us masters

US MASTERS 2012

5th-8th APRIL - the 76th running of this spectacular and popular major

Course > Augusta National, par 72 and 7,435 yards.. It is an undulating course so you can get a lot of run on some holes and you don’t need to be a long hitter to do well. You do however need to have a great short game as good approaches can often end up off the green and the greens are tricky to say the least – fast with plenty of subtle borrows and swales

In the past few years the scores have been higher generally with not so many golfers breaking par by the Sunday night (Tiger's fault for shooting 270 in 1997!) although last year it played relatively easily with -14 being the winning score

A few yrs ago, Augusta was capable of being tamed but now there are less 'easy' holes where birdies are fairly common, and many more holes where you are thankful to get a part; I've watched the Masters for over 30yrs and the winner is not so much whoever has the game for the course (ie those who draw the ball not fade used to succeed more, plus the big hitters used to dominate it as it was so open) but more whoever is playing at the top of their form

You have to drive well and putt well obviously but also stay positive and ignore the inevitable bogey - play the sensible shot when it matters and not go for broke on the par5s unless you are hitting it really well; the 15th always offers eagle opportunity but plenty have found the water short and suffered a 6 or more..  likewise the 13th is tempting but sometimes you get as many birdies by those laying up as those who go for the green in two

Scoring > you have to expect 8-10 bogeys over the wk probably for the winner - could be higher but that's the usual mark ie take your medicine and accept a couple of bogeys a round. Birdies are available of course; the most has been 25 by Mickelson which is some going. A lot of players will be looking to shoot around par ie 3 birdies and 3 bogeys perhaps and take a good round if it's there, you don't normally get too many 65s here; anyone who sprays it around will no doubt have to have an immense short game to escape with decent scores

Also depends a bit on the weather of course but more so on the green speed and the pin placements - the greens will be their usual speed probably and the pin placements are the main defence that the course has - all the usual spots with sunday being the hardest as always (bar the 16th where there is a decent chance of an ace)

Odds > all on betfair

Woods 5.8 > can you back against him?
McIlroy 7.0 > meltdown will be forgotten with a win, skinny price though
Mickelson 14 > hard to back against with his record and form
Donald 17 > great chance with terrific short game
Westwood 21 > overdue
Rose 34 > maybe just past his hot spell, good 1st round leader bet!
Mahan 36 popular after winning this wk but hard to go back to back let alone win this
Scott 38 > flatters to deceive
Day 42 > great debut last yr but not much form to warrant this price
Schwartzel 46 > on the drift which is good news as great chance of a repeat
Bradley > 40 > inform but debutants never win here!
Watson 55 > length but suspect under pressure


field > 60 and above... some great value in there especially for trading

* the beauty of having an inform duo at the top of the market is that it pushes the prices out for everyone else - there are some terrific players at 70 or 80 or 100 who could easily win this... Mickelson with his record and form this yr should really be a 7/1 shot but he's 13/1 here due to the Tiger & 'boy wonder' prices

Last Year (2011) >

 
1 Schwartzel -14

2 Day -12

3 Scott -12

4 Woods -10

4 Ogilvy -10

4 Donald -10

7 Cabrera -9

8 Van Pelt -8

8 Choi -8

10 Palmer -6

Since 2000 (last 11 Yrs) > Top 10 finishes

9 - Mickelson
8 - Tiger
6 - VJ
5 - Els
4 - Goosen

* stunning record of big Phil and Tiger has to be respected here as they are amazingly consistent for a tour event let alone a major

The Field > being a major you would expect to see an unusual name up near the top of the leaderboard on day 1 (Justin Rose has however managed to be top after 1st round 3 times) but they usually fade and by Sunday the bigger names appear – definitely a case of ‘you can’t win it on Thursday & Friday but you can lose it’ – last year saw Couples & Tom Watson at the top after day 1 though so the evergreen pros still do well here – this isn’t a course/event for debutants to flourish in 


Look for > Current form and good previous history here definitely helps, debutants often struggle as do those who just can’t seem to get it going here; for some reason, there are a few with average at best records (Kaymer for example) but it is of course a major tourney with the world’s best players so you would expect the cream to rise to the top

Those who can putt well from distance and also 5-6 feet as you will get a lot of those par-saver distances here

GIR is more important here than accuracy or distance off the tee – you can’t keep missing greens and expect to keep getting up and down so those who do well will be probably top 5 in this stat

Experience counts – it will be unusual for a non tour winner to succeed here; you will probably have a champion who has won many times on tour and/or majors 


Woods > 7 years have elapsed since he donned the green jacket; could be time for him to notch another major as it seems to be almost inevitable in some ways - the win a fortnight ago certainly pushed a lot of doubters back towards backing him and his price consequently firmed up a lot - whether 5/1 is worth taking is another matter as this isn't an ordinary tour event. Tiger is no ordinary player though so with his confidence on the greens back, his superb tee to green game and his experience, hard to go against him eh? unless someone else has an absolute blinder or gets very lucky I expect him to shoot 68-69 average and -14 or so may be hard to beat > not sure whether I will back him at 5/1 unless I go in with big stakes but I may just trade him as a separate entity to all my other bets (I often trade Tiger back and forth as it is quite easy to read the market moves with him)


Donald > a player I used to rarely back as he didn't have the killer instinct, steady and solid bu tnot doing enough when it mattered - he has really stepped up a level or two obviously and is the deserved world no 1 although doesn't get the credit he should as he is not a media darling - terrific short game and such a reliable putter these days and that is to his benefit here; can see him working his way through the field and probably being the steadiest on Sunday and notching birdies late on whilst others fall away under the pressure.. could well be a duel between him and Tiger which is the world no 1 against the 'soon to be' world no 1 again perhaps > will be taking Luke at about 17


so that's 2 of the top 3 in the betting - won't go for Mickelson although he looks to be a solid bet with a win this year, great form this week and his amazing record here too - if anyone is going to walk this tournament it could be him but there is also always that doubt with Phil that he may suddenly lose his way or miss some daft short putts


I'm leaving Rory and Westy as both are more than capable but I have the odd doubt - Rory will win more majors for sure but it might take him a while to get settled enough again to do so - Westy is a nearly man like Monty these days - should have won one by now and has been so close but cant quite seem to get it done in the majors


Rose has had his hot spell recently where he hit form and played courses he likes - he loves this one too and has a knack of leading after round 1 (3 times!) but may have gone off the boil slightly now. Day played extremely well last year in the majors and was so close here too but hasn't really done much in recent months and is probably having a quiet year before re-surfacing on the scene in a big way as he has the ability for sure. Scott is a good player and will benefit from having Steve Williams on his bag but doesn't look quite strong enough currently against a field of this quality and current form


Schwartzel was an early pick of mine for this a month or so back - his form has drifted in the last few weeks with 2 missed cuts on this tour after a string of top 5s etc > whether this is him tweaking before his defence of this trophy we don't know but he should still put up a spirited effort - those 2 missed cuts are unusual though and maybe a sign of him going off the boil - his odds have drifted accordingly from 38 to about 46 now


Bradley is making his debut here and that's not a reason to back any golfer here - he has the ability and the form but it is a big ask to come here and win at the first go although it isn't impossible - will have plenty of supporters though and 40/1 isn't too bad but just looks skinny compared with some others


Bubba is a decent price if going by stats is the way - his length and GIR record should mean plenty of birdie opps but always a doubt over his temperament and ability to withstand the extreme pressure on a Sunday


So on to the others >


Van Pelt > in great form, stats are good, had some good finishes already this season so should be full of confidence and was top 10 here last year > perhaps unlikely to win but could go really well at a good price and looks a reasonably good shout for the top 10 too > 130 betfair


Ed Molinari > great player and has the game for this course - has returned from injury and played well recently so is warming up nicely for this - should go on to do better than his more heralded brother - price is 450 which I'm all over as a good start should see that fall nicely so a good trading opportunity if nothing else.. great value for a classy player, 11th last year after an opening 74


Simpson > odds of 80 make this a more tempting bet than the 40 on bradley - simpson has been a bit under the radar and as a debutant you wouldn't expect much but he has the ability and can putt well especially from mid to long range - might be a quiet one that sneaks through and suddenly appears on Sunday in the top 5


Bill Haas > super popular young man who has really proven to have what it takes - has already won tournaments and the fedex cup (in style!) and wouldn't surprise me if he found his form here and put in a great showing - 120 is tempting as he has had a rest before this event; played ok last yr here but struggled on the 13th, will have learned a bit and should improve on that 42nd place


Stanley > unlikely to do well as young and confident and on debut here which is normally a recipe for disaster! but this guy has stacks of ability - hits it long and hits greens and makes birdies - should score well on the par5s and may just enjoy this - not sure he will last so maybe a back to lay bet but worth taking on at 150 on potential! will probably miss too many short putts but a bit of luck may help


Oosthuizen > 90 is attractive for Oosty who should really benefit from last week's effort - just missed out on the win but playing well and that should give him the necessary boost - if he clicks he will make that price look daft


Choi > always worth a passing interest in the super steady unflappable KJ - played well here in recent years of course and will know what to do and no doubt plod around happily although it won't show... steady and popular and 75 is about right - not in great form so not a definite back


* there are plenty of others too such as Stricker, Poulter, DJ and so on... 


Old Boys > you often get a few previous winners having good rounds here and reminding us former glories - expect good showings from Couples, Immelman and Cabrera with the latter being a decent bet for this tourney at 100 as he likes it here and has the record and recent form too




SELECTIONS > narrowing these down to who could win or who is a possible winner makes this easier - there are plenty of good bets on paper but will some of them WIN? there are certain players you expect to come through on Sunday afternoon and others who will fall away


Tiger WOODS > 5.8 is high enough as the script seems written to me - he has the form and confidence and obviously the ability and experience - must have had doubts in his own mind but consolidating his lead and strolling to victory recently will have surely given that last bit of the jigsaw as he looks to establish himself back at the top and notch more majors; any edge that may have gone of fhis game looks to have been replaced by a super solid swing and a desire to prove a few critics wrong since his 'problems'


Luke DONALD > maybe the most likely to push Tiger or win in his own right - seems slightly miffed still by the lack of respect for his ranking and would probably love to win this to prove his point > 17.5 gets my money


Louis OOSTHUIZEN > the good showing at Houston is likely to give him the impetus to do well and when he plays well he can be really good - odds have tightened but 90 is still attractive for a major winner in form


Charl SCHWARTZEL > despite a couple of missed cuts I'm not deserting the defending champ as he can turn it on and often players have done well here year on year - has the ability and obviously confidence being the title holder; was extremely consistent worldwide until those last 2 events but perhaps his eye was off the ball and he was saving his efforts for this week here - drifted to 46 which is good, should be a good top 10 bet unless his game has really gone off the boil


Bo VAN PELT > you often get someone who don't expect lurking in the top 5 at the weekend and Bo looks the one for me - excellent form with 4 top 10s in last 4 strokeplay events, had a brief rest too; was 8th here last yr (previous visit was 2005) - stats this yr are superb and no1 ranked in total putting and strokes gained... looks a decent shout at good odds and will be backing him for top 10 too > 130 betfair


* these will be my 5 picks this week - will also look to trade a few and have some top 10 bets as well as they have been really profitable in the last few weeks since I started looking at them


will keep an eye on Haas, Simpson and Stanley as all good players who could flourish and in the 80-150 price range - all possible top 10 bets for me too


Trading > 


Ed Molinari huge at 450 and if he gets off to a good start then that should come down nicely, great longshot for me as mentioned above


Moore looks big at 320 (good record here and decent amount of top 10s, big blowout last wk though, dropped 11 shots in 6 holes on way to an 85)


Ishikawa at 380 (terrific short game will really help compensate his lack of distance and experience)


Palmer at 300 (multiple tour winner and always one I look for at big odds, capable of going really well)

arnold palmer invitational (bay hill)

off to Bay Hill, Orlando this week for the ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL - a popular event and a decent field assembled for it too

this event used to be pretty much owned by tiger but things have changed a bit in the last couple of years eh? tiger is back here this year along with the in-form justin rose and big phil but there are plenty of others including the new kids on the block who are looking to take over and establish themselves as consistent tour winners rather than 'flash in the pans'

at least we have a tricky course for a change although I thought that last week and promptly watched pod shoot a 61

two weeks to go until the masters so good chance for some to sharpen their games up a bit and a chance for others to nick a tour win whilst the focus may be starting to concentrate on AUGUSTA

having backed rose for the past 3 weeks I am inclined to leave him this week although he plays ok here and has the game to do well being the sort of course that requires good ball-striking (don't they all?) and the ability to find these greens in set numbers

tiger apparently played ok at lake nona this week and seems to be fit and healthy but there are doubts of course; perhaps he will find his range on the greens and make his price look generous indeed - that would also affect the masters prices too of course as a tiger win here would really move the market out to longer odds 

this event/course usually requires experience over youthful enthusiasm and as such, ELS and FURYK both appear on the radar after their recent good efforts; if ernie had the confidence to sink a few he would be off the back of a win last week - his tee to green game is really impressive

GARCIA is another who is in good form and having picked up a couple of wins last yr he may well be in the mood to take a big tour win again but I have some doubts so will avoid him although he may well be a good back to lay or top 10 bet - popular no doubt but no value for me with his demons still in there I feel, much better value in some of the others in the market

TIGER has an awesome record here and is game is looking excellent bar his putting - he seems to be lagging putts well but is mis-reading too many from middle-distance - it may well click or else we are looking at someone who will never be as good as he was which means he may well win again but he won't be as dominant.. thus, the big question is what price is value with him? having seen him shoot that 62 recently and checking his record overall in the stuttering past 2 years, I think he is still likely to win and often and probably just needs to get some confidence on the greens and ensure his caddie is not hindering him in reading them

MICKO is having a good season but is not a great fan of this course judging by his results - he may well be happy to fine tune with Augusta in mind so I wouldn't be too keen on backing him here

have updated my rankings for this event and they are as follows >

my ranking / name / points

2 woods 14.67

7 rose 20.33

9 haas 21.67

10 simpson 23.67

11 watney 24.00

12 watson 24.33

13 mickelson 25.50

14 garcia26.83

15 mahan 27.00

17 choi 29.67

20 van pelt 30.83

> these reflect the form, ranking, previous event perf, etc etc and these are the players here this week of course

* the value here is woods as he is -6 to my combined current ranking v official world ranking

 haas, watney and van pelt also show up as value bets this week according to the rankings 

* further down my rankings, els comes up as value this week and overton and o'hair show quite positively too

> next I check the odds to see if there is real value ie the actual price is good compared with what my rankings expect - tiger looks to be reasonably good value here due to his record and his form etc but obviously there is a big question mark over him still; top 5 is likely but not much value

rose may have had his 3 week spell and be slightly off the boil although this course is another good one for him

haas is going great guns and worth looking at, watney is due an upturn as he is close (odds lengthening on him nicely)

simpson is still impressing with consistency but not quite doing enough yet perhaps

ok, here are this week's picks >

bubba WATSON > last time out a fortnight ago he probably should have won (lost the playoff) and was well placed in this here last yr too.. as he also tops the rankings in distance off the tee and GIR then you really have to expect a good performance here from bubba; might not be the best at holding a lead but he can shoot low and could well be in the mix on sunday and thus worth backing at 28 betfair

bo VAN PELT > has managed to make the cut each time he has played (7) and thus looks to be worth backing when bearing in mind his recent form; under the radar indeed and probably enjoying it accordingly 34 betfair is low perhaps but van pelt has finished top 10 in his last 4 strokeplay events and that is after finishing last season well with top 10s at both the deutsche and tour championships, followed by a win in malaysia at the asia pacific classic - he is ranked 3rd in strokes gained putting, 3rd in birdies, 4th allround and 5th in total driving on this year's tour too - impressive indeed and shows his current improved performance

ernie ELS > toss-up between him and furyk but the way he played tee to green last week and the fact he needs a result to qualify for the masters means ernie may well be worth getting behind here this week - tempted to lay if he does well so perhaps not an ideal fixed odds bet but the big easy is on the up game-wise and having won here twice he gets the nod, 44 betfair

zach JOHNSON > backed him last wk and worth another go here as he has a decent record and obviously the experience - game could suit too as the course rewards all players if they play sensibly, 50 betfair looks generous but understandable - really think he should step up again soon and want to be on him if so

final pick really is a toss-up between mahan, watney and simpson > odds-wise watney takes this although form-wise it should be mahan then simpson! WATNEY is close I feel and could improve here; 4th here 3 years ago and has good GIR stats - too good a player to be away from the sunday fun for long and worth a dabble at 40 (probably regret this as mahan or simpson do the biz!)

trading > nibbles at mcgirt 430, ishikawa and palmer both 230, love 240, stroud 170

top 10 market > bubba 3.2, garcia 3.8 els 5.2 interest me

bmw championship (fedex playoff)

charl schwartzel > masters champion is often still under the radar but has the ability and has had a cracking record in recent times in big events.. more than capable of playing well on tough courses like this and could be timing his form just nicely again... might well want to add some playoff glory to his improving cv

led at halfway in boston and was looking good but may be able to string it together for 4 days here.. tough course will sort some of them out and not a birdiefest like recently too thankfully

can see jason day doing well but isnt getting over the finish line...his time will no doubt come soon -  the main protagonists should all be up there... stricker has gone off the boil so avoiding him for a change and watney is in form despite an awful hole messing him up last time out

villegas I have backed a lot recently but odds have dropped now so not so much value there..sneds too could be in the mix... have gone for a few that may do it this week but any of the field and especially the top 20 in the market could easily win this open event > 36 betfair

jim furyk > available at 30 on betfair and sneaking into some form, almost reminiscent of last yr where he kinda came from nowhere to take the pot of gold...

hasnt done much all year but is looking more solid these days and more like his old self - finished 9th at the wyndham and then 6th last time out so starting to find the top 10 again after a string of mediocre perfs

stats dont say much understandably but hi sgame is built around being unspectacular... plotting his way round and it obviously works well for him to say the least... this should help here of course and if he can sink a few putts then he may make a good move here and be capable of defending his title

has a stellar career record and a terrific record inthese playoffs too.. also has a string of top 10 finishes here so everything is lined up for him to revert to type and grind his way round to a top 5 finish or a surprising win perhaps - 30 betfair

dustin johnson > won this last year and was also a winner a few weeks ago when the playoffs started so not much more needs to be added about his ability other than for a guy who hits it so stupidly far, he also hits a heck of a lot of fairways

distance also means he can hit short irons in and attack pins and thus he is a superb golfer who is maturing nicely and being an incredible athlete too means he really is poised to become a major star - more so than he already is.. can see him adding some majors as he has been very close and suffered a bit but that all helps build the knowledge and mental strength

so this wk... tough course and you need to be accurate but he has the attributes and if on form could be good value at about 19 on betfair..win bet for me

phil mickelson > not often you get mickelson at the odds he has been offered at quite a few times this season - backed him in the open championship on that basis as he was about 40 plus which is great value..he proved then that he could still tick along in contention..

no whe has switched to the 'in' putter he may well miss a few but that has always been his way - more than capable and although he may miss some fairways here and struggle I wouldnt be surprised if he scored well overall and was in contention

could be a decent value bet accordingly at 25/1 or so... he can still come from nowhere to an extent and take the fedex cup - finished 10th last wk and shot a tasty 63 in the penultimate round; problem here could well be the course but its tough for all of them and micko is more experienced than almost all here of course - chance for the slightly older guy to hold back the stream of new young guns taking over perhaps 27 betfair

bo van pelt > consistent all season and has made 17 of 24 cuts and then gone on to finish in the top 25 in 12 of those 17 weekenders - so if he gets off to a start he should stay the course wellhad 4 top10s too this season but only 1 in the frame so unlikely to win but could sneak in late and make the top 5 perhaps... in good nick and hence lets hope he continues this week... finished well last event - has some decent stats and does well in overall ranking and ball striking (both 9th) - also has had some decent finishes this season in big events with 8th at the masters and 14th in the us open.. was 7th at the deutsche 2 weeks ago.. hope he finds the putts to keep that form going a she needs to gain more shots on the flat surfaces 75 betfair