wells fargo championship

off to North Carolina this week for the excellent WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP which was more recently known as the Wachovia Championship; this is where young Rory shot 64/62 at the weekend to win and truly announce himself on the world stage a couple of years ago

we have a really good field this week and with Quail Hollow being a tough course, this promises to be an excellent few days of golf

great to see the boy wonder, micko, tiger, westwood all competing and shame donald isn't there too but still a mouth-watering event - previous winners indicate that the cream usually rises to the top in this championship

this course demands everything, good accuracy off the tee as you will struggle if you aren't top 30 or so here, GIR as always or else you have to be a top scrambler, and the greens really find you out so good putters will more than most weeks prosper here

so a good all-round effort basically and hence the consistent top players do well - course has got a bit easier perhaps in recent yrs although this week may have longer rough apparently - mcilroy and westwood should find the greens well but their flat stick will determine their results hence rory being a few pts lower

tiger is a conundrum as ever - if he has his swing back then can he read the putts? augusta was a strange one from him as he looked to be back

micko is hard to call but is starting to look value when checking his record here and his results this season

young players can do well here too however although they do have to be either already good (rory) or of top potential

I have updated my rankings so will have a look at them although I have a few in mind to pick and one or two locals who may well put in extra effort being on home turf

my rankings >

1 mcilroy 10.33

2 woods 12.00

3 mickelson 14.67

4 westwood 18.83

5 mahan 22.50

6 simpson 24.83

7 haas 26.50

8 bradley 29.50

9 z johnson 31.67

10 furyk 34.17

11 van pelt 35.50

* this is the top 11 of my top 25 world ranked currently... thus my rankings which include course / event form as well as current form and mental strength etc indicate that these would be the finishing positions > what I then do is look for the prices and what I think and pick my golfers from there...

* mickelson hasn't won here but has a great consistent record, tiger can obviously win if he has regained his swing which looked great pre-masters, rory should be fav and is, and so on

> looking at betfair, haas looks over-priced at 55 but he has lost a bit of form; simpson likewise is a bit generous at 36 as being a wake forest grad and a member here you would expect him to do better than his form dictates

> furyk is just 25 on betfair but that is explained by his terrific record here - he is definitely worth looking at as the rankings show him to be good value performance wise but his price already reflects that

> outside of these top 11 here, my rankings show good weeks for huh, byrd, villegas so all of these are worth watching; byrd may have the 'new dad' feelgood factor which often can inspire/relax players; huh looks to have great potential and villegas is hinting at a return to form and this course should suit him

* local players of interest should be simpson & haas mentioned already and de jonge too

* outsiders could be karlsson (250) who has no form but can click, a great scrambler too and capable of suddenly shooting 66s.. ken duke (150) has been peppering the leaderboard recently too as has mathis (430) and will claxton is quite a talented player so worth watching (470)

picks >

think I will swerve rory and unsure of tiger so micko gets the vote at the top...

MICKELSON > terrific record here but no W on his record - could be about to change as he may well sneak through and win here if he can keep the wild holes away and sink a few - record and form are so good so he gets the nod for me at 13 betfair

FURYK > 25 isn't high but can't ignore his record and the fact he will probably plod around without any fuss - seems to be bang on with his game again and sinking putts that matter... a boring but solid pick and he should continue his terrific record here

SIMPSON > perhaps a chance for the local lad to shine in a decent field and regain a bit of the glow he gained last year when playing so well so regularly; top 15 last wk and has been top 10 a few times already this year, 36 b/f

CURTIS > having won 2 weeks ago and made the top 15 last wk I will ride the crest with ben and as he has a 2nd place finish here previously (proving amongst others that shorter hitters can do well here) he could well nip into the frame again as he is currently playing well with great stats for accuracy GIR etc - 95 betfair

BYRD > often back this guy and he knows how to win - may be off the boil with a few wks off but that new dad factor really can help! 90 is attractive for last year's runner-up - couple of top 10s this yr and played well at augusta

trading > definitely going to see how we go with De JONGE (sign of form last week and decent here previously too, hoping for a fast start at 130

DUKE as in good touch and again good here previously, 150

VILLEGAS 180 as he may be picking up again and his tee to green game is solid

not sure about karlsson so HUH at 100 completes the traders, talented young player and in form

top10 bets > HAAS at about 5 is decent as I think he will be up there, can also get HUH CURTIS and BYRD at about 8.2 to 9 which all attract

top 5 markets > furyk 5.9 and simpson 8.4 are appealing although smaller stakes for me

arnold palmer invitational (bay hill)

off to Bay Hill, Orlando this week for the ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL - a popular event and a decent field assembled for it too

this event used to be pretty much owned by tiger but things have changed a bit in the last couple of years eh? tiger is back here this year along with the in-form justin rose and big phil but there are plenty of others including the new kids on the block who are looking to take over and establish themselves as consistent tour winners rather than 'flash in the pans'

at least we have a tricky course for a change although I thought that last week and promptly watched pod shoot a 61

two weeks to go until the masters so good chance for some to sharpen their games up a bit and a chance for others to nick a tour win whilst the focus may be starting to concentrate on AUGUSTA

having backed rose for the past 3 weeks I am inclined to leave him this week although he plays ok here and has the game to do well being the sort of course that requires good ball-striking (don't they all?) and the ability to find these greens in set numbers

tiger apparently played ok at lake nona this week and seems to be fit and healthy but there are doubts of course; perhaps he will find his range on the greens and make his price look generous indeed - that would also affect the masters prices too of course as a tiger win here would really move the market out to longer odds 

this event/course usually requires experience over youthful enthusiasm and as such, ELS and FURYK both appear on the radar after their recent good efforts; if ernie had the confidence to sink a few he would be off the back of a win last week - his tee to green game is really impressive

GARCIA is another who is in good form and having picked up a couple of wins last yr he may well be in the mood to take a big tour win again but I have some doubts so will avoid him although he may well be a good back to lay or top 10 bet - popular no doubt but no value for me with his demons still in there I feel, much better value in some of the others in the market

TIGER has an awesome record here and is game is looking excellent bar his putting - he seems to be lagging putts well but is mis-reading too many from middle-distance - it may well click or else we are looking at someone who will never be as good as he was which means he may well win again but he won't be as dominant.. thus, the big question is what price is value with him? having seen him shoot that 62 recently and checking his record overall in the stuttering past 2 years, I think he is still likely to win and often and probably just needs to get some confidence on the greens and ensure his caddie is not hindering him in reading them

MICKO is having a good season but is not a great fan of this course judging by his results - he may well be happy to fine tune with Augusta in mind so I wouldn't be too keen on backing him here

have updated my rankings for this event and they are as follows >

my ranking / name / points

2 woods 14.67

7 rose 20.33

9 haas 21.67

10 simpson 23.67

11 watney 24.00

12 watson 24.33

13 mickelson 25.50

14 garcia26.83

15 mahan 27.00

17 choi 29.67

20 van pelt 30.83

> these reflect the form, ranking, previous event perf, etc etc and these are the players here this week of course

* the value here is woods as he is -6 to my combined current ranking v official world ranking

 haas, watney and van pelt also show up as value bets this week according to the rankings 

* further down my rankings, els comes up as value this week and overton and o'hair show quite positively too

> next I check the odds to see if there is real value ie the actual price is good compared with what my rankings expect - tiger looks to be reasonably good value here due to his record and his form etc but obviously there is a big question mark over him still; top 5 is likely but not much value

rose may have had his 3 week spell and be slightly off the boil although this course is another good one for him

haas is going great guns and worth looking at, watney is due an upturn as he is close (odds lengthening on him nicely)

simpson is still impressing with consistency but not quite doing enough yet perhaps

ok, here are this week's picks >

bubba WATSON > last time out a fortnight ago he probably should have won (lost the playoff) and was well placed in this here last yr too.. as he also tops the rankings in distance off the tee and GIR then you really have to expect a good performance here from bubba; might not be the best at holding a lead but he can shoot low and could well be in the mix on sunday and thus worth backing at 28 betfair

bo VAN PELT > has managed to make the cut each time he has played (7) and thus looks to be worth backing when bearing in mind his recent form; under the radar indeed and probably enjoying it accordingly 34 betfair is low perhaps but van pelt has finished top 10 in his last 4 strokeplay events and that is after finishing last season well with top 10s at both the deutsche and tour championships, followed by a win in malaysia at the asia pacific classic - he is ranked 3rd in strokes gained putting, 3rd in birdies, 4th allround and 5th in total driving on this year's tour too - impressive indeed and shows his current improved performance

ernie ELS > toss-up between him and furyk but the way he played tee to green last week and the fact he needs a result to qualify for the masters means ernie may well be worth getting behind here this week - tempted to lay if he does well so perhaps not an ideal fixed odds bet but the big easy is on the up game-wise and having won here twice he gets the nod, 44 betfair

zach JOHNSON > backed him last wk and worth another go here as he has a decent record and obviously the experience - game could suit too as the course rewards all players if they play sensibly, 50 betfair looks generous but understandable - really think he should step up again soon and want to be on him if so

final pick really is a toss-up between mahan, watney and simpson > odds-wise watney takes this although form-wise it should be mahan then simpson! WATNEY is close I feel and could improve here; 4th here 3 years ago and has good GIR stats - too good a player to be away from the sunday fun for long and worth a dabble at 40 (probably regret this as mahan or simpson do the biz!)

trading > nibbles at mcgirt 430, ishikawa and palmer both 230, love 240, stroud 170

top 10 market > bubba 3.2, garcia 3.8 els 5.2 interest me

bmw championship (fedex playoff)

charl schwartzel > masters champion is often still under the radar but has the ability and has had a cracking record in recent times in big events.. more than capable of playing well on tough courses like this and could be timing his form just nicely again... might well want to add some playoff glory to his improving cv

led at halfway in boston and was looking good but may be able to string it together for 4 days here.. tough course will sort some of them out and not a birdiefest like recently too thankfully

can see jason day doing well but isnt getting over the finish line...his time will no doubt come soon -  the main protagonists should all be up there... stricker has gone off the boil so avoiding him for a change and watney is in form despite an awful hole messing him up last time out

villegas I have backed a lot recently but odds have dropped now so not so much value there..sneds too could be in the mix... have gone for a few that may do it this week but any of the field and especially the top 20 in the market could easily win this open event > 36 betfair

jim furyk > available at 30 on betfair and sneaking into some form, almost reminiscent of last yr where he kinda came from nowhere to take the pot of gold...

hasnt done much all year but is looking more solid these days and more like his old self - finished 9th at the wyndham and then 6th last time out so starting to find the top 10 again after a string of mediocre perfs

stats dont say much understandably but hi sgame is built around being unspectacular... plotting his way round and it obviously works well for him to say the least... this should help here of course and if he can sink a few putts then he may make a good move here and be capable of defending his title

has a stellar career record and a terrific record inthese playoffs too.. also has a string of top 10 finishes here so everything is lined up for him to revert to type and grind his way round to a top 5 finish or a surprising win perhaps - 30 betfair

dustin johnson > won this last year and was also a winner a few weeks ago when the playoffs started so not much more needs to be added about his ability other than for a guy who hits it so stupidly far, he also hits a heck of a lot of fairways

distance also means he can hit short irons in and attack pins and thus he is a superb golfer who is maturing nicely and being an incredible athlete too means he really is poised to become a major star - more so than he already is.. can see him adding some majors as he has been very close and suffered a bit but that all helps build the knowledge and mental strength

so this wk... tough course and you need to be accurate but he has the attributes and if on form could be good value at about 19 on betfair..win bet for me

phil mickelson > not often you get mickelson at the odds he has been offered at quite a few times this season - backed him in the open championship on that basis as he was about 40 plus which is great value..he proved then that he could still tick along in contention..

no whe has switched to the 'in' putter he may well miss a few but that has always been his way - more than capable and although he may miss some fairways here and struggle I wouldnt be surprised if he scored well overall and was in contention

could be a decent value bet accordingly at 25/1 or so... he can still come from nowhere to an extent and take the fedex cup - finished 10th last wk and shot a tasty 63 in the penultimate round; problem here could well be the course but its tough for all of them and micko is more experienced than almost all here of course - chance for the slightly older guy to hold back the stream of new young guns taking over perhaps 27 betfair

bo van pelt > consistent all season and has made 17 of 24 cuts and then gone on to finish in the top 25 in 12 of those 17 weekenders - so if he gets off to a start he should stay the course wellhad 4 top10s too this season but only 1 in the frame so unlikely to win but could sneak in late and make the top 5 perhaps... in good nick and hence lets hope he continues this week... finished well last event - has some decent stats and does well in overall ranking and ball striking (both 9th) - also has had some decent finishes this season in big events with 8th at the masters and 14th in the us open.. was 7th at the deutsche 2 weeks ago.. hope he finds the putts to keep that form going a she needs to gain more shots on the flat surfaces 75 betfair