD > has improved his game no end since late 09 or so and has established himself on the US Tour; has won twice and has had some decent finishes in big events with 2nd places in the Players this year and the Barclays previously; bit corny picking a Scot but should be at home and is in good form with a respectable effort last week in the Scottish Open - is ranked way down on accuracy on the US Tour but is top 10 for GIR surprisingly so knows how to find the putting surface regularly.. can putt well and if he is on song then he should feature and looks over-priced at 130
francesco MOLINARI > terrific from tee to green and really should have won recently but has played so well; whether he can maintain this and really make a mark in a major is debatable and his price has been shot to pieces but... and it's a big but as he struggles to string 4 rounds together, he is in top form and has the game to do well - add in some luck and he may be a solid each way shout, 50 on b/f
graeme MCDOWELL > under the radar when he played really well at the US Open finishing 2nd, has a 2nd previously this year on the US Tour and with the likely weather this week should be one of the more likely winners in the market - ranked 2nd in the US for accuracy off the tee which is superb and should really help, par 4 scoring is really good too and just needs to sink some small putts and he may well be looking to add another major to his haul.. has the experience,form, ability, etc and worth backing at 36
rafael CABRERA-BELLO > backed him a few times as he seems to have stepped up from being a potentially good player to a top class performer on the euro tour this yr - in good form and was showing well last week too until a poor hole stopped him on sunday; price is probably right but if he can carry the confidence of a tour win and recent good efforts then he may well sneak up that leaderboard and looks a really good top 10 shout at least for me.. 220 currently
mark WILSON > 650 is a daft price really for a player who is really under-rated; another neat tidy player who could really do well here if his game is on song and he gets a bit of luck - granted the price reflects his recent form with plenty of MCs but he is extremely accurate and can putt well - has won 5 times on the US Tour so warrants respect and could be one of those players that make you wonder where he came from when he leads at the weekend (hopefully!); has a terrible record in majors and big events actually so maybe this really is a wild stab in the dark but he is still worth a look for me
jim FURYK > golden oldie time and mr furyk could well be worth a dabble at about 55 this week; has made 13 cuts of 15 this yr, 9 times making the top 25, 4 top 10s and of course a 4th in the US Open - super accurate, a great scrambler and putting really well; has the demeanour to prosper if it gets tough this week - looks a really solid shout and may just cap a superb career in style if he believes
top 10 market >
john SENDEN > really has no chance of winning as just can't get the wins he deserves but has a great tidy game which should really suit here; can see him being up there and then fading but good top 10 possibility > 12.5 betfair
ben CURTIS > new improved version in recent times has rekindled interest in curtis who of course is a previous open winner; has the game for this course and being accurate, tidy and a good par4 scorer he should be up there > 9 betfair
justin ROSE > I remember being at lytham in 96 when he made his astonishing debut as a 17yr old - course should suit and he looks solid enough to get up amongst them > 3.55 is a tad short so may avoid this
ross FISHER > didn't play much until last few mths but has come along nicely and with an excellent tee to green game he really should be looking to make a mark this week - fancy him to sneak up into the top 10 > 8 on betfair
trading >
can't resist doing some early trading and picking these in the hope they get off to flyers >
marc LEISHMAN > should do well on this links course and tough player > 550
richie RAMSAY > mainly a hunch, 500
pablo LARRAZABAL > on him already at 470 but 320 now after playing well last wk, real hit or miss player
ryo ISHIKAWA > talented although not really in form, if on song then could drop quickly, 500
snedeker and fraser are others worth looking at...
