Trading Example
had some requests for info on how to trade the golf so will run through an example and hopefully this will be of some help...
just using 1 player for now..
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ok...player A
* price is 200 and you back for 20pts
Betfair screen will show 3980.00 under his name (use the what if? option) and -20.00 under all other golfers
this means you have a potential profit of
3980pts if he wins (green) and a loss of 20pts (red) if he loses (ie any
other player wins)
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* he plays well and price drops to 50
now you can Lay him for various amounts depending on how you want to go...
1/ Lay him for 20pts so clearing your stake - you now have a free bet as you have balanced your staking
if he wins, you would now win 3000pts > this is 3980 from the back bet above less your Lay bet of 980pts (20pts @ 49.0 = 980pt liability)
your screen will show 3000.00 under player A ingreen and 0.00 in green under all other players
so you have no loss risk and still have a big potential win on player A
2/ you could Lay him for 40pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 40pts so you are effectively 20pts in profit on your staking
if he wins, you would now win 2020pts > this is the original 3980pts back bet less your Lay bet of 1960pts (40pts @ 49.0 = 1960pt liability)
your screen would show 2020.00 in green under player A and 20.00 in green on all other players
so you have a green screen meaning profit on any result; a big win on player A still and small return on any other player
3/ you could Lay him for 70pts - this means you have backed for 20pts and laid for 70 making a profit on staking of 50pts
if he wins, you would now win 550pts > this is the original 3980pts back less your Lay bet of 3430pts (70pts @ 49.0 = 3430 liability)
your screen would show 550.00 under player A and 50.00 under all other players
so you have a green screen with profit on all outcomes; a decent win on player A and nice return on all other players
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* this is if price drops to 50 which is 4
times less - if the price then dropped to say 20 you have a 'tenfold'
drop.. these are obviously great as your options are the same but you
can use bigger amounts
eg price of 20 to Lay now... assuming you didn't Lay off at 50, you can Lay for 200pts now and have a 180pt profit on any outcome at all
> your original 200pt back was 3980pts profit and your Lay now of 200pts @ 19.0 = 3800pt liability, so 3980 less 3800 = 180pt profit on your player A
> and your original 20pt back less your new 200pt Lay = 180pt profit on any other player
> ideal situation as you have a good profit (9 times your original stake!) whatever the result
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* if the price drops more and down to say 5 then you are laughing as you can Lay for 800pts and have a green screen of 780pts on any result
> this is your 3980pt original back profit, less your new 3200pt Lay bet liability (800 @ 4.0 = 3200pts)
you now have a very good profit on any result (39 times your original stake)
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this is an example of how you can avoid losing your stake, or make a
profit on all outcomes - the levels depend on the prices and how much
you Lay for
simple rules are >
* practice it until you know what you are doing
* use stakes you can afford to lose (ie your bank for the event) so
there is no pressure or need to recoup meaning daft decisions
* decide if you want to make small profits all-round or have free bets and potential big profit on one player
* be flexible and assess all the relevant factors - don't get drawn into
a fixed price to hit
>> and hopefully you will pick the right players and trade them to
make good profits... this builds the bank up and then you can either
use bigger stakes or select more players
When to back or lay?
With regard to setting a price target for trading >
* It depends on many factors so I don't really have a price in mind or a
target, I look at various factors and decide accordingly... and then
maybe Lay it all off for a free bet or green screen or whatever
Factors are >
what stage of the tourney is it?
what stake did I use?
how is he playing so far?
how is the course playing/weather forecast?
what is the score in relation to others?
does he have a chance of winning?
is he a good finisher or a weekend blowout type?
is his score good or bad compared with his play quality?
and so on...
Reasoning behind these points is as follows >
what stage of the tourney is it?
This makes a big difference on Betfair
obviously - if it's round 1 and the player is a big outsider then the
price will drop but not to low figures unless he has gone 4 clear etc -
eg yesterday I got barnes at 500 and 510 (average 505) and he shot a 66
which was 2 behind the leader; very well placed and his price has
dropped to 75 to Lay..
now that is instant small profit if I want it... being this early in
the tourney tho' there is a likelihood that he will start over par in
rd2 and price will fly up again
Thus, bearing in mind other factors, I would be thinking of laying this
off a lot if not all as it's early in the event - if it was rd 3 then
the price would be considerably lower and I would run more of it if not
all
(some people think if you punt at big odds and they do well then why not
run the whole lot and try and win big but that's fixed odds punting
rather than trading and I think smaller regular profit is more sensible)
Example would be Palmer when he won - I backed him at 390 and he shot 65
opening day to lead, price dropped but only to 30 I think.. then he
hung around the top of the board so he dropped to 8 or so by weekend,
then he still played well and was up there so dropped to about 3.75 by
final round as by then he had a very clear chance of winning - 18 holes
to mess up rather than say 54 so price reflected that - he was no
different scorewise to the field really from day 1 to 3 but the time
left and potential win had changed drastically
what stake did I use?
If you use a very small stake then it's probably not worth trading too
much - if you use a considerable stake then you have more options - I
constantly strive to build the bank up so I can use a %age of it with no
worries if I lose - this then means bigger stakes so you have more
worthwhile options
eg £2 at 200 and price drops to 20 you aren't going to be hugely in
profit laying off, but if it was £20 at 200 and the price drops to 20
then you could Lay off for £200 and have a £180 profit on any result or alternatively Lay for £100 and have a big potential profit on that player (£2080) and a nice £80 on everyone else
how is he playing so far?
Has he chipped in 3 times and sunk some 50-foot putts or is he playing
really well and looking capable of going low again, that kind of thing
course/weather forecast?
Look at who else is due to play and when ie late starters in the day,
has the wind died down, is it forecast for wind the next day, what are
tee times, is the course drying out, are the greens getting roughened up
etc all things that may affect certain players due to their type of
shot or ability in certain conditions etc
score in relation to others?
If the fav is 4 shots clear then the Betfair
price on your outsider just wont come down, it will climb... the
winning likelihood is reduced massively... if there are a lot of players
within a few shots then equally it's hard to get the price lower - if
the field is strung out and some others at the top are lowly ranked then
the price may well drop significantly as the market will view the
winning chance as much higher
chance of winning?
Some players can win tournaments, Palmer I mentioned I backed because he
has a record of winning occasionally from nowhere..others haven't -
this doesn't mean they won't win but the chance is what I assess - I
would rather back a player at 400 who has a win on his CV as this may
mean a quicker drop in price if he plays well as the market realises the
chance of a win is maybe higher than a maiden at 400
This also depends on whether I Lay on a sunday morning - if a player is in contention but I don't rate him winning then I will Lay and accept it if he wins... some though have the winning touch and I will probably run those
good finisher or weekend blowout?
As above really - some players see the winning line and choke, some go
for it... some are excellent tournament starters but can't hold on for 4
rounds.. all to do with mental strength really and affects my Lay decision
good or bad score?
As above to how is he playing - is the score relatively good, or early
in the day, or did he play averagely but perhaps get lucky with an eagle
or two - was it a 'quality round' means did he hit a lot of GIR and
have tap-ins or did he have some luck
I assess the field scores and hole scores quickly and see if it was a
career best or just a good day at work - this means is there more in the
tank and should I keep the bet open
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>> This may sound a lot but it is a fairly methodical way of
assessing quickly the value of the price... I do like a price to drop by
ten times ie 100 down to 10 or 400 down to 40 - this gives me ample
room for profit all round and still keeping a big potential on the
original bet
If I get lucky (Palmer at 390 winning) then I cash in all the way..
laying off regularly when the price is low and guaranteeing decent
profit all round
If I have a decent start with someone who I'm not so confident with then
I trade and accept I may be blowing a bigger win - this can work with
short prices too ie a player may be 10 so I may back him to Lay at 5... simple and not too tricky if he is the sort to often trade lower than starting price
Someone like Quiros I will probably trade back and forth as he is more likely to go to 80 then back to 15!
So, in summary, there is no fixed price or target - I assess and react
accordingly due to a number of factors.. looking for a few or even one
of my trades each event to be a good 'un and to cover everything else -
and then big wins come along to make life better
Golf Trading
* thought I would post an article I wrote on OLBG a while back now about golf trading
Pre-Tournament >
Prices usually form around Monday...
Betfair
prices aren't great on Monday (often have a lot of 200 prices that will
start the tourney at 500 etc) but by Tuesday they have usually firmed
up to the correct price
You may get some movement based on well-known tipsters or forums - their picks can affect the prices sometimes
Picking pre-event is up to your knowledge mainly
I use a ratings system which is fairly simple >
I take the player's ranking and then add my own ratings for current
form, event form, stats, mental ability, X factor (my personal rating of
that player) and then see how my rankings compare... I use a weighted
points system to reflect the different criteria strength
the better the difference in my ranking to the official ranking is a good indicator for me of a 'value' bet.. not always someone who will win but one that has a better chance than the market will probably price him at
Then I look to see if the price is good for me... in a weak field it
probably won't be as there will be a lot of players at lowish prices - in a strong field (tiger, micko, etc) you will get much higher prices on
the majority of the field and that's where the value v price comes in and I select my picks
You can pick players to win or to trade > I do both but tend to run
anyone I back at say 70.. there is a big payout if they win... I may Lay off but it's all about judgment and being flexible
Players at say 250 I will usually trade as a big win possibility is tempting but quite rare and I prefer to Lay off and get a green screen... in a good week I may pick 5 for trading and perhaps Lay off 4 early on and have a really good profit all-round..
I can then go back in on Saturday and back a few more who may win in the
knowledge I'm playing with profit; then I can make even more... if it
goes wrong early then you are only limited to your original stakes (I
don't tend to Lay pre-tourney)
Tips >
Pick your own selections (devising your own ratings is a good idea, or
at least having a list of in-form players, ones with good event or
course form, etc)
Then maybe check others tips / comments etc to see if you have missed anything or agree with someone else's bet
Then pick your final selections after checking prices etc and check staking plan
Trading >
If your selection drops then you can always trade pre-event
If it drifts you can either Lay off for small loss (why?!) or back some more if you have the funds.. if it was good before its better now eh?!
In Running (IR) >
If the price drops > either Lay off for free bet or Lay off for a profit
Eg
* Player A is at 300 for 20pts = 5980.00 profit
> Price drops to 100 IR
* Lay for 20pts = 1980 liability
> you have a free bet on player A with potential profit of 3800pts (4000 less 5% comm)
Or
* Lay for 60pts = 5940 liability
> you have a profit of 38pts on any outcome (5980-5940, less 5% commission)
So, if you manage a few good trades like this you have a very nice
profit all-round > of course you could run the price drop and see what's what.. if the price drops to say 30 from 300 then you have the lovely
situation where you can Lay off some for profit and keep some for the big win
Eg
* 20pt back at 300 = 5980 profit
> Price drops to 30
* Lay 100pts at 30 = 2900 liability
This means you have a profit of 80pts on any other player (pre commission) and still have a 3080 profit bet on player A
Playoffs
Playoffs can be good for quick trading > the prices move rapidly however
so there is a massive advantage to anyone with quick pictures; there
are delays with most broadcasters so you will often see the market move
before you see it with your own eyes - this means trouble, the only way
around this really is to 'predict' the result of a shot, or to watch for 'over-reactions'
Predicting
Obviously this is guesswork; however, by watching the play you can make reasoned judgements
is player A has holing everything - is he due to miss a putt perhaps?
What's he like on 5 footers under pressure?
Is it an uphill straight putt or a tricky downhiller with a break?
If bunkered, whats the lie like ? what's his scrambling ability? Etc
And so on, good judgement here can get the right result maybe 70% of the
time in which case you are making a profit on level staking
Over-Reactions
The difference between the shots of two players can make a price drop instantly and by a lot..
ie player A is 25 feet away and player B hits it to 4 feet > the
price on B will drop massively, then people will see a different camera
angle perhaps or realise it's not such a cert and the price will
increase a bit
so, if player B is 1.9 and hits it to 4 feet, the price may go to 1.2 then settle at 1.3 a few moments later
the trick is to Lay at 1.2 and then buy back in; he may well miss the putt anyway so the 1.2 could be a winning Lay but it's all down to managing your stake and your judgement
Equally, player A may be 1.9 and go to 3.3 when player B hits his
approach close, then player A price may contract slightly as there are
punters who will think he could make the 25 footer and they like the 3.3
price..
again, buy at 3.3 and Lay off at 3.2 perhaps; small margins but trading winners before the putts have been taken
example >
* player A price 1.9 > hits approach close
> Lay 1.2 for 250pts (liability 50pts)
* price settles back at 1.3 > buy 1.3 for 230.76pts (profit of 69.23)
if this works then you have a quick profit of 19.23 whatever
if the price only drifts to 1.25 then you back for 240 and have a guaranteed 10pts profit whatever
NB >
you have to have your stakes worked out ready to go in these cases..
the downside is you don't get your back bet on and you lose your 50pt liability..
this example shows how you can make either 18.27 (19.23 less 5% comm so
18.27 actual return) on a price drift of 1.2 to 1.3 or 9.50 (10 less 5%
comm) on a price drift of 1.2 to just 1.25
a profit of 36.5% or 19%
NB > if the price drops to 1.1 you can still back it for 250pts (your original stake) and halve your potential loss (50pt liability)
This basically means playing the price movement as opposed to following
the market which is fairly predictable dependent on the shot
Pre-Tourney Assessments
it's always worth checking any players form in previous events on a particular course... or in the event in previous years
make sure it's the same course as events are hosted on different courses sometimes..
some players really like certain courses - could be because it suits
their game - some are short accurate hitters who like courses under
7,000 yards and play good target golf (ie short inland american courses) where you hit from A to B and rely on a hot putter
others like links courses where you often have to play the wind and shape shots - and quite often have to be a very good lag putter
some courses favour players who tend to draw the ball (augusta used to
but has changed a fair bit in recent yrs) and others are set up more for
faders of the ball
then you look at those who putt well on certain greens -
there are plenty of variations in the speed let alone the type of grass
- some players grow up on links courses so play well on those slick
greens as opposed to watered inland courses
so the course itself will favour certain entrants more than others -
hence some pros having terrific records in some tour events but not
really showing up in others
living near the course is usually helpful too
so weigh up these factors too when trading... sometimes these factors
will mean the price has been over-compensated for - and the actual
golfer isnt in very good form - then he may become a good Lay bet as his price has dropped too low
i tend to include the event/course in my own rankings but weight the
current form and X factor in too so there is a bias towards recent form
more than course form - and then add in the usual stats form too... good
indicators although not guaranteed
sometimes you get all factors pointing towards a very good bet risk - that's where you have to judge the price in your own eyes
eg you may really rate a player's form both current and in an event -
you then look at competition and decide he should be a 10/1 shot - if
his price is 17.0 he should be good value and worth backing - if he is
8/1 he may well win but is he value?
the trading trick is to assess and bet accordingly
you might back at 17.0 and have a Lay in place if it gets under 11.0 - or you may run it and go for full profit on a win
you may ignore the price if it's 8.0 and watch to see if it hits your asessment of 12.0 - or you may Lay it 8.0 thinking it's too low and then plan to back it at above 11.0 (your assessment)
but
Round 1 & 2 Trading
always watch the leaderboard - if
good players go out early and make birdies you often get a drift on
players who haven't started - the market tends to think they are less
likely to make equivalent birdies and thus they drift - this is a good
time to back
if they then start with birdies the price drops rapidly as the market
assume they will go on and score really well.. so the first few holes
are fairly important in a player's round
then > watch for streaky
players..some players often shoot -5 in 6 holes... they hit a streak of
hot putting... these players quite often rip a course up for a
while..going -7 or 8 by 13 holes - then they fall back with a bogey or
two as it's hard to maintain that form.. if you time it right you can
back during the streak.. then Lay off when they stop getting birdies
also keep an eye on weather forecasts
as there is a big difference on thurs/friday between starting at 7am or
3pm... if poor weather is forecast the prices on late starters can
drift
tricky to get right but very pleasing when you do - just a matter of
staying ahead of the game really and using all the info available
tips >
* check course and event form
* check recent form
* assess price
* watch weather
* check tee times
* check leaderboard pre starting
> if you want to trade a lot then dont get too greedy - decide where you want to get out if you plan to Lay after backing at higher price.... as jimmy mentioned above he settles for a small but regular profit
> if you get lucky and your player's price drops massively, then you have that lovely position of being able to Lay off some and still have a big profit on the original bet
Price differences
you can get some big differences in trading prices... sometimes you might see a back at 20.0 and Lay at 30.0
(this happens a lot at higher prices..you may have a 200 back and a 500 Lay)
nothing to stop you trying to get a match at 28.0 or so... then if you
were the only back bet at that price, you may see the 30.0 Lay price drop to 22.0 as the market tightens up that player's price
eg 20.0 back, 30.0 Lay > you offer 28.0 and it gets taken... then the Lay drops from 30.0 to 22.0
(if the player plays a good shot it may well be a back bet of 16.0 and the Lay drops to 18.0)
you can then Lay at 22.0 for a quick small return or a free bet
