zurich classic

off to louisiana this week for the tricky ZURICH CLASSIC, a tough test for a change for these lads as this course is long and has fairly tricky greens too; the rough isn't too bad though so still good chances for some low scoring but hopefully a truer test of decent ball-strikers and good putters

the prices don't really attract however and thus not much interest although there are a few who catch my eye at half-decent odds.. looking more to trade this week as good chance of some performances from triple-figure players perhaps

tentaive picks (ie small stakes probably!) >

peter HANSON > 55 is big enough for the perenially under-rated swede; in good form for a while and obviously put up a good effort at the masters - hopefully the jaunt to china won't affect him too much and he can do well here as his game is in good shape (on at 55 yesterday but 50 now)

hunter HAAS > could be a good longshot if he manages to avoid the killer 77s he often finds.. back into a bit of form and played ok here last year,  not a bad putter from long distance which should help here too - decent at 180 b/f (on at 180 although 150 or so now)

ernie ELS > 60 again looks decent for the big easy who may be relaxed again after his pursuit of a masters place - has been playing well and could be due a further good spell as has the long game for sure

last 2 pics are tentative as not too sure about them.. PIERCY at 100 is possible as he has the ability I feel and backed him last wk when he got close with a 65 but not close enough (dropped from 80 to 40 mid tourney), CHALMERS at 75 may not be long but has done well here and has a great neat game / also in better form and more confident after a good aussie summer

had thoughts about Crane (70) and Palmer (100) but will leave them for now

> not going with as big stakes as usual as this tournament has a real unknown feel about it and I will look daft when the top 5 is full of those at the top of the market probably! but happy with these mentioned above and definitely looking for good trades this week

trading > these all attract me for various reasons so will be looking for them to start well and provide some profit or a free bet at least

lamely 800 hunch bet purely! (now 870)
adams 450 always catches my eye and this price is big (down to 350 now)
mathis 310 off the back of a good effort last week (out to 380 now)
taylor 300 hunch bet and did well couple of wks back for me (230 now)
couch 450 should go well if he gets his (usually) good putting back on song (340 now)

* prices altered on b/f as I drafted this article yesterday

ballantine's championship (euro tour)

quick post about this week's BALLANTINE'S Championship in Korea - this is a superb course and should be a tough test - there looks to be some standout prices here although such a hard tour to call usually

not interested in scott at his price and couple near the top of the market are no value... expect a decent show from the korean players but the odds take that into account maybe too much already

anyway,

McGRANE > 80 is generous indeed for mcgrane who should enjoy this course and also any inclement weather as that massive victory in the storms a few yrs ago in this part of the world lingers on; finding some good form and expect him to go well - would back him at near half this price so happy indeed with 80 (13th here last yr)

DERKSEN > 85 on b/f and that's good enough for this guy who seems to really enjoy playing in asia and often appears from nowhere to do well - top 20 last wk and good chance at highish odds here, 13th here last yr also

FISHER > 90 on b/f looks interesting; not sure what his plans are as he didnt play much at all until the masters which was strange but still played ok there - his great tee to green game should mean he finds enough birdie opps here as it's a tough course for anyone wayward; risky bet as bit of unknown factor with so little golf be he was a consistently good player a couple of yrs back and may be worth a dabble - MC last wk with 71/72 but good warm-up for this one perhaps

DUBUISSON > young french lad hits it long and is in good form with an excellent consistent effort last wk (all four rounds in the 60s), has potential to be a decent player indeed and if he can continue that good run then he is worth an interest this wk at 55

final pick was between Kruger, Lowry, Noren, Coetzee and Olesen all of whom I have backed in recent times - might watch them all and see if I can get better price early in the event

trading-wise > expecting a good home show so have dabbled on j-k mo, s-h park, s-s hong, d-h kim all at around 3-400 and looking for quick drop and out

 

valero texas open

brief picks from me for this week's less than stellar event in texas... weak field and very open so plenty who could nick a maiden win here or surprise at decent odds - hard to call so smallish stakes this week... course is long and has undulating greens so no real bias at all other than for length and someone in form who can get it close enough to have a few birdie attempts - anyone short or wayward will consistently be relying on their short game to save par which is hard to do over 4 days

picks are >

PALMER > 40 isn't great for someone not in good form but have always liked Ryan Palmer as he can find a win from nowhere every now and again (3 tour wins 04 08 and 10, similar to kuchar who has 3 tour wins!) - texan lad so will presumably show up well as he has in the past in his home state; played ok at houston recently and being a good mid range putter he could find some form here and get in amongst them, happy to be on a proven winner at 40 

PIERCY > should do well on this course, won at reno-tahoe last yr which is similar so that bodes well, played well at houston and was 5th in the transitions, good long putter which will help here - decent shout at 80 

WALKER > local lad as lives here so no idea how often he may have plaed this track but should do better than usual with all the home town support - has had 3 top 10s already this yr but I'm wary that he did the same last yr before fading so hope he can maintain the form a bit longer this time > 55 Betfair is enough to tempt 

STADLER > in excellent recent form with 3 top 10s in last 4 events played, needs to improve like this or become a journeyman - overdue being in contention on a sunday and hope that recent run will continue here - good putter too, 50 on Betfair 

had few thoughts about Huh, Wagner and even Delaet (course suits but out of form) - WAGNER may get some interest from me as he is a proven winner and born in texas (another with 3 career wins) 

example of golf trading

Trading Example

had some requests for info on how to trade the golf so will run through an example and hopefully this will be of some help...

just using 1 player for now..

*******************************************************

ok...player A

* price is 200 and you back for 20pts

Betfair screen will show 3980.00 under his name (use the what if? option) and -20.00 under all other golfers

this means you have a potential profit of 3980pts if he wins (green) and a loss of 20pts (red) if he loses (ie any other player wins)

*******************************************************

* he plays well and price drops to 50

now you can Lay him for various amounts depending on how you want to go...

1/ Lay him for 20pts so clearing your stake - you now have a free bet as you have balanced your staking

if he wins, you would now win 3000pts > this is 3980 from the back bet above less your Lay bet of 980pts (20pts @ 49.0 = 980pt liability)

your screen will show 3000.00 under player A ingreen and 0.00 in green under all other players

so you have no loss risk and still have a big potential win on player A

2/ you could Lay him for 40pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 40pts so you are effectively 20pts in profit on your staking

if he wins, you would now win 2020pts > this is the original 3980pts back bet less your Lay bet of 1960pts (40pts @ 49.0 = 1960pt liability)

your screen would show 2020.00 in green under player A and 20.00 in green on all other players

so you have a green screen meaning profit on any result; a big win on player A still and small return on any other player

3/ you could Lay him for 70pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 70 making a profit on staking of 50pts

if he wins, you would now win 550pts > this is the original 3980pts back less your Lay bet of 3430pts (70pts @ 49.0 = 3430 liability)

your screen would show 550.00 under player A and 50.00 under all other players

so you have a green screen with profit on all outcomes; a decent win on player A and nice return on all other players

 *******************************************************

* this is if price drops to 50 which is 4 times less - if the price then dropped to say 20 you have a 'tenfold' drop.. these are obviously great as your options are the same but you can use bigger amounts

eg price of 20 to Lay now... assuming you didn't Lay off at 50, you can Lay for 200pts now and have a 180pt profit on any outcome at all

> your original 200pt back was 3980pts profit and your Lay now of 200pts @ 19.0 = 3800pt liability, so 3980 less 3800 = 180pt profit on your player A

> and your original 20pt back less your new 200pt Lay = 180pt profit on any other player

> ideal situation as you have a good profit (9 times your original stake!) whatever the result

 ******************************************************

* if the price drops more and down to say 5 then you are laughing as you can Lay for 800pts and have a green screen of 780pts on any result

> this is your 3980pt original back profit, less your new 3200pt Lay bet liability (800 @ 4.0 = 3200pts)

you now have a very good profit on any result (39 times your original stake)

 ******************************************************
 

this is an example of how you can avoid losing your stake, or make a profit on all outcomes - the levels depend on the prices and how much you Lay for

simple rules are >

* practice it until you know what you are doing

* use stakes you can afford to lose (ie your bank for the event) so there is no pressure or need to recoup meaning daft decisions

* decide if you want to make small profits all-round or have free bets and potential big profit on one player

* be flexible and assess all the relevant factors - don't get drawn into a fixed price to hit

>> and hopefully you will pick the right players and trade them to make good profits... this builds the bank up and then you can either use bigger stakes or select more players

golf trading tips (part 2)

When to back or lay?

With regard to setting a price target for trading >

* It depends on many factors so I don't really have a price in mind or a target, I look at various factors and decide accordingly... and then maybe Lay it all off for a free bet or green screen or whatever

Factors are >

what stage of the tourney is it?
what stake did I use?
how is he playing so far?
how is the course playing/weather forecast?
what is the score in relation to others?
does he have a chance of winning?
is he a good finisher or a weekend blowout type?
is his score good or bad compared with his play quality?

and so on...

Reasoning behind these points is as follows >

what stage of the tourney is it?

This makes a big difference on Betfair obviously - if it's round 1 and the player is a big outsider then the price will drop but not to low figures unless he has gone 4 clear etc - eg yesterday I got barnes at 500 and 510 (average 505) and he shot a 66 which was 2 behind the leader; very well placed and his price has dropped to 75 to Lay.. now that is instant small profit if I want it... being this early in the tourney tho' there is a likelihood that he will start over par in rd2 and price will fly up again

Thus, bearing in mind other factors, I would be thinking of laying this off a lot if not all as it's early in the event - if it was rd 3 then the price would be considerably lower and I would run more of it if not all

(some people think if you punt at big odds and they do well then why not run the whole lot and try and win big but that's fixed odds punting rather than trading and I think smaller regular profit is more sensible)

Example would be Palmer when he won - I backed him at 390 and he shot 65 opening day to lead, price dropped but only to 30 I think.. then he hung around the top of the board so he dropped to 8 or so by weekend, then he still played well and was up there so dropped to about 3.75 by final round as by then he had a very clear chance of winning - 18 holes to mess up rather than say 54 so price reflected that - he was no different scorewise to the field really from day 1 to 3 but the time left and potential win had changed drastically

what stake did I use?

If you use a very small stake then it's probably not worth trading too much - if you use a considerable stake then you have more options - I constantly strive to build the bank up so I can use a %age of it with no worries if I lose - this then means bigger stakes so you have more worthwhile options

eg £2 at 200 and price drops to 20 you aren't going to be hugely in profit laying off, but if it was £20 at 200 and the price drops to 20 then you could Lay off for £200 and have a £180 profit on any result or alternatively Lay for £100 and have a big potential profit on that player (£2080) and a nice £80 on everyone else

how is he playing so far?

Has he chipped in 3 times and sunk some 50-foot putts or is he playing really well and looking capable of going low again, that kind of thing

course/weather forecast?

Look at who else is due to play and when ie late starters in the day, has the wind died down, is it forecast for wind the next day, what are tee times, is the course drying out, are the greens getting roughened up etc all things that may affect certain players due to their type of shot or ability in certain conditions etc

score in relation to others?

If the fav is 4 shots clear then the Betfair price on your outsider just wont come down, it will climb... the winning likelihood is reduced massively... if there are a lot of players within a few shots then equally it's hard to get the price lower - if the field is strung out and some others at the top are lowly ranked then the price may well drop significantly as the market will view the winning chance as much higher

chance of winning?

Some players can win tournaments, Palmer I mentioned I backed because he has a record of winning occasionally from nowhere..others haven't - this doesn't mean they won't win but the chance is what I assess - I would rather back a player at 400 who has a win on his CV as this may mean a quicker drop in price if he plays well as the market realises the chance of a win is maybe higher than a maiden at 400

This also depends on whether I Lay on a sunday morning - if a player is in contention but I don't rate him winning then I will Lay and accept it if he wins... some though have the winning touch and I will probably run those

good finisher or weekend blowout?

As above really - some players see the winning line and choke, some go for it... some are excellent tournament starters but can't hold on for 4 rounds.. all to do with mental strength really and affects my Lay decision

good or bad score?

As above to how is he playing - is the score relatively good, or early in the day, or did he play averagely but perhaps get lucky with an eagle or two - was it a 'quality round' means did he hit a lot of GIR and have tap-ins or did he have some luck

I assess the field scores and hole scores quickly and see if it was a career best or just a good day at work - this means is there more in the tank and should I keep the bet open

*****************************************************

>> This may sound a lot but it is a fairly methodical way of assessing quickly the value of the price... I do like a price to drop by ten times ie 100 down to 10 or 400 down to 40 - this gives me ample room for profit all round and still keeping a big potential on the original bet

If I get lucky (Palmer at 390 winning) then I cash in all the way.. laying off regularly when the price is low and guaranteeing decent profit all round

If I have a decent start with someone who I'm not so confident with then I trade and accept I may be blowing a bigger win - this can work with short prices too ie a player may be 10 so I may back him to Lay at 5... simple and not too tricky if he is the sort to often trade lower than starting price

Someone like Quiros I will probably trade back and forth as he is more likely to go to 80 then back to 15!

So, in summary, there is no fixed price or target - I assess and react accordingly due to a number of factors.. looking for a few or even one of my trades each event to be a good 'un and to cover everything else - and then big wins come along to make life better