AFL > aussie rules doncha know...

AFL is the aussies rules game (australian football league) or 'footy' as it's called down under

much better game than it may seem at first and in some aussie cities, it's the biggest sport by a long way

anyway - it does throw up some great opportunities and the handicaps can sometimes be generous so there will be plenty of good bets to be had in the next 6 months

started at the weekend with the debut of the GIANTS (greater western sydney) and there initial game versus sydney swans was the curtain-raiser for the season... the bookies had them at about 1.9 on the handicap of +90.5pts which seemed fair given previous debut teams' performances.. this looked worth taking to me as I tweeted and the giants duly managed to hold sydney swans to under 70pts and thus the bet paid out handsomely

I will stick up my bets each week for all the games and see how we get on - obviously highlighting any really good value prices

trading the footie at 2-0

trading the footie when a game is 2-0... or 3-1.. or 4-2 even!

have watched the over-reaction of the market when a game goes from a 1 goal lead to a 2 goal margin and noticed there is plenty of room for making a good profit IF the losing team gets the next goal...

the price depends on the teams, the time left and so on but usually the market changes drastically as they think the team 2 down have no chance of getting the win > now this may well be true but it's the price movement we are working with here..

if the losing team get the next goal, the market swings back as dramatically which gives a great chance to trade out of your position and guarantee a profit

here is the thread post I put on OLBG a while back regarding this >

"just back a team that's just gone probably 2 goals behind and the price to back has shot up

example being spurs last wk > price went up to 80 as soon as arsenal went 2-0 up > didn't seem any way back for a poor spurs at HT but worth a punt based on the price

as soon as spurs scored, the price dropped back to about 6 > easy trading situation there (price subsequently went lower as spurs drew level and then odds-on when they went 3-2 up but can ignore those situations as just backing the original 2 goal price change)

so, back 10pts at 80 > possible profit 790, loss 10pts (stake)

price contracts after the goal to 6, Lay for 133.33pts > profit is now 123.33pts so a huge return whatever the outcome of the match - a terrific greening up scenario

> granted you need to get the bets on and hope for the market to form again before another goal etc

> this will often be a lost stake but if the return is big then you can afford a few losses - there are also other permutations or you could increase the stake and then hope for a really big return

you could always keep a bit running and in this case (spurs winning 3-2) the return would have been excellent

there are quite a few occasions where one team goes 2 up and the price increases a lot (more so when the big teams are leading of course) but any situation where the price is big enough it can warrant a back bet in the hope of the losing team notching next"

 last week saw another corker with qpr being 2-0 down to liverpool with not too much of the game remaining - their price was 750! backing this in the hope of the next goal being qpr's would have paid well as their price dropped hugely


not only that but they scored again as it happens so anyone staying in would have been laughing


and they went on to win 3-2 which is a rare turnaround but massively profitable obviously!


the main point here though is trading out after the losing team score the next goal > ie 2-0 becomes 2-1 and you take advantage of the big change in price from a team being anything from 8.0 to 80 or even 800 occasionally


the above example of qpr is rare price-wise but you can often get 80 as a price to back - if that next goal goes in it becomes 2-1 then the price may well drop to say 8.0 so you can trade (lay) and make a big profit (10 times stake basically)


thus >>


when a team goes 2-0 up, back the losing side at a big price


if losing team score next, trade out and make a decent profit


simple enough and worth tracking as it can reward well for little risk - you could equally lay the winning team once they are 2-0 up and then back them if it becomes 2-1


I'll try and check this but it's hard to back-track this sort of data - also needs to be live games in-running of course

trophee hassan (euro tour)

quick mention of my picks for the euro tour although I don't record these on here (shame as I had 40/1 winner quiros on one of my only previous posts for this tour!)

Matteo MANASSERO > backed him last wk and he was pipped to the win by a longshot, can happen - track should suit his accurate game and no reason not to back him again as he is class > 15 win bet (Betfair)

Ed MOLINARI > injury doubts aside this guy should be a much lower price (wish he was at bay hill this wk as would have backed him bigtime at a huge price) > 24th and 11th last 2 tourneys and coming nicely into form perhaps, twice a tour winner and so long as he keeps it on the fairway then he should feature for sure...big back for me this week as if he hits form then he will be hard to beat and I love the price > 44 on Betfair

Rhys DAVIES > won this event in 2010 on a different course and was 2nd here last yr at this venue - great event form and undoubtedly will be confident and capable of going well again here, 55 Betfair looks big

Robert ROCK > should have gained a lot of confidence from hi swin earlier this season and his trip to the US - odds just enough to tempt me as he may have stepped up to a new level now and thus will expect to do well here, 27 Betfair

Raphael JACQUELIN > one bad round last yr stopped him in his tracks and he was in prime form then for a few weeks - twice a tour winner and may be boosted by countryman quesne's win last wk - decent value at 55 here (Betfair) 

arnold palmer invitational (bay hill)

off to Bay Hill, Orlando this week for the ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL - a popular event and a decent field assembled for it too

this event used to be pretty much owned by tiger but things have changed a bit in the last couple of years eh? tiger is back here this year along with the in-form justin rose and big phil but there are plenty of others including the new kids on the block who are looking to take over and establish themselves as consistent tour winners rather than 'flash in the pans'

at least we have a tricky course for a change although I thought that last week and promptly watched pod shoot a 61

two weeks to go until the masters so good chance for some to sharpen their games up a bit and a chance for others to nick a tour win whilst the focus may be starting to concentrate on AUGUSTA

having backed rose for the past 3 weeks I am inclined to leave him this week although he plays ok here and has the game to do well being the sort of course that requires good ball-striking (don't they all?) and the ability to find these greens in set numbers

tiger apparently played ok at lake nona this week and seems to be fit and healthy but there are doubts of course; perhaps he will find his range on the greens and make his price look generous indeed - that would also affect the masters prices too of course as a tiger win here would really move the market out to longer odds 

this event/course usually requires experience over youthful enthusiasm and as such, ELS and FURYK both appear on the radar after their recent good efforts; if ernie had the confidence to sink a few he would be off the back of a win last week - his tee to green game is really impressive

GARCIA is another who is in good form and having picked up a couple of wins last yr he may well be in the mood to take a big tour win again but I have some doubts so will avoid him although he may well be a good back to lay or top 10 bet - popular no doubt but no value for me with his demons still in there I feel, much better value in some of the others in the market

TIGER has an awesome record here and is game is looking excellent bar his putting - he seems to be lagging putts well but is mis-reading too many from middle-distance - it may well click or else we are looking at someone who will never be as good as he was which means he may well win again but he won't be as dominant.. thus, the big question is what price is value with him? having seen him shoot that 62 recently and checking his record overall in the stuttering past 2 years, I think he is still likely to win and often and probably just needs to get some confidence on the greens and ensure his caddie is not hindering him in reading them

MICKO is having a good season but is not a great fan of this course judging by his results - he may well be happy to fine tune with Augusta in mind so I wouldn't be too keen on backing him here

have updated my rankings for this event and they are as follows >

my ranking / name / points

2 woods 14.67

7 rose 20.33

9 haas 21.67

10 simpson 23.67

11 watney 24.00

12 watson 24.33

13 mickelson 25.50

14 garcia26.83

15 mahan 27.00

17 choi 29.67

20 van pelt 30.83

> these reflect the form, ranking, previous event perf, etc etc and these are the players here this week of course

* the value here is woods as he is -6 to my combined current ranking v official world ranking

 haas, watney and van pelt also show up as value bets this week according to the rankings 

* further down my rankings, els comes up as value this week and overton and o'hair show quite positively too

> next I check the odds to see if there is real value ie the actual price is good compared with what my rankings expect - tiger looks to be reasonably good value here due to his record and his form etc but obviously there is a big question mark over him still; top 5 is likely but not much value

rose may have had his 3 week spell and be slightly off the boil although this course is another good one for him

haas is going great guns and worth looking at, watney is due an upturn as he is close (odds lengthening on him nicely)

simpson is still impressing with consistency but not quite doing enough yet perhaps

ok, here are this week's picks >

bubba WATSON > last time out a fortnight ago he probably should have won (lost the playoff) and was well placed in this here last yr too.. as he also tops the rankings in distance off the tee and GIR then you really have to expect a good performance here from bubba; might not be the best at holding a lead but he can shoot low and could well be in the mix on sunday and thus worth backing at 28 betfair

bo VAN PELT > has managed to make the cut each time he has played (7) and thus looks to be worth backing when bearing in mind his recent form; under the radar indeed and probably enjoying it accordingly 34 betfair is low perhaps but van pelt has finished top 10 in his last 4 strokeplay events and that is after finishing last season well with top 10s at both the deutsche and tour championships, followed by a win in malaysia at the asia pacific classic - he is ranked 3rd in strokes gained putting, 3rd in birdies, 4th allround and 5th in total driving on this year's tour too - impressive indeed and shows his current improved performance

ernie ELS > toss-up between him and furyk but the way he played tee to green last week and the fact he needs a result to qualify for the masters means ernie may well be worth getting behind here this week - tempted to lay if he does well so perhaps not an ideal fixed odds bet but the big easy is on the up game-wise and having won here twice he gets the nod, 44 betfair

zach JOHNSON > backed him last wk and worth another go here as he has a decent record and obviously the experience - game could suit too as the course rewards all players if they play sensibly, 50 betfair looks generous but understandable - really think he should step up again soon and want to be on him if so

final pick really is a toss-up between mahan, watney and simpson > odds-wise watney takes this although form-wise it should be mahan then simpson! WATNEY is close I feel and could improve here; 4th here 3 years ago and has good GIR stats - too good a player to be away from the sunday fun for long and worth a dabble at 40 (probably regret this as mahan or simpson do the biz!)

trading > nibbles at mcgirt 430, ishikawa and palmer both 230, love 240, stroud 170

top 10 market > bubba 3.2, garcia 3.8 els 5.2 interest me

bodugi > win £1,000!

good to see a fellow tipster/blogger win the big £1000 on bodugi yesterday!

great site where you can have a punt on horse meetings or football matches etc and try to win the pot and just for a small stake too

stick a fiver in and go for the smaller pots that may pay £50 or so or try for the jackpots like MarcOwenBanks (MOB) did yesterday when his 40/1 last gasp winner notched him the big payout!!!

have a look!

MOB's blog and his £1000 win!!!