open championship

off to lytham for the 141st OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP this week and the third major of the year..


my tips for the majors are not normally over impressive unfortunately so I'm not going to over-analyse this one and go with initial thoughts with a dash of common sense regarding the likely conditions...

most bookies paying 6 or 7 places but I'll use betfair as always

going to ignore the market leaders as not over-keen on them; obviously they are class acts but there is the odd doubt and the prices don't really appeal in an event which has so many potential winners - granted the winner will probably tick the boxes so will be experienced, calm, accurate, good under pressure, etc etc and that tends to point to all the 'main men'but in recent times plenty of unfancied and young golfers have shown they can step up and with the scoring these days (courtesy of modern equipment) then there's more chance of a long-shot coming through

I have a feeling that the weather will either make a mockery of it or it will remain calm enough for it to be fairly easy in which case the pins will probably be stuck in tricky spots meaning a lot of luck will be required

this could well be a weird week with some big names missing the cut perhaps; might be worth some brave bets and looking at rory, tiger perhaps there? common sense would mean donald westy should make the top 5 really but who knows? could be a strange one and don't be surprised to see some unlikely names up there this week

tips are >

martin LAIRD > has improved his game no end since late 09 or so and has established himself on the US Tour; has won twice and has had some decent finishes in big events with 2nd places in the Players this year and the Barclays previously; bit corny picking a Scot but should be at home and is in good form with a respectable effort last week in the Scottish Open - is ranked way down on accuracy on the US Tour but is top 10 for GIR surprisingly so knows how to find the putting surface regularly.. can putt well and if he is on song then he should feature and looks over-priced at 130

francesco MOLINARI > terrific from tee to green and really should have won recently but has played so well; whether he can maintain this and really make a mark in a major is debatable and his price has been shot to pieces but... and it's a big but as he struggles to string 4 rounds together, he is in top form and has the game to do well - add in some luck and he may be a solid each way shout, 50 on b/f

graeme MCDOWELL > under the radar when he played really well at the US Open finishing 2nd, has a 2nd previously this year on the US Tour and with the likely weather this week should be one of the more likely winners in the market - ranked 2nd in the US for accuracy off the tee which is superb and should really help, par 4 scoring is really good too and just needs to sink some small putts and he may well be looking to add another major to his haul.. has the experience,form, ability, etc and worth backing at 36

rafael CABRERA-BELLO > backed him a few times as he seems to have stepped up from being a potentially good player to a top class performer on the euro tour this yr - in good form and was showing well last week too until a poor hole stopped him on sunday; price is probably right but if he can carry the confidence of a tour win and recent good efforts then he may well sneak up that leaderboard and looks a really good top 10 shout at least for me.. 220 currently

mark WILSON > 650 is a daft price really for a player who is really under-rated; another neat tidy player who could really do well here if his game is on song and he gets a bit of luck - granted the price reflects his recent form with plenty of MCs but he is extremely accurate and can putt well - has won 5 times on the US Tour so warrants respect and could be one of those players that make you wonder where he came from when he leads at the weekend (hopefully!); has a terrible record in majors and big events actually so maybe this really is a wild stab in the dark but he is still worth a look for me

jim FURYK > golden oldie time and mr furyk could well be worth a dabble at about 55 this week; has made 13 cuts of 15 this yr, 9 times making the top 25, 4 top 10s and of course a 4th in the US Open - super accurate, a great scrambler and putting really well; has the demeanour to prosper if it gets tough this week - looks a really solid shout and may just cap a superb career in style if he believes

top 10 market > 

john SENDEN > really has no chance of winning as just can't get the wins he deserves but has a great tidy game which should really suit here; can see him being up there and then fading but good top 10 possibility > 12.5 betfair

ben CURTIS > new improved version in recent times has rekindled interest in curtis who of course is a previous open winner; has the game for this course and being accurate, tidy and a good par4 scorer he should be up there > 9 betfair

justin ROSE > I remember being at lytham in 96 when he made his astonishing debut as a 17yr old - course should suit and he looks solid enough to get up amongst them > 3.55 is a tad short so may avoid this

ross FISHER > didn't play much until last few mths but has come along nicely and with  an excellent tee to green game he really should be looking to make a mark this week - fancy him to  sneak up into the top 10 > 8 on betfair

trading > 

can't resist doing some early trading and picking these in the hope they get off to flyers >

marc LEISHMAN > should do well on this links course and tough player > 550

richie RAMSAY > mainly a hunch, 500

pablo LARRAZABAL > on him already at 470 but 320 now after playing well last wk, real hit or miss player

ryo ISHIKAWA > talented although not really in form, if on song then could drop quickly, 500 

snedeker and fraser are others worth looking at...

players championship

off we go to sunny Florida this week and the PGA tour's own club at Ponte Vedra is our venue - the famous Sawgrass course is the host as usual for the Players Championship, a terrific event and one of the best on tour

hugely anticipated and with the world's top players all competing together for once - should be a great week of golf

this is a great course with the infamous 17th too which will no doubt provide some thrills and spills as always; scoring is actually quite good on this hole but obviously a misjudged club could mean a wet ball - overall, Sawgrass tends to favour accuracy off the tee, those who manage good GIR stats and you will need to scramble really well here or else you will get punished too - you can get away with some wayward shots but usually the triumphant golfers are those who have a straight hitting week and set up as many birdies as they can and don't pressure themselves in having to get it up and down too often

the way the players are scoring these days on tough courses however, it wouldn't surprise me to see 66s flying about and a winning score of at least -15 or so

my current world rankings with this week's event built in are as follows >

1 donald 12.00

2 westwood 15.00

3 mcilroy 15.17

4 mickelson 15.50

5 woods 17.00

6 stricker 24.33

7 oosthuizen 24.33

8 mahan 24.50

9 kaymer 25.50

10 scott 25.50

11 simpson 26.50

12 poulter 26.83

13 els 27.50

14 rose 29.00

15 haas 29.83

16 dufner 30.00

17 kuchar 30.00

18 hanson 30.67

19 bradley 31.17

20 watney 33.33

21 garcia 33.50

22 wilson 34.00

23 choi 34.50

24 fran molinari 35.17

the clear value if you think they will do well is on haas and wilson as they are big odds compared with their relative ranking although my value rating shows them to be nothing more than reasonable as their form has dipped a bit; my rankings show donald as the top-rated player here as his scrambling is the clincher - westy just above rory as his tee to green game is so good currently (both are fabulous in this respect) > this is where my rankings include a bias towards the current event amongst other factors

micko and woods don't attract me too much this week although woods just missed the cut last week and westy was 1 shot better at halfway and then ended top 5 after a good weekend's scoring - woods has missed just 8 career cuts although you wouldn't think it to see some of the analysis (digging!) and is still likely to find his game and make a lot of people look silly... too risky for me however as I thought it was just his putting to work on pre-masters but he seems to have lost his way with his swing again

the ones who interest me are good ball-strikers, good scramblers, hit plenty of greens and are in form... els, poulter, scott, molinari all tick some boxes and there are a few others at longer prices who do likewise such as moore, curtis, molder, etc

garcia has a good record here but I never back him and after his own admission at the masters he's even more of an 'avoid' for me especially at the price he is; mahan probably won't scramble well enough here although is two-time winner this yr and drives so well; bradley has gone off the boil and a few others have either had their good spell or aren't in good enough form to win  in a field like this

good cases for a lot of players however and the prices are superb with all these big names at the top pushing the odds out on decent players way down the list

picks >

luke DONALD > of the top 3 I really can't decide as I'm not sure about rory here, westy will be the pick from tee to green but can't sink them when it matters so I think donald will be my pick - this course can suit shorter hitters so no problem there, his superb short game may be the difference here and the odd shot saved over others could be the difference - I think he will also relish a chance to really make a statement as he faltered at the masters > his odds are higher than usual of course which helps and he managed T4 here last yr too... really expecting westy to go off all guns blazing and get the lead but then stutter and donald to sneak up and nick it, 15.5 betfair

adam SCOTT > could be another flatter to deceive week but he has a great record here and has won previously - is in really good consistent form and may relish being under the radar a bit currently.. 12 consecutive cuts on this tour, top 10 at augusta, stats are showing well for scoring, mid to long putting, GIR (8th) and so on > a lot more experienced these days obviously and seems to be ticking over nicely - I think he has the highest percentage of rounds under par here who have played a few times or more.. 40 betfair is attractive for a previous winner (2 top 10s also)

ian POULTER > odds out to 90 betfair now and that's good for poults who is confident, in good form again with recent good efforts (3rd at arnie palmer inv and 7th masters) and another who has played well here before (2nd in 09) - also loves the big tourneys and often impresses when up against it, not sure if he is likely to win but expect him to give a very good account and a confident shout for the top 10 for me

ernie ELS > another experienced player in great form, close to winning this year and playing well - might need a bit of luck but could be rolling back the years here if he can get the putter to work - usually plays well here and his accuracy should help him compete, 55 is tempting for the big easy who does like a pete dye course

ryan MOORE> hitting form nicely and big price at 120; often plays well for a few weeks so hoping to keep his current run going (ignoring a blowout 85 at houston in the 3rd round) - has been 4th 5th 8th in last 4 events.. usually makes the cut here so about time he made the frame

francesco MOLINARI > superb tee to green game, relaxed and in form with a great win last week (may have been favourite but still have to win) shooting 65 to win in style on a tough course - played here 2 yrs ago and managed a top 10 so why not... 75 is too high for a euro player who prospers over the pond it seems

going with 6 picks rather than dropping one, Crane and Kuchar are others who you could expect to do well.. add Mcilroy/Westy in and there's a top 10 for me although there may be a few from nowhere who do well this week - Oosty could easily have been in my picks and I may watch him and look to add during the tourney - Curtis also was close to being picked as backed him couple of times recently with success

there are plenty who came close to being picked > oosty and curtis as mentioned, styricker of course as well, watney showing a return to form, mcdowell who plays well here, kuchar who collects top 10s for fun but can't go that bit further oftne enough.. and so on...  going with the ones I feel are best primed however...

trading > some cracking prices for some not bad players > will be going with a few in the hope they drop rapidly after good starts..

COUCH @1000 like this price a lot for decent accurate driver who can putt... likes florida too so if he clicks he could be a decent trader, only won the one time on tour (06) and hasn't done much this year but worth a small dabble for me

MAYFAIR @ 950 quick swansong perhaps, decent scrambling will help

KIRK @ 850 too high price for decent player

MOLDER @ 310 stats tick a lot of boxes so another decent shout, game should really suit being accurate and good short scrambler

top 5 & 10 markets >

looking for some decent bets here as have started doing these markets recently with great success...

top 10 Moore at 9.2 for sure, Poulter 7.4 and Curtis 7.6, Els at 5.9 all look decent to me and could trade a lot lower (I like getting out of these when the market drops rapidly on them as they often go quite low)

wells fargo championship

off to North Carolina this week for the excellent WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP which was more recently known as the Wachovia Championship; this is where young Rory shot 64/62 at the weekend to win and truly announce himself on the world stage a couple of years ago

we have a really good field this week and with Quail Hollow being a tough course, this promises to be an excellent few days of golf

great to see the boy wonder, micko, tiger, westwood all competing and shame donald isn't there too but still a mouth-watering event - previous winners indicate that the cream usually rises to the top in this championship

this course demands everything, good accuracy off the tee as you will struggle if you aren't top 30 or so here, GIR as always or else you have to be a top scrambler, and the greens really find you out so good putters will more than most weeks prosper here

so a good all-round effort basically and hence the consistent top players do well - course has got a bit easier perhaps in recent yrs although this week may have longer rough apparently - mcilroy and westwood should find the greens well but their flat stick will determine their results hence rory being a few pts lower

tiger is a conundrum as ever - if he has his swing back then can he read the putts? augusta was a strange one from him as he looked to be back

micko is hard to call but is starting to look value when checking his record here and his results this season

young players can do well here too however although they do have to be either already good (rory) or of top potential

I have updated my rankings so will have a look at them although I have a few in mind to pick and one or two locals who may well put in extra effort being on home turf

my rankings >

1 mcilroy 10.33

2 woods 12.00

3 mickelson 14.67

4 westwood 18.83

5 mahan 22.50

6 simpson 24.83

7 haas 26.50

8 bradley 29.50

9 z johnson 31.67

10 furyk 34.17

11 van pelt 35.50

* this is the top 11 of my top 25 world ranked currently... thus my rankings which include course / event form as well as current form and mental strength etc indicate that these would be the finishing positions > what I then do is look for the prices and what I think and pick my golfers from there...

* mickelson hasn't won here but has a great consistent record, tiger can obviously win if he has regained his swing which looked great pre-masters, rory should be fav and is, and so on

> looking at betfair, haas looks over-priced at 55 but he has lost a bit of form; simpson likewise is a bit generous at 36 as being a wake forest grad and a member here you would expect him to do better than his form dictates

> furyk is just 25 on betfair but that is explained by his terrific record here - he is definitely worth looking at as the rankings show him to be good value performance wise but his price already reflects that

> outside of these top 11 here, my rankings show good weeks for huh, byrd, villegas so all of these are worth watching; byrd may have the 'new dad' feelgood factor which often can inspire/relax players; huh looks to have great potential and villegas is hinting at a return to form and this course should suit him

* local players of interest should be simpson & haas mentioned already and de jonge too

* outsiders could be karlsson (250) who has no form but can click, a great scrambler too and capable of suddenly shooting 66s.. ken duke (150) has been peppering the leaderboard recently too as has mathis (430) and will claxton is quite a talented player so worth watching (470)

picks >

think I will swerve rory and unsure of tiger so micko gets the vote at the top...

MICKELSON > terrific record here but no W on his record - could be about to change as he may well sneak through and win here if he can keep the wild holes away and sink a few - record and form are so good so he gets the nod for me at 13 betfair

FURYK > 25 isn't high but can't ignore his record and the fact he will probably plod around without any fuss - seems to be bang on with his game again and sinking putts that matter... a boring but solid pick and he should continue his terrific record here

SIMPSON > perhaps a chance for the local lad to shine in a decent field and regain a bit of the glow he gained last year when playing so well so regularly; top 15 last wk and has been top 10 a few times already this year, 36 b/f

CURTIS > having won 2 weeks ago and made the top 15 last wk I will ride the crest with ben and as he has a 2nd place finish here previously (proving amongst others that shorter hitters can do well here) he could well nip into the frame again as he is currently playing well with great stats for accuracy GIR etc - 95 betfair

BYRD > often back this guy and he knows how to win - may be off the boil with a few wks off but that new dad factor really can help! 90 is attractive for last year's runner-up - couple of top 10s this yr and played well at augusta

trading > definitely going to see how we go with De JONGE (sign of form last week and decent here previously too, hoping for a fast start at 130

DUKE as in good touch and again good here previously, 150

VILLEGAS 180 as he may be picking up again and his tee to green game is solid

not sure about karlsson so HUH at 100 completes the traders, talented young player and in form

top10 bets > HAAS at about 5 is decent as I think he will be up there, can also get HUH CURTIS and BYRD at about 8.2 to 9 which all attract

top 5 markets > furyk 5.9 and simpson 8.4 are appealing although smaller stakes for me