open championship

Off to Sandwich in Kent for the Open Championship which is held at Royal St Georges - last here in 2003 when Ben Curtis took advantage of Thomas Bjorn's late dropped shots to pinch an unlikely win - good links course but one which is characterized by plenty of blind shots, constantly changing winds as the holes aren't the traditional 9 out along the coast and 9 back - luck will play a big part here as you need the kind kicks and bounces or else will get penalised - probably one of the most important shots will be the approaches as the rough isn't too severe for driving but you do need to find a decent position on the green to give yourself a birdie chance as there will be quite a few bogeys especially if it gets breezy

Anyway, here's my picks for this week's major >

Rob KARLSSON > this is a massive hunch bet really although justifiable.. thought about him previously for this but a few days ago I had a strong feeling and backed him accordingly at 100 on betfair (now 85) – record-wise he did nothing  in this until recent yrs; 2008 was 7^th, skipped 09 due to injury, 14^th last yr so a couple of decent efforts in last couple of attempts

Major-wise in 2008 he was 4^th, 7^th, 8^th, 20^th so a cracking consistent effort before the eye problems etc that stopped his career – could be on the way back as last yr he had two top 20s in majors and then won the R2D championship at the end of the year which was a superb effort

In the US this yr he has had a 5^th and also 2^nd at St Jude where he repeated his result from the yr before... thus he does seem to do well on certain tracks and being a good links player I have no qualms with picking him this wk... could be a blowout of course but hopefully he will go well; picks and chooses a bit these days but he is a class act

Has a good record on this tour having won 11 times – overdue winning a major and may be another 40yr old plus who comes good in this age decade – he can hit it long and although he sprays it about a bit that won’t harm him here too much... he is a terrific scrambler and great putter and if he gets his game going he could make those odds look daft

Steve STRICKER > phenomenal form and confident these days too.. also has 11 tour wins and is overdue a major – winning last wk might be a hindrance in some eyes but he’s in prime form, confident, makes stacks of birdies, great putter – absolutely no reason not to back him and I got on him last Sunday at 46 on betfair (now 38)

I backed him for the masters as everything was identical pre event (stats form etc) and he put in an good effort (11^th) but with a couple of top 10s in this event in last 4 visits I hope he will go better here

2 wins in last 3 tour events in US, last 8 have all been top 20 – top of the stats for birdies, strokes gained, scrambling, scoring average, par4s, putting 5-10’, putting 5-15’ etc etc > incredible stats and cannot believe he was 46 to back.. terrific value

Nick WATNEY > the other top US player for me – backed him consistently along with SS and they have been great for backers this yr... confidence is really showing now and he may well step up to the next level here with a commanding performance

2 wins this yr too, 8 top 10s, terrific stats too and has a decent record when coming over for this event with 7^th last yr the best in 3 attempts – can see him lurking this wk then coming through to prominence on Sunday and another who looks really good value as all the attention is on the home-based golfers

Lee WESTWOOD > extremely good recent record in this event and another who is overdue winning a major (one of them has got to pick one up soon!) – may well be itching more than usual after seeing others around him win and wanting that no 1 ranking back etc... more than capable, sounds confident and with a  4^th 3^rd and 2^nd in this will want the 1^st adding for sure... has 21 career wins on this tour so needs that major on his CV

Getting a reputation for being a bridesmaid in flagship events with 12 top 3s in last 4 yrs and just the 1 win (R2D) > terrific consistent performance in major sin recent yrs but can’t quite get over that line due to the odd crucial missed putt or others nipping in with career best efforts, can see him winning this if he is a couple of groups back on Sunday and then posts an early 66 or so and wins that way

Alvaro QUIROS > always back my fav golfer and love the 130 available > huge distance means he should be able to attack some pins and create birdie chances – when on song he has a terrific short game and if he starts sinking putts then look out; hits a lot of greens considering how wayward he can be off the tee but the rough shouldn’t be too penal this wk so may be able to criss-cross a few fairways and still nail some birdies – if he gets a few decent bounces then he can really take advantage and hope he does as am expecting him to step up to the next level fairly soon in his career although he time on his side of course

Results haven’t been great but can look back at an 11^th in this last yr and also has 5 wins on tour already so knows how to get it done; he won’t be holding back anyway

Angel CABRERA > hasn’t got much of a record in this event but has won 2 majors of course – also has some great stats (hits it long and hits a lot of greens too, good putter) and comes here in good touch as he posted a nice 3^rd for me last week in Scotland

Probably hit or miss as he may well blow out totally or be top 10... he has managed 2 top 10s in this in his career but has a lot of MCs too > like the odds though as experience will probably help here – on him at 100 on betfair already and looking for  a good start hopefully to trade but may run it if he is really firing as he has the mental strength needed to close one of these out

Already backed these guys and have quite a few trades on the go too – backed most of them last weekend as the prices were good and wanted to get ahead of decent results or tipsters bringing the prices down a bit – my tips in majors are usually pretty rubbish so will be looking to trade a lot and get a profit on the week that way!

Also, can’t help feeling that Micko will feature although form/record in this aren’t good.. not often you see him near 50s for a major

Kuchar looks a reasonable shout for a top 10 (as he does most wks) as he is so consistent but can’t see him winning..  P Hanson is good value at 100 (toss up between him and Cabrera for my last pick)

Trades > have backed Dyson 240, Love 250, Coetzee 470 (now 290!), Jacquelin 500, Brier 750 (now 900 oops), Barnes 470 (now 210!)

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more winners..

never found time to post up last week's tips but on the euro tour I picked LARRAZABAL at 40/1 (48 betfair) and he duly won - also tipped GOOSEN who was placed and picked SLATTERY too in my 5 picks and he managed to feature really well throughout and traded down to 20 odd after backing him at 310.. so a very profitable week but can't include the profits on here as I didn't post them up!

us open

Time for the 2nd major of the season as we move on to Bethesda in Maryland and the Congressional course for the US Open

No doubt there will be plenty of discussion about the course due to the changes made let alone the fact that the US Open is traditionally a tough challenge for all

Congressional Blue Course > has been changed a lot since last time the US Open was played here ('97) and is now a par 71 as they have made the 18th into the 10th hole and made the 6th a par 5 not 4; there are 3 par5s on the course and they are tough - the 9th is a maximum 636 yards! the overall course length is a whopping 7,570 odd yards although they will probably move the tees about a bit each day

The course is tree-lined, fairways aren't that wide at all and many slope away and there are plenty of well-positioned bunkers at driving distance - add to that a lot of bunkers protecting greens, some water and then finally, extremely testing sloped highly-contoured greens and you have a really tough test - bit of a change from the easy courses that have featured recently on the US tour

Looks like the sort of course that you can be playing well on and then easily make a double bogey - players who get frustrated will probably explode so you will need to be accurate off the tee, reasonably long too and then also accurate with your approaches or you will find sand regularly or get a lot of practice with your scrambling.. if you fire at the pins you may score well but if you are slightly out then the greens will punish you as a lot of them have big ridges and run-off areas so expect a lot of 3 putts too

There are some extremely difficult holes - the par3s look like the sort you will happy to 'make par and move on'; the par5s do offer a birdie opp but mainly from those laying up and hitting close with short irons for their 3rd

The 11th is a 490 yard par 4 with a sloping tight fairway and a stream all along the hole... can see some carnage on that hole - the new 18th (old 17th) is a great hole.. over 500 yards, tree-lined and playing into a green mostly surrounded by water, should be fun!

I'm sure there will be plenty of gnashing from the players about being a yard out and suffering too much (ie just missing the right spot on the green etc) but this is a truly tough test and it should be too as in recent years players have been mangling some courses due to the distances they hit - the winner will be the most consistent, calm and accurate player this week and it's unlikely to benefit anyone who sprays it about - very good scramblers may save themselves a few shots but expect some high scores

I guess the winner will be the one who hits the ball well, straight and fairly long, probably isn't the best in GIR as hard to keep the ball on the greens here (maybe has a higher ball flight), manages to sink a few outrageous putts or chip in a few times as well as being a good lag putter and gets some luck - this usually brings the best players to the fore although there may be the odd unknown name up there early on

Westwood, Donald and Kaymer are playing together for the opening two rounds which should be interesting - the bookies generally have about 11 players under 33/1 so it looks open from that point of view - there are some very inform players (with recent wins) alongside the usual suspects bar Tiger and a bunch of seeming no-hopers but recent major winners have been decent prices remember! 

steve STRICKER > class act, recent winner, great stats.. can't really find a reason not to back him this week - hasn't got much of a record in majors but has won consistently on tour in the past few yrs and has new found confidence in recent yrs; will give you a good run for your money for sure as he nails so many birdies and has such a good all-round game - the one low stat is driving distance but that wont be too much fo a problem here for him

a few stats >

has made 33 consecutive cuts (best on tour)
10 events this year and 8 top 25s, 4 top 10s, 1 win
this yr, ranked 1 in putting from 5-15'
ranked top 5 in GIR %age for all of under 125,100,75 yds
ranked 1 in approaches from 50-125 yds
ranked 1 in par 4 performance
ranked 3 in scrambling
ranked 10 in total putting
ranked 5 in putting (strokes gained)
ranked 4 in birdie average
ranked 1 in actual scoring avg
ranked 2 in birdie conversion
ranked 4 in allround ranking
ranked 3 in scrambling from the rough

ok..boring I know but impressive to say the least and ideal for here, has made the top 10 in 24 of last 51 events which is incredibly consistent (last 3yrs) and is only player to make the playoffs on tour each of the 4 yrs and make every cut - should be a good shout for top 10 minimum and a very good call for winning here - stats dont mean much in majors for sure but he was 11th at Augusta and is coming off a win at the Memorial last time out

currently 25/1 which looks value to me (26 Betfair) for SS who is accurate, scrambles well, putts great and can make birdies; cool and calm and looks a decent bet

dustin JOHNSON > due some luck in this I guess after his exploits previously, shooting an 82 last yr in the final round and still finished 8th - followed that with 14th in the Open and 5th at the US PGA where he suffered again on the final day with a 2 shot penalty

stats wise in contrast to Stricker he is long off the tee of course but not great at scrambling or putting this yr - was 20th then 4th last 2 events which is a good form line for me and he seems to be focused on the bigger events now - hard to believe he has only been on tour for 3 yrs plus as he has won 4 times already and seems to have been about a while.. beat kaymer handsomely in the ryder cup which impressed me.. backed him a fair bit and think he could go well again here as he has ability galore and should have learned a lot from previous events

available at 30/1 currently (27 Betfair)

gary WOODLAND > hits it miles and has generally good all-round game although could sink a few more short putts perhaps - has improved leaps and bounds this yr and has posted his first tour win too - has debuted well and seems to have a bit of bottle as well.. has cracked the world top 50 now and is a rising star it seems... might be big ask to do well here although made top 25 at the masters - has notched 5 top10s in 10 made cuts this yr..

100/1 isnt over generous but he skipped last wk in order to prepare for this wk as he had already qualified so hope he is duly focused

matteo MANASSERO > young superstar in the making... already picked up two euro tour wins since turning pro last yr at 17! has 4 top 10s in last 5 events... finished in top 15 at the Open in 2009 at 16 yrs of age! made cut at the masters last yr too and has already got a good looking golf CV; not too worried about his lack of length as he is so good at hittin ggreens and can putt - may well defy logic and do well here as this kid is the real deal - only 70/1 (80 Betfair) which is testament to his ability

kevin STREELMAN > nice longshot for me having backed him a bit recently - currently 299 with Unibet which makes the 80/1 with Stan James a bit stingy eh... has made last 6 cuts and finished 19th 10th 7th so form line is very promising.. outsider for sure but could go well as he can putt well... couple of decent top 5s at the barclays in last two yrs and also played well at the tour championship last yr..

stats are ok but I've always thought he could go on and do better and maybe there is a big performance waiting to happen.. hopefully so at these odds!

camilo VILLEGAS > still striving to find the form of 2008 when he was so good cuminating in a terrific performance thru the playoffs - has been all over the show this yr but was showing good signs at the heritage when he opened up 66 68; was 3rd last wk which was his best result in ages and a good nudge towards this week - such a good long iron game and could well find some nice spots on these greens and give himself a chance

maybe a bit of a lottery but he could either be top 5 or miss the cut by a mile.. 125/1 is worth a punt for me (113 Betfair)