transitions championship

staying in florida this week and the TRANSITIONS Championship at copperhead golf course at innisbrook - a tough course for a change and less chance of daft 61s flying around although doral was supposed to be a challenge last week and didn't prove too tricky with 62s etc...

should be a good event however and off the back of last week's winning tip there are a few who look like lively contenders this week

for once, the top of the market looks justifiably strong and you would be sensible to back the likes of donald, rose, schwartz etc but they rarely if ever do come in 1-2-3-4 of course so need to look for some value elsewhere

the course is reasonably long but not a problem for these lads; tight however and with the rough likely to be reasonably penal, accuracy off the tee is obviously vital - hitting these greens is important too though so immediately you are thinking of the neat accurate players like donald rose choi etc...

woodland last yr was surprisingly a winner as although he is good he is a bomber and unlikely to benefit here but he did putt amazingly well!

ok, picks this week are >

brandt SNEDEKER > watched him birdie a string of consecutive holes on the back 9 on sunday and as he had food poisoning in the first round then perhaps he could have played better than it turned out - this course obviously suits and with a win already this yr he coudl be the first to win twice on tour in 2012 > looks to be a solid bet and at the 48 price on betfair I'm jumping in... the sort of player who seems to do well at certain times or especially on certain courses and that recent win will have really helped his confidence in closing out tourneys - if he gets away well then he may be hard to peg back as this isn't the sort of course where people come out of the pack and shoot 63s to win on sundays

justin ROSE > going for the hatrick here as backed him 2 weeks ago as thought he was due to click and make the frame, he duly obliged so I went on him last wk too and also top 10 as looked terrific value - he pipped bubba to make it a great week and as he has purple patches and has a good consistent record here and the course should suit, can't really ignore even at a low 19 betfair

zach JOHNSON > showed signs of improved form recently with top 20 finishes but this event may trigger a much better effort and with a string of tour wins behind him he wont be fazed about being in contention - top 10 at humana and stats also looking good as accurate and scoring average is good... needs to just step it up a bit and this could be the place to do it, 50 is attractive indeed for a proven winner coming into form and with a course to suit

charl SCHWARTZEL > backing him a lot and already pencilled in for the masters where he can 're-peat' I think - in great form and probably still under-ranked as there aren't many who are playing better than him - was a bit wayward last week surprisingly but still made the top 5 and was a good lay for me (and top 10 bet winner) > no reason not to back him despite the skinny odds as if he were 10/1 I would still think he could win.. he may well be in a terrific run of consistent form and be due a poor event but I will kick myself if I dont back him again, 18 betfair

5th pick is a toss up between LAIRD and SENDEN and HANSON > all 3 have a good chance and hanson is the most likely to win out of them as he has the mental strength; laird next and senden whilst having the best stats and being most obvious here, is the one who finds it hardest to get it done - the sort of player who fades when leading, or shoots really low once he is too far back etc... impressive indeed and saw him play some terrific golf down in oz in our summer recently but just can't quite get the wins he probably deserves as he has a great accurate solid game...

LAIRD is my pick of these 3 probably as he is comfortable on this tour now and probably more confident having got a win; hits it long but is also accurate and is in good form, 48 on betfair is very attractive although I might be looking to lay of if he goes well.. will probably watch the other 2 and maybe dabble on them is it looks wise

expecting ishikawa (95) to feature too as his terrific short game should really ensure he scores well here - so adding hanson and senden in to the top10, maybe donald and kuchar to make it in there too

top 10s > snedeker and johnson are both 5.5 currently which isn't bad at all... look solid chances to me

trading > looking at couch at 370, appleby at 380 as longshots for a quick trade if they start well, chalmers at 160 is a stronger trade probably... ishikawa perhaps too at 95

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BEST BET > SNEDEKER

Next Best > Z Johnson

mcgladrey classic (us pga tour)

the fall series continues this week with the McGLADREY CLASSIC in georgia - a par 70 course at 7000 or so yards which isn't the toughest but you have to stick it in the right place so it should suit the shorter neater players and this is where most of the focus is this week

plenty of tour pros live here so will be a local event for a few of them - usually makes them perform a shot or two better with local knowledge and some good fan backing

quite a few playing for their cards obviously and I like some of the recent efforts of a few players where they have sneaked into the top 10 or shot a really low one

so...

adam HADWIN > young canadian has featured in the top 10 recently a couple of times and looks a useful player - likewise, compatriot McQUILLAN has been in the top 10 a couple of times in recent events too so worth a look

McKENZIE & BERTSCH both showed some form last week and both need to move up the rankings a bit to get their cards sorted so can expect them to be worth a back to lay perhaps

bud CAULEY looks to be a very good prospect too and he's another worth checking although odds already look a bit too low (shows the regard people have for him however)

regarding potential winners, CASEY warmed up well last wk which was on the back of a win in Asia so he may be a decent bet here, 38 is enough for me (betfair); there's a few who fit the bill and have ties locally in some way so SNEDEKER and ZACH J look likely to feature so will back both of those...

Sneds can be a pain as usually plays poorly when I back him so let's break that run.. 28 betfair; as for Zach, it would be amiss not to go for the local resident who usually manages to find a win at some point when playing consistently well.. hasn't got one yet this yr on main tour so this could be good timing -12th here last yr and not bad value at 27 betfair

C HOWELL and ALLENBY will presumably play fairly well also and might be worth a few dollars but perhaps KIRK at 65 is better value than Howell.. also looking at Hunter HAAS at 140 and HADWIN at 180 as decent shouts

might dabble on some of these if they look in good nick.. will probably start with Casey, Johnson, Sneds, Haas and Hadwin and keep an eye on Allenby, Kirk and co

trading > will go with Mackenzie at 260, Bertsch at 250, Stankowski has shown a bit recently and 450 isn't bad - looking to lay these guys if they go well initially